Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of adjusting investment strategies in response to market changes, particularly in the context of the upcoming fourth quarter [1] - It highlights the potential impact of new regulations on the bond market, specifically regarding redemption fees for bond funds and money market funds, which could lead to a shift in investment flows [5][7] - The report discusses the current economic environment, noting a significant change in the underlying logic of the stock and bond markets, suggesting a phase of "strong stocks and weak bonds" may continue [4] Market Dynamics - The report indicates that the recent tariff threats from the U.S. may have a limited long-term impact on the markets, as the financial environment has changed since previous similar events [4] - It notes that the bond market sentiment has weakened, and the current environment may allow for a temporary recovery in bond prices, despite the overall bearish sentiment [4][13] - The report suggests that the equity market is showing signs of a bull market, which may lead to short-term adjustments but not a reversal of long-term trends [4][13] Regulatory Changes - The new redemption fee regulations for bond and money market funds are expected to reduce the attractiveness of these investments, potentially leading to a shift towards equity and mixed funds [5][7] - The report outlines the specific changes in redemption fees, indicating that fees for redemptions within six months will increase to at least 50 basis points, which could further diminish returns for bond fund investors [5][7] Economic Indicators - The report provides a summary of key economic indicators for August and July, highlighting a decline in industrial production and fixed asset investment, which may reflect broader economic challenges [15][16] - It discusses the implications of the "anti-involution" policy, suggesting it aims to address issues of excessive competition among local governments and may impact production and investment dynamics [10][16] Investment Strategy - The report advises investors to consider reallocating their portfolios, particularly moving from 30-year bonds to 10-year bonds, as the latter may offer better risk-adjusted returns in the current market environment [50] - It emphasizes the need for investors to be agile and responsive to market conditions, particularly in light of the recent adjustments in the bond market and the evolving economic landscape [47][50]

Group 1: Steel Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - After the Fed's interest rate cut met expectations, the market returned to fundamental trading. Attention should be paid to supply - demand changes and industry profit conditions. The supply - demand pattern of rebar has slightly improved, while that of plates has weakened, and prices may face pressure [1]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, steel futures fluctuated weakly. Spot steel transactions were generally weak, with a significant decline compared to the previous period. Rebar spot prices held firm, and the basis widened. Hot - rolled coil prices generally followed the decline of the futures. The national building materials transaction volume was 87,900 tons. This week, rebar production decreased, inventory decreased, and apparent demand increased. Hot - rolled coil production slightly increased, inventory grew, and apparent demand declined [1]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: Currently, rebar supply has contracted, and demand has recovered from a low level, with a slight improvement in the supply - demand pattern. However, the downstream has not improved, and the peak season remains to be verified. Plate demand has weakened, and the fundamental supply - demand pattern has deteriorated, with prices likely to be under pressure [1]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [2]. Group 2: Iron Ore Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The global shipment of iron ore has significantly increased, pig iron production has continued to rise, and inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a medium level. Considering the pre - holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience [3]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, iron ore futures prices fluctuated. The prices of mainstream imported iron ore varieties at Tangshan ports slightly declined. Traders' enthusiasm for quoting was average, and steel mills mainly purchased on a just - in - time basis. The national main port iron ore cumulative trading volume was 974,000 tons, a 23.00% decline from the previous day. Forward spot cumulative trading volume was 2.08 million tons (12 transactions), a 115.54% increase from the previous day (with a mine trading volume of 410,000 tons) [3]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: The global shipment of iron ore has significantly increased, pig iron production has continued to rise, and inventory has slightly declined, remaining at a medium level. Considering the pre - holiday restocking demand, iron ore consumption has strong resilience. Attention should be paid to the impact of the floating volume on arrivals and the pre - holiday restocking rhythm of steel mills [3]. - **Strategy**: Unilateral trading is expected to be volatile. