晨报 煤焦 煤焦：蒙煤通关恢复 盘面弱势震荡 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 原材料： 冯艳成 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 有色金属：于梦雪 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 逻辑：节后首个交易日，黑色金属板块整体走弱，煤焦跌幅居前，价 格迫近近期震荡区间下沿，夜盘价格短暂冲高后回落。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 从基上面来看，假期期间国内煤矿停产放假范围较大，煤矿产量骤减， 市场成交稀少，询盘报盘冷清，市场活跃度降至冰点。2 月 23 日当周数 据显示，原煤、精煤日产 108.6 万吨、45.9 万吨，分别较节前下降 72.2 万吨、28.4 万吨。目前煤矿已进入复产周期，预计本周产量将显 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current supply - demand contradiction of coal and coke is general. The overall sentiment in the ferrous metal market is weak, and prices are running weakly. In the last week before the Spring Festival, attention should be paid to controlling position risks [3] Group 3: Summary According to the Directory Market Performance - Yesterday, coal and coke futures prices continued to run in a weak and volatile manner, with a reduced amplitude, and the prices were close to the lower edge of the recent volatile range. Due to the seasonal off - season, the market trading sentiment cooled down, and the overall trend of the ferrous metal sector was weak [3] Fundamental Analysis - This week, the scope of domestic coal mine shutdowns for holidays expanded, and market activity further cooled down. Coke and steel enterprises basically completed their inventory replenishment, and traders began to take holidays. The market trading atmosphere was cold, and the auction price continued to decline. Due to the supply contraction caused by coal mine holidays and the low procurement demand of coke and steel enterprises, the market was characterized by weak supply and demand, and the upstream pit - mouth inventory changed little [3] - This week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal was 1.808 million tons and 743,000 tons respectively, a week - on - week decrease of 118,000 tons and 12,000 tons respectively [3] - At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal decreased slightly last week. According to the bilateral agreement between China and Mongolia, the three major ports will be closed during the 2026 Spring Festival, from the first to the fourth day of the first lunar month (February 17 - 20), and will be normally closed on February 15 and February 22 (Sundays) [3] - On the demand side, the blast furnace operation rate of steel mills increased steadily. This week, the average daily pig iron output increased to about 2.305 million tons [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the black commodity market as a whole weakened, with iron ore experiencing the largest decline. Macro - level positive factors are still lacking, and the sharp correction in the precious metals and non - ferrous metals sectors has cooled market sentiment. In terms of supply and demand, from a lunar calendar perspective, rebar production is similar to that of the same period last year, but apparent demand is weaker, and inventory will accumulate more rapidly in the later stage. The raw material end shows the pressure of loose supply. Iron ore inventory continues to rise, and after the logic of steel mill restocking weakens, iron ore faces a supplementary decline. Coking coal faces tightened safety supervision around the Spring Festival and the Two Sessions, and the disturbance of Indonesian coal exports also provides a phased boost, but high Mongolian coal imports suppress the rebound space [2]. - The black commodity market faces the pressure of weaker year - on - year rebar demand, high hot - rolled coil inventory, and loose supply at the raw material end. Since rebar has been oscillating in a range, it will face a directional choice later, and there is a possibility of continuing to decline under the background of weak supply and demand. Before the Spring Festival, it is recommended to maintain the strategies of hedging on rallies and selling call options for covered writing [2]. - Although the current spread between hot - rolled coils and rebar is higher than in previous years, it usually widens after the Spring Festival. Due to differences in downstream demand, it may still follow seasonal patterns [3]. - The basis in East China is around 140, and the inventory in Hangzhou is at a relatively high level, with room for contraction [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Production - **Monthly Data**: In December 2025, the monthly output of pig iron was 60720,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.9%; the cumulative output was 836,040,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The monthly output of crude steel was 68180,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 10.3%; the cumulative output was 960,810,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%. The monthly output of steel was 115,310,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.8%; the cumulative output was 1446,120,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. Steel imports were 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.7%; the cumulative imports were 6060,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 11.1%. Steel exports were 11,300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%; the cumulative exports were 119,020,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 7.5% [7]. - **Weekly Data**: As of February 6, 2026, the weekly output of rebar was 1,916,800 tons, a decrease of 81,500 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year change of 0%. The weekly consumption was 1,476,400 tons, a decrease of 287,600 