今日 Ultima Markets 为您带来了美联储内部分歧与 12 月降息前景的深度解析。 关键词：美联储、内部分歧、12 月降息、滞胀、鹰鸽之争、利率政策、经济数据 简介：聚焦美联储内部鹰鸽两派围绕降息的激烈博弈，解析滞胀背景下通胀与劳动力市场的核心矛盾， 探讨数据真空与政策分歧对利率路径的影响，助您把握降息预期波动中的市场机遇与风险。 美国降息路径因美联储内部出现的新分歧而变得不明朗，这种分歧在美联储主席鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）近八年的任期内几乎没有先例。 美联储官员对于持续通胀与劳动力市场疲软中哪一项构成更大威胁存在分歧。即使官方经济数据恢复发 布，可能也无法弥合这些分歧。 这一裂痕使不到两个月前看起来可行的降息计划变得复杂，不过投资者们仍认为，美联储在下次政策会 议上降息的可能性仍然大于不降息的可能性。 9月份，当政策制定者同意降息0.25个百分点时，19名美联储官员中有10人（占微弱多数）初步预计在 10月和12月会继续降息。若实现连续三次会议降息，将与鲍威尔去年和2019年所做的下调利率的节奏如 出一辙。 但一部分鹰派官员对进一步降息的必要性提出质疑。在美联储官员们于10月底再次降息 ...

Core Viewpoint - The upcoming release of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting minutes is expected to provide insights into the internal debates and future policy directions, particularly regarding interest rate cuts amid increasing political pressure [1] Group 1 - The Federal Reserve's "hawkish-dovish" debate is intensifying under ongoing political pressure [1] - The July meeting minutes will reveal the underlying tensions behind two dissenting votes, which may influence future interest rate decisions [1] - The timing of the release is set for 2 AM, August 20, indicating a significant moment for market participants [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the transition phase of monetary policy approaching a "turning point," indicating a complex interplay between hawkish and dovish stances within the Federal Reserve [1][3]. Summary by Sections Federal Reserve Meeting Insights - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds target rate at 4.25%-4.50%, marking the fifth consecutive meeting without a rate change [2][5]. - The meeting revealed internal dissent with two members advocating for a 25 basis point rate cut, highlighting increasing divisions within the FOMC [2][6]. - The PCE price index was reported at 2.7%, above the 2% target, while the GDP growth rate for the first half of the year was only 1.2%, significantly lower than the previous year's 2.5% [4][12]. Market Reactions - Following the Fed's decision, international gold prices fell to $3327 per ounce, while the dollar index rose to 99.82 [2][7]. - The market's perception of the Fed's stance was mixed, with some analysts interpreting Powell's comments as hawkish despite the dovish tone of the statement [7][10]. Economic Outlook and Predictions - Analysts predict that the Fed will remain cautious due to rising inflation, with potential rate cuts expected later in the year, particularly in December [10][11]. - The uncertainty surrounding trade policies and their impact on inflation may lead the Fed to maintain higher rates for an extended period [11][12]. - The latest employment data showed a lower-than-expected increase in non-farm payrolls, raising concerns about economic slowdown and increasing rate cut expectations [13]. Global Market Implications - The article suggests that a potential easing of monetary policy could enhance liquidity in global capital markets, benefiting various asset classes including equities and precious metals [12]. - The dynamics of the Fed's policy decisions are expected to create higher volatility in the markets, necessitating flexible asset allocation strategies [13].

不降息！这次"表稳里动"的美联储议息会议，似乎让资产价格"受惊"了。 会后，国际黄金价格跌至3327美元/盎司，美元指数升至99.82，10年期美债收益率升至4.37%，2年期美债收益率飙升至3.93%，美股则涨跌不一。 当地时间7月30日，美联储联邦公开市场委员会（FOMC）维持联邦基金目标利率在4.25%—4.50%，连续五次"按兵不动"。但市场关注的焦点并非降不降 息，而是此次会议及其声明是否释放出"政策转折"的前兆信号。 答案并不简单。表面上，美联储仍然坚持"数据驱动"立场，强调美国通胀尚未令人信服地回落，降息条件尚不成熟。但此次决议中罕见地出现了两票反对意 见（理事鲍曼和沃勒主张立即降息25个基点）。这或预示着美联储内部政策共识出现裂缝，未来路径将更加灵活、多变且具有争议性。 彭博经济研究院首席美国经济学家AnnaWong指出，自1993年以来，美联储首次出现两位理事对政策决议持不同意见，凸显内部矛盾加剧。或因妥协使然， 本次政策声明比预期更显鸽派，特别提及上半年经济增长放缓。她分析，6月核心个人消费支出（PCE）物价指数和7月非农数据，可能进一步激化FOMC的 分歧。 这并非简单的"鹰"与"鸽"之 ...