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [4]. Group 3: Coking Coal and Coke Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Before the National Day, downstream restocking led to a significant increase in coking coal and coke inventory. It is expected that coking coal and coke will fluctuate in the short term [5][6]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: Yesterday, the main contracts of coking coal and coke futures fluctuated. For coke, coke enterprises' production was stable at a high level, and the supply side had no obvious inventory pressure. For coking coal, as the double festivals approached, downstream enterprises began pre - holiday restocking, and coal prices rebounded by 20 - 80 yuan/ton. The price of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal in the spot market dropped to 1,000 yuan/ton. Coking coal and coke inventory increased compared to the previous period, indicating strong downstream restocking willingness. Coking coal production growth slowed down, and coke production slightly increased [5][6]. - **Supply - Demand and Logic**: For coke, price cuts have been implemented, and supply is relatively stable, while downstream rigid demand remains resilient. For coking coal, pre - holiday restocking demand has been released, and coking coal inventory has continued to decline. Coupled with domestic policy expectations, coking coal and coke are expected to fluctuate in the short term [6]. - **Strategy**: Both coking coal and coke are expected to be volatile in unilateral trading. There are no recommendations for inter - period, inter - variety, spot - futures, or options trading [6]. Group 4: Thermal Coal Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Coal demand is improving, and prices are rising. In the short term, prices will fluctuate, and in the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. Summary by Related Directory - **Market Analysis**: In the production areas, the prices of main - producing areas continued to rise. Currently, the stocking demand for chemical and civil use is good, terminal demand has increased, and combined with the increase in the external purchase price of large groups, the transportation demand of surrounding coal yards and stations has been released. Some coal mines have low inventory, and the number of coal - pulling trucks has increased, leading to continuous price increases. In the port market, the sentiment is good, and the transaction price center has moved up. Some traders are more reluctant to sell due to shipping cost support and tight resources, and the prices of some high - quality coal varieties have increased. In the import market, the tender price of imported coal continued to rise, the decline of domestic coal prices narrowed, low - calorie coal prices rebounded, and the price difference between domestic and foreign coal shrank [7]. - **Demand and Logic**: Production area supply is gradually recovering, and the daily consumption of thermal coal has decreased. In the short term, prices will fluctuate. In the long term, the supply - loose pattern remains unchanged. Attention should be paid to non - power coal consumption and restocking [7]. - **Strategy**: Not provided

Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The current macro - economic supply - demand imbalance persists, and the transmission of anti - involution policy effects is asymmetric. - Fundamental trading has two sides, usually more focused on long - term logic, and attention should be paid to the expectation gap. Although the current fundamentals are not the core contradiction of stock - bond trading, their anchoring effect on the bond market cannot be ignored. There is still a certain investment cost - effectiveness for 10 - year treasury bonds with a yield above 1.80% [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs How to View the Current Economic Fundamentals - In recent years, the problem of supply exceeding demand in the domestic economy has been prominent. External demand led by exports in the first half of the year was an important factor driving economic growth. In the second half of the year, the demand side declined overall, and the growth rate of the production side also showed signs of decline. The asymmetry of policy effects may be the main cause of short - term economic fluctuations. - On one hand, anti - involution has a direct impact on the production side, similar to capacity reduction through administrative means during the supply - side reform, which may be the main reason for the decline in the growth rate of fixed - asset investment in July and August, and industrial production may also be affected. On the other hand, against the background of relatively weak demand, the effect of anti - involution on boosting prices still needs further transmission. The short - term PPI growth rate may bottom out, but the CPI growth rate unexpectedly declined in August [2]. How to Understand Fundamental Trading - Fundamental trading has two sides, and the same data may have completely opposite interpretations. For example, after the release of economic data on March 17 and April 16, 2025, although the economic data was better than expected, the TL contract showed different intraday trends, which makes it difficult to grasp the market's mainstream expectations for fundamental data and its impact [3]. - Fundamental trading is more of a long - term rather than a short - term logic, and its role is more to support rather than drive. Economic fundamental variables are mostly slow - changing variables with relatively low update frequencies. Investors usually need to form fundamental expectations based on multi - month data, which determines that fundamental trading is more long - term. The impact of fundamentals on bond prices is more of a support, and the relationship between positive economic data for the bond market and bond market rallies is "necessary but not sufficient" [3]. - The long - term logical nature of fundamental trading determines that the expectation gap may be the main factor affecting fundamental trading. Data that conforms to the long - term market fundamental expectations may cause a relatively flat market reaction, while data that deviates from the long - term expectations may catalyze short - term trading in the market [3]. Understanding Stock - Bond Market Trends from the Perspective of Fundamental Trading - Apparently, fundamentals are not the core contradiction of current stock - bond trading. Factors such as investors' risk appetite, market liquidity, incremental funds, and potential policies have a greater impact on the equity market. The relatively fragile sentiment in the bond market is the main reason for the recent more - decline - less - rise situation in the bond market. The commodity market pays more attention to the introduction and implementation of anti - involution policies [4]. - Deeply, the anchoring effect of fundamentals cannot be ignored, especially for the bond market. Relatively weak fundamental data can frame the approximate upward range of treasury bond yields. 