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 23%. The inventory was 5,195,700 tons, an increase of 440,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 26.34%. The weekly output of wire rod was 730,400 tons, a decrease of 33,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 1%. The weekly consumption was 620,000 tons, a decrease of 128,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 14%. The inventory was 1,057,100 tons, an increase of 112,900 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 32%. The weekly output of hot - rolled coil was 3,091,600 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 5%. The weekly consumption was 3,055,400 tons, a decrease of 58,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1%. The inventory was 3,592,000 tons, an increase of 36,200 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 13%. The weekly output of cold - rolled coil was 888,800 tons, an increase of 4,600 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 1.22%. The weekly consumption was 853,300 tons, a decrease of 69,200 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.69%. The inventory was 1,584,200 tons, an increase of 35,500 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.24%. The weekly output of medium and heavy plate was 1,571,400 tons, an increase of 78,400 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 0.12%. The weekly consumption was 1,604,000 tons, an increase of 133,100 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.84%. The inventory was 1,948,500 tons, a decrease of 32,600 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 15.35%. The total weekly output of the five major steel products was 8,199,000 tons, a decrease of 32,700 tons, a cumulative year - on - year decrease of 2.12%. The total weekly consumption was 7,610,000 tons, a decrease of 410,000 tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 8.15%. The total inventory was 13,380,000 tons, an increase of 592,400 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 19.95% [8]. - **Production Profit**: On February 5, 2026, in East China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 103, with a change of 5; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 15, with a change of - 46; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 121, with a change of - 33; the profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 65, with a change of 5. In North China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 8, with a change of 13; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was 34, with a change of 17; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 40, with a change of 27; the profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was - 77, with a change of 13. In Central China, the profit of rebar - blast furnace was 175, with a change of 0; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - off - peak electricity was - 33, with a change of 0; the profit of rebar - electric furnace - normal electricity was - 167, with a change of 0; the profit of hot - rolled coil - blast furnace was 55, with a change of 0 [23]. Steel Demand - **Building Materials Consumption**: In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the commercial housing transaction area of 30 large - and medium - sized cities was 10%, and the cumulative year - on - year decrease in the land transaction area of 100 cities was 19%. Due to the late Spring Festival this year, from a lunar calendar perspective, the current cement and concrete outbound/shipment volume is still lower than that of the same period last year [30][33]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Consumption**: In December, steel exports reached 11.3 million tons, close to the historical high. The export profit of hot - rolled coils has rebounded slightly recently, but the absolute level is low [39]. Steel Inventory - **Rebar Inventory**: The rebar basis fluctuated this week with little change. Currently, the production profit of rebar is generally better than that of hot - rolled coils, which is also reflected in the month - on - month increase in rebar production. According to past patterns, the basis is expected to narrow. From a lunar calendar perspective, the inventory in Hangzhou has reached the highest level in the same period, and it may decline later [53]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Inventory**: The hot - rolled coil basis fluctuates around - 0 with little change. The hot - rolled coil inventory has started to accumulate, and the overall level is high, which suppresses the basis [57]. - **Rebar Month - Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - spread of rebar continues to fluctuate in the negative range with limited fluctuations. The rebar inventory has started to accumulate rapidly, and the high inventory level in Hangzhou makes it difficult for the month - spread to strengthen [60]. - **Hot - Rolled Coil Month - Spread**: The 5 - 10 month - spread of hot - rolled coils fluctuates around - 20 with little change [62]. - **Spread between Hot - Rolled Coils and Rebar**: Although the current spread is higher than in previous years, it usually widens after the Spring Festival. Due to differences in downstream demand, it may still follow seasonal patterns [3].