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1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillating" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - This week, the production of rebar, hot-rolled coils, and five major steel products decreased, inventories increased, and demand continued to decline, which was in line with expectations. The spot steel prices were stable on February 12th, with sluggish trading, and the spot market was basically closed, waiting for post - holiday demand recovery. As the Spring Festival approaches, trading volume has shrunk, but positions are at a high level, and there are significant differences between long and short sides regarding the post - holiday market. It is recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the holiday [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Market Conditions - On Thursday, rebar and hot - rolled coils closed down and rose during the night session [1] Important Information - In 2025, China's newly installed capacity of wind and solar power exceeded 430 million kilowatts, setting a new historical high [1] - Among 51 short - process and billet - adjusted section steel production enterprises nationwide, 4% continued normal production during the Spring Festival. The main resumption times after the festival are concentrated around February 24 - 26 (the 8th - 10th day of the first lunar month) and after March 3 (the 15th day of the first lunar month) [1] - This week, the supply of five major steel products was 7.9406 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 258,400 tons or 3.2%; the total inventory was 14.4273 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 1.0498 million tons or 7.8%; the weekly apparent consumption was 6.8908 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.4% [1] Market Logic - This week, the production of rebar, hot - rolled coils, and five major steel products decreased, inventories increased, and demand continued to decline, which was in line with expectations. On February 12th, the spot steel prices were stable, trading was sluggish, and the spot market was basically closed, waiting for post - holiday demand recovery [1] Trading Strategy - As the Spring Festival approaches, trading volume has shrunk. On February 12th, the trading volume of the rebar main contract was less than 500,000 lots, about 50% lower than the average daily volume of 900,000 - 1 million lots in January. However, positions are at a high level, with the position of the rebar main contract remaining above 2 million lots, and funds have not left the market on a large scale. There are significant differences between long and short sides regarding the post - holiday market. Be vigilant against possible concentrated liquidation on the last trading day, which may lead to unexpected market conditions. It is recommended to hold light positions or no positions during the holiday [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the steel industry is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher, and continued to rise in the night session. The supply and inventory of the five major steel products increased this week, while demand decreased. With the approaching of the Spring Festival, downstream steel demand has gradually shrunk, and the market speculation sentiment is poor. The winter storage policy has been gradually implemented, but merchants generally lack confidence in winter storage. The market expects the steel price to be stable after the festival [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Content Market Review - On Thursday, rebar and hot-rolled coils closed higher and continued to rise in the night session [1] Important Information - This week, the supply of the five major steel products was 8.2317 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 35,800 tons or 0.4%; the total inventory was 12.7851 million tons, a week-on-week increase of 214,300 tons or 1.7%; the weekly apparent consumption was 8.0174 million tons, a month-on-month decrease of 1.0% [1] - In 2025, China's stainless steel crude steel output was 40.8681 million tons, an increase of 1.427 million tons or 3.62% year-on-year [1] - According to the latest production schedule report of the three major white goods released by Industrial Online, the total production schedule of air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines in February 2026 was 23.79 million units, a decrease of 22.1% compared with the actual production performance of the same period last year [1] - Mysteel surveyed the Spring Festival shutdown situation of 95 independent electric arc furnace steel mills. Most of them will shut down in February, with the most (44, accounting for 47.83%) shutting down from February 1st to February 8th. The remaining 9 steel mills will shut down one after another after February 8th, and the latest one will shut down on February 15th [1] Market Logic - On Thursday, steel spot prices rose, and commodities generally increased. This week, the output and inventory of the five major steel products increased, while demand decreased. Rebar output and inventory both increased, and rebar continued to accumulate inventory. Hot-rolled coil output increased while inventory decreased. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream steel demand has gradually shrunk, and the market speculation sentiment is poor. The winter storage policy has been gradually implemented, but merchants generally lack confidence in winter storage. Most downstream infrastructure and housing construction enterprises lack the willingness to replenish inventory before the festival. Nearly 70% of enterprises will stop work 5 - 10 days before the festival, and nearly 60% of enterprises plan to resume work 10 - 15 days after the festival. There will be few new projects after the festival, and the market will still be dominated by ongoing projects. Downstream enterprises are relatively rational about the market performance after the festival. 