文 | 银行螺丝钉 （转载请注明出处） 过去十年间,A股市场在2018年底、 2022-2024年期间均出现过五点几星的 机会。 2015年A股估值偏高，但2015-2016年期 间，黄金资产出现了五点几星的机会。 由此可见,平均每3~5年,总会在某一个 资产大类上出现五点几星的投资机会。 风险提示 本文仅为信息分享，不构成任何投资建议。市场有风险，投资需谨慎 。 基金投资组合策略过往业绩并不预示其未来表现 为其他客户创造的收益并不构成业绩表现的保证 ▼点击阅读原 文，免费学习大额家庭资产配置课程 这类五点几星的投资机会，往往在加息 周期中更容易出现。 巴菲特曾说过一句经典的话：当潮水退 去的时候,才知道谁在裸泳。这里的潮 水指的就是市场中的资金，也就是整体 的市场资金面。 通常在加息周期，市场流动性会出现收 缩，如同潮水开始褪去。这个阶段，部 分优质资产的价格会跌到相对便宜的位 置，更容易出现低估买入的机会。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has achieved a historic 14 consecutive days of gains, marking the second-longest streak in history, with multiple attempts to breach the 4100-point level [1] - Historical data indicates that while consecutive gains can boost market sentiment in the short term, they often lead to a rapid depletion of upward momentum, resulting in subsequent phase corrections [1] - The long-term trend of the stock market is influenced by economic fundamentals and corporate value development, as evidenced by the recovery of the Japanese stock market post-2020 [1] Group 2 - The core factor influencing market fluctuations is the funding situation, with a significant increase in long-term capital participation in stock investments, particularly from insurance companies [2] - As of the end of Q3 2025, the book balance of insurance companies' stock investments reached 3.62 trillion yuan, an increase of 1.19 trillion yuan compared to the end of 2024, representing a nearly 50% growth [2] - Margin trading remains active, with a margin balance of 2.6 trillion yuan as of January 7, reflecting a 41% year-on-year growth, and financing buy-ins accounted for 11.47% of the total trading volume on that day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The market has entered a period of fluctuation after a previous correction, with A-share daily trading volume decreasing, which constrains upward momentum. Attention is focused on whether there will be positive signals from the funding side [1]. Group 1: Private Equity Fund Developments - The number of private equity securities investment fund registrations reached a year-to-date high of 342 last week, indicating that private equity funds will be an important source of incremental capital in the short term [2]. - There may still be incremental capital support for small-cap styles in the future, with a structural focus on quantitative securities products based on the CSI 1000 enhancement and quantitative stock selection [2]. Group 2: Trading Fund Dynamics - Since mid-November, the activity of trading funds has significantly decreased, but there is still internal differentiation: the trend of deleveraging in financing funds may be improving, with the average collateral ratio starting to rise [3]. - Financing fund trading activity has begun to recover, previously dropping to levels seen in mid-July, but passive foreign capital is still uncertain regarding a trend reversal [3]. - The options market remains cautious in pricing the short-term market outlook [3]. Group 3: Counter-Cyclical Capital Strength - Despite the lack of recovery in trading funds, incremental capital is currently in a "bottomed out" state, with a recent increase in counter-cyclical capital strength [4]. - The number of active buybacks has increased, primarily for cancellation and shareholder rights protection, and broad-based ETFs saw a net inflow of 8.3 billion yuan, continuing a two-week streak of net inflows [4]. Group 4: Marginal Changes in Various Funds - Retail investors experienced a net outflow of 46.3 billion yuan last week, with net inflows in sectors such as communication, electronics, and non-bank financials, while experiencing outflows in chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and machinery [5]. - Financing funds saw a net inflow of 19.6 billion yuan, with an activity level of 10.2%, primarily flowing into electronics, communication, and military sectors, while outflows were noted in computing and automotive sectors [5]. - Public funds and ETFs reported an increase in the number of fund registrations, primarily in bond and ETF funds, while ordinary and equity funds' equity positions stabilized and slightly increased [5]. Group 5: Market Observations - The average daily trading volume of northbound funds fell to 192.7 billion yuan last week, with a net inflow of 14 million yuan from active allocation foreign capital, while passive allocation foreign capital saw a net inflow of 46 million yuan [54]. - The secondary market saw a net reduction of 8.9 billion yuan in significant shareholder holdings last week, with a release of 39 billion yuan in market value [62].

Group 1: Regulatory Pressures - The regulatory environment has tightened significantly, particularly affecting the real estate and high-pollution chemical sectors, leading to increased pressure on A-shares [3][4] - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has mandated that real estate companies' financing leverage cannot exceed 50%, and has implemented stricter regulations on pre-sale funds [3] - The chemical sector faces heightened environmental regulations, with a requirement for high-pollution companies to complete environmental upgrades by the end of 2026, which is expected to compress profit margins [4] Group 2: Macroeconomic Challenges - Key macroeconomic indicators have shown signs of slowing, with industrial production growth dropping to 4.9% in October 2025, below market expectations [5] - Consumer spending and export figures have also weakened, with retail sales growth at 2.9% and exports declining by 1.1% in October, reflecting a lack of demand [5][6] - The significant contraction in social financing and new loans indicates a lack of vitality in the real economy, further impacting market confidence [6] Group 3: Market Supply and Demand Dynamics - The A-share market is experiencing increased supply pressure due to a resurgence in IPOs, with total IPO financing reaching 1003.59 billion yuan in 2025, which may divert funds from existing stocks [7] - Large-scale lock-up shares are being released, creating potential selling pressure on individual stocks and affecting overall market sentiment [7] - The liquidity in the market is insufficient, as indicated by a slowdown in the growth of narrow money (M1), which reflects reduced economic activity [8] Group 4: External Trade Environment - The external trade environment has become more uncertain due to escalating trade sanctions from the U.S., which have negatively impacted export expectations for Chinese companies [9] - In October 2025, China's export growth turned negative at -1.1%, significantly down from the previous year's growth, indicating challenges in the external market [9] Group 5: Investment Strategies for Retail Investors - Retail investors are advised to avoid high-risk sectors such as traditional real estate and high-pollution chemicals, focusing instead on sectors with government support [10][11] - Emphasis is placed on sectors like technology innovation and green energy, which are aligned with policy directions and expected to perform better [11][12] - Investors should maintain a cautious approach, controlling their positions and avoiding blind bottom-fishing in declining sectors [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures generally declined. The T2603 contract dropped 0.34%, and its trading volume increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. Key - term Treasury bond yields in China generally rose, while overseas Treasury bond yields in the US and Germany mostly declined, and those in Japan increased. Given that the prices of Treasury bond futures broke through support levels, it is recommended to wait and see [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price Changes**: The prices of all Treasury bond futures contracts (TS2603, TS2606, TF2603, TF2606, T2603, T2606, TL2603, TL2606) declined. The decline rates ranged from - 0.05% to - 0.76%. For example, the T2603 contract fell 0.34% [2] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: Trading volumes varied, and open interest also changed. For instance, the open interest of the T2603 contract decreased by 4,826, while that of the TL2603 contract increased by 9,784 [2] - **Inter - period Spread**: The inter - period spreads of some contracts changed. For example, the inter - period spread of the TS2603 - TS2606 contract changed from - 0.048 to - 0.046 [2] - **IRR**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of Treasury bond futures was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2] 3.2 Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day rate increased by 2bp, DR007 rate decreased by 0.33bp, and GC007 rate decreased by 1.2bp [2] - **China's Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: Key - term Treasury bond yields generally rose. The 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 3.01bp to 1.86%. The spread between long - and short - term (10 - 2) Treasury bond yields was 34.54bp [2] - **Overseas Key - term Treasury Bond Yields**: The 10Y US Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield decreased by 1bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield increased by 1.4bp [2] 3.3 Macro News and Strategy - **Domestic Macro**: The central bank increased open - market operations and had a net daily withdrawal of 972 billion yuan. The Shibor short - term varieties mostly declined, and the market liquidity remained loose. The central bank conducted a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation, with a net monthly injection of 100 billion yuan, for the 9th consecutive month of increased roll - over. Market expectations for the implementation of loose policies this year are low. Industrial production, consumption growth slowed down, investment decline widened, mainly affected by the real estate sector [3] - **Overseas Macro**: US PPI in September increased 0.3% month - on - month, with energy costs driving up inflation. Core PPI growth rate of 0.1% was lower than expected. Many Fed officials signaled interest - rate cuts, and US Treasury bond yields continued to fall. The Fed's Beige Book showed that economic activity was basically flat, with some areas at risk of a slowdown. Japan plans to issue at least 11.5 trillion yen in new bonds, raising concerns about public finances and rising yields [3] - **Strategy**: Given that the prices of Treasury bond futures broke through support levels, it is recommended to wait and see [3]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current economic fundamental data is weak. The central bank will continue to maintain a supportive monetary policy stance, and market liquidity is expected to remain reasonably abundant, which has a certain support for the prices of Treasury bond futures. The current main contract has shifted to the March 26th contract, and it is recommended to plan for the contract shift [3]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices showed mixed trends. The T2603 contract fell by 0.11%, and the open interest increased. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to Treasury bond futures contracts was relatively high, indicating certain arbitrage opportunities [2]. | Contract | Yesterday's Closing Price | Previous Day's Closing Price | Change | Change Rate | Open Interest | Trading Volume | Open Interest Change | Inter - period Spread | Inter - period Spread Previous Value | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TS2603 | 102.422 | 102.418 | 0.004 | 0.00% | 61793 | 33194 | 4247 | - 0.048 | - 0.054 | | TS2606 | 102.470 | 102.472 | - 0.002 | 0.00% | 2226 | 288 | 69 | | | | TF2603 | 105.980 | 105.995 | - 0.015 | - 0.01% | 129492 | 82221 | 14505 | 0.020 | 0.015 | | TF2606 | 105.960 | 105.980 | - 0.020 | - 0.02% | 3177 | 1872 | 806 | | | | T2603 | 108.220 | 108.335 | - 0.115 | - 0.11% | 234165 | 115185 | 24142 | - 0.055 | 0.005 | | T2606 | 108.275 | 108.330 | - 0.055 | - 0.05% | 6562 | 3430 | 977 | | | | TL2603 | 115.16 | 115.58 | - 0.420 | - 0.36% | 135646 | 123788 | 16728 | - 0.150 | - 0.050 | | TL2606 | 115.31 | 115.63 | - 0.320 | - 0.28% | 11304 | 6154 | 2138 | | | Spot Market - On the previous trading day, short - term market interest rates generally declined. The SHIBOR 7 - day rate dropped 1.4bp, the DR007 rate dropped 3.28bp, and the GC007 rate dropped 2bp. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China showed mixed trends. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose 0.96bp to 1.83%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 30.12bp [2]. | Key - term Treasury Bonds | Yesterday's Yield | Previous Day's Yield | Change (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 6M | 1.41 | 1.41 | 0.1 | | 1Y | 1.41 | 1.40 | 0.24 | | 2Y | 1.43 | 1.43 | - 0.25 | | 5Y | 1.60 | 1.59 | 0.5 | | 7Y | 1.71 | 1.70 | 1.03 | | 10Y | 1.83 | 1.82 | 0.96 | | 20Y | 2.18 | 2.16 | 1.7 | | 30Y | 2.17 | 2.16 | 1.35 | | Yield Spread (bp) (10 - 2) | 30.12 | 29.33 | | | Yield Spread (bp) (10 - 5) | 27.92 | 26.64 | | | Yield Spread (bp) (5 - 2) | 2.20 | 2.69 | | | Yield Spread (bp) (30 - 10) | 34.23 | 33.84 | | Overseas Market - On the previous trading day, the 10 - year US Treasury bond yield dropped 3bp, the 10 - year German Treasury bond yield rose 0bp, and the 10 - year Japanese Treasury bond yield rose 1.9bp [2]. | Overseas Key - term Treasury Bonds | Yesterday's Yield | Previous Day's Yield | Change (bp) | Internal - External Yield Spread (bp) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | US 2Y | 3.43 | 3.46 | - 3.0 | - 200.2 | | US 5Y | 3.55 | 3.61 | - 6.0 | - 195.2 | | US 10Y | 4.01 | 4.04 | - 3.0 | - 218.1 | | US 30Y | 4.67 | 4.68 | - 1.0 | - 249.9 | | German 2Y | 2.000 | 1.990 | 1.0 | - 57.2 | | German 10Y | 2.770 | 2.770 | 0.0 | - 94.1 | | Japanese 2Y | 0.975 | 0.959 | 1.6 | 45.3 | | Japanese 10Y | 1.811 | 1.792 | 1.9 | 1.8 | Macro - news and Industry Information - The central bank increased open - market operations, with a net daily withdrawal of 1054 billion yuan and a 1 - trillion - yuan MLF operation, resulting in a net monthly investment of 100 billion yuan, which was the 9th consecutive month of increased roll - over. Shibor short - end varieties mostly declined, and the market capital was loose. The US September PPI increased 0.3% month - on - month due to rising energy costs, and the core PPI growth rate of 0.1% was lower than expected. Many Fed officials signaled interest - rate cuts, and US Treasury bond yields continued to fall. In October, household and corporate deposits continued to flow to the non - bank sector with higher returns. Industrial production and consumption growth rates slowed down year - on - year, and the investment decline widened, mainly due to the real - estate drag. The decline in commercial - housing sales widened, and second - hand housing prices continued to fall month - on - month and were still in the adjustment process [3]. - From January to October, China's full - sector foreign direct investment was $144.34 billion, a year - on - year increase of 6.2%; the newly - signed contract value of foreign - contracted projects was $210.7 billion, a year - on - year increase of 18.6%. Local government special bonds are in a peak period of issuance for government investment funds. Guangdong Province, Sichuan Province, and Shanghai will issue a total of 20 billion yuan of special bonds on November 28th, which will be injected into the Guangdong Provincial Government Investment Fund, Chengdu Venture Capital Fund, and Shanghai Future Industry Fund respectively. The total scale of local government special bonds invested in government investment funds currently disclosed will exceed 80 billion yuan [3]. - US President Trump said that his team had made great progress in ending the Russia - Ukraine conflict, and the 28 - point peace plan initially drafted by the US had been refined, with only a few differences remaining. Trump instructed envoy Steve Witkoff to go to Moscow to consult with Russian President Putin. Ukrainian National Security and Defense Council Secretary Umerov said that the Ukrainian side expected President Zelensky to visit the US as soon as possible in November to complete the final steps and reach an agreement with US President Trump [3]. - In the money market, most interest rates showed mixed trends. The weighted average interest rate of pledged repurchase in the inter - bank deposit market for the 1 - day variety decreased by 0.07BP to 1.318%, the 7 - day variety decreased by 1.62BP to 1.4541%, and the 14 - day variety decreased by 1.11BP to 1.5317%. The weighted average interest rate of inter - bank lending in the inter - bank deposit market for the 1 - day variety increased by 0.04BP to 1.3386%, the 7 - day variety decreased by 0.21BP to 1.4922%, the 14 - day variety increased by 3.35BP to 1.5503%, and the 1 - month variety decreased by 9.6BP to 1.504%. US Treasury bond yields fell across the board. The 2 - year US Treasury bond yield fell 3.62 basis points to 3.459%, the 3 - year yield fell 2.23 basis points to 3.452%, the 5 - year yield fell 2.79 basis points to 3.564%, the 10 - year yield fell 3.07 basis points to 3.996%, and the 30 - year yield fell 2.05 basis points to 4.650% [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures rose and fell unevenly, with the T2506 contract rising 0.02% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China and overseas also had different changes. With the progress of Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite increased, and the prices of Treasury bond futures declined, with the possibility of increased short - term fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The prices of Treasury bond futures on the previous trading day showed mixed trends. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.02%, while the TF2509 contract fell 0.08%. The trading volume of each contract also varied, with the TL2506 having a trading volume of 67,722 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of each contract changed. Some contracts decreased, such as the TS2506 with a decrease of 7,948, while others increased, like the TS2509 with an increase of 1,873 [2] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of each contract also had different changes. For example, the inter - delivery spread of TS2506 increased from - 0.128 to - 0.110 [2] - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate decreased by 0.4bp, DR007 interest rate increased by 0.16bp, and GC007 interest rate increased by 0bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds in China**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China also showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.43bp to 1.67%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.29bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds Overseas**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds overseas also had different changes. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 8bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 0bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3bp [2] Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 15, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The same day, 158.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 219.1 billion yuan [3] - **Market Environment**: The Sino - US talks achieved substantial progress, canceling some additional tariffs and establishing a Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. The market risk appetite increased. The US April unadjusted CPI rose 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, and the US Treasury bond yields declined [3] - **Economic Data**: Affected by external shocks and seasonal changes, the manufacturing prosperity level in April declined. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down. The government bonds promoted the social financing stock to increase by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, both with accelerated growth rates compared to the previous month [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond falling to 1.627%. The central bank's open - market operation had a net injection of 1586 billion yuan, and previous double - cuts (lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the 7 - day reverse repurchase operating rate by 10bp) pushed short - term bond interest rates to decline and the market liquidity to loosen [3]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected. The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. The yield of US treasury bonds rebounded. China decided to contact the US, and the focus will be on the progress of the negotiations [3]. - Affected by external shocks and seasonal changes, the manufacturing prosperity level declined in April, and the real estate market is not yet stable. It is expected that the central bank will increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation, and the market liquidity is expected to remain loose, which will continue to support short - term treasury bond futures prices. The current long - short spread is at a historical low, and the compression space is limited. If the tariff negotiation makes progress, the volatility of long - term treasury bond futures prices may increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.19%, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield declined 1.28bp to 1.63% [2]. - **Position and Volume Changes**: The position of T2506 increased, while some contracts had position decreases and increases. For example, the position of TS2506 decreased by 3076, and that of TS2509 increased by 3615 [2]. - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally declined. SHIBOR 7 - day interest rate declined 6.7bp, DR007 interest rate declined 6.62bp, and GC007 interest rate declined 7.1bp [2]. - **Key - Term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of China's key - term treasury bonds generally declined, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 15.53bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Key - Term Treasury Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 11bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield declined 3bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield rose 2.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operation**: On May 8, the central bank carried out a 1586 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation with a net injection of 1586 billion yuan [3]. - **International Relations**: China and Russia deepened their strategic partnership, and China and the US will conduct tariff negotiations. The UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement on some items, and the UK central bank cut interest rates [3]. - **Domestic Policies**: The financial regulatory authority established a mechanism to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and the balance of private enterprise credit loans increased year - on - year [3].