文 | 古书奇谭 编辑 | 古书奇谭 近期美国官方层面罕见公开承认中美实力已基本持平，这一打破过往认知的表态，迅速引发了国际金融 市场的连锁反应，各国央行开启狂囤黄金的密集动作，俄罗斯也顺势主动推出人民币主权债。 这些举措并非孤立存在，其背后既藏着各国对未来经济风险的预判，也预示着国际货币体系的深层重 构。那么这些动作究竟有何内在关联？又会给全球金融秩序带来哪些长远影响？ 美方实力持平表态的深层认知转变 长期以来，美国在国际话语权体系中保持着对自身实力优势的强调，即便近年中美在多个领域的差距持 续缩小，其官方表述也多以竞争或优势弱化来定义双边关系. 此次美方明确承认中美实力持平，是基于多维度数据的战略认知调整。从经济层面来看，2024年国际货 币基金组织发布的报告显示，按购买力平价计算，中国经济体量已连续多年稳居全球首位。 在制造业产值、货物贸易总额等核心指标上也保持领先，美国在传统经济优势领域的壁垒正逐步消解, 科技领域，中美在5G基站建设、新能源汽车产业链、量子计算等前沿赛道的差距不断收窄，部分领域 甚至形成分庭抗礼的格局。 在全球治理层面，中国推动的多边合作机制影响力持续提升，与美国主导的传统国际框架形 ...

Investment Ratings - Gold: ★☆☆, indicating a bullish bias but limited operability in the market [1] - Silver: ★☆★, with a somewhat more complex rating, perhaps suggesting a mix of short - term and long - term considerations [1] Core Views - The medium - to long - term upward logic of precious metals remains unchanged. However, with the entry into force of the first - phase Gaza cease - fire agreement and gold and silver reaching their integer - level target prices, the short - term upward momentum of gold has slowed, and silver's volatility has increased. There is a need to be wary of adjustments due to profit - taking by funds, and caution should be exercised at historical highs [1] Other Summaries Central Bank and Policy - Related - Fed officials have different views on interest rate cuts. Williams supports further cuts, believing the labor market may slow further; Barr advocates caution in cutting rates; Kashkari generally agrees with Barr; Daly thinks policy remains moderately tight after the September cut, and the Fed is expected to implement more cuts as part of risk management [2] - High - ranking Japanese official Takaichi Sanae has no intention of causing excessive yen depreciation, and it's unclear when the next interest rate hike will occur, but she is likely to be cautious. Yen weakness has both positive and negative impacts on the economy [2] - The central bank of the Democratic Republic of the Congo plans to build up its gold reserves during the gold price surge to stabilize the national currency [2]