证券板块 报行合一继续深化，人身险产品费用分摊规则细化。11 月 21 日，中国精算师协会发布《人身保险产品费用分摊指引》， 核心内容如下：1）适用范围：明确适用于人身险公司经营的一年期以上个人长期保险产品的费用分摊。2）明确费用 分摊范围，四类不参与分摊：以实质重于形式的原则分摊，中介手续费、代理人佣金等为变动费用；业务推动费、宣 传费、培训费为其他变动费用；其余需分摊在产品中的业务及管理费为固定费用；非源于销售和经营本公司保险产品 发生的支出、资管部门相关费用、审计费和董办等不直接归属于保险合同的费用、特殊投入项目费用等可辨别的非持 续或者一次性发生费用可不参与保险产品费用分摊。3）明确费用分摊规则：按照"先认定、后分摊"原则，一是针对 销售渠道的费用分摊，《指引》将保险公司总部及各分支机构的费用分摊部门，划分为前台销售部门、中台运营部门 和后台管理部门，手续费和佣金直接认定至相应渠道；二是针对各保单年度的费用分摊，手续费和佣金直接认定为首 年和续年相关费用，固定费用可参考上述分摊方法分摊至首年和续年，明确对新单与存量业务相应费用保持逻辑一致 的分摊方法，不将固定费用在新单和存量业务间进行调节。其中，首年 ...

（文章来源：证券日报） 证券日报网讯恩捷股份11月21日发布公告，在公司回答调研者提问时表示，中小企业缺乏扩产信心和能 力，未来少数供给端的增量主要来源于头部企业，预计行业集中度将进一步提升。 ...

| | ☑ | 特定对象调研 □分析师会议 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投 资 者 | | □媒体采访 □业绩说明会 | | 关系活动类 | | □新闻发布会 □路演活动 | | 别 | | □现场参观 | | | | □其他 | | 参 与 单 | | 易方达基金、中信保诚基金、鹏华基金、美银、瑞银、中信建投证券、中信证券等 | | 位名称及人 | 机构 | | | 员姓名 | | | | 时间 | 2025 | 年 11 月 20 日 | | 地点 | | 恩捷股份金桥新能源总部 | | 上 市 公 | | | | 司接待人员 | | 副总经理禹雪、董事会秘书白云飞、投资者关系经理徐晶晶 | | 姓名 | | | | | | 公司就投资者以下问题进行回复： | | | | 1、储能电池使用的隔膜有从干法切去湿法的趋势吗？ | | | | 公司储能电池客户目前已有部分产品从干法隔膜切换至湿法隔膜，公司对电池 | | 投 资 者 | | 隔膜产业各类技术和动态保持关注，始终致力于为客户提供符合需求的优质产品。 | | 关系活动主 | | | | 要内容介绍 | | 谢谢关注！ | | | ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Outperform" rating for the company [6] Core Views - The company has shown impressive profit growth in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 20.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, and net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.081 billion yuan, up 26.0% [1][9] - The company is expanding its market presence across China, leveraging a combination of self-built stores, franchises, and acquisitions, establishing a leading position in the industry [3][78] - The company is expected to achieve revenue of 27.205 billion yuan in 2025, with a projected growth rate of 2.7% [3][101] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's sales expense ratio decreased to 21.8%, while the net profit margin improved to 5.8% [2][17] - The gross profit margin for the retail business was 37.7%, reflecting a 0.4 percentage point increase [2][17] - The company anticipates a steady increase in revenue and profit over the next few years, with net profit expected to reach 1.208 billion yuan in 2025, a growth of 32.0% [3][101] Business Model and Strategy - The company operates a diversified business model that includes direct retail, franchise operations, and distribution, focusing on high-margin products [41][90] - The company has developed a robust supply chain and logistics system to enhance operational efficiency and customer service [41][88] - The franchise model is becoming a significant growth driver, with the number of franchise stores increasing substantially [82][86] Market Position and Expansion - The company has established a strong presence in South China and is expanding into other regions, including the Yangtze River Delta and Northeast China [3][78] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the company had a total of 17,385 stores, with a significant proportion being franchise stores [28][80] - The company is well-positioned to capitalize on the ongoing transformation in the pharmacy industry, which is shifting from rapid expansion to deeper integration [3][44] Future Outlook - The company is expected to benefit from structural growth opportunities in the pharmacy sector, driven by trends such as prescription drug outflow and the professionalization of retail endpoints [3][60] - The projected revenue for 2026 and 2027 is 30.071 billion yuan and 33.363 billion yuan, respectively, indicating a positive growth trajectory [3][101]

