哈喽，大家好，今天小睿这篇市场观察，聚焦六大核心指标拆解 A 股当前性价比，估值合理但情绪降 温，现在该抄底还是观望？ 临近2025年末，A 股市场呈现出 "数据矛盾" 的独特格局，估值指标显示市场处于合理区间，资金面持 续回暖，但情绪指标却发出谨慎信号。 判断市场 "贵不贵"估值是核心锚点，根据近5年PE/PB估值分位规则，当前 A 股整体处于中估区间，但 结构分化明显。 董承非分享的偏股基金指数指标更具参考性，当近3年年化收益率大于30%为泡沫阶段，为熊市底部， 而当前该指标仅 3.6%，意味着市场位置仍处于相对安全区域。 从全局看巴菲特指标当前为87%，处于 60%-90% 的合理区间，对比2024年底的63.59% 显著提升，但远 低于美股 230% 的水平，凸显成长空间。 合理区间内的结构分化 股债性价比进一步验证了 "不便宜也不贵" 的结论，全A指数股债性价比2.78%，接近近10年 2.56% 的均 值，处于近 10 年前 43.17% 分位，即比历史上 56.83% 的时期更具吸引力。 不过结构分化值得关注，创业板指近 10 年估值分位仅 28.98%，而沪深 300、中证 500 均超 70 ...

Market Overview - As of May 19, the A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising slightly by 0.12 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index and the ChiNext Index saw minor declines of 0.08% and 0.33% respectively [1] - The total trading volume in the A-share market was 1.12 trillion yuan, a decrease of 5.2 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] Sector Performance - The merger and acquisition, port shipping, pet economy, and real estate sectors showed strong performance, with the comprehensive, environmental protection, and real estate industries leading gains at 1.99%, 1.87%, and 1.75% respectively [2] - The merger and acquisition concept saw significant gains, with stocks like Wuxin Tunnel Equipment hitting a 30% limit up, and Jiangtian Chemical and Guangzhi Technology both reaching 20% limit up [2] Regulatory Impact - On May 16, the China Securities Regulatory Commission announced amendments to the "Management Measures for Major Asset Restructuring of Listed Companies," which is expected to enhance market vitality and increase the enthusiasm for mergers and acquisitions among listed companies [2] - Analysts suggest that the new regulations will likely lead to an increase in merger and acquisition projects and related financing activities, providing more opportunities for securities firms to participate as financial advisors [2] Valuation and Market Sentiment - The rolling price-to-earnings ratio for the entire A-share market was reported at 19.07 times, while the CSI 300 index stood at 12.53 times, indicating that A-shares still offer a favorable valuation compared to other markets [3] - Analysts believe that the current market is in a high cost-performance range, with strong policy support expected to stabilize the economy and market, suggesting a potential return to an upward trend after short-term profit-taking pressures are released [3]