文丨喜盼晴 编辑丨一池秋水 **前言** 几十年来，世界各国几乎都把黄金存放在美国，认为那里是最安全的地方，就像一个无懈可 击的保险柜。然而，现在这一局面已经发生了根本性变化。美国面临的债务危机、信用危机和地缘政治 冲突，使得这个保险柜如今变成了一个深不见底的黑洞。 最近有消息称，柬埔寨决定将其黄金储备转 移到中国深圳的金库中，而越来越多的国家也开始评估是否应该采取类似行动。与此同时，许多国家悄 悄地将原本存放在美国的黄金运回自己的国家。这不再只是一次简单的金条搬家，而是全球信任体系崩 塌的一个信号。黄金正在离开美国，全球财富的分布也在悄然发生变化。更重要的是，中国正在成为新 的黄金安全港，这让特朗普忧心忡忡，因为这不仅仅是一个经济问题，而是美国霸权地位开始动摇的预 兆。 **黄金回流潮：各国开始不信任美国** 曾几何时，几乎所有国家都认为将黄金存放在美国是最安全的 选择。美国的金库安全性高，技术先进，而且美元是全球主要的结算货币，看起来一切都非常完美。然 而，这一信任体系如今已经出现了致命的裂痕。 最早产生疑虑的是德国。2012年，德国央行突然宣 布，要分批把存放在美国和法国的黄金运回本国。当时，外界普遍认 ...

Core Viewpoint - The internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) is gaining momentum amid a global trend of de-dollarization, with countries increasingly seeking alternatives to the US dollar for trade payments, particularly through the launch of the digital RMB international operation center in Shanghai [1][14]. Group 1: RMB Internationalization Progress - As of January to August 2024, the amount of goods trade settled in RMB accounted for 26.5% of global cross-border trade [5]. - In August 2024, RMB's share in global payments was 4.69%, maintaining its position as the fourth largest payment currency for ten consecutive months [7]. - The Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) covers 189 countries and regions, facilitating smoother RMB circulation internationally [8]. Group 2: Challenges to RMB Internationalization - The capital account remains insufficiently open, limiting foreign investment in China's bond and stock markets due to quota restrictions [10]. - The liquidity and safety of domestic assets are lacking, with China's government bonds having a market size significantly smaller than US Treasuries [12]. - A limited number of commodities are priced in RMB, with only 4% of imported crude oil settled in RMB in 2024 [12]. Group 3: Gold as a Strategic Asset - Southeast Asian countries are increasingly storing gold in China, which signifies a shift in the global financial landscape and a competition for gold pricing power [3][19]. - The combination of digital RMB and gold provides a new pathway for RMB internationalization, allowing countries to use RMB without converting to USD [14][29]. - The Shanghai Gold Exchange is the largest physical gold trading platform globally, facilitating transactions in RMB and providing services like gold leasing and financing [25]. Group 4: Economic and Geopolitical Implications - The geopolitical climate, particularly post-Russia-Ukraine conflict, has led countries to seek safer asset storage options, with China emerging as a viable alternative [23][25]. - The RMB-gold model could potentially reduce the demand for USD in Southeast Asia by $120 billion annually if 30% of oil trade shifts to this model [31]. - The RMB-gold system aims to enhance the core functions of the RMB as a payment, safe-haven, and reserve currency, gradually breaking the dominance of the USD [33]. Group 5: Impact on Daily Life and Investment - The expansion of RMB usage in international settlements will lower transaction costs for consumers, reducing currency exchange fees [35]. - The promotion of digital RMB will simplify cross-border payments, allowing for seamless transactions without the need for large amounts of foreign currency [37]. - New investment products combining RMB and gold are emerging, offering stable returns and lower risks in the current low-interest-rate environment [40].

