Core Viewpoint - The shift in investment from gold to platinum is driven by "gold fatigue," leading to a surge in platinum prices to over a decade high due to rapid global inventory depletion and supply constraints [1][7]. Group 1: Platinum Price Movement - On June 26, platinum prices surged by up to 4.6%, reaching the highest level since 2014, while palladium saw a rise of over 6%, marking its highest point since November of the previous year [1]. - Platinum futures continued to rise, reaching $1,420 per ounce [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - Contrary to expectations that tariff policies would dampen demand, actual market behavior shows increased accumulation in both China and the U.S., leading to a sharp decline in globally tradable platinum inventory [3][5]. - Approximately 500,000 ounces of platinum have flowed into U.S. warehouses, driven by profitable arbitrage opportunities and tariff concerns [5]. Group 3: Supply Constraints - The current market shows extreme supply tightness, indicated by the "spot premium" where platinum futures prices are significantly lower than spot prices [6]. - The implied borrowing cost for one-month platinum leasing remains high at an annualized rate of about 13%, well above the typical near-zero levels [6]. - Major platinum spot markets in London and Zurich have exhibited signs of tightness for several months, confirming the severity of supply shortages [6]. Group 4: Investment Trends - The rise in platinum prices is part of a broader trend of global currency devaluation, with investors seeking hedging tools beyond gold, leading to increased interest in platinum and silver [7]. - Platinum futures have seen a year-to-date increase of over 50% [7].

Group 1: Platinum Price Surge - Platinum prices have surpassed $1300, reaching a nearly five-year high with a year-to-date increase of 44% [1] - In comparison, gold prices have risen nearly 30% this year but are currently consolidating below $3400 per ounce, indicating some weakness [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in platinum is seen as a continuation of global currency devaluation trades, with investors seeking dollar-hedging tools beyond gold, leading to increased interest in silver and platinum [3] - The phenomenon termed "gold fatigue" suggests that as gold prices reach historical highs, investors are looking for opportunities further down the value chain [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a significant market deficit for platinum in 2025, with a shortfall of 966,000 ounces, exceeding previous estimates of 848,000 ounces [5] - Current above-ground inventories can only support three months of demand, indicating a structural deficit that is expected to persist until 2029 [5] - The imbalance between supply and demand is self-reinforcing, with rising prices leading to further consumption of market float inventory, potentially pushing the price discovery mechanism beyond market expectations [5] Group 4: Jewelry Market Demand - Automotive demand remains the primary driver of platinum consumption, accounting for 80% of global usage, but there is a notable increase in demand for platinum jewelry, particularly in China [5] - Analysts highlight a rebound in Chinese consumer interest in platinum jewelry, with a 26% year-on-year increase in platinum jewelry manufacturing, contrasting with a 32% decline in gold jewelry sales [6] Group 5: Diverging Opinions - Despite a generally bullish outlook on platinum, some analysts argue that the market is not as tight as it appears, predicting surpluses in 2024 and 2025 when excluding investment demand [8] - Concerns about global platinum inventory being sufficient challenge the narrative of a supply shortage, suggesting that the market may be misinterpreted [9]