近日，A股创下历史性的14连涨，位列历史记录第二，盘中更是屡次冲击4100点。连涨时刻后，后市会 如何表现？未来又该如何投资？ 回顾A股历史，90年代初期曾经出现过99连涨，那是历史上最长的连涨纪录。不过那时股市还处在非常 早期的起步阶段，成交额和参与者都比较少，参考价值不大。在2000年以后，沪指一共发生过4次持续 10天及以上的连涨。 风险提示：广发基金本着勤勉尽责、诚实守信、投资者利益优先的原则开展基金投顾业务，但并不保证 各投顾组合一定盈利，也不保证最低收益。投资者参与基金投顾业务，存在本金亏损的风险。基金投资 组合策略的风险特征与单只基金产品的风险特征存在差异。基金投顾业务项下各投资组合策略的业绩仅 代表过往业绩，不预示未来的业绩表现，为其他投资者创造的收益也不构成业务表现的保证。因基金投 资顾问业务尚处于试点阶段，存在因基金投顾机构的试点资格被取消不能继续提供服务的风险。投资前 请认真阅读投顾协议、策略说明书等法律文件，充分了解投顾业务详情及风险特征，选择适合自身的组 合策略，投资须谨慎 资讯所属栏目还有更多独家策划、专家专栏，免费查阅>> 广发基金投顾团队分析指出，连涨虽然能在短期引爆市场的情绪 ...

关注点2：交易型资金内部仍有分化 11月中上旬市场调整以来，交易性资金活跃度显著回落，上周我们观察到其内部仍有分化：1）融资资金去杠杆的趋势或有改善，市场平均担保比例已开 始回升；2）融资资金交易活跃度开始回升，此前一度回落至7月中上旬水平；但是3）被动型外资或难言趋势回流，仍有待观察；4）期权市场对后续市场 短期走势定价仍较为谨慎。 关注点3：逆势资金强度有所回升 来源：市场资讯 （来源：华泰证券策略研究） 近期市场在前期回调后再度进入震荡期，A股日成交额较此前有所回落，对市场向上动量形成约束，我们关注资金面能否看到积极信号，目前来看：1） 交易性资金内部仍有所分化，融资资金此前杠杆去化或基本到位，上周情绪有所回暖，私募证券基金备案数目创年内新高，但被动外资、期权市场仍有待 观察；2）逆势资金力度增强，上周主动回购数目增多、宽基ETF继续净流入；3）资金面当前呈现"下有底"状态，增量需进一步观察。 关注点1：上周私募证券投资基金备案数量创下年内新高 10月以来私募证券投资基金备案数目开始修复，上周根据中国基金业协会官网数据统计，共有342支私募证券投资基金完成备案，单周备案数目创下年内 新高，这意味着短期看 ...

三大利空集体来袭，A股承压？踏空者或因此避险，散户如何应对 2025年的A股市场真是让散户朋友们捏了把汗，刚熬过年初的震荡调整，最近盘面又变得沉甸甸的——指数上攻乏力，热门 板块轮流跳水，手里的股票不涨反跌，没入场的踏空者更是不敢轻易出手。打开财经新闻，各种利空消息似乎凑到了一 起：行业监管政策收紧、宏观经济数据不及预期、市场资金面承压，三重压力叠加让A股蒙上阴影。不少散户疑惑：这到底 是短期回调的"纸老虎"，还是新一轮下跌的信号？踏空者该趁机避险，还是抄底入场？持有股票的又该如何守住收益、避 开雷区？ 今天就聊聊2025年官方实锤的几大核心利空，再给散户们送上接地气的应对攻略，所有信息都有权威来源，绝不瞎忽悠。 一、行业监管"亮红灯"：两大板块迎政策收紧，利空落地 2025年下半年，监管层针对重点行业的调控政策密集出台，直接击中部分板块的核心逻辑，成为A股局部承压的重要原因。 房地产板块首当其冲。2025年11月15日，住建部发布《关于进一步规范房地产开发企业融资行为的通知》，明确要求房企 融资杠杆率不得超过50%，同时加强预售资金监管，严禁挪用预售款。紧接着11月20日，多地跟进暂停第三套及以上住房 商业 ...

2025年11月27日申万期货品种策略日报-国债 | | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.370 | 102.416 | 105.735 | 105.745 | 107.850 | 107.910 | 114.29 | 114.5 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.422 | 102.470 | 105.980 | 105.960 | 108.220 | 108.275 | 115.16 | 115.31 | | | 涨跌 | -0.052 | -0.054 | -0.245 | -0.215 | -0.370 | -0.365 | -0.870 ...

