Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The negative feedback pattern in the steel market continues, with weak demand and low profits for steel mills. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the volatility may intensify in the weak market [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on the overall trend in the medium and long term due to the gradually surplus supply and demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the decline in iron water production and the pressure on steel mill profits, and the prices may be weak and volatile [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets have different supply and demand situations, with the price movements affected by factors such as raw material prices and demand [7][8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. The demand and supply of both thread steel and hot rolled coil decreased, and the inventory pressure remained. The iron water production continued to decline, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts was high. The downstream demand was weak, and the export remained high. The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the coal and coke price drops put pressure on the market [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market fluctuated. The global shipment was strong, and the domestic port inventory reached a new high. The demand was weak in the off - season, and the iron water was in a seasonal production - cut trend. The macro - expectations were gradually realized, and the overall trend had a downward pressure in the medium and long term [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward. The second round of price cuts was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The price might be weak and volatile [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was weak, and the price might be weak and volatile [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated upward. The manganese ore price increased due to the futures market rebound. The port inventory had a structural problem, and the demand for some ores might change. The iron water production decreased seasonally, and the inventory increased slowly [7]. Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price fluctuated upward. The market expected a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The demand from metal magnesium production increased marginally, and the overall demand was still resilient. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [8].

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound oscillation, with the demand being weak and the supply pressure gradually easing [2] - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, with a generally loose fundamental situation but short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore types [3] - The coke market is likely to show a weak oscillation, with general coking profits and a continuous slight decline in daily production [4] - The coking coal market may experience a weak oscillation, with a slight decrease in production and a general terminal market [5] - The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the expected bottom support, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee [6] - The ferrosilicon market has the bottom support strength facing a test, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in export demand [7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel futures market oscillated today, with an improvement in the apparent demand for thread steel and a slight increase in the demand for hot-rolled coils [2] - The downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to operate at a loss, with a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the future [2] - The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs, with the spot prices remaining relatively firm [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated today, with a decline in global shipments but still stronger than the same period, and a rebound in domestic arrivals to a high for the year [3] - The demand for steel is at a low level, and ironmaking is in a seasonal production cut trend, with a slowdown in the production cut speed [3] - The iron ore fundamentals are generally loose, but some ore types may still experience short-term liquidity disturbances [3] Coke - The coke futures market oscillated today, with general coking profits and a continuous slight decline in daily production [4] - The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly, with the overall market supply being abundant [4] - The coke market is expected to show a weak oscillation, with attention paid to the impact of environmental protection policies [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market showed a weak oscillation today, with a slight decrease in production and a general terminal market [5] - The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly, with the overall market supply being abundant [5] - The coking coal market is expected to experience a weak oscillation, with attention paid to the impact of environmental protection policies [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market oscillated today, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in the expected power cost and chemical coke price [6] - The demand for silicon manganese is at a high level, and the inventory has increased slowly, with the overall market supply being abundant [6] - The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the expected bottom support, with attention paid to the impact of policy changes [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated today, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in the expected power cost and blue coke price [7] - The export demand for ferrosilicon has declined, and the secondary demand has increased marginally, with the overall demand still showing resilience [7] - The ferrosilicon market has the bottom support strength facing a test, with attention paid to the impact of policy changes [7]

Report Summary Key Points - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The steel industry is expected to see a gradual decline in production in the future, with potential for price increases in the latter half with the help of macro funds or policies. The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are likely to experience price fluctuations due to high supply and weak demand. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to remain volatile, with supply-side support weakening and demand-side pressures increasing. The iron ore market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [5][6][7]. Summary by Category Steel - Futures prices have temporarily stabilized, and spot trading volumes have increased. The short-term macro outlook is uncertain, and the focus is on industry contradictions. Steel production is expected to decline gradually, with potential for price increases in the latter half [5]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on unilateral trading. Consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or using options strategies to assist in spot sales [8]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Prices are fluctuating due to a decline in market sentiment and external macro factors. The fundamentals are weak, with high supply, large inventory, and weak downstream demand. Prices are likely to be under pressure [5]. - Investment strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading and wait for more information on supply and demand [11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Steel mills have not responded to the fourth round of coke price increases, and the spot market sentiment has weakened. The supply of coking coal is still disrupted, but the upward price drive has weakened. The demand side is facing negative feedback as steel demand enters the off-season [6]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on short-term unilateral trading and consider low-buying in the long term. Industrial customers can consider selling hedges [6][11]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is currently strong, but mainly due to shipping schedules. Iron ore port inventories are expected to continue to rise as steel production declines. The market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [7]. - Investment strategy: Partially take profits on short positions [7][11].

Core Viewpoint - The black metal market sentiment has improved due to the stabilization and rebound of coking coal prices and positive developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations, leading to a low recovery in rebar futures prices, which briefly surpassed 3000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 3% [1] Group 1: Demand Dynamics - Demand for rebar is weakening, with high-frequency demand indicators continuing to decline. As of June 13, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 2.1998 million tons, a decrease of 90,400 tons week-on-week, marking a continuous decline and the lowest level in recent years, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.14% [2] - The construction steel market remains under pressure, with demand continuing to show a sluggish trend. The market has entered a traditional off-season, with inventory increasing in southern China due to rainfall, and the eastern region also experiencing a rainy season, making it difficult for demand to recover [3] Group 2: Supply Conditions - Rebar supply is also contracting, with the latest weekly production at 2.0757 million tons, a decrease of 108,900 tons week-on-week, and a year-on-year decline of 10.69%. Both long and short process steel mills have seen production declines [4] - The short process steel mills are operating at low levels due to losses, with production at 250,000 tons, while long process steel mills have reduced production to 1.8257 million tons, reflecting a cumulative decline of 200,300 tons over three weeks [4] Group 3: Inventory Trends - In the context of weak supply and demand, rebar inventory continues to decrease, with a total inventory of 5.5808 million tons as of June 13, a week-on-week decrease of 124,100 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year, with a year-on-year decline of 28.53% [5] - However, the rate of inventory decline has narrowed, and in some regions, social inventory has begun to accumulate, indicating a potential turning point in inventory dynamics [5]