Core Insights - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that non-member jewelry enterprises face increased profit pressure in the short term, while member enterprises of the Shanghai Gold Exchange are relatively less affected. In the long term, industry concentration is expected to increase, with brands possessing pricing power showing stronger performance resilience [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - Starting from November 1, 2025, a differentiated VAT management system will be implemented for standard gold transactions through the Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchanges, exempting the selling party from VAT during the transaction phase [1]. - The new policy allows for "immediate collection and refund" for investment gold used for investment purposes, while non-investment gold will be exempt from VAT and can be taxed at a 6% deduction rate [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shift in tax policy is expected to lead to a significant decline in non-exchange investment gold demand, benefiting top-tier enterprises with membership in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, such as Caibai Co., China Gold, and Lao Feng Xiang [2]. - Non-member jewelry brands, which rely heavily on member suppliers for raw materials, will face increased VAT burdens, leading to short-term profit pressure. However, the long-term outlook suggests that demand concentration may boost sales for leading enterprises as smaller firms exit the market [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies with Shanghai Gold Exchange membership and investment gold operations are likely to benefit from the trend towards market concentration [1]. - Jewelry enterprises with a growing proportion of fixed-price gold products and stable high-end customer bases may present short-term investment opportunities due to potential market corrections [1].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expectation of an increase exceeding 15% over the next 3-6 months [5] Core Insights - The new tax policy effective from November 1, 2025, will eliminate tax arbitrage for investment gold sales, leading to a concentration of demand towards leading enterprises with membership in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [2][3] - Non-investment gold jewelry sales enterprises will face short-term profit pressure due to changes in tax policies, but long-term benefits are expected for industry leaders with pricing power [2][3] - The shift in tax policy is anticipated to improve cash flow for larger jewelry enterprises while putting pressure on smaller firms, potentially leading to market consolidation [3] Summary by Sections Event Background - Starting from November 1, 2025, a differentiated VAT management system will be implemented for standard gold transactions through the Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchange, with specific tax exemptions and requirements for different types of transactions [1] Industry Impact - Investment gold sales enterprises will see a shift in demand towards top-tier companies due to the elimination of tax arbitrage, benefiting firms like Cai Bai, China Gold, and Lao Feng Xiang [2] - Non-investment gold jewelry firms will experience increased VAT burdens, leading to short-term profit pressures, while larger firms with pricing power may benefit in the long run [2][3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term profit pressures are expected for non-member jewelry enterprises, while member enterprises of the Shanghai Gold Exchange are likely to be less affected. Long-term, the industry concentration is expected to increase, favoring brands with pricing power [3] - Recommended to focus on member enterprises engaged in investment gold business and those with a growing proportion of fixed-price gold products, such as Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji [3]