66.67% of enterprises expect the steel price to remain stable after the festival, 21.57% are bearish, and only 11.76% think the price will rise compared with before the festival [1] Trading Strategy - Short-term oscillation. The support level for the rebar main contract is 3,050, and the resistance level is 3,200 [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Report's Core View - The demand for steel is supported, and the volatility of steel prices is relatively low [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamentals - **Price and Basis**: The report presents various price and basis seasonality charts for Shanghai 20mm rebar and 4.75mm hot-rolled coil, including spot prices, 01 contract basis, 01 - 05 contract spreads, and the spread between hot-rolled coil and rebar in the main contract [8][9][14]. - **Production**: It shows statistics on monthly pig iron and crude steel production from the National Bureau of Statistics, 247 steel mills' daily average hot metal output, and 89 independent electric arc furnace capacity utilization [28][30]. - **Imports and Exports**: Charts display the import quantities of steel and billets, as well as the monthly export values of steel and billets. Additionally, it presents the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot-rolled coils [36][62][64]. - **Demand and Inventory**: There are charts on the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major steel products, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and the billet inventory in the Tangshan area. It also shows the global (excluding China) blast furnace pig iron production [42][44][57][59]. - **Scrap Addition Ratio**: The scrap addition ratio and the proportion of five major steel products to hot metal are presented [40]. 3.2 December Market Outlook - **Profitability**: Charts show the cash profits of East China electric arc furnaces (flat electricity) and North China long-process rebar, as well as the weekly production of rebar and hot-rolled coil [68][69]. - **Macroeconomic Indicators**: It includes charts on new social financing scale, new RMB loans, cumulative year-on-year growth of fixed asset investment, land transaction area in 100 large and medium-sized cities, month-on-month growth of commercial housing sales area, new housing construction area, housing completion area, and real estate development funds [73][81][83][92]. - **Infrastructure Investment**: Charts display the issuance amount of local government special bonds, the loan demand index for infrastructure, cumulative year-on-year growth of infrastructure fixed asset investment, and the month-on-month growth of cement direct supply for infrastructure and cement delivery for housing construction and civil use [103][108][110]. - **Manufacturing Indicators**: It presents the performance of various sub - items of the PMI, manufacturing PMI, cumulative year-on-year growth of industrial enterprise profits and its manufacturing sub - items, month-on-month growth of industrial added value and its sub - items, industrial enterprise finished product inventory and its year-on-year growth, and finished product turnover days [116][118][119]. - **Downstream Industry Output**: Charts show China's monthly automobile production, year-on-year growth of civil steel ship production, monthly output of excavators, monthly output of metal containers, year-on-year growth of refrigerator production, and year-on-year growth of air conditioner production [133][135][137].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the performance of the black sector continued to diverge. The weekly increase of the rebar main contract was 0.1%, hot - rolled coil rose 0.4%, iron ore increased 1.7%, coke fell 3.3%, and coking coal dropped 7.5%. The supply - demand of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed that production and demand increased month - on - month, inventory decreased, and the inventory depletion speed improved compared with the previous period. The molten iron data remained stable, and steel mills had little willingness to actively reduce or limit production. Molten iron production in November may run stably. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil was at a neutral level compared with the same period, with limited basis repair drive. Due to the lack of macro themes and the loosening of the coking coal supply end, the futures price weakened first [2]. - The steel market continued its dull trend. The downstream demand data of real estate, infrastructure, home appliances, etc. further weakened, and the overall black market was still suppressed by weak demand. In the short term, the contradictions in steel inventory, cost, and basis were relatively limited, making it difficult to provide a strong upward or downward driving force. The upward driving force of raw material restocking and the downward driving force of industrial negative feedback may become the focus of the next - stage market game. During the process of waiting for the accumulation of contradictions, the market may maintain a narrow - range fluctuation [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Steel Monthly Data | Product | Monthly Output (10,000 tons) | Monthly YoY (%) | Cumulative Output (10,000 tons) | Cumulative YoY (%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Pig Iron | 6555 | - 7.9 | 71137 | - 1.8 | | Crude Steel | 7200 | - 12.1 | 81787 | - 3.9 | | Steel | 11864 | - 0.9 | 121759 | 4.7 | | Steel Imports | 50 | - 6.2 | 504 | - 11.9 | | Steel Exports | 978 | - 12.3 | 9774 | 6.6 | [4] 3.2 Five - Major Steel Products Weekly Data | Product | Weekly Output (tons) | Output Change | Output Cumulative YoY | Weekly Consumption (tons) | Consumption Change | Consumption Cumulative YoY | Inventory (tons) | Inventory Change | Inventory YoY | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rebar | 2079600 | 79600 | - 3% | 2307900 | 144200 | - 6% | 5533400 | - 228300 | 24.32% | | Wire Rod | 789300 | 3600 | - 7% | 890000 | 15300 | - 8% | 1127000 | - 95800 | 18% | | Hot - Rolled Coil | 3160100 | 23500 | 1% | 3244200 | 108300 | 1% | 4021100 | - 84100 | 28% | | Cold - Rolled Coil | 845300 | 5700 | 1.79% | 856200 | - 7700 | 1.06% | 1709800 | - 10900 | 15.64% | | Medium and Heavy Plate | 1624800 | 42900 | 4.45% | 1648200 | 75500 | 4.33% | 1939700 | - 23400 | 4.51% | | Total | 8499100 | 155300 | - 0.06% | 8940000 | 34000 | - 1.22% | 14330000 | - 442500 | 20.48% | [5] 3.3 Steel Production Profit - On November 20, 2025, the profit changes of different steel products in different regions were as follows: for rebar - blast furnace, the changes in East China, North China, and Central China were - 3, 63, and 175 respectively; for rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity, the changes were - 7, 4, and 66; for rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity, the changes were - 52, - 73, and - 67; for hot - rolled coil - blast furnace, the changes were 4, - 34, and 85 [20]. 3.4 Steel Demand 3.4.1 Real Estate High - Frequency Data - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large - and medium - sized cities compared with the same period last year was 7% [27]. - The cumulative year - on - year decrease of the land transaction area in 100 cities was 14% [27]. 3.4.2 Cement and Concrete Demand - The marginal improvement of cement out - bound volume, with a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 25% [30]. - The concrete delivery volume increased month - on - month, with an absolute level similar to the same period last year and a current cumulative year - on - year decrease of 9% [30]. 3.4.3 Steel Exports - In October, the steel export volume decreased month - on - month and was lower than the same period last year [36]. - After October, the domestic - foreign price difference fell again [36]. 3.5 Steel Inventory 3.5.1 Rebar Basis - The rebar basis remained stable this week, with limited fluctuations in both the futures and spot markets [50]. - After November, the basis usually weakens. During the basis convergence stage, the futures market usually fluctuates upward. Currently, rebar production is lower than the same period last year, and it is expected that the inventory will enter a normal depletion stage. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent, and the short - term basis is expected to remain stable [50]. 3.5.2 Hot - Rolled Coil Basis - The basis of the hot - rolled coil 01 contract remained stable and weak. This week, the hot - rolled coil inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory in East China remained stable. The poor inventory depletion of hot - rolled coil recently put some pressure on the spot market, causing the basis to weaken [54]. 3.5.3 Rebar Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of rebar rebounded from a low level this week [60]. - The recent decrease in rebar inventory and the decline in the year - on - year inventory growth rate are conducive to the positive spread of the month - spread [60]. 3.5.4 Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread - The 1 - 5 month - spread of hot - rolled coil changed little and was slightly at a discount. The overall high inventory of hot - rolled coil suppressed the month - spread [62].

Group 1: Market Data - On September 29, the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures contracts RB2601 and HC2601 continued to decline, approaching their lows since July 9 and July 18 respectively. The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3097 yuan/ton and 3289 yuan/ton, with declines of 1.34% and 1.23% respectively. The trading volumes were 1,145,688 lots and 517,716 lots, and the open interests decreased by 49,906 lots and 6,738 lots respectively. The net capital outflows were 132 million yuan and 39 million yuan respectively [5]. - The closing price of stainless steel futures contract SS2511 was 12,760 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.70%. The trading volume was 163,271 lots, and the open interest decreased by 11,471 lots, with a net capital outflow of 108 million yuan [5]. - In the black futures market, the long - short position differences and deviations of various contracts on September 29 were as follows: RB2601 had a long - short difference of 41,212 lots and a deviation of 3.44%; HC2601 had a difference of 17,299 lots and a deviation of 1.75%; SS2511 had a difference of - 69 lots and a deviation of - 0.11%; J2601 had a difference of 948 lots and a deviation of 3.32%; JM2601 had a difference of 13,307 lots and a deviation of 3.57%; I2601 had a difference of 11,264 lots and a deviation of 3.74% [6]. Group 2: Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On September 29, the prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market declined. The rebar prices in Nanning and Zhengzhou dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and those in Jinan, Chongqing, Chengdu, Kunming, and Xi'an decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Wuxi, Jinan, Nanning, Chongqing, Nanjing, Fuzhou, Chengdu, and Guiyang fell by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline. The daily MACD red column of the rebar 2601 contract has been narrowing for 5 consecutive trading days and is close to a death cross, while the daily MACD of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract showed a significant increase in the green column after a death cross the previous day [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The weekly output of the five major steel products increased after three consecutive weeks of decline. The demand reached a new high since mid - July after three consecutive weeks of recovery from its lowest level since early March. The social inventory of the five major steel products declined from its highest level since late April [9]. - In the raw material market, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the