Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures rose and fell unevenly, with the T2506 contract rising 0.02% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China and overseas also had different changes. With the progress of Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite increased, and the prices of Treasury bond futures declined, with the possibility of increased short - term fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The prices of Treasury bond futures on the previous trading day showed mixed trends. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.02%, while the TF2509 contract fell 0.08%. The trading volume of each contract also varied, with the TL2506 having a trading volume of 67,722 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of each contract changed. Some contracts decreased, such as the TS2506 with a decrease of 7,948, while others increased, like the TS2509 with an increase of 1,873 [2] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of each contract also had different changes. For example, the inter - delivery spread of TS2506 increased from - 0.128 to - 0.110 [2] - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate decreased by 0.4bp, DR007 interest rate increased by 0.16bp, and GC007 interest rate increased by 0bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds in China**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China also showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.43bp to 1.67%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.29bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds Overseas**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds overseas also had different changes. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 8bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 0bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3bp [2] Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 15, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The same day, 158.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 219.1 billion yuan [3] - **Market Environment**: The Sino - US talks achieved substantial progress, canceling some additional tariffs and establishing a Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. The market risk appetite increased. The US April unadjusted CPI rose 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, and the US Treasury bond yields declined [3] - **Economic Data**: Affected by external shocks and seasonal changes, the manufacturing prosperity level in April declined. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down. The government bonds promoted the social financing stock to increase by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, both with accelerated growth rates compared to the previous month [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond falling to 1.627%. The central bank's open - market operation had a net injection of 1586 billion yuan, and previous double - cuts (lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the 7 - day reverse repurchase operating rate by 10bp) pushed short - term bond interest rates to decline and the market liquidity to loosen [3]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected. The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. The yield of US treasury bonds rebounded. China decided to contact the US, and the focus will be on the progress of the negotiations [3]. - Affected by external shocks and seasonal changes, the manufacturing prosperity level declined in April, and the real estate market is not yet stable. It is expected that the central bank will increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation, and the market liquidity is expected to remain loose, which will continue to support short - term treasury bond futures prices. The current long - short spread is at a historical low, and the compression space is limited. If the tariff negotiation makes progress, the volatility of long - term treasury bond futures prices may increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.19%, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield declined 1.28bp to 1.63% [2]. - **Position and Volume Changes**: The position of T2506 increased, while some contracts had position decreases and increases. For example, the position of TS2506 decreased by 3076, and that of TS2509 increased by 3615 [2]. - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally declined. SHIBOR 7 - day interest rate declined 6.7bp, DR007 interest rate declined 6.62bp, and GC007 interest rate declined 7.1bp [2]. - **Key - Term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of China's key - term treasury bonds generally declined, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 15.53bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Key - Term Treasury Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 11bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield declined 3bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield rose 2.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operation**: On May 8, the central bank carried out a 1586 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation with a net injection of 1586 billion yuan [3]. - **International Relations**: China and Russia deepened their strategic partnership, and China and the US will conduct tariff negotiations. The UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement on some items, and the UK central bank cut interest rates [3]. - **Domestic Policies**: The financial regulatory authority established a mechanism to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and the balance of private enterprise credit loans increased year - on - year [3].