Summary of the Conference Call for Dongfang Yuhong Industry Overview - The price war in the industry is easing, and the real estate market is stabilizing, leading to potential growth opportunities for Dongfang Yuhong [2][4] - New regulations implemented in 2023 have raised waterproofing standards, benefiting high-quality companies like Dongfang Yuhong [2] Company Performance and Strategy - Dongfang Yuhong has expanded its market share due to the exit of small and medium enterprises, resulting in increased industry concentration [2][4] - The company has raised prices multiple times despite weak demand, positively impacting gross margins and indicating an improving industry trend [2][5] - The strategic focus has shifted from infrastructure to real estate companies, establishing partnerships with major firms like Vanke and implementing a partner system and equity incentives [2][4] - The company is transitioning from reliance on direct sales to developing channel and retail businesses, with retail channel revenue increasing to 36% and engineering channel revenue decreasing to below 48% [2][9] Financial Performance - In the first three quarters of 2025, revenue was approximately 20.6 billion, a 5% year-on-year decline, while net profit attributable to shareholders dropped by 37% to 800 million [11] - The decline in profit is attributed to overall revenue drop, pricing pressure, and cost structure adjustments, although operating cash flow improved significantly to 1.42 billion [11] - The company expects net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 to be 970 million, 1.49 billion, and 2.01 billion respectively, with anticipated stability in the real estate market aiding performance [3][12] Product Revenue Breakdown - In 2024, revenue from waterproof membranes is expected to account for 42%, coatings for 31%, and mortar powder for 15%, with non-waterproof business revenue increasing significantly [10] Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges in cash collection, particularly in the real estate sector, but has made strategic adjustments to mitigate these issues [8] - The competitive landscape is shifting, with stronger companies like Dongfang Yuhong gaining more market share as weaker players exit the market [4][6] Conclusion - Dongfang Yuhong is well-positioned to capitalize on the improving market conditions and regulatory changes, with a strategic focus on enhancing its retail and channel business while managing cash flow and profitability effectively [2][12]

目前头部隔膜厂家产能利用率高，产业反馈湿法隔膜TOP3已满产，龙头干法隔膜企业产能利用率约7~8 成。三方价格显示已触底反转，其中7、9μm湿法隔膜涨价明显，8月以来基膜已涨价7分/平方米；涂覆 膜已涨价1毛/平方米。干法隔膜近期反馈也已陆续涨价。 资本开支收缩，行业产能释放有限 智通财经APP获悉，招商证券发布研报称，根据产业反馈，湿法隔膜主流企业都已满产，三方价格也可 以看到，湿法隔膜、涂覆膜、干法隔膜价格均开始反弹。目前隔膜行业盈利能力处于历史低位，行业前 两大公司近两个季度出现亏损。尽管需求向好，但由于隔膜资产重、扩产周期较大，主流企业扩产意愿 低；行业资本开支23年以来逐渐下行，后续产能释放有限，2026年供给可能更紧张。 招商证券主要观点如下： 湿法隔膜价格进入上行通道 行业集中度持续提升，重点关注5μm超薄高强膜应用 2025H1隔膜行业CR4超7成，较24年继续提升。储能、车端超快充对隔膜厚度、安全性、性能提出了更 高的要求，5μm超薄高强湿法隔膜性能好、有溢价，未来市占率预计将快速提升。同时头部企业开发新 一代涂覆隔膜，宽幅高速产线投入使用，产品性能和成本优势进一步增强，行业集中度未来可能持 ...

