Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the soda ash futures declined by 0.08%, and the glass futures dropped by 3.54%. The soda ash futures showed a volatile performance, mainly due to the change in expectations and the market's return to fundamental trading. The glass followed a similar trend to soda ash futures. After the Politburo meeting, the anti - involution sentiment subsided, and policy expectations for the second half of the year changed. The previously hyped upward trend has mostly reversed. Glass is expected to reverse its fundamentals first and may rise after a decline next week to repair emotional trading. Soda ash is expected to have ample supply, falling demand, and continued price pressure, while glass supply and demand are also under pressure, with prices likely to fall overall [6]. - The SA2601 contract is recommended to trade in the range of 1280 - 1350, with stop - loss in the range of 1250 - 1380. The FG2601 is advised to operate in the range of 1140 - 1200, with stop - loss in the range of 1100 - 1250 [6]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: Soda ash futures fell 0.08% this week with volatile performance due to expectation changes and a return to fundamental trading. Glass futures dropped 3.54%, following a similar trend to soda ash. After the Politburo meeting, sentiment and policy expectations changed, reversing the previous upward trend. Glass may reverse fundamentals first and rise after a decline next week [6]. - **Market Outlook**: For soda ash, supply is ample with rising domestic production and开工率. Profits are falling, which may reduce output. Natural alkali methods will replace outdated capacity. Demand from the glass industry shows signs of recovery but remains at a low level. Inventory is rising, and the de - stocking process will be uneven. Overall, supply will remain ample, demand will decline, and prices will be under pressure. For glass, supply and demand are both under pressure, with supply expected to increase slightly next week. The real - estate situation is not optimistic, and prices are likely to fall overall [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Futures Prices**: Soda ash futures declined by 0.08% this week, and glass futures dropped by 3.54% [6]. - **Spot Prices**: As of August 7, 2025, the mainstream price of heavy - soda ash in the Shahe market was 1340 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 95 yuan/ton. The price of 5.0mm large - plate glass in the Shahe market was 1104 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 80 yuan/ton [14][18]. - **Basis**: As of August 7, 2025, the soda ash basis was - 97 yuan/ton, and the glass basis was 28 yuan/ton. The soda ash basis continued to weaken, and the glass basis also weakened [14][18]. - **Price Spread**: As of August 7, 2025, the glass - soda ash price spread was 281 yuan/ton. The soda ash - glass price spread strengthened this week and is expected to continue strengthening next week [20][22]. 3. Industry Chain Analysis - **Soda Ash Production**: As of August 7, 2025, the national soda ash operating rate was 85.16%, a week - on - week increase of 5.13%, and the weekly output was 74.46 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.4% [28]. - **Profitability**: As of August 7, 2025, the theoretical profit of the dual - ton soda ash by the combined soda process was 65 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 7 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of soda ash by the ammonia - soda process was 45 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 36 yuan/ton. The weekly average profit of float glass using natural gas as fuel was - 150.36 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous week; using coal - made gas as fuel was 111.05 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 19.61%; using petroleum coke as fuel was 130.57 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 5.18% [33]. - **Glass Production**: As of August 7, 2025, there were 296 domestic glass production lines (excluding zombie lines), with 223 in operation and 73 cold - repaired. The national float glass output was 111.17 tons, a week - on - week increase of 0.16%, and is expected to remain low next week [37]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: As of August 7, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of photovoltaic glass enterprises was 66.76%, unchanged from the previous week, and the daily melting volume was 86,500 tons/day, unchanged from the previous week, and is expected to remain at a low level next week [41]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the inventory of domestic soda ash enterprises was 186.51 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6.93%. The total glass inventory was 61.847 million weight boxes, a week - on - week decrease of 3.95%, and is expected to continue de - stocking [47]. - **Downstream Demand**: As of July 31, 2025, the average order days of national deep - processing sample enterprises was 9.55 days, showing a slight recovery but still at a low level [51].

