本周四，金银携手创历史新高。美国政府关门、贸易紧张形势、美联储降息预期成为近期贵金属疯涨的推手。 周四美股午盘之初，纽约期银和伦敦现货银价刷新周二所创的盘中新高。COMEX 12月白银期货曾涨破53.60美元，日内涨约4.4%，现货白银曾靠近54.17美 元，日内涨逾2.1%。 市场分析师指出，在美国政府停摆进入第15天、经济数据发布中断的情况下，投资者正加速涌入黄金等避险资产。交易员目前认为，美联储在10月和12月各 降息25个基点的概率分别为98%和95%。 白银市场面临更为严峻的供应紧张。伦敦白银市场出现罕见的现货升水现象，库存较2021年下降三分之一，交易商甚至预订货运航班空运白银以利用价差套 利。 美国银行本周一将2026年的黄金目标价上调至5000美元/盎司，白银目标价设定为65美元，成为首家给出如此高位预测的主要投行。该行预计，政策不确定 性和结构性供应短缺将继续支撑贵金属价格。 美东时间10月16日美股午盘，黄金连续第四个交易日创盘中新高。纽约期金盘中首次突破4300美元大关，COMEX 12月黄金期货日内涨约2.5%。伦敦现货黄 金曾涨至4290美元上方，日内涨2%。黄金今年初以来已累涨约6 ...

Group 1: Platinum Price Surge - Platinum prices have surpassed $1300, reaching a nearly five-year high with a year-to-date increase of 44% [1] - In comparison, gold prices have risen nearly 30% this year but are currently consolidating below $3400 per ounce, indicating some weakness [1] Group 2: Market Dynamics - The rise in platinum is seen as a continuation of global currency devaluation trades, with investors seeking dollar-hedging tools beyond gold, leading to increased interest in silver and platinum [3] - The phenomenon termed "gold fatigue" suggests that as gold prices reach historical highs, investors are looking for opportunities further down the value chain [3] Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - The World Platinum Investment Council (WPIC) forecasts a significant market deficit for platinum in 2025, with a shortfall of 966,000 ounces, exceeding previous estimates of 848,000 ounces [5] - Current above-ground inventories can only support three months of demand, indicating a structural deficit that is expected to persist until 2029 [5] - The imbalance between supply and demand is self-reinforcing, with rising prices leading to further consumption of market float inventory, potentially pushing the price discovery mechanism beyond market expectations [5] Group 4: Jewelry Market Demand - Automotive demand remains the primary driver of platinum consumption, accounting for 80% of global usage, but there is a notable increase in demand for platinum jewelry, particularly in China [5] - Analysts highlight a rebound in Chinese consumer interest in platinum jewelry, with a 26% year-on-year increase in platinum jewelry manufacturing, contrasting with a 32% decline in gold jewelry sales [6] Group 5: Diverging Opinions - Despite a generally bullish outlook on platinum, some analysts argue that the market is not as tight as it appears, predicting surpluses in 2024 and 2025 when excluding investment demand [8] - Concerns about global platinum inventory being sufficient challenge the narrative of a supply shortage, suggesting that the market may be misinterpreted [9]

Group 1 - Platinum has surged 35% since April, breaking the $1100 resistance and reaching $1220, marking a four-year high, driven by Chinese buyers' shift from volatile gold to relatively stable platinum [1] - In April, China imported 11.5 tons of platinum, the highest monthly figure of the year, indicating strong demand from the world's largest platinum consumer [1][7] - The platinum market is facing a structural supply shortage, with analysts predicting that global demand will continue to exceed supply over the next decade [3][6] Group 2 - Retailers in Shenzhen's jewelry market have doubled in number within a month, reflecting the growing interest in platinum as a substitute for gold [3] - Retailers are experiencing increased pressure and longer wait times for platinum products as they transition from gold to platinum, which requires different manufacturing processes [4] - The first quarter of this year saw a more than doubling of demand for platinum bars and coins in China, surpassing North America as the largest retail investment market for platinum [7] Group 3 - Goldman Sachs noted a significant increase in total open interest in platinum futures, indicating a bullish sentiment among traders [5] - The platinum/gold ratio remains disappointing, but there is a belief that platinum will continue to lead due to its correlation with the automotive industry [5] - Long-term investors are heavily involved in the current price surge, with momentum traders entering the market following the breakout above $1100 [8][10] Group 4 - Supply tightness is expected to persist into June and July, with potential continuation until the end of 2025 if Chinese demand remains strong [10] - The sustainability of the current price rally will depend on whether the fundamentals can support it once speculative trading subsides [10]