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic shift in global finance due to gold custody arrangements, particularly involving Southeast Asian countries moving their gold reserves to China, specifically the Shanghai Gold Exchange [1][3]. Group 1: Gold Custody and Strategic Implications - Southeast Asian countries are secretly transferring gold reserves to China, with Laos already storing 3 tons in Shanghai, indicating a significant shift in asset management strategies [1]. - The move is driven by the realization of risks associated with storing assets in foreign countries, highlighted by the U.S. freezing of Russian reserves during the Ukraine conflict [1]. - The price of gold has surged from $1,800 per ounce before the conflict to $3,800 per ounce by 2025, reflecting increased demand and strategic importance [1]. Group 2: Market Advantages of Shanghai Gold Exchange - The Shanghai Gold Exchange has become the world's largest spot gold trading market, with a trading volume of 68,000 tons in 2024, allowing for direct refining and storage in China, thus reducing costs for Southeast Asian gold producers [3]. - The integration of gold custody with the internationalization of the Renminbi (RMB) creates a cycle where countries can use gold as collateral to obtain RMB for trade settlements, enhancing trade efficiency [3]. Group 3: Digital Currency and Transaction Efficiency - The introduction of digital RMB has significantly improved transaction efficiency, allowing for instant payments without fees, contrasting with traditional systems that took hours and incurred high costs [4]. - The combination of digital RMB and gold custody further reduces transaction costs and enhances the overall efficiency of cross-border trade [4]. Group 4: Energy Sector Implications - China has established agreements with Saudi Arabia and the UAE for energy transactions in RMB, allowing Southeast Asian countries to use gold stored in China to pay for energy, bypassing the U.S. dollar [6]. - If 30% of oil trade in Southeast Asia adopts this model, it could reduce annual dollar demand by up to $120 billion [6]. Group 5: Broader Economic Impact - The shift towards RMB for cross-border transactions is already benefiting ordinary consumers by reducing currency exchange costs, exemplified by savings on imported goods [7]. - Despite the U.S. dollar still holding 58% of global foreign exchange reserves, the decline in gold reserves at the New York Federal Reserve indicates a potential shift in global financial dynamics [7].

Core Viewpoint - The significant increase in international gold prices, from $1,800 to $3,800, indicates a shift in the global financial order, with gold being re-emphasized as a natural currency amid declining reliance on the US dollar [1][15]. Group 1: Historical Context of Dollar Dominance - The Bretton Woods system established the dollar's dominance by tying it to gold, making it the global hard currency [3]. - The US leveraged military power to enforce the "petrodollar" system, compelling oil-producing countries to transact in dollars, thus sustaining dollar hegemony [3]. - The weakening of US influence in the Middle East and the weaponization of finance have prompted countries to seek alternatives to the dollar [3][15]. Group 2: China's Role in Gold Custody - China is positioning itself as a "gold custodian" for other nations, allowing them to store sovereign gold in China, thereby enhancing its influence in the global gold market [5]. - The People's Bank of China has been accumulating gold, with reserves projected to reach 73.61 million ounces by February 2025, as a strategy to bolster the credibility of the renminbi [7]. Group 3: Renminbi's Position and Misinterpretations - Despite a reported 5.13% decrease in renminbi payments, the currency is still used in over 54% of China's trade, with many transactions bypassing SWIFT in favor of the CIPS system [9]. - The renminbi has become the third-largest financing and payment currency globally, following the euro and dollar, reflecting its growing importance [9]. Group 4: Future Financial Landscape - China's gold custody initiative is not aimed at replicating the Bretton Woods system but rather establishing a new framework for a decentralized global currency system [11]. - ASEAN countries are responding positively to China's gold custody offer, seeking to reduce dependence on the dollar and create a financial system independent of US influence [13]. - The rise in gold prices and China's actions signal a transition towards a multi-currency system, where currencies are linked to real economic value rather than centralized control [15][17].

Core Viewpoint - Yongkun Gold, a local Zhejiang enterprise, has faced a sudden collapse in its investment operations, leading to significant investor losses and legal actions against the company [3][17]. Group 1: Company Overview - Yongkun Gold was established over ten years ago and claimed to offer guaranteed returns on gold investments, which built investor trust [3][12]. - The company operates both online and offline investment channels, providing various gold-related products and services [6][9]. - Yongkun Gold's parent company, Yongkun Holdings, is a comprehensive service provider in the gold industry with a registered capital of 120 million yuan [12]. Group 2: Recent Developments - As of May 20, investors reported difficulties in withdrawing funds from Yongkun Gold, and the company's customer service became unresponsive [1][3]. - By May 23, Yongkun Gold and its parent company were placed on the market supervision authority's list of abnormal operations, indicating serious operational issues [3][17]. - The physical stores of Yongkun Gold have closed, with reports of the company moving out of its locations [10][11]. Group 3: Investor Reactions - Investors expressed frustration and confusion at the company's sudden inability to fulfill withdrawal requests, leading to heated disputes with company representatives [4][6]. - Many investors had previously increased their investments based on the company's promises of guaranteed returns and successful past transactions [7][9]. Group 4: Industry Context - The collapse of Yongkun Gold is not an isolated incident; other companies in the gold investment sector have also faced similar issues, highlighting systemic risks in the industry [19][20]. - Common fraudulent practices in the gold investment sector include high promised returns and the use of "gold custody" schemes that lack proper regulatory oversight [20][21]. - Regulatory bodies have issued warnings about the risks associated with unlicensed gold investment schemes, emphasizing the importance of verifying the legitimacy of investment firms [20][21].