Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report objectively reflects the research views of futures and securities companies on various commodity varieties, tracks hot - spot varieties, analyzes market investment sentiment, and summarizes investment driving logics. It presents the market mainstream views on different asset classes, including their price trends, strategy viewpoints, and corresponding利多 and利空 logics [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Data - **Commodities**: From May 12 to May 16, 2025, ethylene glycol had the highest weekly increase of 5.74% among commodities, while gold had the largest decline of 4.64%. Other commodities like iron ore, PTA, etc., also had different degrees of price changes [3]. - **Equities**: The NASDAQ Index had a significant increase of 7.15%, the Hang Seng Index rose 2.09%, while the CSI 500 decreased by 0.10% [3]. - **Bonds**: Chinese government bonds of 5 - year, 2 - year, and 10 - year terms all had price increases, with the 5 - year bond rising 4.06% [3]. - **Foreign Exchange**: The US Dollar Index increased by 0.56%, while the Euro - US Dollar exchange rate decreased by 0.76% [3]. 3.2 Commodity Views 3.2.1 Macro - Financial Sector - **Stock Index Futures**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 1 is bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors include successful Sino - US tariff negotiations, a relatively loose market capital supply, and growth in the social financing scale.利空 factors are net out - flow of industry funds, reduction in ETF shares, and conservative domestic policies [5]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Among 7 institutions' views, 0 are bullish, 2 are bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are the unchanged loose monetary policy and reduced expectations of fiscal stimulus.利空 factors are the recovery of market risk appetite and limited space for further interest - rate cuts [5]. 3.2.2 Energy Sector - **Crude Oil**: Among 9 institutions' views, 2 are bullish, 3 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are low global crude oil inventories, positive Sino - US negotiation results, and potential uncertainty in OPEC+ production increases.利空 factors are Iran's potential nuclear - deal signing and an increase in US crude oil inventories [6]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products Sector - **Palm Oil**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are the growth of Malaysian palm oil shipping data, increased export competitiveness, and potential replenishment demand in India.利空 factors are high inventory pressure and a decline in crude oil prices [6]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals Sector - **Copper**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are low copper concentrate TC, positive Sino - US tariff negotiations, and strong terminal demand.利空 factors are weak overseas demand and high inventory in China [7]. 3.2.5 Chemical Sector - **Soda Ash**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 2 are bearish, and 4 are neutral.利多 factors are concentrated maintenance in May and high exports.利空 factors are high industry inventory, new production capacity, and weak downstream demand [7]. 3.2.6 Precious Metals Sector - **Gold**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 0 are bearish, and 6 are neutral.利多 factors are the downgrade of the US sovereign credit rating and geopolitical uncertainties.利空 factors are the recovery of risk appetite and capital out - flow from gold ETFs [8]. 3.2.7 Black Metals Sector - **Iron Ore**: Among 7 institutions' views, 1 is bullish, 1 is bearish, and 5 are neutral.利多 factors are high molten iron production and low port inventory.利空 factors are expected increase in supply and weakening demand [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Today, the stock index had a volume - shrinking adjustment, with large - cap stock indices being relatively resilient. April's social data showed obvious government efforts, while corporate credit and household loans were weak, possibly due to previous tariffs, and demand recovery needs a boost. With the easing of Sino - US trade relations, the reduction of external uncertainties, clear expectations of domestic favorable policies to support and stabilize the stock market, and loose domestic and foreign liquidity, the index is supported. It is expected that the short - term downside space is limited. However, the current index is mainly driven by sentiment, and its sustainability needs to be observed. Therefore, it is recommended to mainly wait and see, and long positions can be held [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Today, the stock indices closed down collectively. For example, the CSI 300 index closed down 0.91%. In terms of capital, the trading volume of the two markets decreased by 16.4332 billion yuan. In the futures index market, all varieties declined with shrinking volume [4]. Important Information - In late April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, with the growth rate accelerating compared to last month [5]. Strategy Recommendation - Mainly wait and see [7]. Futures Index Market Observation | Index |主力日内涨跌幅（%） | 成交量（万手） | 成交量环比（万手） | 持仓量（万手） | 持仓量环比（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | IF | - 0.74 | 9.9618 | - 3.9806 | 25.0422 | - 2.3251 | | IH | - 0.38 | 5.5413 | - 2.0824 | 8.858 | - 1.2671 | | IC | - 1.10 | 9.8288 | - 3.2125 | 20.8397 | - 1.4134 | | IM | - 1.28 | 23.2044 | - 5.9446 | 32.2293 | - 2.7808 | [7] Spot Market Observation | Index | Value | | --- | --- | | 上证涨跌幅（%） | - 0.68 | | 深证涨跌幅（%） | - 1.62 | | 个股涨跌数比 | 0.36 | | 两市成交额（亿元） | 11523.95 | | 成交额环比（亿元） | - 1643.32 | [8]

