1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of the black sector continued to diverge. The weekly increase of the rebar main contract was 0.1%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.4%, iron ore increased 1.7%, coke fell 3.3%, and coking coal dropped 7.5%. The supply - demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed that production and demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and the inventory depletion speed improved compared with the previous period. The molten iron data remained stable, and steel mills had little willingness to actively reduce or limit production. Molten iron production in November may run stably. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, with limited basis repair drive. Due to the lack of macro themes and the loosening of the coking coal supply end, the futures price weakened first [2]. - The steel market continued its dull trend. The downstream demand data of real estate, infrastructure, home appliances, etc. further weakened, and the overall black market was still suppressed by weak demand. In the short term, the contradictions in steel inventory, cost, and basis were relatively limited, making it difficult to provide a strong upward or downward driving force. The upward driving force of raw material restocking and the downward driving force of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of the next - stage market game. During the process of waiting for the accumulation of contradictions, the market may maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Monthly Data | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] 3.2 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2079600 | 79600 | - 3% | 2307900 | 144200 | - 6% | 5533400 | - 228300 | 24.32% | | Wire Rod | 789300 | 3600 | - 7% | 890000 | 15300 | - 8% | 1127000 | - 95800 | 18% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3160100 | 23500 | 1% | 3244200 | 108300 | 1% | 4021100 | - 84100 | 28% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 845300 | 5700 | 1.79% | 856200 | - 7700 | 1.06% | 1709800 | - 10900 | 15.64% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 1624800 | 42900 | 4.45% | 1648200 | 75500 | 4.33% | 1939700 | - 23400 | 4.51% | | Total | 8499100 | 155300 | - 0.06% | 8940000 | 34000 | - 1.22% | 14330000 | - 442500 | 20.48% | [5] 3.3 Steel Production Profit - On November 20, 2025, the profit changes of different steel products in different regions were as follows: for rebar - blast furnace, the changes in East China, North China, and Central China were - 3, 63, and 175 respectively; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the changes were - 7, 4, and 66; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the changes were - 52, - 73, and - 67; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the changes were 4, - 34, and 85 [20]. 3.4 Steel Demand 3.4.1 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities compared with the same period last year was 7% [27]. - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities was 14% [27]. 3.4.2 Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement of cement out - bound volume, with a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30]. - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30]. 3.4.3 Steel Exports - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year [36]. - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference fell again [36]. 3.5 Steel Inventory 3.5.1 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets [50]. - After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence stage, the futures market usually fluctuates upward. Currently, rebar production is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that the inventory will enter a normal depletion stage. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50]. 3.5.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable and weak. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory in East China remained stable. The poor inventory depletion of hot - rolled coil recently put some pressure on the spot market, causing the basis to weaken [54]. 3.5.3 Rebar Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar rebounded from a low level this week [60]. - The recent decrease in rebar inventory and the decline in the year - on - year inventory growth rate are conducive to the positive spread of the month - spread [60]. 3.5.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of hot - rolled coil changed little and was slightly at a discount. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the month - spread [62].