10 - year treasury bonds with a yield above 1.80% still have a certain investment cost - effectiveness. - The impact of current fundamentals on the bond market is asymmetric. Relatively weak fundamental data in line with expectations may not effectively boost bond market sentiment and catalyze a bond market rally, while unexpectedly strong data may hit the already fragile bond market sentiment. Attention should be paid to demand - side data such as consumption and price indices such as CPI [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the soda ash futures declined by 0.08%, and the glass futures dropped by 3.54%. The soda ash futures showed a volatile performance, mainly due to the change in expectations and the market's return to fundamental trading. The glass followed a similar trend to soda ash futures. After the Politburo meeting, the anti - involution sentiment subsided, and policy expectations for the second half of the year changed. The previously hyped upward trend has mostly reversed. Glass is expected to reverse its fundamentals first and may rise after a decline next week to repair emotional trading. Soda ash is expected to have ample supply, falling demand, and continued price pressure, while glass supply and demand are also under pressure, with prices likely to fall overall [6]. - The SA2601 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1280 - 1350, with stop - loss in the range of 1250 - 1380. The FG2601 is advised to operate in the range of 1140 - 1200, with stop - loss in the range of 1100 - 1250 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures fell 0.08% this week with volatile performance due to expectation changes and a return to fundamental trading. Glass futures dropped 3.54%, following a similar trend to soda ash. After the Politburo meeting, sentiment and policy expectations changed, reversing the previous upward trend. Glass may reverse fundamentals first and rise after a decline next week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is ample with rising domestic production and开工率. Profits are falling, which may reduce output. Natural alkali methods will replace outdated capacity. Demand from the glass industry shows signs of recovery but remains at a low level. Inventory is rising, and the de - stocking process will be uneven. Overall, supply will remain ample, demand will decline, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, supply and demand are both under pressure, with supply expected to increase slightly next week. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, and prices are likely to fall overall [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Soda ash futures declined by 0.08% this week, and glass futures dropped by 3.54% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 7, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1340 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 95 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1104 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton [14][18]. - **Basis**: As of August 7, 2025, the soda ash basis was - 97 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was 28 yuan/ton. The soda ash basis continued to weaken, and the glass basis also weakened [14][18]. - **Price Spread**: As of August 7, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 281 yuan/ton. The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week [20][22]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: As of August 7, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 85.16%, a week - on - week increase of 5.13%, and the weekly output was 74.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.4% [28]. - **Profitability**: As of August 7, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the combined soda process was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 150.36 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; using coal - made gas as fuel was 111.05 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.61%; using petroleum coke as fuel was 130.57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% [33]. - **Glass Production**: As of August 7, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass output was 111.17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%, and is expected to remain low next week [37]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 66.76%, unchanged from the previous week, and the daily melting volume was 86,500 tons/day, unchanged from the previous week, and is expected to remain at a low level next week [41]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 186.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.93%. The total glass inventory was 61.847 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95%, and is expected to continue de - stocking [47]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, showing a slight recovery but still at a low level [51].

