1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of the black sector continued to diverge. The weekly increase of the rebar main contract was 0.1%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.4%, iron ore increased 1.7%, coke fell 3.3%, and coking coal dropped 7.5%. The supply - demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed that production and demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and the inventory depletion speed improved compared with the previous period. The molten iron data remained stable, and steel mills had little willingness to actively reduce or limit production. Molten iron production in November may run stably. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, with limited basis repair drive. Due to the lack of macro themes and the loosening of the coking coal supply end, the futures price weakened first [2]. - The steel market continued its dull trend. The downstream demand data of real estate, infrastructure, home appliances, etc. further weakened, and the overall black market was still suppressed by weak demand. In the short term, the contradictions in steel inventory, cost, and basis were relatively limited, making it difficult to provide a strong upward or downward driving force. The upward driving force of raw material restocking and the downward driving force of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of the next - stage market game. During the process of waiting for the accumulation of contradictions, the market may maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Monthly Data | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] 3.2 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2079600 | 79600 | - 3% | 2307900 | 144200 | - 6% | 5533400 | - 228300 | 24.32% | | Wire Rod | 789300 | 3600 | - 7% | 890000 | 15300 | - 8% | 1127000 | - 95800 | 18% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3160100 | 23500 | 1% | 3244200 | 108300 | 1% | 4021100 | - 84100 | 28% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 845300 | 5700 | 1.79% | 856200 | - 7700 | 1.06% | 1709800 | - 10900 | 15.64% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 1624800 | 42900 | 4.45% | 1648200 | 75500 | 4.33% | 1939700 | - 23400 | 4.51% | | Total | 8499100 | 155300 | - 0.06% | 8940000 | 34000 | - 1.22% | 14330000 | - 442500 | 20.48% | [5] 3.3 Steel Production Profit - On November 20, 2025, the profit changes of different steel products in different regions were as follows: for rebar - blast furnace, the changes in East China, North China, and Central China were - 3, 63, and 175 respectively; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the changes were - 7, 4, and 66; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the changes were - 52, - 73, and - 67; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the changes were 4, - 34, and 85 [20]. 3.4 Steel Demand 3.4.1 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities compared with the same period last year was 7% [27]. - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities was 14% [27]. 3.4.2 Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement of cement out - bound volume, with a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30]. - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30]. 3.4.3 Steel Exports - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year [36]. - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference fell again [36]. 3.5 Steel Inventory 3.5.1 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets [50]. - After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence stage, the futures market usually fluctuates upward. Currently, rebar production is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that the inventory will enter a normal depletion stage. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50]. 3.5.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable and weak. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory in East China remained stable. The poor inventory depletion of hot - rolled coil recently put some pressure on the spot market, causing the basis to weaken [54]. 3.5.3 Rebar Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar rebounded from a low level this week [60]. - The recent decrease in rebar inventory and the decline in the year - on - year inventory growth rate are conducive to the positive spread of the month - spread [60]. 3.5.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of hot - rolled coil changed little and was slightly at a discount. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the month - spread [62].

Report Title and Information - The report is titled "Zhonghui Futures Steel Weekly Report: Short - term Range - bound, Awaiting Market Drivers", issued on November 14, 2025, by Zhonghui Futures Co., Ltd [1] Market Overview - This week, the black - sector showed slight differentiation. The main contract of rebar rose 0.6%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.3%, iron ore rose 1.6%, coke fell 5%, and coking coal fell 6.1%. The previously strong coal and coke weakened [2] - In terms of supply and demand, the production and demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil both declined month - on - month, showing off - season characteristics. The inventory of hot - rolled coil and rebar in East China continued to rise against the season, creating real - world pressure [2] - Macroeconomic data remained poor, with the growth rates of real estate and infrastructure investment remaining weak. The previously supportive supply side of coking coal loosened, and the policy emphasis on supply security changed market expectations [2] Strategy Suggestions - The recent steel market has been dull, with low prices reflecting weak fundamentals. Further market development requires new logical support [2] - The macro and anti - involution factors have temporarily ended. The upward drive of raw material replenishment and the downward drive of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of market games in the next stage [2] - The rebar 01 contract found support around 3000. There may be a short - term technical rebound, but the upside is expected to be limited due to fundamental constraints [2] Steel Monthly Data (as of September 30, 2025) - Pig iron production was 6605000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.4%; the cumulative production was 64586000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.1% [4] - Crude steel production was 7349000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.6%; the cumulative production was 74625000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.9% [4] - Steel production was 12421000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.1%; the cumulative production was 110385000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4% [4] - Steel imports were 50000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1%; the cumulative imports were 504000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.9% [4] - Steel exports were 978000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.6%; the cumulative exports were 9774000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.6% [4] Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data (as of November 14, 2025) | Product | Weekly Production (tons) | Production Change | Cumulative Production YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Cumulative Consumption YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 200000 | - 8540 | - 3% | 216370 | - 2150 | - 6% | 576170 | - 16370 | 29.33% | | Wire Rod | 78570 | - 7900 | - 7% | 87000 | - 1870 | - 8% | 122280 | - 8410 | 21% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 313660 | - 4500 | 1% | 313590 | - 710 | 1% | 410520 | 70 | 27% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 83960 | 120 | 1.84% | 86390 | 1070 | 1.13% | 172070 | - 2430 | 15.71% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 158190 | - 1540 | 4.33% | 157270 | - 2670 | 4.21% | 196310 | 920 | 5.27% | | Total | 834380 | - 22360 | 0% | 861000 | - 6000 | - 1.25% | 1477000 | - 26220 | 22.72% | [5] Steel Production Profit (as of November 13, 2025) | Region | Rebar - Blast Furnace Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Valley Electricity Change | Rebar - Electric Furnace - Flat Electricity Change | Hot - Rolled Coil - Blast Furnace Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | East China | 29 | 17 | - 86 | 3 | | North China | 39 | 5 | - 50 | - 56 | | Central China | 175 | 10 | - 123 | 75 | [20] Steel Demand Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 6.5% [27] - The cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 13.6% [27] Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement in cement out - bound volume, with a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30] - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with the absolute level comparable to the same period last year and a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30] Steel Exports - In October, steel exports decreased month - on - month and were lower than the same period last year [36] - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference declined again [36] Steel Inventory and Basis Rebar - Rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets. After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence period, the futures market usually oscillates upward. With current rebar production lower than last year, inventory is expected to enter a normal destocking phase, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50] - The 1 - 5 month spread of rebar was weak at a low level this week, with limited fluctuations [60] Hot - Rolled Coil - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable. This week, the inventory of hot - rolled coil continued to rise slightly, reaching the highest level for the same period. Cold - rolled coil inventory was also at a relatively high level. According to seasonal patterns, there is a risk of further inventory increase, which will continue to suppress the basis [54] - The 1 - 5 month spread of hot - rolled coil changed little, showing a slight discount. The fundamentals of hot - rolled coil tend to be looser, suppressing the inter - month spread and preventing it from strengthening [65]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [7] - Short - term outlook for each variety: - Steel: Oscillating [9] - Iron ore: Oscillating [10] - Scrap steel: Oscillating [11] - Coke: Oscillating [13] - Coking coal: Oscillating with a slight upward trend [14] - Glass: Oscillating [15] - Soda ash: Oscillating [18] - Manganese silicon: Oscillating [19] - Ferrosilicon: Oscillating [20] 2. Core Views of the Report - The release of the "Steel Industry Steady Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" has a minor impact on the futures prices of the sector, but the prices of sector varieties still have support due to the marginal improvement in the industrial chain during the peak season and the market's expectations for the fourth - quarter important meetings [2] - Overall, in the short term, the "anti - involution" factor causes market fluctuations, but based on the improvement of the industrial chain fundamentals, the callback space is limited. With the positive expectations of domestic important meetings in the fourth quarter and overseas interest rate cuts, prices are expected to rise steadily [7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Iron ore: Shipments have declined but remain at a high level. The arrival volume has been affected by typhoons. Demand remains high, and the pre - National Day restocking expectation still exists. The fundamentals are healthy, and prices are supported [3] - Scrap steel: The fundamentals have marginally weakened, and prices mainly follow the fluctuations of finished products [3] 3.2 Carbon Element - Coke: The work plan has a certain negative impact on the furnace charge end, but before the National Day, the demand is well - supported, and with the cost support from the stable and rising coal prices, the price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [3] - Coking coal: The "anti - involution" policy remains the main line. The fundamentals are healthy, and with the pre - National Day restocking by the mid - and downstream, the price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [3] 3.3 Alloys - Manganese silicon: The short - term peak - season expectation supports the price to some extent, but the future supply - demand outlook is pessimistic, and the price may decline after the peak season [3] - Ferrosilicon: The peak - season expectation supports the price, but the future supply - demand relationship will tend to be loose, and the price may face downward pressure after the peak season [3] 3.4 Glass - The current demand is weak, but there are peak - season and policy expectations. After the mid - stream destocking, there may be another round of oscillations. In the long term, market - oriented capacity reduction is needed, and if prices return to fundamental trading, they are expected to decline oscillatingly [4] 3.5 Soda Ash - The supply - surplus pattern remains unchanged. After the decline in the futures price, the spot - futures trading volume has slightly increased, and the price is expected to oscillate widely in the future. In the long term, the price center will decline to promote capacity reduction [7] 3.6 Specific Analysis of Each Variety - Steel: Spot market transactions are generally weak. The peak - season demand recovery is less than expected, and inventories are at a moderately high level. The short - term futures price is expected to oscillate widely [9] - Iron ore: Overseas shipments have slightly declined, and the arrival volume has increased. Demand is supported in the short term, and inventories are at a moderate level. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term [9] - Scrap steel: Supply has increased slightly, demand has decreased, and inventories have increased slightly. The fundamentals have marginally weakened, and prices follow finished products [11] - Coke: Supply remains stable at a high level, and demand is strongly supported. The price is expected to remain oscillating in the short term [13] - Coking coal: Supply recovery is slow, and demand is strong. The price is expected to oscillate with a slight upward trend in the short term [14] - Glass: Demand is in the off - season, and supply has uncertainties. The price is expected to oscillate in the short term and decline in the long term [15] - Soda ash: Supply capacity has not been cleared, and demand is stable with a slight increase. The price is expected to oscillate [18] - Manganese silicon: Market supply pressure is increasing, and the future price may decline [19] - Ferrosilicon: Supply is increasing, and demand growth is limited. The price may face downward pressure after the peak season [20]