从库存结构来看，当前玻璃库存多集中于上游，中游库存不多，下游库存偏低。7月中下旬，期现商和 贸易商在期货价格上涨后释放投机需求，中间环节大量备货提振了市场产销情绪，上游库存快速去化导 致涨价信心增强，于是玻璃期现货价格共振上行。值得注意的是，下游加工厂订单恢复速度不及预期， 在终端订单不足且下游资金并不充裕的前提下，中上游货源流向下游的速度偏慢，若后期需求没有明显 增长，则中游的投机库存仍需一段时间进行消化。 综合来看，玻璃产业供应处于近五年同期低位，但终端需求相对偏弱，短期价格缺乏持续上涨的动能， 预计中期期货市场将逐渐回归基本面交易。在"反内卷"相关政策出台后，产业的成本支撑将有所增强。 因此，在当前的市场环境下，玻璃价格下行空间或逐渐收窄，但上行的持续性取决于政策力度和需求情 况。（作者单位：齐盛期货） （文章来源：期货日报） 自7月底以来，玻璃期货价格大幅回调，市场波动率显著收敛；现货价格平稳运行，市场成交量趋于稳 定，部分地区产销量大幅回落。当前下游订单水平一般，加之下游中小企业较多，资金压力相对较大， 虽然7月中旬现货价格快速上涨，但终端备货意愿始终偏弱。 近期，"反内卷"政策对供应预期影响较大。 ...

「 2025.08.01 」 纯碱玻璃市场周报 研究员:黄闻杰 期货从业资格号F03142112 期货投资咨询从业证书号Z0021738 取 更 多 资 讯 关 注 我 们 获 业 务 咨 询 添 加 客 服 瑞达期货研究院 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业链分析 「 周度要点小结」 4 「 期现市场」 3 u 行情回顾：本周纯碱期货下跌12.78%，玻璃期货下跌19.09%，本周纯碱期货出现了大幅下跌的表现， 主要原因来自于政治局会议后，市场反内卷会议情绪退却以及对下半年政策预期出现了改变，前期炒作 上行的行情，本周基本上全部跌回去，本周依旧属于情绪化交易为主，基本面正逐步发力，在产量小幅 下滑，下周有望继续回归基本面交易，玻璃方面本周和纯碱期货走势大致相同，政治局会议后，市场反 内卷会议情绪退却以及对下半年政策预期出现了改变，前期炒作上行的行情，本周基本上全部跌回去。 目前，玻璃落后产能后续将逐步淘汰，产能筑底，库存筑顶，整体来看有望率先实现基本面反转，下周 有望重新开启基本面交易，修复本周过度下跌行情。 u 行情展望：纯碱方面，供应端来看国内纯碱开工率下滑，纯碱产量下行，主要原因来自于检修 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - PX/PTA/PF/PR are rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The futures products of the polyester industry chain have returned to fundamental trading. Attention should be paid to whether the bottle chip production reduction plan under the previous high raw material prices can be fulfilled after the raw material prices decline. The PX fundamentals remain tight, and the spot floating price remains strong. Macro factors such as the OPEC+ meeting in July and the expiration of the tariff extension period need to be monitored, as well as the repeated risks at the geopolitical end [1] - After the game of the Middle East conflict, the crude oil market will focus on fundamentals and tariff impacts in the short term. Affected by the low inventory in Cushing, the delivery location, the structure remains strong, and the pattern of strong reality and weak expectation has not changed. However, in the fourth quarter of this year, after the peak season ends, the demand growth elasticity will be significantly smaller than that of the supply side, and the market is expected to enter a state of oversupply, with a bearish medium - term market driver [2] - The gasoline cracking spread in the United States has retraced again recently. With the background of new energy substitution, the upside potential of the gasoline cracking spread is limited. The domestic and foreign intermittent blending demand can be basically met by naphtha, which restricts the enthusiasm of aromatics to enter the gasoline pool. Since March, the export of aromatic blending materials (toluene + MX + PX) from South Korea to the United States has decreased significantly. Recently, attention should be paid to the resumption of short - flow PX plants with the recovery of profits [2] - PTA's own fundamentals are neutral, and attention should be paid to cost and demand support. The polyester start - up rate is 91.4% (down 0.6% month - on - month), and both domestic and foreign sales have entered the off - season. Terminal orders and start - up show a downward trend, but polyester performance is relatively good, and the load is firm. The short - fiber inventory is not high, and although there are also production reduction news, the actual implementation is in doubt. For bottle chips, the 20% maintenance of China Resources on June 22 has been implemented, and Wankai Yisheng plans to start maintenance in early July, involving a production capacity of 1.7 million tons. The polyester load in July is expected to drop to 89% - 90%, and attention should be paid to the actual fulfillment [3] - The short - fiber spot is tight and the inventory is not high, and the PF's own fundamentals are acceptable, but the downstream's acceptance of high raw material prices is limited, mostly for rigid demand procurement, and there is an expectation of weakening demand, so attention should be paid to cost - side