Group 1 - Since the end of July, glass futures prices have significantly corrected, with market volatility notably decreasing; spot prices remain stable while transaction volumes are stabilizing, although production and sales have sharply declined in some regions [1] - The current level of downstream orders is average, and many small and medium-sized enterprises face financial pressure; despite a rapid increase in spot prices in mid-July, the willingness for terminal stocking remains weak [1] - The recent "anti-involution" policy has a substantial impact on supply expectations; although the specific implementation and effects of the policy are currently uncertain, the low valuation of glass futures prices has led to a rapid rebound to around 1300 yuan/ton due to market sentiment [1] Group 2 - From a supply perspective, the short-term supply of the float glass industry is relatively sufficient; as of July 31, the industry operating rate was 75%, with a capacity utilization rate increasing by 0.3 percentage points to 79.78%, a year-to-date high [2] - The daily melting volume increased by 0.38% to 159,600 tons, also a year-to-date high; however, the national float glass production was 1.1152 million tons, a 0.64% increase month-on-month but a 6.37% decrease year-on-year [2] - The current glass market supply is at a near five-year low compared to the same period last year, while demand has been declining since 2022, with new housing starts showing negative growth [2] Group 3 - The current glass inventory is concentrated in the upstream, with low inventory in the downstream; in mid to late July, the rise in futures prices led to speculative demand from traders, boosting market sentiment and quickly depleting upstream inventory [3] - However, the recovery speed of orders from downstream processing plants is slower than expected, and with insufficient terminal orders and limited funds in the downstream, the flow of goods from upstream to downstream is slow [3] - Overall, while the supply in the glass industry is at a near five-year low, the weak terminal demand suggests a lack of sustained upward momentum in prices; the mid-term futures market is expected to gradually return to fundamental trading [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the futures prices of soda ash and glass dropped significantly due to the fading of the market's anti - involution sentiment after the Political Bureau meeting and the change in policy expectations for the second half of the year. The previous speculative upward trend has mostly reversed. However, the fundamentals are gradually taking effect. Soda ash supply is expected to remain loose, demand will continue to decline, and prices will face pressure. For glass, the probability of a rebound next week is high, and the subsequent market trading will be more about policy expectations [6]. - It is recommended to trade the SA2509 contract in the range of 1180 - 1280, with a stop - loss range of 1150 - 1300. For the FG2509 contract, it is recommended to operate in the range of 1080 - 1200, with a stop - loss range of 1050 - 1250 [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: This week, the soda ash futures dropped 12.78%, and the glass futures dropped 19.09%. The decline was mainly due to emotional trading. The fundamentals are gradually taking over. Glass may achieve a fundamental reversal first and repair the excessive decline next week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, the supply is still loose, the demand will continue to fall, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, the probability of a rebound next week is high, and the subsequent market trading will focus on policy expectations [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade the SA2509 contract in the 1180 - 1280 range with a stop - loss of 1150 - 1300. Operate the FG2509 contract in the 1080 - 1200 range with a stop - loss of 1050 - 1250 [6]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: This week, both soda ash and glass futures prices declined [8]. - **Spot Prices**: The soda ash spot price fell, and the glass spot price rose. The basis of both strengthened, and the soda ash - glass spread also strengthened and is expected to continue next week [13][19][24]. - **Specific Data**: As of July 31, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1245 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 185 yuan/ton; the soda ash basis was - 2 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1184 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 20 yuan/ton; the glass basis was 67 yuan/ton. The glass - soda ash spread was 130 yuan/ton [17][22][26]. 3.3 Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: This week, the domestic soda ash operating rate and production declined. As of July 31, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 80.27%, a week - on - week decrease of 2.75%, and the weekly production was 699,800 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.32% [28][32]. - **Profitability**: This week, the profits of domestic soda ash and glass enterprises increased. The theoretical profit of dual - ton soda ash by the combined soda process was 101 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 83 yuan/ton; the theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was 52 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 87 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 150.36 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 10.69%; the profit using coal - gas as fuel was 138.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 7.14%; the profit using petroleum coke as fuel was 137.71 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 157.78% [34][36][39]. - **Glass Production**: One more glass production line was cold - repaired this week, but the overall production remained stable at a low level. As of July 31, 2025, there were 296 glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), 222 in production, and 74 cold - repaired. The national float glass production was 1.1152 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.64%, and it is expected to remain low next week [41][43]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: This week, the operating rate, capacity utilization, and daily melting volume of domestic photovoltaic glass declined. As of July 31, 2025, the capacity utilization of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 66.76%, a week - on - week decrease of 1.37%, and the daily melting volume was 86,500 tons/day, a week - on - week decrease of 1200 tons/day, with a high probability of further decline next week [45][47]. - **Inventory**: This week, the inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises decreased due to reduced production, and the inventory of glass enterprises also decreased. As of July 31, 2025, the inventory of soda ash enterprises was 1.7956 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 3.69%, and the total glass inventory was 59.499 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3.87% [49][53]. - **Downstream Demand**: The downstream deep - processing orders of domestic glass increased slightly, but the demand remained low. As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days [55][57].

