摘要 煤炭行业 2026 年度策略——伺机而动 20260107 晋陕蒙地区仍有大量未完成的落后产能指标，若这些指标对应的产能退 出，将对煤炭市场供给产生约束，需关注民营企业未交指标产能的退出 风险。 108 号文及灾害治理项目退出对原煤生产形成约束，合计影响超过 1 亿 吨的产能，2026 年需持续关注 108 号文的执行情况及灾害治理项目的 退出进度。 清洁能源挤压火电，但新增装机动力减弱，电煤需求可能并未如预期般 疲软，基本面预期较弱时，边际改善可能带来配置机会。 美国 AI 用电需求增长推动煤电发电量和电煤需求增加，2025 年 1-9 月 美国煤电发电量同比增加 13%，电煤需求增加 10%，未来或依赖煤电 填补缺口。 美国燃煤电厂产能利用率提升潜力巨大，若提升至 55%，预计每年将增 加约 5,000 万吨煤炭需求，可能需要增加从澳大利亚的进口。 印尼政府出台政策以稳定煤炭市场，包括超产即停产、增加出口税等措 施，这将提高全球贸易成本底线，对中国进口价格形成支撑。 印尼实施 RKB 新规和禁止公路运输等措施，旨在减少小型矿企，提高大 企业市场份额，从而稳定整体市场，投资者应关注行业集中度提升带来 ...

近日，益丰药房在互动平台向投资者表示，受经济环境、行业周期等多重因素的影响，短期内，公司以 提升经营质量为导向，减少开店及并购计划，营收增速相较以前有所放缓。但是，人口老龄化进程加 快、医药分开的医改以及行业集中度提升等行业发展逻辑并未发生根本性的变化，我们相信，零售药店 作为社区健康流量的重要入口，渠道价值和社会价值将不断提升，与此同时，随着行业多元化经营创新 以及线上线下新零售模式的不断成熟，药店零售行业将不断迎来新的发展空间。2025年1至9月，益丰药 房实现营收172.86亿元，同比增长0.39%；实现归母净利润12.25亿元，同比增长10.27%。 ...

防水行业出清最剧烈，集中度提升带来复价可能。 2021 年行业需求从高峰调整以来，防水行业是消费建材中出清最剧烈的子行业。这来自于 :1. 行业"垫 资"传统下应收账款信用风险暴露出清中小企业； 2. 行业开工端占比相对高需求下滑更领先； 3. 行业近年价格竞争激烈。我们估算以 2024 年为例，行业规 模前三企业合计市占率已经提升到 50% 左右， 2025 年应有进一步的提升。行业集中度的快速提升带来了两方面的变化： 1. 进一步价格竞争的不必要性， 价格竞争是为了稳定份额，份额相对集中后进一步提升难度较大，因此不必要进一步价格竞争； 2. 提价复价的可能性，当行业头部企业市占率已经够高，龙 头企业一旦达成共识，改善价格的可行性将更高。 2026 年复价尝试有望延续，沥青开年奠定较好盈利修复基础。 响应反内卷， 2025 年 7 月防水行业头部企业先后发出涨价函。虽然在 2025 年三季报中， 涨价对行业毛利率修复的效果还不够明显，但是龙头企业改善盈利能力的共同意愿已经较为明显。 2026 年我们相信行业会对盈利合理修复有进一步的尝试。 2025 年末沥青价格同比较低，带来了较好的冬储机会，这对于行业 2 ...

报告导读： 防水行业是消费建材中出清最彻底的子行业， 2026 年行业头部企业有望继续 推进复价策略，行业盈利能力修复可期。 维持行业"增持"评级。 经历了应收账款信用风险和较为快速的量价下滑后，防水成为近年消费建材出清最剧烈的子行业。我们估算 2024 年行业前四家市占 率已经接近 50% 。作为轻资产化学建材行业，龙头企业在 B 端工程业务已经接近盈亏平衡下，这意味着行业盈利能力已经处在底部位置。 2025 年行业主 要公司已经开始进行底部提价尝试，意味着主导企业经营策略的集体转变。 2026 年行业稳价复价的趋势有望更加明显，叠加开年沥青价格较低基础， 2026 年行业盈利有希望明显修复。 防水行业出清最剧烈，集中度提升带来复价可能。 2021 年行业需求从高峰调整以来，防水行业是消费建材中出清最剧烈的子行业。这来自于 :1. 行业"垫 资"传统下应收账款信用风险暴露出清中小企业； 2. 行业开工端占比相对高需求下滑更领先； 3. 行业近年价格竞争激烈。我们估算以 2024 年为例，行业规 模前三企业合计市占率已经提升到 50% 左右， 2025 年应有进一步的提升。行业集中度的快速提升带来了两方面的变 ...