imported sinter powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills reached new highs since early February after three and four consecutive weeks of significant increases respectively, indicating that steel mills actively replenished their stocks before the festival. The shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased after reaching a low since late February, but the growth rate narrowed, and the arrival volume reached a new high since late March. The coke per - ton profit has been in the red for two consecutive weeks, and the coke spot price started to rise again on September 24. The coke inventories of coking plants and ports were not high, and steel mills actively replenished their coke stocks before the festival. The refined coal inventory of mines decreased significantly, and the coking coal spot price generally increased again [9]. - Considering that the domestic incremental policies are less effective than those in the previous year, while the anti - involution policies are still expected, and the steel production cut will be mainly structural, the support from the raw material side is relatively predictable. It is expected that the steel market will rebound for the second time after a period of consolidation from late September to early October. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of finished product profits and the willingness of steel mills and coking plants to replenish raw material stocks [9]. Group 4: Industry News - From 2021 to 2024, China's investment in water conservancy construction exceeded 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, reaching 1.3529 trillion yuan in 2024, a record high. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the total investment in water conservancy construction is expected to reach 5.4 trillion yuan. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, 172 major water conservancy projects have been launched, and the layout, structure, function, and system integration of water conservancy infrastructure have been optimized [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will implement a series of practical measures to stimulate private investment and promote the healthy and high - quality development of the private economy [10]. - In August 2025, the total import and export volume of automobile products was 25.81 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The import amount was 4.17 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.4%. The export amount was 21.64 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2% [11]. - From January to August, the advanced steel industry in Hebei Province led the nine major industrial leading industries, with a double - digit growth rate of 14.1% [11]. - Jiufeng Energy plans to invest up to 3.455 billion yuan in a coal - to - natural - gas project in Xinjiang, holding a 50% stake in the project [11]. - Kailuan Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. provided a 100 million yuan guarantee for its subsidiary's letter of credit business [11].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Steel 9 Monthly Report" [6][15][25] - Report date: August 29, 2025 [6][15][25] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The cost is dragged down by raw materials, and steel prices fluctuate within a range [1] Group 3: Fundamental Situation Price and Basis - Figures show the seasonal charts of Shanghai 20mm rebar spot price, Shanghai 4.75mm hot-rolled coil spot price, rebar 10 contract basis in Shanghai, and hot-rolled coil 10 contract basis in Shanghai [8][11] Contract Spreads - Figures present the 10 - 01 contract spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil, and the spread between the main contracts of hot-rolled coil and rebar [15][19] Profits - Figures display the 10 contract rebar and hot-rolled coil disk profits [22] Production - Figures show the monthly pig iron and crude steel production by the National Bureau of Statistics, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, and the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces [26][31] Imports - Figures present the import quantities of steel and billet [32] Ratios - Figures show the scrap addition ratio and the proportion of five major steel products to hot metal [36] Demand and Inventory - Figures display the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major varieties, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and the billet inventory in Tangshan area [41][43][49][56] Global Production and Exports - Figures show the global (excluding China) blast furnace pig iron production, the monthly export volumes of steel and billet, and the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot-rolled coils [56][58][62] Group 4: Market Outlook for September Profits - Figures show the cash profits of East China electric arc furnaces (flat electricity) and North China rebar long-process [66] Production - Figures present the weekly production of rebar and hot-rolled coil [69] Financial Data - Figures show the new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment [73][79] Real Estate Data - Figures display various real estate data such as the monthly year-on-year growth rates of commercial housing sales area, new housing construction area, housing completion area, and real estate development funds [81][89] Construction and Infrastructure Data - Figures show the national and East China building materials transactions, local government special bond issuance, infrastructure loan demand index, and infrastructure investment data [93][102][99] Industrial Data - Figures present various industrial data such as PMI, industrial enterprise profits, industrial added value, and production and inventory data of industrial products [111][113][115] Manufacturing Product Data - Figures show the production data of automobiles, civilian steel ships, excavators, metal containers, refrigerators, and air conditioners [122][130][132]