Group 1: Gold Market Insights - The Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI) has reached its highest level since the 1970s, indicating strong market expectations for a global order reconstruction[2] - The surge in gold prices cannot be fully explained by traditional factors such as real interest rates, inflation expectations, and the US dollar index, suggesting a shift in investor sentiment towards geopolitical risks and financial system pressures[2][14] - Central banks have significantly increased gold purchases, with the scale reaching a 50-year high from 2022 to 2024, reflecting a global trend towards diversifying monetary systems[15] Group 2: US Economic Conditions - The US dollar index has declined significantly, dropping to 99.2, its lowest level in nearly three years, with an 8.5% decrease since the beginning of the year[19] - The "Big and Beautiful" bill passed by the US House of Representatives is expected to exacerbate the debt-inflation cycle, potentially weakening dollar assets in the medium to long term[19][18] - The US debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to soar to between 134% and 149% by 2035 due to the largest debt ceiling increase in history, amounting to $4 trillion[19] Group 3: Chinese Economic Strategy - China has adopted a dual expansionary policy approach, focusing on both fiscal and monetary measures to stabilize the economy, contrasting with the US's policy challenges[20] - The Chinese stock market is expected to outperform the bond market during the current interest rate reduction cycle, driven by monetary easing and economic recovery[20] - China's asset prices are anticipated to stabilize and gain upward momentum as the economy gradually recovers and inflation returns[20] Group 4: Market Strategies - The recommended investment strategy is a "barbell" approach, combining dividend stocks and small-cap growth stocks, as inflation has not yet returned[22][23] - The bond market is expected to experience volatility, with the 10-year government bond yield projected to fluctuate between 1.6% and 1.7%[29]

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes a long-term bullish outlook on gold, suggesting that the current era resembles a once-in-a-century global order restructuring period [2][9] - It highlights the limitations of traditional gold pricing models, which have failed to adequately explain recent price movements [4][12] - The article introduces the Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI) to quantify market expectations regarding the restructuring of global financial and political orders [6][10] Group 1: Traditional Gold Pricing Models - Traditional financial theories assert that gold prices are primarily driven by real interest rates, the US dollar index, and inflation expectations [4][12] - The relationship between real interest rates and gold prices has significantly weakened since 2022, with real rates rising from -1% to 2% while gold prices increased from $1,800 to over $3,000 [13][19] - The US dollar index has shown limited explanatory power for gold price movements, as it fluctuated within a narrow range while gold prices surged over 80% [16][19] Group 2: Drivers of Global Order Restructuring - The remarkable increase in gold prices reflects market expectations of a global order restructuring, characterized by currency diversification, geopolitical reshaping, and financial market rebalancing [5][22] - Central bank gold purchases reached a 50-year high from 2022 to 2024, with net purchases of 1,080 tons in 2022, 1,051 tons in 2023, and 1,045 tons in 2024 [23] - Geopolitical risks, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [26][28] Group 3: Gold Implied Order Reconstruction Index (GIORI) - The GIORI aims to quantify the unexplained volatility in gold prices, reflecting market expectations of non-traditional risks associated with global order restructuring [6][31] - The GIORI index has reached its highest level since the 1970s, indicating that market expectations have surpassed traditional cyclical perspectives [7][42] - Historical peaks of the GIORI index occurred during significant geopolitical events, such as the Iranian Revolution and the 2008 financial crisis, highlighting its relevance in assessing market sentiment [46][47][48]