| | | | | 申银万国期货研究所 唐广华（从业资格号：F3010997；交易咨询号：Z0011162） | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | tanggh@sywgqh.com.cn 021-50586292 | | | | | | | | | TS2603 | TS2606 | TF2603 | TF2606 | T2603 | T2606 | TL2603 | TL2606 | | | 昨日收盘价 | 102.422 | 102.470 | 105.980 | 105.960 | 108.220 | 108.275 | 115.16 | 115.31 | | | 前日收盘价 | 102.418 | 102.472 | 105.995 | 105.980 | 108.335 | 108.330 | 115.58 | 115.63 | | | 涨跌 | 0.004 | -0.002 | -0.015 | -0.020 | -0.115 | -0.055 | -0.420 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of Treasury bond futures rose and fell unevenly, with the T2506 contract rising 0.02% and its trading volume decreasing. The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, with no arbitrage opportunities. Short - term market interest rates also showed mixed trends. The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China and overseas also had different changes. With the progress of Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite increased, and the prices of Treasury bond futures declined, with the possibility of increased short - term fluctuations [2][3] 3. Summary by Related Contents Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: The prices of Treasury bond futures on the previous trading day showed mixed trends. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.02%, while the TF2509 contract fell 0.08%. The trading volume of each contract also varied, with the TL2506 having a trading volume of 67,722 [2] - **Open Interest**: The open interest of each contract changed. Some contracts decreased, such as the TS2506 with a decrease of 7,948, while others increased, like the TS2509 with an increase of 1,873 [2] - **Inter - delivery Spreads**: The inter - delivery spreads of each contract also had different changes. For example, the inter - delivery spread of TS2506 increased from - 0.128 to - 0.110 [2] - **IRR of CTD Bonds**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of each Treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2] Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR7 - day interest rate decreased by 0.4bp, DR007 interest rate increased by 0.16bp, and GC007 interest rate increased by 0bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds in China**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds in China also showed mixed trends. The 10Y - term Treasury bond yield decreased by 0.43bp to 1.67%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.29bp [2] - **Yields of Key - term Treasury Bonds Overseas**: The yields of key - term Treasury bonds overseas also had different changes. The US 10Y Treasury bond yield decreased by 8bp, the German 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 0bp, and the Japanese 10Y Treasury bond yield increased by 2.3bp [2] Macro and Policy Information - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 645 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on May 15, with an operation rate of 1.40%. The same day, 158.6 billion yuan of reverse repurchases and 125 billion yuan of MLF matured, resulting in a net withdrawal of 219.1 billion yuan [3] - **Market Environment**: The Sino - US talks achieved substantial progress, canceling some additional tariffs and establishing a Sino - US economic and trade consultation mechanism. The market risk appetite increased. The US April unadjusted CPI rose 2.3% year - on - year, lower than expected for the third consecutive month, and the US Treasury bond yields declined [3] - **Economic Data**: Affected by external shocks and seasonal changes, the manufacturing prosperity level in April declined. Exports (in US dollars) increased by 8.1% year - on - year, with the growth rate slowing down. The government bonds promoted the social financing stock to increase by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, both with accelerated growth rates compared to the previous month [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The prices of treasury bond futures generally rose, with the yield of the 10 - year treasury bond active bond falling to 1.627%. The central bank's open - market operation had a net injection of 1586 billion yuan, and previous double - cuts (lowering the deposit reserve ratio by 0.5 percentage points and the 7 - day reverse repurchase operating rate by 10bp) pushed short - term bond interest rates to decline and the market liquidity to loosen [3]. - The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged as expected. The UK and the US reached an agreement on tariff trade agreement terms, and the EU announced a retaliatory list of 95 billion euros of US goods. The yield of US treasury bonds rebounded. China decided to contact the US, and the focus will be on the progress of the negotiations [3]. - Affected by external shocks and seasonal changes, the manufacturing prosperity level declined in April, and the real estate market is not yet stable. It is expected that the central bank will increase the intensity of monetary policy regulation, and the market liquidity is expected to remain loose, which will continue to support short - term treasury bond futures prices. The current long - short spread is at a historical low, and the compression space is limited. If the tariff negotiation makes progress, the volatility of long - term treasury bond futures prices may increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - **Price and Yield Changes**: On the previous trading day, treasury bond futures prices generally rose. For example, the T2506 contract rose 0.19%, and the yields of key - term treasury bonds in China generally declined. The 10Y treasury bond yield declined 1.28bp to 1.63% [2]. - **Position and Volume Changes**: The position of T2506 increased, while some contracts had position decreases and increases. For example, the position of TS2506 decreased by 3076, and that of TS2509 increased by 3615 [2]. - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of CTD bonds corresponding to the main contracts of treasury bond futures was at a low level, and there were no arbitrage opportunities [2]. Spot Market - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates generally declined. SHIBOR 7 - day interest rate declined 6.7bp, DR007 interest rate declined 6.62bp, and GC007 interest rate declined 7.1bp [2]. - **Key - Term Treasury Bond Yields**: The yields of China's key - term treasury bonds generally declined, and the long - short (10 - 2) treasury bond yield spread was 15.53bp [2]. Overseas Market - **Key - Term Treasury Bond Yields**: On the previous trading day, the 10Y US treasury bond yield rose 11bp, the 10Y German treasury bond yield declined 3bp, and the 10Y Japanese treasury bond yield rose 2.5bp [2]. Macro News - **Central Bank Operation**: On May 8, the central bank carried out a 1586 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation with a net injection of 1586 billion yuan [3]. - **International Relations**: China and Russia deepened their strategic partnership, and China and the US will conduct tariff negotiations. The UK and the US reached a tariff trade agreement on some items, and the UK central bank cut interest rates [3]. - **Domestic Policies**: The financial regulatory authority established a mechanism to support small and micro - enterprise financing, and the balance of private enterprise credit loans increased year - on - year [3].