操作上，依托支撑布局多单，重点关注压力位突破情况。今天不到4140附近不做空，只要市场回踩，则以多为主。下方回调4070-4060 分批多，损10点，看4090-4110；上方触及4140-4145压制空，损10点，看4120-4100； 关键支撑：日线第一支撑4070，第二支撑（强拐点）在4050附近； 核心压制：4140-4145顶底转换； 来源：万乾金wqj068 上周五暴跌后，市场进入新震荡区间，月线宽幅震荡格局将持续至年底美联储纪要发布。黄金自上周五行情击穿4140，前期支撑变阻 力，但日线拐点4030未破，回踩转向尚未确认，倾向"反弹高空"以推动更深调整。 文/万乾论金 ...

Group 1 - The current gold market lacks a clear trend reversal signal despite a significant bullish daily candle, as the volume release is not sustained [1][3] - Short-term and long-term moving averages are still in a divergence repair phase, indicating that the strong single candlestick has not fully reversed the previous consolidation pattern [1] - The market is influenced by fluctuating expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, contributing to increased uncertainty in gold prices [1] Group 2 - The recent geopolitical tensions have shown alternating phases of easing and localized stress, leading to a pulse-like inflow of safe-haven funds without stable buying support [1] - The resistance level is identified at 4050-4070, corresponding to the upper boundary of the previous consolidation platform and the upper Bollinger Band, while key support is at 3980-3960, aligning with the 10-day moving average [3] - Short-term strategies suggest focusing on buying on dips and selling on rebounds, with close monitoring of international dynamics and Federal Reserve policy signals to adjust stop-loss and take-profit levels accordingly [3]

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuations in gold prices indicate a typical "high-level digestion phase" rather than a simple collapse, with current prices around $3940, down approximately 10% from the historical high of $4381.29 reached last week [1]. Group 1: Market Trends - Gold prices experienced a decline of nearly 1.3% on Tuesday, with a low point of $3886, marking a three-week low [2]. - The market is currently facing a conflict between rising risk appetite leading to a withdrawal of safe-haven funds and long-term factors such as the Federal Reserve's impending interest rate cuts, cooling employment, and slowing economic momentum, which continue to support gold prices [1]. Group 2: Technical Analysis - The current downward trend in gold prices is not yet over, with a potential target for adjustment around $3800, which aligns with the lower boundary of the daily range [2]. - Key resistance levels to watch in the short term are at $3972 and $4004, with a focus on maintaining short positions below $3960 [4]. - The 10-week moving average at $3830 may provide strong support before the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision [2].

Group 1: Market Overview - The current spot gold price is experiencing a rebound after a recent decline, influenced by profit-taking and technical adjustments, but supported by expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, geopolitical risks, and uncertainties from the U.S. government shutdown [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - The gold market showed a rebound after hitting a low of $4004 per ounce, with a peak at $4161 per ounce, indicating intense market competition [2] - The daily chart shows a narrowing Bollinger Band and a MACD crossover indicating a temporary halt in upward momentum, while the 4-hour chart suggests potential for a rebound despite a bearish crossover [2] - Key support levels are identified at $4005-$4000, while resistance levels are noted at $4180-$4175, with a breakout potentially leading to a return of bullish momentum [2] Group 3: Trading Recommendations - Suggested trading strategy includes attempting to short at $4145-$4150 and $4157-$4162, with protective measures at $4170 and target levels set at $4065-$4055 and $4030-$4020, while preparing to buy near $4007-$4013 [4]

Market Analysis - The gold price experienced fluctuations throughout the week, starting at $3884, rising to $4059, and closing at $4018, marking an 8-week consecutive bullish trend [1] - Technical indicators such as TRIX and MACD suggest a bullish outlook on the weekly chart, while daily indicators show mixed signals with a potential for a downward correction [1] Trading Recommendations - For the upcoming week, a trading strategy is suggested to sell gold around $4035-$4038 with a stop loss at $4043 and a target profit at $4000 [3] - The market is characterized by rapid changes, and real-time strategies are emphasized for trading decisions [3]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market has experienced a significant turning point, with a strong rally leading to a breakthrough of the 3350-3360 resistance zone, culminating in a single-day increase of 57 points to reach a high of 3378 [1]. Technical Analysis - The market is showing clear bullish signals, with the daily moving average system shifting to a positive trend. Previous resistance levels have transformed into strong support, and short-term moving average pressures have been decisively overcome, laying a solid foundation for a medium-term uptrend [1]. Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy focuses on identifying buying opportunities during pullbacks, particularly around the key support level of 3360, which is expected to act as a significant support area following its previous resistance status. The immediate target for bullish momentum is set at the psychological level of 3400 [1]. - Specific trading recommendations include entering long positions when gold prices retreat to the 3360-3355 range, with a target set at 3375-3385 and a strict stop-loss at 3348. If prices remain below 3360, traders are advised to wait for clearer trend confirmation signals before making further trading decisions [3].