智通财经12月30日讯（记者 刘建）2025年的黄羽鸡市场堪称一场 "冰与火" 交织的行业特写：上半年行 情触及近年低谷，养殖端全员亏损；8月后价格快速回暖，叠加企业降本增效，全年或有望实现盈亏平 衡。 展望2026年，散户加速退出与头部企业规模化扩张的两极格局将持续深化，头部企业预计仍将维持10% 的高增长速度，行业集中度提升。此外，还有业内人士预测，明年冰鲜与深加工将成为企业进一步加码 发展的趋势，行业将整体从"周期博弈"向"价值成长"转型，价格亦有望温和复苏。 2025年行情"先抑后扬" 盈利修复上半年亏损 "上半年卖一只亏一只，还好下半年行情回暖才缓过来。" 一位黄羽鸡养殖散户向记者吐槽，这一感受 正是行业上半年低迷态势的真实写照。 温氏股份相关人士告诉记者，"公司2026年肉鸡上市量目标为在2025年上市量的基础上增加10%左右。 未来，公司致力于与同行企业一起，做好中华土鸡推广工作，做大市场空间。中长期，公司希望通过黄 鸡北上、毛鸡下乡、优势区域精耕、食材食品转型等方式，稳步提升肉鸡上市量。" 此外，有业内人士告诉记者，"明年价格有望实现温和修复，前期产能去化与需求稳步复苏支撑价格中 枢上行；冰鲜 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for Anjuke Foods (603345.SH) as the initial coverage [2]. Core Views - The report highlights that Anjuke Foods, as a leading player in the frozen food sector, is expected to benefit from the recovery in dining consumption, the implementation of national standards for prepared dishes, and the expansion of new products, leading to performance growth [6][7]. - The frozen food industry in China is projected to maintain steady growth, with a market size of approximately 210 billion yuan in 2024 and a CAGR of about 6.5% from 2019 to 2024 [6]. - The company’s revenue for 2025, 2026, and 2027 is forecasted to be 157.3 billion yuan, 168.3 billion yuan, and 182.5 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 4.0%, 7.0%, and 8.5% [6]. Summary by Sections Market Data - Closing price: 81.52 yuan - Market capitalization: 23,909 million yuan - Price-to-earnings ratio (PE): 17.6X for 2025 [2]. Financial Performance - Revenue for 2023 is projected at 14,045 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 15.3% [8]. - The net profit for 2025 is expected to be 1,359 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 8.4% compared to the previous year [8]. - Gross profit margins for various product lines are forecasted to improve, with frozen prepared food margins expected to reach 27.5% by 2025 [6][7]. Product and Innovation Strategy - The company is focusing on innovation in frozen dishes, with significant revenue growth in this segment, which accounted for 32.0% of total revenue in the first three quarters of 2025 [6][7]. - The acquisition of Dingwei Tai is expected to enhance the company's capabilities in the frozen baking segment, which is one of the fastest-growing areas in the frozen food industry [7]. Competitive Positioning - Anjuke Foods is positioned to benefit from the increasing standardization and regulation in the prepared food industry, which is expected to raise entry barriers and favor leading companies [6][7]. - The company has established strategic partnerships with major retailers and restaurant chains, enhancing its market presence and customer loyalty through customized product offerings [7].

