1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of the black sector continued to diverge. The weekly increase of the rebar main contract was 0.1%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.4%, iron ore increased 1.7%, coke fell 3.3%, and coking coal dropped 7.5%. The supply - demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed that production and demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and the inventory depletion speed improved compared with the previous period. The molten iron data remained stable, and steel mills had little willingness to actively reduce or limit production. Molten iron production in November may run stably. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, with limited basis repair drive. Due to the lack of macro themes and the loosening of the coking coal supply end, the futures price weakened first [2]. - The steel market continued its dull trend. The downstream demand data of real estate, infrastructure, home appliances, etc. further weakened, and the overall black market was still suppressed by weak demand. In the short term, the contradictions in steel inventory, cost, and basis were relatively limited, making it difficult to provide a strong upward or downward driving force. The upward driving force of raw material restocking and the downward driving force of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of the next - stage market game. During the process of waiting for the accumulation of contradictions, the market may maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Monthly Data | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] 3.2 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2079600 | 79600 | - 3% | 2307900 | 144200 | - 6% | 5533400 | - 228300 | 24.32% | | Wire Rod | 789300 | 3600 | - 7% | 890000 | 15300 | - 8% | 1127000 | - 95800 | 18% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3160100 | 23500 | 1% | 3244200 | 108300 | 1% | 4021100 | - 84100 | 28% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 845300 | 5700 | 1.79% | 856200 | - 7700 | 1.06% | 1709800 | - 10900 | 15.64% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 1624800 | 42900 | 4.45% | 1648200 | 75500 | 4.33% | 1939700 | - 23400 | 4.51% | | Total | 8499100 | 155300 | - 0.06% | 8940000 | 34000 | - 1.22% | 14330000 | - 442500 | 20.48% | [5] 3.3 Steel Production Profit - On November 20, 2025, the profit changes of different steel products in different regions were as follows: for rebar - blast furnace, the changes in East China, North China, and Central China were - 3, 63, and 175 respectively; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the changes were - 7, 4, and 66; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the changes were - 52, - 73, and - 67; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the changes were 4, - 34, and 85 [20]. 3.4 Steel Demand 3.4.1 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities compared with the same period last year was 7% [27]. - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities was 14% [27]. 3.4.2 Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement of cement out - bound volume, with a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30]. - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30]. 3.4.3 Steel Exports - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year [36]. - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference fell again [36]. 3.5 Steel Inventory 3.5.1 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets [50]. - After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence stage, the futures market usually fluctuates upward. Currently, rebar production is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that the inventory will enter a normal depletion stage. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50]. 3.5.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable and weak. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory in East China remained stable. The poor inventory depletion of hot - rolled coil recently put some pressure on the spot market, causing the basis to weaken [54]. 3.5.3 Rebar Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar rebounded from a low level this week [60]. - The recent decrease in rebar inventory and the decline in the year - on - year inventory growth rate are conducive to the positive spread of the month - spread [60]. 3.5.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of hot - rolled coil changed little and was slightly at a discount. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the month - spread [62].