Core Impact - Gold prices are trading around $3333 per ounce, supported by a weaker dollar and declining U.S. Treasury yields, which enhance the appeal of non-yielding assets like gold [1] - The U.S. July CPI data met expectations, reinforcing market speculation for a Fed rate cut in September and increasing bets on further easing policies this year [1] - If global economic uncertainty persists and the Fed maintains its rate cut pace, gold is expected to remain strong in the long term [1] Multi-Cycle Trend Analysis Daily Level - The daily chart indicates that gold has stopped its consecutive downtrend, with upward momentum gradually accumulating [2] - A key signal for short-term stabilization is a close above the 5-day moving average, with resistance at $3370-$3375; a breakthrough could lead to testing the $3400 level [2] - If unable to break through, gold is likely to continue its consolidation [2] 4-Hour Level - The 4-hour cycle shows signs of a rebound, but confirmation is needed by breaking the mid-band resistance [2] - The ideal scenario involves a bottoming out followed by a rise above the mid-band to open further rebound potential [2] Specific Trading Strategies and Recommendations Long Position Strategy - It is recommended to enter long positions when gold prices pull back to around $3320 per ounce, with a stop loss set at $3320 and a target range of $3340-$3350 [4] Short Position Strategy - It is advised to short when gold prices rebound to the $3360-$3370 range, with a stop loss at $3390 and a target range of $3350-$3340 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The gold market experienced a slight upward trend, driven by a weaker US dollar and declining US Treasury yields, reinforcing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in September [1] Group 1: Market Performance - On August 14, spot gold fluctuated upwards, opening at $3349 per ounce and reaching a low of $3342 before climbing to a high of $3370 during the trading session, ultimately closing at $3355.90, marking a 0.24% increase [1] - The daily chart indicates a triangular convergence pattern, with a main upward trend, while caution is advised for potential fluctuations [1] Group 2: Technical Indicators - The MACD indicator shows a bullish crossover, but lacks significant momentum, and there are no clear volume signals [1] - The RSI is positioned around 53, indicating a neutral zone, suggesting that the market is in a consolidation phase awaiting direction from fundamental data [1] Group 3: Trading Strategies - Bullish strategy suggests buying on dips at the 3340-3345 range with a stop loss of 8 points and a target of 3365-3375 [3] - Bearish strategy recommends selling on rebounds at the 3395-3390 range with a stop loss of 8 points and a target of 3383-3372 [3]

Market Sentiment - The current gold market exhibits a "divided sentiment," where geopolitical tensions should typically drive gold prices up, but the strong U.S. dollar and Federal Reserve policy outlook are suppressing this reaction [1] - Overall market risk sentiment is cautious, indicating traders are hesitant about the geopolitical risk premium and are more inclined towards short-term trading driven by economic data [1] Technical Analysis - From a larger perspective, the weekly chart shows gold is in a high-level consolidation within an upward trend, with the current structure suggesting that the consolidation phase is not yet complete [2] - The weekly closing last week was bearish, but there is a high probability of a bullish close this week, supported by the 5-day and 10-day moving averages [2] - On the daily chart, gold has shown a strong rebound after piercing the middle band for three consecutive trading days, indicating strong support at this level [2] Key Levels and Strategies - The critical resistance level is at 3405; if this level is broken and sustained, significant pullbacks are unlikely [4] - If gold fails to break above 3405, traders should avoid chasing prices and instead look for support around 3360-65 and 3355-50 to continue buying on dips [4] - In the domestic market, gold prices experienced a decline last week, but the long-term bullish outlook remains intact; traders are advised to wait for pullbacks to enter long positions [4] - Current prices for domestic gold are around 786 for Shanghai gold and 780 for accumulated and financing gold, with potential targets of 800 and 795 respectively if a bullish trend emerges this week [4]