support [3] - The spot processing fee of bottle chips is 263 yuan/ton (down 30 yuan/ton month - on - month). With the slight loosening of sea freight in some areas, some overseas customers have replenished goods in moderation, and the inventory of polyester bottle chip factories has decreased slightly. In terms of load, the polyester bottle chip plants of China Resources in Changzhou and Jiangyin have reduced production by 20% since June 22, and Yisheng and Wankai also plan to conduct maintenance in early July, with a total production capacity of 1.7 million tons. The bottle chip load is expected to decline further. In the short term, the current bottle chip profit is still low, and the processing fee is expected to recover with the gradual fulfillment of production reduction [4] Summary by Directory Price and Basis - Figures include TA main contract, basis, and inter - period spread trends; PX main contract trends, basis, and inter - period spread; PTA East China spot basis; and short - fiber 1.56D*38mm semi - bright natural white basis [9][10][12] Upstream Profits and Spreads - Figures cover PX processing fee PXN (PX CFR China - Naphtha CFR Japan), PTA spot processing fee, South Korean xylene isomerization profit, and South Korean STDP selective disproportionation profit [18][21] International Spreads and Import - Export Profits - Figures involve toluene US - Asia spread (FOB US Gulf - FOB South Korea), toluene South Korea FOB - Japan naphtha CFR, and PTA export profit [26][27] Upstream PX and PTA Start - up - Figures show China's PTA load, South Korea's PTA load, Taiwan's PTA load, China's PX load, and Asia's PX load [29][32][33] Social Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - Figures include PTA weekly social inventory, PX monthly social inventory, PTA total warehouse receipts + forecast volume, PTA warehouse warehouse receipt inventory, PX warehouse receipt inventory, and PF warehouse receipt inventory [39][42][43] Downstream Polyester Load - Figures cover filament production and sales, short - fiber production and sales, polyester load, direct - spinning filament load, polyester staple fiber load, polyester bottle chip load, filament DTY factory inventory days, filament FDY factory inventory days, filament POY factory inventory days, Jiangsu and Zhejiang loom start - up rate, Jiangsu and Zhejiang texturing start - up rate, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang dyeing start - up rate [50][52][63] PF Detailed Data - Figures include polyester staple fiber load, polyester staple fiber factory equity inventory days, 1.4D physical inventory, 1.4D equity inventory, recycled cotton - type staple fiber load, raw - recycled spread (1.4D polyester staple - 1.4D imitation large - chemical fiber), pure polyester yarn start - up rate, pure polyester yarn production profit, polyester - cotton yarn start - up rate, polyester - cotton yarn processing fee, pure polyester yarn factory inventory available days, and polyester - cotton yarn factory inventory available days [74][82][84] PR Fundamental Detailed Data - Figures involve polyester bottle chip load, bottle chip factory bottle chip inventory days, bottle chip spot processing fee, bottle chip export processing fee, bottle chip export profit, East China water bottle chip - recycled 3A - grade white bottle chip, bottle chip next - month spread (next month - base month), and bottle chip next - next - month spread (next - next month - base month) [91][95][98]

化工日报 | 2025-06-27 宏观回归平淡，PX基本面偏强维持 市场要闻与数据 市场分析 成本端，如果伊以停火期间没有出现新的变数，则未来油市主要运行逻辑将从地缘政治重回基本面驱动。就当前 原油基本面而言，油市进入供需双增阶段，短期压力有限。但展望今年四季度，旺季结束后需求增长弹性将显著 小于供应端，原注预计进入到供过于求的状态，中期市场驱动偏空。 汽油和芳烃方面，近期美国汽油裂解再度回撤，在新能源替代的背景下预计汽油裂解价差上涨空间有限，今年的 调油需求已不值得过多的期待，国内外间歇性调油需求依靠石脑油基本可以满足，限制芳烃进入汽油池的积极性。 芳烃方面，3~5月韩国出口到美国的芳烃调油料甲苯+MX+PX有明显下降，近期关注利润恢复下PX短流程装置恢复 情况，短流程利润修复下，PX 工厂重新开始外采 MX 。 PX方面，上上个交易日PXN270美元/吨(环比变动-3.00美元/吨）。近期中东地缘冲突导致伊朗、以色列PX装置停车， 沙特Rabigh芳烃装置重启延后, 海外PX开工下滑相对明显。月底国内几套PX装置计划检修，目前现货市场货源仍 较紧张，PX浮动价依然偏强，关注后续PTA检修和新装置投产进展 ...