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Thread Steel**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Hot Rolled Coil**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Iron Ore**: ★★★ [1] - **Coke**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Coking Coal**: ★☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Manganese**: ☆☆☆ [1] - **Silicon Ferrosilicon**: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The negative feedback pattern in the steel market continues, with weak demand and low profits for steel mills. The market sentiment is pessimistic, and the volatility may intensify in the weak market [2]. - The iron ore market has a relatively loose fundamental situation, with a downward pressure on the overall trend in the medium and long term due to the gradually surplus supply and demand [3]. - The coke and coking coal markets are affected by the decline in iron water production and the pressure on steel mill profits, and the prices may be weak and volatile [4][6]. - The silicon manganese and silicon ferrosilicon markets have different supply and demand situations, with the price movements affected by factors such as raw material prices and demand [7][8]. Summaries by Related Catalogs Steel - The steel futures market continued to decline. The demand and supply of both thread steel and hot rolled coil decreased, and the inventory pressure remained. The iron water production continued to decline, and the possibility of further blast furnace production cuts was high. The downstream demand was weak, and the export remained high. The market sentiment was pessimistic, and the coal and coke price drops put pressure on the market [2]. Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market fluctuated. The global shipment was strong, and the domestic port inventory reached a new high. The demand was weak in the off - season, and the iron water was in a seasonal production - cut trend. The macro - expectations were gradually realized, and the overall trend had a downward pressure in the medium and long term [3]. Coke - The coke price fluctuated downward. The second round of price cuts was fully implemented, and the coking profit was average. The inventory decreased slightly, and the downstream demand was weak. The price might be weak and volatile [4]. Coking Coal - The coking coal price fluctuated downward. The production of coking coal mines decreased slightly, and the inventory increased. The downstream demand was weak, and the price might be weak and volatile [6]. Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese price fluctuated upward. The manganese ore price increased due to the futures market rebound. The port inventory had a structural problem, and the demand for some ores might change. The iron water production decreased seasonally, and the inventory increased slowly [7]. Silicon Ferrosilicon - The silicon ferrosilicon price fluctuated upward. The market expected a decrease in power cost and semi - coke price. The demand from metal magnesium production increased marginally, and the overall demand was still resilient. The supply decreased, and the inventory decreased slightly [8].

Industry Investment Ratings - Thread Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled Coil: ★☆☆ [1] - Iron Ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★★★ [1] - Coking Coal: ★★★ [1] - Silicon Manganese: ★★★ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆☆ [1] Core Views - The steel market is mainly in a range-bound oscillation, with the demand being weak and the supply pressure gradually easing [2] - The iron ore market is expected to oscillate, with a generally loose fundamental situation but short-term liquidity disturbances in some ore types [3] - The coke market is likely to show a weak oscillation, with general coking profits and a continuous slight decline in daily production [4] - The coking coal market may experience a weak oscillation, with a slight decrease in production and a general terminal market [5] - The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the expected bottom support, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee [6] - The ferrosilicon market has the bottom support strength facing a test, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in export demand [7] Summary by Category Steel - The steel futures market oscillated today, with an improvement in the apparent demand for thread steel and a slight increase in the demand for hot-rolled coils [2] - The downstream acceptance capacity is insufficient, and steel mills continue to operate at a loss, with a high possibility of further blast furnace production cuts in the future [2] - The overall domestic demand is still weak, and steel exports have declined from their highs, with the spot prices remaining relatively firm [2] Iron Ore - The iron ore futures market oscillated today, with a decline in global shipments but still stronger than the same period, and a rebound in domestic arrivals to a high for the year [3] - The demand for steel is at a low level, and ironmaking is in a seasonal production cut trend, with a slowdown in the production cut speed [3] - The iron ore fundamentals are generally loose, but some ore types may still experience short-term liquidity disturbances [3] Coke - The coke futures market oscillated today, with general coking profits and a continuous slight decline in daily production [4] - The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has increased slightly, with the overall market supply being abundant [4] - The coke market is expected to show a weak oscillation, with attention paid to the impact of environmental protection policies [4] Coking Coal - The coking coal futures market showed a weak oscillation today, with a slight decrease in production and