Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The current situation of the 30 - year treasury bond represents a prime opportunity for allocation. Despite the year - end bond market being likely to remain range - bound, there is a chance of early position - taking and a warming market. The significant increase in the 30 - year treasury bond yield is mainly driven by trading sentiment rather than fundamental or liquidity factors. From multiple perspectives including term spread, interest rate comparison, and institutional behavior, it is a good time to allocate [3][9][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalog 3.1 30 - year Treasury Bond Market Analysis - **Institutional Mindset Perspective**: At the end of the year, institutions' demand for returns is generally weak. In the first quarter of next year, wealth management and insurance institutions may have the intention to scramble for bonds. The bond market is likely to remain range - bound this year, but there is an opportunity for early position - taking and a market upswing at the year - end [3][9]. - **Analysis of Yield Increase Reasons**: The sharp rise in the yield of long - term treasury bonds is mainly due to trading sentiment. Public funds sell to avoid risks, securities firms amplify fluctuations through trading, while large banks recognize the allocation value of long - term bonds and buy them [9]. - **Term Spread Perspective**: The 30 - 10 term spread has returned to a recent high. Before the household sector increases leverage, it is difficult for the risk preference to drive the long - term spread to a higher level. The long - term spread is related to the risk preference and reflects the marginal change in the household debt cycle. Currently, the household leverage ratio is in a stable phase, and the long - term spread is unlikely to return to a very high level [3][11][13]. - **Interest Rate Comparison Perspective**: After tax deduction, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond is equal to the mortgage rate. According to the central bank's requirement of no inversion, the yield of the 30 - year treasury bond should not rise significantly. Although this comparison is not strictly valid, it can be used as a pricing reference [3][12][13]. - **Institutional Behavior Perspective**: Recently, public funds focus on risk avoidance, and bank self - operation focuses on allocation. Large banks are buying long - term bonds again, while securities firms amplify fluctuations in trading. The increase in the yield of long - term treasury bonds driven by trading sentiment is a good time for allocation [3][9][13].

Core Insights - The 30-year government bond ETF from Bosera has shown a recent increase of 0.05%, with a cumulative rise of 1.44% over the past month as of July 4, 2025 [2] - Trading activity for the 30-year government bond ETF has been robust, with a turnover rate of 8.13% and a transaction volume of 619 million yuan [2] - The fund has experienced significant net inflows, totaling approximately 31.9 million yuan over the last five trading days, indicating strong investor interest [2][3] Trading Activity - The trading volume for the 30-year government bond ETF has seen a notable increase since May 8, 2025, despite a slight recent decline [2] - The average daily trading volume over the past week was 2.391 billion yuan, reflecting high liquidity [2] - The ETF's latest scale reached 7.607 billion yuan, showcasing its growing market presence [2] Fund Performance - The 30-year government bond ETF has achieved a net value increase of 14.13% over the past year, ranking 5th out of 410 index bond funds [3] - Historical performance indicates a maximum monthly return of 5.35% and a longest consecutive monthly gain of 4 months, with an average monthly return of 2.09% [3] - The fund has a 100% probability of profitability over a one-year holding period, with a maximum drawdown of 6.89% since inception [3] Financial Metrics - The management fee for the 30-year government bond ETF is set at 0.15%, while the custody fee is 0.05% [3] - The tracking error over the past month is reported at 0.041%, indicating strong tracking precision [3] Index Tracking - The ETF closely tracks the Shanghai Stock Exchange 30-year government bond index, which is composed of bonds meeting specific deliverable conditions for the 30-year government bond futures [4]