Group 1: Market Data - On September 29, the prices of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures contracts RB2601 and HC2601 continued to decline, approaching their lows since July 9 and July 18 respectively. The closing prices of RB2601 and HC2601 were 3097 yuan/ton and 3289 yuan/ton, with declines of 1.34% and 1.23% respectively. The trading volumes were 1,145,688 lots and 517,716 lots, and the open interests decreased by 49,906 lots and 6,738 lots respectively. The net capital outflows were 132 million yuan and 39 million yuan respectively [5]. - The closing price of stainless steel futures contract SS2511 was 12,760 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.70%. The trading volume was 163,271 lots, and the open interest decreased by 11,471 lots, with a net capital outflow of 108 million yuan [5]. - In the black futures market, the long - short position differences and deviations of various contracts on September 29 were as follows: RB2601 had a long - short difference of 41,212 lots and a deviation of 3.44%; HC2601 had a difference of 17,299 lots and a deviation of 1.75%; SS2511 had a difference of - 69 lots and a deviation of - 0.11%; J2601 had a difference of 948 lots and a deviation of 3.32%; JM2601 had a difference of 13,307 lots and a deviation of 3.57%; I2601 had a difference of 11,264 lots and a deviation of 3.74% [6]. Group 2: Spot Market and Technical Analysis - On September 29, the prices of some rebar and hot - rolled coil in the spot market declined. The rebar prices in Nanning and Zhengzhou dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and those in Jinan, Chongqing, Chengdu, Kunming, and Xi'an decreased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. The hot - rolled coil prices in Shanghai, Wuxi, Jinan, Nanning, Chongqing, Nanjing, Fuzhou, Chengdu, and Guiyang fell by 10 - 20 yuan/ton [7]. - The daily KDJ indicators of rebar and hot - rolled coil 2601 contracts continued to decline. The daily MACD red column of the rebar 2601 contract has been narrowing for 5 consecutive trading days and is close to a death cross, while the daily MACD of the hot - rolled coil 2601 contract showed a significant increase in the green column after a death cross the previous day [7]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The weekly output of the five major steel products increased after three consecutive weeks of decline. The demand reached a new high since mid - July after three consecutive weeks of recovery from its lowest level since early March. The social inventory of the five major steel products declined from its highest level since late April [9]. - In the raw material market, the iron ore inventory of 247 steel mills and the imported sinter powder ore inventory of 64 sample steel mills reached new highs since early February after three and four consecutive weeks of significant increases respectively, indicating that steel mills actively replenished their stocks before the festival. The shipping volume of Australian and Brazilian iron ore increased after reaching a low since late February, but the growth rate narrowed, and the arrival volume reached a new high since late March. The coke per - ton profit has been in the red for two consecutive weeks, and the coke spot price started to rise again on September 24. The coke inventories of coking plants and ports were not high, and steel mills actively replenished their coke stocks before the festival. The refined coal inventory of mines decreased significantly, and the coking coal spot price generally increased again [9]. - Considering that the domestic incremental policies are less effective than those in the previous year, while the anti - involution policies are still expected, and the steel production cut will be mainly structural, the support from the raw material side is relatively predictable. It is expected that the steel market will rebound for the second time after a period of consolidation from late September to early October. Attention should be paid to the recovery rhythm of finished product profits and the willingness of steel mills and coking plants to replenish raw material stocks [9]. Group 4: Industry News - From 2021 to 2024, China's investment in water conservancy construction exceeded 1 trillion yuan for three consecutive years, reaching 1.3529 trillion yuan in 2024, a record high. During the 14th Five - Year Plan period, the total investment in water conservancy construction is expected to reach 5.4 trillion yuan. Since the 14th Five - Year Plan, 172 major water conservancy projects have been launched, and the layout, structure, function, and system integration of water conservancy infrastructure have been optimized [10]. - The National Development and Reform Commission will implement a series of practical measures to stimulate private investment and promote the healthy and high - quality development of the private economy [10]. - In August 2025, the total import and export volume of automobile products was 25.81 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 3.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%. The import amount was 4.17 billion US dollars, a month - on - month decrease of 7.4% and a year - on - year decrease of 38.4%. The export amount was 21.64 billion US dollars, a month - on - month increase of 5.6% and a year - on - year increase of 13.2% [11]. - From January to August, the advanced steel industry in Hebei Province led the nine major industrial leading industries, with a double - digit growth rate of 14.1% [11]. - Jiufeng Energy plans to invest up to 3.455 billion yuan in a coal - to - natural - gas project in Xinjiang, holding a 50% stake in the project [11]. - Kailuan Energy Chemical Co., Ltd. provided a 100 million yuan guarantee for its subsidiary's letter of credit business [11].

Group 1: Report Information - Report title: "Steel 9 Monthly Report" [6][15][25] - Report date: August 29, 2025 [6][15][25] Group 2: Core Viewpoint - The cost is dragged down by raw materials, and steel prices fluctuate within a range [1] Group 3: Fundamental Situation Price and Basis - Figures show the seasonal charts of Shanghai 20mm rebar spot price, Shanghai 4.75mm hot-rolled coil spot price, rebar 10 contract basis in Shanghai, and hot-rolled coil 10 contract basis in Shanghai [8][11] Contract Spreads - Figures present the 10 - 01 contract spreads of rebar and hot-rolled coil, and the spread between the main contracts of hot-rolled coil and rebar [15][19] Profits - Figures display the 10 contract rebar and hot-rolled coil disk profits [22] Production - Figures show the monthly pig iron and crude steel production by the National Bureau of Statistics, the daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills, and the capacity utilization rate of 89 independent electric arc furnaces [26][31] Imports - Figures present the import quantities of steel and billet [32] Ratios - Figures show the scrap addition ratio and the proportion of five major steel products to hot metal [36] Demand and Inventory - Figures display the weekly apparent demand and total inventory of five major varieties, rebar, hot-rolled coil, and the billet inventory in Tangshan area [41][43][49][56] Global Production and Exports - Figures show the global (excluding China) blast furnace pig iron production, the monthly export volumes of steel and billet, and the export profits of Indian and Japanese hot-rolled coils [56][58][62] Group 4: Market Outlook for September Profits - Figures show the cash profits of East China electric arc furnaces (flat electricity) and North China rebar long-process [66] Production - Figures present the weekly production of rebar and hot-rolled coil [69] Financial Data - Figures show the new social financing scale, new RMB loans, and the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment [73][79] Real Estate Data - Figures display various real estate data such as the monthly year-on-year growth rates of commercial housing sales area, new housing construction area, housing completion area, and real estate development funds [81][89] Construction and Infrastructure Data - Figures show the national and East China building materials transactions, local government special bond issuance, infrastructure loan demand index, and infrastructure investment data [93][102][99] Industrial Data - Figures present various industrial data such as PMI, industrial enterprise profits, industrial added value, and production and inventory data of industrial products [111][113][115] Manufacturing Product Data - Figures show the production data of automobiles, civilian steel ships, excavators, metal containers, refrigerators, and air conditioners [122][130][132]