a general terminal market [5] - The downstream demand is weak, and the inventory has decreased slightly, with the overall market supply being abundant [5] - The coking coal market is expected to experience a weak oscillation, with attention paid to the impact of environmental protection policies [5] Silicon Manganese - The silicon manganese futures market oscillated today, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in the expected power cost and chemical coke price [6] - The demand for silicon manganese is at a high level, and the inventory has increased slowly, with the overall market supply being abundant [6] - The silicon manganese market has a downward shift in the expected bottom support, with attention paid to the impact of policy changes [6] Ferrosilicon - The ferrosilicon futures market oscillated today, with an increase in the expected coal mine supply guarantee and a decline in the expected power cost and blue coke price [7] - The export demand for ferrosilicon has declined, and the secondary demand has increased marginally, with the overall demand still showing resilience [7] - The ferrosilicon market has the bottom support strength facing a test, with attention paid to the impact of policy changes [7]

Report Summary Key Points - **Report Industry Investment Rating**: Not provided - **Core View**: The steel industry is expected to see a gradual decline in production in the future, with potential for price increases in the latter half with the help of macro funds or policies. The silicon iron and manganese silicon markets are likely to experience price fluctuations due to high supply and weak demand. The coking coal and coke markets are expected to remain volatile, with supply-side support weakening and demand-side pressures increasing. The iron ore market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [5][6][7]. Summary by Category Steel - Futures prices have temporarily stabilized, and spot trading volumes have increased. The short-term macro outlook is uncertain, and the focus is on industry contradictions. Steel production is expected to decline gradually, with potential for price increases in the latter half [5]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on unilateral trading. Consider participating in cash-and-carry arbitrage for hot-rolled coils or using options strategies to assist in spot sales [8]. Silicon Iron and Manganese Silicon - Prices are fluctuating due to a decline in market sentiment and external macro factors. The fundamentals are weak, with high supply, large inventory, and weak downstream demand. Prices are likely to be under pressure [5]. - Investment strategy: Temporarily hold off on trading and wait for more information on supply and demand [11]. Coking Coal and Coke - Steel mills have not responded to the fourth round of coke price increases, and the spot market sentiment has weakened. The supply of coking coal is still disrupted, but the upward price drive has weakened. The demand side is facing negative feedback as steel demand enters the off-season [6]. - Investment strategy: Hold off on short-term unilateral trading and consider low-buying in the long term. Industrial customers can consider selling hedges [6][11]. Iron Ore - The supply of iron ore is currently strong, but mainly due to shipping schedules. Iron ore port inventories are expected to continue to rise as steel production declines. The market is facing a supply surplus, and prices are likely to decline [7]. - Investment strategy: Partially take profits on short positions [7][11].

Core Viewpoint - The black metal market sentiment has improved due to the stabilization and rebound of coking coal prices and positive developments in China-U.S. trade negotiations, leading to a low recovery in rebar futures prices, which briefly surpassed 3000 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 3% [1] Group 1: Demand Dynamics - Demand for rebar is weakening, with high-frequency demand indicators continuing to decline. As of June 13, the weekly apparent demand for rebar was 2.1998 million tons, a decrease of 90,400 tons week-on-week, marking a continuous decline and the lowest level in recent years, with a year-on-year decrease of 3.14% [2] - The construction steel market remains under pressure, with demand continuing to show a sluggish trend. The market has entered a traditional off-season, with inventory increasing in southern China due to rainfall, and the eastern region also experiencing a rainy season, making it difficult for demand to recover [3] Group 2: Supply Conditions - Rebar supply is also contracting, with the latest weekly production at 2.0757 million tons, a decrease of 108,900 tons week-on-week, and a year-on-year decline of 10.69%. Both long and short process steel mills have seen production declines [4] - The short process steel mills are operating at low levels due to losses, with production at 250,000 tons, while long process steel mills have reduced production to 1.8257 million tons, reflecting a cumulative decline of 200,300 tons over three weeks [4] Group 3: Inventory Trends - In the context of weak supply and demand, rebar inventory continues to decrease, with a total inventory of 5.5808 million tons as of June 13, a week-on-week decrease of 124,100 tons, significantly lower than the same period last year, with a year-on-year decline of 28.53% [5] - However, the rate of inventory decline has narrowed, and in some regions, social inventory has begun to accumulate, indicating a potential turning point in inventory dynamics [5]