Core Viewpoint - The new tax policy for gold aims to reshape the industry ecosystem, promote the maturity and internationalization of the gold market, and enhance market transparency and compliance [2][9][10]. Group 1: Background and Impact of the New Tax Policy - The new tax policy is a response to the increasing investment enthusiasm in gold, driven by rising gold prices, and aims to address accumulated tax issues within the gold industry [9]. - The policy encourages trading around exchanges, strengthens the position of member units, and aims to eliminate non-compliant small enterprises, thereby enhancing overall market efficiency [9][10]. - The long-term effect of the policy is expected to attract more compliant capital into the market, supporting healthy growth in the gold market [9][10]. Group 2: Specific Provisions and Their Effects on the Industry Chain - The new policy introduces three main provisions: adjustments to input tax deduction ratios, detailed rules for invoice issuance, and differential treatment between member and non-member units, leading to differentiated impacts on the industry chain [13][15]. - Upstream mining companies are largely unaffected, while member units enjoy more tax deductions on investment gold, allowing them to expand and consolidate their market position [13][18]. - Non-member units may face increased costs and compliance pressures, potentially leading to a market exit for some non-compliant enterprises [16][20]. Group 3: Changes in Different Segments of the Gold Sector - The new policy is expected to benefit leading mining companies, as they will not face additional tax burdens, while processing and retail segments may see increased market concentration towards larger companies [18][20]. - Retail companies that are members of the exchange may experience increased tax costs, but their core competitiveness in product and service quality will help maintain stable profits [18][20]. - The policy is likely to lead to price increases for gold jewelry, as companies may pass on cost pressures to consumers [16][20]. Group 4: Compliance and Transparency in the Industry - The new policy is designed to close long-standing tax loopholes and promote fair taxation, thereby increasing market transparency and compliance [11][22]. - The elimination of "offshore tax evasion" practices is expected to enhance the competitive advantage of compliant enterprises, leading to a more transparent and stable market environment [22][23]. - The policy is anticipated to improve the profitability and market share of quality enterprises, as the competitive landscape shifts towards product and channel strength [22][23]. Group 5: Attraction of Gold ETFs - Gold ETFs and other financial derivatives are expected to gain attractiveness due to their tax advantages, as they are not affected by the new VAT adjustments [26][30]. - Ordinary investors may find the appeal of physical gold investments declining, while gold ETFs will become more attractive due to lower investment thresholds and operational simplicity [26][30]. - The new policy is likely to lead to increased inflows into gold ETFs, helping investors balance convenience and tax burdens [26][30]. Group 6: Future Price Trends of Gold - The long-term outlook for gold prices remains positive, supported by factors such as inflation, central bank policies, and geopolitical tensions [30][32]. - Short-term fluctuations may occur, but the structural demand for gold, particularly from emerging market central banks, is expected to provide solid support for prices [32][30]. - The anticipated monetary easing in the coming years is likely to benefit gold assets, making significant declines in gold prices unlikely [32][30].