Report Title and Information - The report is titled "Zhonghui Futures Steel Weekly Report: Short - term Range - bound, Awaiting Market Drivers", issued on November 14, 2025, by Zhonghui Futures Co., Ltd [1] Market Overview - This week, the black - sector showed slight differentiation. The main contract of rebar rose 0.6%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.3%, iron ore rose 1.6%, coke fell 5%, and coking coal fell 6.1%. The previously strong coal and coke weakened [2] - In terms of supply and demand, the production and demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined month - on - month, showing off - season characteristics. The inventory of hot - rolled coil and rebar in East China continued to rise against the season, creating real - world pressure [2] - Macroeconomic data remained poor, with the growth rates of real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak. The previously supportive supply side of coking coal loosened, and the policy emphasis on supply security changed market expectations [2] Strategy Suggestions - The recent steel market has been dull, with low prices reflecting weak fundamentals. Further market development requires new logical support [2] - The macro and anti - involution factors have temporarily ended. The upward drive of raw material replenishment and the downward drive of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of market games in the next stage [2] - The rebar 01 contract found support around 3000. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the upside is expected to be limited due to fundamental constraints [2] Steel Monthly Data (as of September 30, 2025) - Pig iron production was 6605000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; the cumulative production was 64586000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [4] - Crude steel production was 7349000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the cumulative production was 74625000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [4] - Steel production was 12421000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the cumulative production was 110385000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [4] - Steel imports were 50000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; the cumulative imports were 504000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [4] - Steel exports were 978000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the cumulative exports were 9774000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [4] Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data (as of November 14, 2025) | Product | Weekly Production (tons) | Production Change | Cumulative Production YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Cumulative Consumption YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 200000 | - 8540 | - 3% | 216370 | - 2150 | - 6% | 576170 | - 16370 | 29.33% | | Wire Rod | 78570 | - 7900 | - 7% | 87000 | - 1870 | - 8% | 122280 | - 8410 | 21% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 313660 | - 4500 | 1% | 313590 | - 710 | 1% | 410520 | 70 | 27% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 83960 | 120 | 1.84% | 86390 | 1070 | 1.13% | 172070 | - 2430 | 15.71% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 158190 | - 1540 | 4.33% | 157270 | - 2670 | 4.21% | 196310 | 920 | 5.27% | | Total | 834380 | - 22360 | 0% | 861000 | - 6000 | - 1.25% | 1477000 | - 26220 | 22.72% | [5] Steel Production Profit (as of November 13, 2025) | Region | Rebar - Blast Furnace Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Valley Electricity Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Flat Electricity Change | Hot - Rolled Coil - Blast Furnace Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 29 | 17 | - 86 | 3 | | North China | 39 | 5 | - 50 | - 56 | | Central China | 175 | 10 | - 123 | 75 | [20] Steel Demand Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 6.5% [27] - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 13.6% [27] Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement in cement out - bound volume, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30] - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with the absolute level comparable to the same period last year and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30] Steel Exports - In October, steel exports decreased month - on - month and were lower than the same period last year [36] - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference declined again [36] Steel Inventory and Basis Rebar - Rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets. After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence period, the futures market usually oscillates upward. With current rebar production lower than last year, inventory is expected to enter a normal destocking phase, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50] - The 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was weak at a low level this week, with limited fluctuations [60] Hot - Rolled Coil - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable. This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to rise slightly, reaching the highest level for the same period. Cold - rolled coil inventory was also at a relatively high level. According to seasonal patterns, there is a risk of further inventory increase, which will continue to suppress the basis [54] - The 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil changed little, showing a slight discount. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coil tend to be looser, suppressing the inter - month spread and preventing it from strengthening [65]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, specific ratings for different varieties are as follows: - **Prudently Bullish**: Threaded steel, hot-rolled coil, coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [1] - **Short-term Participation**: Iron ore [1] Core Views of the Report - **Steel Products**: Macro factors provide support, and prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term [3]. - **Iron Ore**: Negative feedback contradictions are accumulating, and ore prices are under pressure [7]. - **Coke**: Follows the coking coal price range [10]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply-side disturbances are present, and prices are expected to be relatively strong in the short term [14]. - **Ferroalloys**: The upward driving force is limited, and investors are advised to be cautious when chasing prices [18]. Summary by Variety Threaded Steel - **View**: Weekly production and apparent demand have both increased, and inventory has continued to decline. However, current supply and demand are both lower than last year, inventory is slightly high, the inventory reduction speed is average, and overall supply and demand are weak, with limited upward driving force [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Driven by the new rules for capacity replacement in the steel industry and regional production control, it may fluctuate and be relatively strong in the short term [1][5]. Hot-rolled Coil - **View**: Apparent demand has increased, production has remained flat with a slight increase, and inventory has decreased slightly but is still higher than in previous years [1][4]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Although the current molten iron production is still high and the overall steel supply is at a high level, it may be relatively strong in stages in the short term due to policy support [1][5]. Iron Ore - **View**: Molten iron production has decreased again, and steel mills and ports have accumulated inventory. However, the shipment of foreign ores has increased at a high level, while the arrival has significantly decreased. Steel enterprise profits have been rapidly compressed, and the static fundamentals are neutral. The post-festival inventory pressure at the downstream finished product end is gradually emerging, and concerns about industrial negative feedback have increased [1][8]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Participate in the short term [1][9]. Coke - **View**: The second round of price increases is expected to be implemented this week, and the market still anticipates a third round of price increases, with obvious game between coke producers and steel mills. Recently, coke enterprise profits have decreased, but spot production remains relatively stable. Molten iron production remains at a high level, and raw material demand is good. Coke supply and demand are relatively balanced and follow the coking coal price range [1][12]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Prudently bullish [1][13]. Coking Coal - **View**: Coal mine production has decreased month-on-month, and the supply side has been significantly affected by safety inspections and overproduction verifications recently. The absolute level of molten iron production is high, and raw material demand is guaranteed. Currently, supply and demand are relatively balanced, with few contradictions. Supply-side disturbances in the production areas support the market performance, and prices may be relatively strong in the short term [1][16]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Prudently bullish [1][17]. Ferromanganese - **View**: The production area supply level remains at a high level compared to the same period. After the release of the new round of replenishment demand in downstream steel tenders, the difficulty of inventory reduction in the production area has further increased [1][20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: In the short term, the cost side temporarily provides some support for prices, but the upward driving force is still relatively limited. Be cautious when chasing prices [1][21]. Ferrosilicon - **View**: Both supply and demand have weakened, enterprise inventory has decreased, and the warehouse receipt has maintained a downward trend. Pay attention to the situation of re-storage after cancellation [1][20]. - **Operation Suggestion**: It is expected to follow the coal price range in the short term. Be cautious when chasing prices [1][21].

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report provides a mid - term outlook for each variety, including "oscillating", "oscillating weakly", etc., but does not give a unified industry investment rating [5][6] Core View of the Report - The black market has seen continuous days of increased - position decline, with the spot market cautious and prices dropping. Although domestic demand is seasonally weak and export pessimism has intensified, if exports do not deteriorate significantly, the current industry supply - demand situation does not support a trend - based decline. The market trading logic has shifted to the domestic industry fundamentals, and prices are expected to oscillate within a range [1][2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Overall Situation of the Black Industry - **Supply and Demand**: Domestic demand is seasonally weak, and the "rush for exports" is less than expected. Some blast furnaces are under maintenance, and hot metal production has declined from its peak. However, steel inventory pressure is not large this year compared to last year, and steel mill profits are acceptable. Overseas mine new - capacity increments are not obvious, and port inventories are continuously decreasing [1][2] - **Market Outlook**: If exports do not deteriorate significantly, the current industry supply - demand situation does not support a trend - based decline [1][2][5] Iron Element (Iron Ore) - **Supply**: Short - term supply increments are not obvious due to the slower - than - expected progress of overseas new projects, and the expected supply increment for the year will be adjusted downwards [2][6] - **Demand**: Steel enterprises have relatively little short - term passive production - reduction pressure [2][6] - **Inventory**: Port inventories are decreasing, and the total inventory has declined [2][6] - **Market Outlook**: Short - term supply and demand are balanced, but due to the marginal weakening of steel exports and the decline of hot metal