文 | 古书奇谭 编辑 | 古书奇谭 近期美国官方层面罕见公开承认中美实力已基本持平，这一打破过往认知的表态，迅速引发了国际金融 市场的连锁反应，各国央行开启狂囤黄金的密集动作，俄罗斯也顺势主动推出人民币主权债。 这些举措并非孤立存在，其背后既藏着各国对未来经济风险的预判，也预示着国际货币体系的深层重 构。那么这些动作究竟有何内在关联？又会给全球金融秩序带来哪些长远影响？ 美方实力持平表态的深层认知转变 长期以来，美国在国际话语权体系中保持着对自身实力优势的强调，即便近年中美在多个领域的差距持 续缩小，其官方表述也多以竞争或优势弱化来定义双边关系. 此次美方明确承认中美实力持平，是基于多维度数据的战略认知调整。从经济层面来看，2024年国际货 币基金组织发布的报告显示，按购买力平价计算，中国经济体量已连续多年稳居全球首位。 在制造业产值、货物贸易总额等核心指标上也保持领先，美国在传统经济优势领域的壁垒正逐步消解, 科技领域，中美在5G基站建设、新能源汽车产业链、量子计算等前沿赛道的差距不断收窄，部分领域 甚至形成分庭抗礼的格局。 在全球治理层面，中国推动的多边合作机制影响力持续提升，与美国主导的传统国际框架形 ...

这年头美元老大哥坐不稳了，俄罗斯直接上手，首发人民币主权债，这事儿听着像金融圈的突发事件。 想想看，西方制裁几年，俄罗斯手里攥着一堆人民币没法花，这回干脆自己发债吸纳，顺带给全球去美元化添把火。 鲍威尔那边呢，特朗普天天嚷嚷换人，联储独立性摇摇欲坠，金价白银应声涨。人民币汇率会不会就这么杀回6时代？ 鲍威尔这人，从政界律师转行投资，2018年特朗普亲自点将他上联储主席宝座，本想让他听话点，谁知鲍威尔死守独立性，特朗普气得牙痒。2025年特朗普 二进宫，1月就开炮，说联储利率太高，害经济放缓，鲍威尔呢，3月和5月议息会照旧不降息，理由是数据不支持。 特朗普不干了，4月放话能直接炒鲍威尔鱿鱼，市场哆嗦一宿，股市债市齐跌。鲍威尔顶住压力，5月在国会作证，强调联储决策靠数据不靠政治。结果呢， 7月特朗普又改口，说无意炒人，但私下团队已盘算影子联储，绕过鲍威尔直接发货币言论。 11月30日，特朗普在空军一号上甩出重磅，说已定好下任主席人选，预测市场押注凯文·哈塞特概率58%，这家伙是国家经济委员会主任，经济观跟特朗普 对得上眼，专推低利率。鲍威尔任期到2026年5月15日，理事到2028年1月31日，按理他能熬到头，可 ...

哈喽，大家好，今天小墨这篇国际评论，就来聊聊俄罗斯莫斯科首发人民币主权债引发西方热议，全球 多国扎堆拥抱人民币，这到底是市场用脚投票的理性选择，还是西方炒作的"货币对抗"？ 这股"人民币热"的背后，既非中国单方面推动的"货币扩张"，也不是针对任何货币的对抗行动，而是全 球经济主体基于现实需求做出的理性抉择，是国际货币体系多元化演进的必然结果。 人民币在国际市场的认可度，正通过一个个具体行动不断夯实。 俄罗斯在莫斯科首发人民币主权债，成为人民币国际化进程中的又一标志性事件，而这只是全球"人民 币热"的一个缩影。 12月，俄罗斯财政部宣布在莫斯科发行首批人民币计价主权债券，这一常规的国际融资行为，却被部分 西方舆论贴上"挑战美元体系""地缘政治对抗"的标签。 从英国、印尼到俄罗斯，从巴西、印度到东盟各国，越来越多国家主动选择人民币作为结算、储备和融 资货币。 截至2024年四季度，全球80多个国家和地区的央行已将人民币纳入外汇储备，总额达2470亿美元，IMF 数据显示其占比升至2.18%，较2016年加入SDR时提升1.1个百分点。 全球"人民币版图"持续扩容，多国用行动投下信任票 在东盟地区，中国与越南、马来 ...