Group 1: Hot News - China's countermeasures against US fentanyl tariffs remain effective [2] - China suspends the inclusion of 28 US entities in the export control list and 17 US entities in the unreliable entity list for 90 days [2] - The US adjusts tariffs on Chinese goods, revoking 91% of the tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days and 10% retained [2] - The US lowers the ad - valorem tax rate on small Chinese parcels and cancels the planned increase in the specific tax [2] - China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year in April, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year [3] - Newly issued corporate loans in April had an average interest rate of about 3.2%, 4 basis points lower than the previous month [3] - OPEC+ oil production in April increased by only 25,000 barrels per day, far below the target of 138,000 barrels per day [3] - OPEC maintains its forecast for global oil demand growth for this year and next [3] Group 2: Key Focus - Key commodities to focus on are urea, lithium carbonate, PVC, asphalt, and soybean oil [4] Group 3: Night - session Performance - Non - metallic building materials had a 2.64% increase; precious metals had a 29.98% increase; oilseeds and fats had an 11.78% increase; soft commodities had a 2.64% increase; non - ferrous metals had a 19.50% increase; coal, coke, and steel ore had a 13.21% increase; energy had a 2.58% increase; chemicals had a 13.35% increase; grains had a 1.68% increase; and agricultural and sideline products had a 2.64% increase [4] Group 4: Commodity Futures Plate Holdings - The document shows the changes in commodity futures plate holdings in the past five days [5] Group 5: Performance of Major Asset Classes - In the equity category, the Shanghai Composite Index had a daily increase of 0.86%, a monthly increase of 3.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 1.56%; the S&P 500 had a daily increase of 0.10%, a monthly increase of 5.81%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.19%; the Hang Seng Index had a daily increase of 2.30%, a monthly increase of 6.88%, and a year - to - date increase of 17.85% etc. [6] - In the fixed - income category, the 10 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.12%, a monthly decrease of 0.43%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.36%; the 5 - year Treasury bond futures had a daily decrease of 0.13%, a monthly decrease of 0.27%, and a year - to - date decrease of 0.69% etc. [6] - In the commodity category, the CRB commodity index had a daily decrease of 0.71%, a monthly increase of 3.34%, and a year - to - date increase of 0.57%; WTI crude oil had a daily decrease of 1.23%, a monthly increase of 8.08%, and a year - to - date decrease of 12.56% etc. [6] - In the other category, the US dollar index had a daily increase of 0.08%, a monthly increase of 1.43%, and a year - to - date decrease of 6.84%; the CBOE volatility index had no daily change, a monthly decrease of 26.23%, and a year - to - date increase of 5.01% [6]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - With the substantial progress in Sino - US talks, the market risk appetite has increased, leading to a decline in Treasury bond futures prices and potentially greater short - term fluctuations. The cancellation of some additional tariffs and the establishment of an economic and trade consultation mechanism have eased market避险 sentiment. Meanwhile, the market capital situation continues to loosen, and the manufacturing and export sectors show certain characteristics affected by external and seasonal factors [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - **Price and Volume**: On the previous trading day, Treasury bond futures prices generally declined. For example, the T2506 contract dropped by 0.17%. The trading volume and open interest of various contracts changed, with some contracts seeing a decrease in open interest, such as the T2506 contract [2]. - **Arbitrage Situation**: The IRR of the CTD bonds corresponding to the main Treasury bond futures contracts was at a low level, indicating no arbitrage opportunities [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Domestic Bond Yields**: Yields of key - term domestic Treasury bonds showed mixed changes. The 10Y Treasury bond yield rose by 0.92bp to 1.68%, and the long - short (10 - 2) Treasury bond yield spread was 19.96bp [2]. - **Short - term Market Interest Rates**: Short - term market interest rates showed mixed trends. SHIBOR 7 - day, DR007, and GC007 interest rates increased by 1.1bp, 1.03bp, and 1.2bp respectively [2]. 3.3 Overseas Market - **Overseas Bond Yields**: The 10Y US Treasury bond yield rose by 4bp, the 10Y German Treasury bond yield rose by 0bp, and the 10Y Japanese Treasury bond yield rose by 5.5bp [2]. 3.4 Macroeconomic News - **Central Bank Operations**: On May 14, the central bank conducted 920 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 103.5 billion yuan. Starting from May 15, the central bank lowered the deposit reserve ratio, expected to provide about 1 trillion yuan of long - term liquidity to the market [3]. - **Economic Data**: At the end of April, China's social financing scale stock increased by 8.7% year - on - year, and the M2 balance increased by 8% year - on - year, accelerating from the previous month. In the first four months, RMB loans increased by 10.06 trillion yuan, and the social financing scale increment was 16.34 trillion yuan. In April, the average interest rate of new corporate loans was about 3.2%, 4bp lower than the previous month [3]. - **Tariff Adjustment**: China adjusted the additional tariff measures on imported goods from the US, and the US adjusted the additional tariffs on Chinese goods, canceling 91% of the additional tariffs and implementing a 34% reciprocal tariff measure, with 24% of the tariffs suspended for 90 days [3]. 3.5 Industry Information - **Interest Rate Trends**: Most money market interest rates rose, and US Treasury bond yields increased across the board. The 10 - year Treasury bond active bond yield declined to 1.672%. The market capital situation continued to loosen, and the manufacturing and export sectors showed certain characteristics affected by external and seasonal factors [3].