Core Viewpoint - The international gold price experienced significant volatility, briefly surpassing the $4000 per ounce mark before retreating, indicating a potential upcoming market shift [1][3]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - The gold market is influenced by two opposing forces: rising expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which enhance gold's appeal as a safe-haven asset [3]. - Market expectations for a December rate cut have surged to 69%, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and weaken the dollar, thereby increasing gold prices [3]. - Recent U.S. economic data has shown surprising resilience, leading to a "higher for longer" interest rate policy from the Federal Reserve, which keeps real interest rates elevated and constrains gold prices [3]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Demand - Global demand for physical gold reached a record high of 1313 tons in Q3 2025, driven by institutional investors hedging risks and individuals reallocating assets amid inflation concerns [5]. - Central banks continued to purchase gold, with net purchases reaching 634 tons in the first three quarters of 2025, and China's central bank increasing its reserves to a historical high of 2304 tons [5]. - Recent outflows from gold ETFs, totaling $7.5 billion, indicate a shift in institutional strategies, with some investors taking profits while others position for long-term gains [5]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The $4000 mark serves as a critical psychological and technical resistance level, with significant selling pressure observed at this point [7]. - A breakthrough above the $4020-$4030 range could open up further upside potential towards $4100, while failure to maintain above $3950 may lead to a decline towards $3920 [7]. - Current price movements suggest a "triangle consolidation" pattern, indicating a potential for a significant directional breakout [7]. Group 4: Upcoming Indicators - The Federal Reserve's policy direction will be closely monitored, as any hints regarding interest rate adjustments could lead to substantial gold price fluctuations [9]. - U.S. inflation data will be pivotal for the Fed's decisions; a significant drop in inflation could reinforce rate cut expectations, while persistent inflation may reverse market sentiment [9]. - Geopolitical and fiscal risks, including the ongoing U.S. government shutdown and trade tensions, could further impact market dynamics and gold prices [10]. Group 5: Investment Strategies - Investors are advised to avoid emotional trading and excessive leverage, opting for a phased investment approach to manage costs effectively [12]. - Maintaining a diversified investment strategy is crucial, with gold representing a reasonable portion of an overall asset allocation [12]. - Recent inflows into Chinese gold ETFs suggest a strategic positioning by investors, indicating a potential shift in market sentiment towards gold [12].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].