production, the market is trading the industry's "negative feedback", and iron ore prices are under downward pressure. In the short term, prices are expected to oscillate [2][6] Carbon Element (Coking Coal and Coke) Coking Coal - **Supply**: Some coal mines have reduced production due to accidents and maintenance, but most main - producing area coal mines maintain normal production, and coking coal production remains high and stable. Mongolian coal port inventories are continuously accumulating, and traders face large shipment pressures, so overall supply is sufficient [3][8] - **Demand**: Coke production is at a high level in the same period, but coke enterprises face increasing inventory - reduction pressure, low coking profits, and limited space for coke production increase [3][8] - **Inventory**: As the coke price reduction cycle begins, coke enterprises' enthusiasm for raw material replenishment decreases, and the upstream inventory pressure of coking coal gradually increases [3][8] - **Market Outlook**: Supply pressure is difficult to resolve, and there is room for further decline in valuation. The futures price is expected to continue its weak trend [3][8] Coke - **Supply**: Coke enterprise profits have slightly shrunk, but upstream inventory pressure is acceptable, and the overall coke production level remains stable [6][7] - **Demand**: Hot metal production has declined from its peak, and terminal steel demand is gradually entering the off - season, so hot metal production may further decline in the future [6][7] - **Market Outlook**: With stable upstream supply and weakening demand support, and cost - end drag, coke prices are prone to fall and difficult to rise. In the short term, the futures market is expected to remain weak [6][7] Alloys (Silicon Manganese and Silicon Iron) Silicon Manganese - **Supply**: There has been an increase in the resumption of production in Inner Mongolia recently, and production is expected to increase. As manganese ore shipments resume, port inventories of manganese ore are slowly rising [3][10][11] - **Demand**: Market sentiment remains cautious, and the supply - demand relationship tends to be loose [10][11] - **Market Outlook**: After the price decline, it is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term [10][11] Silicon Iron - **Supply**: A large silicon - iron factory in Inner Mongolia has shut down some furnaces, and daily silicon - iron production has decreased [12] - **Demand**: Steel mill tenders in May have basically completed procurement, and terminal steel is about to enter the off - season. The market demand expectation remains cautious, and the demand in the magnesium metal market is weak [12] - **Market Outlook**: Supply and demand contradictions have eased, but there is still an expectation of cost loosening. The futures market is expected to oscillate under pressure in the short term [12] Glass - **Demand**: Demand decline in the off - season is not obvious, and deep - processing demand has improved month - on - month but is still weak year - on - year. Spot production and sales have weakened [8] - **Supply**: Daily melting volume remains stable. Low prices suppress the willingness to resume production, and the willingness for cold repair is not obvious. Market rumors about environmental protection issues of Hubei production lines have led to a small rebound in the futures market [8] - **Inventory**: Upstream inventories have slightly decreased, and mid - stream inventories have declined [8] - **Market Outlook**: Real - world demand faces certain pressure in the off - season, and the futures price is at a discount to the spot price. The short - term view is to maintain oscillation [8] Soda Ash - **Supply**: The over - supply pattern has not changed. Although there are many maintenance operations in May, some enterprises have resumed production, and supply pressure still exists [5][9] - **Demand**: Heavy soda ash is expected to maintain rigid procurement. The overall daily melting volume of float glass fluctuates little, and there are still production lines being ignited in the photovoltaic industry, but the growth of photovoltaic glass daily melting volume may not be sustainable [9] - **Market Outlook**: It is expected to oscillate in the short term, and the price center will still decline in the long term [5][9] Steel - **Demand**: The apparent demand for the five major steel products has decreased by 4.8% year - on - year, and the decline has further widened. Domestic demand is still weak, but the overall steel contradictions are limited. Attention should be paid to the export demand situation [6] - **Supply**: Hot metal production is at a high level, and overall steel production has increased [6] - **Market Outlook**: The fundamentals have weakened month - on - month this week, and domestic off - season demand is still under pressure. However, overseas demand may be able to absorb the current high production after the export is no longer restricted by tariffs. The key lies in when exports will weaken. Steel prices are expected to oscillate in the short term [6] Scrap Steel - **Supply**: The five - day average arrival volume has rebounded compared to last week and is at a relatively high level in the same period [6] - **Demand**: The daily consumption of electric furnaces has slightly increased, mainly in East and Southwest China. The hot metal production of blast furnaces has slightly decreased, and the cost - performance of scrap steel has decreased, so the daily consumption of scrap steel in long - process production has decreased, and the total daily consumption of scrap steel in both long - and short - process production has slightly increased [6] - **Inventory**: After the arrival volume rebounded, the factory inventory has slightly increased and is higher than the same period [6] - **Market Outlook**: The market is pessimistic about off - season demand, finished - product prices are under pressure, and the loss of electric furnaces during off - peak hours has intensified. The future price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]