企业产能利用率提升 供应端的持续宽松，进一步加剧了市场降温态势。数据显示，截至12月第三周，国内焦化企业周度产能利用率保持在73%以上， 较11月的低位相比提升了2%左右，煤焦油产出量平稳增长。虽然近期焦炭价格已历经两轮下调，但原料端成本下降带动焦企利润 增加，多数焦企生产速度暂未放缓，只是局部地区由于煤耗指标殆尽，开工率小幅下降。整体来看，国内焦企开工水平相对较为 稳定，短期内不会出现明显下降。 更值得关注的是，煤焦油行业集中度提升正放大市场供需变化的影响。平煤神马所属焦化企业一位经营负责人介绍，随着近些年 来煤焦油加氢技术的深度应用，煤焦油深加工企业已基本实现规模化、集中化，行业呈现"头部集中、中小企业差异化竞争"格 局。如宝武集团、信诺立兴集团、宝舜集团、山西焦化等龙头企业通过并购整合形成规模优势，单厂年产能普遍达30万吨以上， 部分企业形成年产950万吨的产能规模。 11月中旬以来，国内煤焦油(主要指高温煤焦油)市场经历了1个月的回暖阶段，至12月上旬触顶至成交价3460元(吨价，下同)，环 比涨幅达14%。然而，进入12月中旬后受下游产业链市场价格普降、企业产能利用率提升等因素影响，市场行情走软。截 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Guojin Securities highlights the proposed share-swap merger of Zhongjin Company with Dongxing Securities and Xinda Securities, indicating an acceleration in consolidation within the investment banking sector, which may enhance international competitiveness and strengthen the industry's Matthew effect [1] Summary by Sections Merger Proposal Highlights - The controlling shareholder remains unchanged, with Central Huijin still being the controlling shareholder and actual controller of Zhongjin Company [1] - The share-swap pricing for Zhongjin Company is set at 36.91 CNY per share, based on the average trading price over the last 20 trading days, while Dongxing Securities is priced at 16.14 CNY per share, reflecting a 26% premium [2] Development Outlook - The merger is expected to improve comprehensive rankings, with Zhongjin Company, Xinda Securities, and Dongxing Securities moving up in total assets, net assets, and net profit rankings post-merger [3] - The number of business outlets for Zhongjin Company is projected to increase from 245 to 436, enhancing regional distribution and customer base, with retail clients expected to rise from 9.72 million to over 14 million [3] - Capital efficiency is anticipated to improve, with the operating leverage ratios of Zhongjin Company, Dongxing Securities, and Xinda Securities being 5.42, 3.20, and 3.84 respectively, allowing for better capital utilization and international business expansion [4]

更深层次的动力，则源于行业格局的深刻变革。经历前期的快速扩张后，医药零售行业正从"野蛮生长"步入"精耕细作"的整合阶 段。数据显示，尽管实体药店总数一度突破70万家，但市场竞争已趋于白热化，部分经营不善的中小连锁药店开始退出市场。自 2024年第四季度以来，行业门店数量已连续两个季度呈现净减少态势。 展望未来，行业龙头的增长路径已清晰可见，即"内生+外延"双轮驱动。一方面，通过优化产品结构、提升服务质量和运营效率，实 现同店增长的"内生性"动力；另一方面，通过并购整合，吸纳优质门店资源，扩大市场份额的"外延式"扩张。目前，部分行业龙头 的直营门店数量约1万家，占行业总数比例仍低，行业格局变化仍处于早期阶段，集中度提升的主线将长期存在。 【环球网消费综合报道】12月18日，A股医药商业板块强势崛起，领涨两市。截至收盘，板块整体上涨5.73%，华人健康20CM涨 停，漱玉平民上涨20.03%，一心堂、英特集团、塞力医疗、重药控股等多股涨停，板块内呈现普涨格局。 这轮行情的背后，是市场对医药商业行业长期增长逻辑的重新认可。在近期公众健康意识提升的背景下，相关药品及健康产品的市 场需求得到提振，为零售药店等终端渠道带 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the strong performance of China National Pharmaceutical Group (Sinopharm) in the pharmaceutical distribution industry, with a 17% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q3 2025 [1][5] - Sinopharm operates in three main segments: pharmaceutical distribution, medical device distribution, and retail, with a revenue of 584.5 billion RMB in 2024, maintaining a leading position in the Chinese pharmaceutical retail market [1][3] - The company has a robust distribution network covering over 700,000 terminal networks across various provinces, contributing to its market share growth [1][3] Group 2 - Sinopharm's actual controller is China National Pharmaceutical Group, with a clear distribution of business across its subsidiaries, including significant stakes in listed companies [2] - The company has experienced a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9% in revenue over the past seven years, with a slight decline in revenue in 2024 [3][5] - The net profit for 2024 was approximately 7.05 billion RMB, reflecting a 22.14% year-on-year decrease due to impairment provisions [5][6] Group 3 - The pharmaceutical distribution segment has shown a CAGR of about 7% from 2018 to 2024, with a focus on high-value clinical products and marketing service expansion [9][10] - The medical device distribution segment has also seen growth, particularly in the SPD (Smart Procurement and Distribution) business, which has expanded its coverage significantly [11][13] - The industry is experiencing increased concentration, benefiting leading companies like Sinopharm, which holds over 20% market share [14]