Group 1: Domestic News - The National Development and Reform Commission has expanded the scope of infrastructure REITs, including commercial office facilities and urban renewal facilities as independent asset categories [2] - The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Science and Technology issued guidelines to prevent illegal funding practices and ensure timely debt settlement [2] Group 2: International News - Russia will issue its first sovereign bonds denominated in RMB, starting on December 2, with a target coupon rate of 6.25%-6.5% for the 3.2-year portion and up to 7.5% for the 7.5-year portion [3] - The US ISM Manufacturing PMI for November fell to 48.2, indicating continued contraction in the manufacturing sector, with new orders and employment indices also declining [4] - The Bank of Japan's Governor hinted at a potential interest rate hike in December, leading to declines in both Japanese stocks and bonds [5] Group 3: Commodity Market - International crude oil prices increased, with WTI rising by 1.31% to $59.32 per barrel and Brent up by 1.26% to $63.17 per barrel [6] Group 4: Financial Market - On December 1, the central bank conducted a 7-day reverse repurchase operation of 107.6 billion yuan at a rate of 1.40%, resulting in a net withdrawal of 231.1 billion yuan [7] - The funding environment remained stable, with major repo rates showing slight fluctuations [8][9] Group 5: Bond Market Dynamics - The bond market showed strong fluctuations, with the 10-year government bond yield slightly decreasing to 1.8275% while the 10-year policy bank bond yield increased to 1.9000% [11] - In the secondary market, several corporate bonds experienced significant price deviations, with some bonds from Vanke dropping over 75% [14] Group 6: Credit Bond Events - Vanke's equity stake in Shenzhen Vanke Development was frozen for three years, and the company faced scrutiny over its financial practices [15] - Aoyuan Group announced it failed to pay interest on its bonds, accumulating a total of 6.44 billion yuan in unpaid principal and interest [15] Group 7: Convertible Bonds - The convertible bond market saw mixed performance, with the China Securities Convertible Bond Index and the Shanghai Stock Exchange Convertible Bond Index rising by 0.10% and 0.19% respectively [18] - The total trading volume in the convertible bond market was 55.329 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.851 billion yuan from the previous trading day [18] Group 8: Overseas Bond Market - US Treasury yields rose across all maturities, with the 2-year yield increasing by 7 basis points to 3.54% and the 10-year yield rising by 7 basis points to 4.09% [20] - Major European economies also saw an increase in 10-year government bond yields, with Germany's yield rising by 6 basis points to 2.75% [23]

Core Insights - Russia plans to issue RMB bonds domestically for the first time to activate dormant RMB reserves and supplement government finances [1][5] - This move is significant as it marks a shift from traditional offshore RMB bond issuance to onshore issuance, reflecting Russia's pivot away from Western currencies [5][8] Group 1: RMB Bond Issuance - Other countries issue RMB bonds as "Panda bonds" in mainland China or "Dim Sum bonds" in offshore markets, primarily in Hong Kong [3][5] - Indonesia's recent issuance of RMB Dim Sum bonds indicates a growing acceptance of RMB assets in international markets [5][6] Group 2: Strategic Implications for Russia - Russia's decision to issue RMB bonds domestically is a strategic response to its economic isolation from Western nations post-Ukraine conflict, aiming to utilize the substantial RMB reserves accumulated through trade with China [5][8] - The planned issuance includes up to four bonds totaling 400 billion rubles (approximately 35 billion RMB), with maturities ranging from 3 to 10 years, addressing both short-term liquidity and long-term development needs [6][9] Group 3: Impact on RMB Internationalization - The issuance of RMB bonds in Russia signifies a qualitative leap in the international status of the RMB, transitioning from a trade settlement currency to an investment and reserve currency [8][9] - This initiative may encourage other countries with close trade ties to China to adopt similar practices, contributing to a more diversified and resilient international financial ecosystem [9][11] Group 4: Broader Financial Trends - The diversification of RMB bond issuance models, including Panda bonds, Dim Sum bonds, and now domestic RMB sovereign bonds, reflects a trend towards a more flexible and multi-faceted integration of the RMB into global finance [9][11] - Russia's pioneering move not only provides an outlet for dormant funds but also offers a new strategy for other nations to mitigate single currency risks in a multipolar economic landscape [11]