[Table_Page] 宏观经济研究报告 2026 年 1 月 4 日 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 广发宏观 12 月 PMI 反季节性回升的中观线索 [Tabl e_Author] 分析师： 郭磊 分析师： 王丹 SAC 执证号：S0260516070002 SFC CE.no: BNY419 SAC 执证号：S0260521040001 021-38003572 guolei@gf.com.cn bjwangdan@gf.com.cn 请注意，王丹并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 [Table_Summary] 报告摘要： ⚫ 2025 年 12 月制造业 PMI 环比上行 0.9 个点至 50.1；过去 10 年（2015-2024 年）12 月环比均值为下降 0.3 个 点，12 月 PMI 环比上行显著超季节性趋势。在前期报告《PMI 年末超季节性反弹的可能原因》中，我们基于 宏观角度做过初步分析。从中观视角进一步来看，景气面并未扩大；但高技术制造业景气中枢进一步上移，是 制造业 PMI 上行的主要带动力量。 据中采咨询（下同），2025 年 ...

Market Review - Global stock indices continued the "strong East, weak West" pattern, with US stocks declining due to concerns over Trump's tariff policies and economic recession, while A-shares rose, driven by the consumer and financial sectors, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through the 3400-point mark on Friday [1] - In the primary sectors, beauty care, food and beverage, and coal sectors led the gains, while computer, machinery, and electronics sectors saw declines [1] - In commodities, concerns over US tariffs drove precious metal prices higher, with gold prices reaching a new historical high this week [1] Market Outlook - Large consumer spending is expected to receive policy support, with the current bull market likely transitioning from a technology-driven rally to a broad-based increase, benefiting from consumption policies and related resource sectors [2] - The focus is on domestic demand sectors benefiting from consumption policies and resource sectors related to price increases; the medium-term outlook remains positive for technology trends under the "new quality bull" asset line, particularly in AI applications, low-altitude economy, and domestic substitution [2] - The current bull market in Chinese technology stocks reflects confidence in the sector and is expected to improve consumer expectations, with the market likely transitioning from a technology theme to a broad-based rally [2] - The valuation of the Chinese technology index remains reasonable, with the AI+ industry trend expected to drive long-term growth; the current AI investment phase is shifting from overseas mapping to domestic industry chain investments, indicating a longer and broader market duration [2]