Core Viewpoint - The recent adjustment in gold tax policy has led to significant market disruptions, particularly in the Shenzhen gold market, resulting in increased price volatility and a widening gap between purchase and recovery prices [3][4][9]. Pricing Chaos - The gold pricing in the Shenzhen market is currently experiencing a "temporary chaos," with prices fluctuating rapidly. For instance, the price per gram rose from approximately 989 CNY to 993 CNY within a single day, including a tax component of about 70 CNY per gram [5][6]. - The gap between buying and selling prices has expanded to over 100 CNY per gram, compared to just 27 CNY six months ago [6][9]. Market Reaction - Despite a busy market, actual purchases have decreased significantly, with many consumers opting to wait and see due to the sudden price hikes. Only essential buyers, such as those preparing for weddings, are making purchases [9][12]. - The "one-price" gold products, which have smaller price adjustments and appeal to younger consumers, are gaining popularity as gifts [9]. Tax Policy Impact - The recent tax policy changes, effective from November 1, have led to increased costs for non-member jewelry brands, as their input tax deduction rates have decreased from 13% to 6%, resulting in higher VAT payments and potential profit pressure [11][12]. - The gold market's supply chain involves raw material suppliers, gold manufacturers, and retailers, with the tax burden now affecting the entire chain [12][13]. Long-term Industry Outlook - Analysts predict that non-member jewelry companies will face increased profit pressures in the short term, while member companies may be less affected. Over time, the industry is expected to consolidate, with brands that can set prices showing greater resilience [16]. - The policy aims to streamline transactions and reduce capital occupation, which could lead to increased industry concentration and improved operational efficiency in the gold jewelry sector [16].

Core Insights - The report from Guojin Securities indicates that non-member jewelry enterprises face increased profit pressure in the short term, while member enterprises of the Shanghai Gold Exchange are relatively less affected. In the long term, industry concentration is expected to increase, with brands possessing pricing power showing stronger performance resilience [1][2]. Group 1: Policy Changes and Impacts - Starting from November 1, 2025, a differentiated VAT management system will be implemented for standard gold transactions through the Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchanges, exempting the selling party from VAT during the transaction phase [1]. - The new policy allows for "immediate collection and refund" for investment gold used for investment purposes, while non-investment gold will be exempt from VAT and can be taxed at a 6% deduction rate [1][3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The shift in tax policy is expected to lead to a significant decline in non-exchange investment gold demand, benefiting top-tier enterprises with membership in the Shanghai Gold Exchange, such as Caibai Co., China Gold, and Lao Feng Xiang [2]. - Non-member jewelry brands, which rely heavily on member suppliers for raw materials, will face increased VAT burdens, leading to short-term profit pressure. However, the long-term outlook suggests that demand concentration may boost sales for leading enterprises as smaller firms exit the market [3]. Group 3: Investment Opportunities - Companies with Shanghai Gold Exchange membership and investment gold operations are likely to benefit from the trend towards market concentration [1]. - Jewelry enterprises with a growing proportion of fixed-price gold products and stable high-end customer bases may present short-term investment opportunities due to potential market corrections [1].

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Buy" with an expectation of an increase exceeding 15% over the next 3-6 months [5] Core Insights - The new tax policy effective from November 1, 2025, will eliminate tax arbitrage for investment gold sales, leading to a concentration of demand towards leading enterprises with membership in the Shanghai Gold Exchange [2][3] - Non-investment gold jewelry sales enterprises will face short-term profit pressure due to changes in tax policies, but long-term benefits are expected for industry leaders with pricing power [2][3] - The shift in tax policy is anticipated to improve cash flow for larger jewelry enterprises while putting pressure on smaller firms, potentially leading to market consolidation [3] Summary by Sections Event Background - Starting from November 1, 2025, a differentiated VAT management system will be implemented for standard gold transactions through the Shanghai Gold and Futures Exchange, with specific tax exemptions and requirements for different types of transactions [1] Industry Impact - Investment gold sales enterprises will see a shift in demand towards top-tier companies due to the elimination of tax arbitrage, benefiting firms like Cai Bai, China Gold, and Lao Feng Xiang [2] - Non-investment gold jewelry firms will experience increased VAT burdens, leading to short-term profit pressures, while larger firms with pricing power may benefit in the long run [2][3] Investment Recommendations - Short-term profit pressures are expected for non-member jewelry enterprises, while member enterprises of the Shanghai Gold Exchange are likely to be less affected. Long-term, the industry concentration is expected to increase, favoring brands with pricing power [3] - Recommended to focus on member enterprises engaged in investment gold business and those with a growing proportion of fixed-price gold products, such as Lao Pu Gold and Chao Hong Ji [3]