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading. Attention should be paid to whether the bottle chip production reduction plan under the previous high raw material prices can be fulfilled after the raw material prices decline. The PX fundamentals remain tight, and the spot floating price remains strong. Macro factors such as the OPEC+ meeting in July and the expiration of the tariff extension period need to be monitored, as well as the repeated risks at the geopolitical end [1] - After the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts in the short term. Affected by the low inventory in Cushing, the delivery location, the structure remains strong, and the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation has not changed. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than that of the supply side, and the market is expected to enter a state of oversupply, with a bearish medium - term market driver [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the United States has retraced again recently. With the background of new energy substitution, the upside potential of the gasoline cracking spread is limited. The domestic and foreign intermittent blending demand can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool. Since March, the export of aromatic blending materials (toluene + MX + PX) from South Korea to the United States has decreased significantly. Recently, attention should be paid to the resumption of short - flow PX plants with the recovery of profits [2] - PTA's own fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.6% month - on - month), and both domestic and foreign sales have entered the off - season. Terminal orders and start - up show a downward trend, but polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. The short - fiber inventory is not high, and although there are also production reduction news, the actual implementation is in doubt. For bottle chips, the 20% maintenance of China Resources on June 22 has been implemented, and Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance in early July, involving a production capacity of 1.7 million tons. The polyester load in July is expected to drop to 89% - 90%, and attention should be paid to the actual fulfillment [3] - The short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, and the PF's own fundamentals are acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, mostly for rigid demand procurement, and there is an expectation of weakening demand, so attention should be paid to cost - side support [3] - The spot processing fee of bottle chips is 263 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton month - on - month). With the slight loosening of sea freight in some areas, some overseas customers have replenished goods in moderation, and the inventory of polyester bottle chip factories has decreased slightly. In terms of load, the polyester bottle chip plants of China Resources in Changzhou and Jiangyin have reduced production by 20% since June 22, and Yisheng and Wankai also plan to conduct maintenance in early July, with a total production capacity of 1.7 million tons. The bottle chip load is expected to decline further. In the short term, the current bottle chip profit is still low, and the processing fee is expected to recover with the gradual fulfillment of production reduction [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX CFR China - Naphtha CFR Japan), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [74][82][84] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [91][95][98]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated as neutral [5] 2. Core Views of the Report - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading, and attention should be paid to whether the bottle chip production reduction plan can be implemented after the raw material prices decline. The fundamentals of PX remain tight, and the spot floating price remains strong [1] - If there are no new variables during the cease - fire between Israel and Iran, the oil market will shift from geopolitical to fundamental drivers. The oil market is in a stage of increasing supply and demand, with limited short - term pressure. However, in the fourth quarter, it is expected to be in a state of oversupply [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the US has declined again, and the upside potential is limited. The intermittent blending demand at home and abroad can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics entering the gasoline pool [2] - Overseas PX operation rates have declined significantly due to geopolitical conflicts and delayed restarts of some plants. Some domestic PX plants are scheduled for maintenance at the end of the month, and the spot market is still short of supply [2] - With the cancellation of a large number of warehouse receipts and the delivery of major suppliers, the tight supply situation in the PTA spot market has eased, and the fundamental contradictions of PTA are not significant [5] - The polyester operation rate is 92.0% (up 1.1% month - on - month). The domestic and foreign sales are in the off - season, but the polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. However, the inventory pressure may increase when the prices fluctuate at high levels [3] - The short - fiber inventory is not high, but the implementation of the production reduction plan is in doubt. The polyester bottle chip processing fee is still under pressure in the short term, and attention should be paid to whether the production reduction plan can be implemented and the change of container freight rates [3][4] 3. Summary According to the Directory Price and Basis - The report includes figures on TA and PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spreads, as well as PTA East China spot basis and short - fiber basis [10][11][13] Upstream Profits and Spreads - It covers PX processing fees, PTA spot processing fees, South Korean xylene isomerization profits, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profits [19][22] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - It includes toluene US - Asia spreads, toluene South Korea FOB - Japan CFR naphtha spreads, and PTA export profits [27][29] Upstream PX and PTA Operation Rates - Figures show the operation rates of PTA in China, South Korea, and Taiwan, as well as PX operation rates in China and Asia [30][33][35] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - It includes PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - It covers filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spun filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament factory inventory days, and the operation rates of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving, texturing, and dyeing [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - It includes 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spreads, pure polyester yarn operation rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn operation rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [75][85][91] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - It includes polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, the price difference between East China water bottle chips and recycled 3A - grade white bottle chips, bottle chip next - month spread, and bottle chip next - next - month spread [94][96][101]