2025 年 06 月 30 日 马斯克公布脑机接口进展，Neuralink 估值快速 上升 推荐(维持) 事件 分析师：林子健 S1050523090001 linzj@cfsc.com.cn 行业相对表现 ▌Neuralink 展示新产品方向，有望链接生物大脑与 外部机器 | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 汽车(申万) | -0.4 | -3.0 | 30.0 | | 沪深 300 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 13.7 | 市场表现 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 (%) 汽车 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《汽车行业点评报告：商务部开 展 2025 年千县万镇新能源汽车消费 季活动，政策加码新能源车下乡再 提速》2025-06-29 2、《汽车行业周报：Robotaxi 开启 试运营，人形机器人中长期信心不 改》2025-06-26 3、《汽车行业周报：人形机器人渠 道+应用场景加速落地，汽车供应链 迎来 60 天账期新变革》2025-06-16 当地时间 6 月 27 日，马斯克旗下脑机 ...

Macro News - The People's Bank of China emphasized the need to implement incremental policies to stimulate economic recovery, focusing on supporting technological innovation and consumption [2] - The Ministry of Commerce of China firmly opposes unilateral tariff measures by the U.S. that harm Chinese interests, advocating for fair negotiations [3] - U.S. President Trump announced the immediate cessation of all trade negotiations with Canada due to Canada's proposed digital services tax [4][5][6] Regulatory Actions - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is taking strict actions against Nanjing Yuebo Power System Co., Ltd. for information disclosure violations, holding both the company and responsible individuals accountable [7] - Major adjustments are being proposed for the A-share market, including a change in the price fluctuation limit for risk-warning stocks from 5% to 10% [8] Market Adjustments - The Hong Kong Stock Exchange will increase transaction fees from 0.002% to 0.0042% starting June 30, 2025, affecting mainland investors participating in various trading activities [9][11] Company Developments - Neuralink, a company owned by Elon Musk, plans to implant brain-machine interface chips in the speech cortex by Q4 2025, with ambitious goals for enhancing human capabilities and treating neurological conditions by 2028 [12] - Hong Kong's Financial Secretary announced that the Stablecoin Regulation will take effect on August 1, 2025, aiming to create a favorable market environment for stablecoin applications [13] - China Rare Earth Group clarified that recent executive changes were part of normal personnel adjustments and did not affect the company's operations [14] - Xiaomi responded to concerns regarding a vehicle fire incident during testing, clarifying that the vehicle's braking system remained functional [15] - Tesla successfully completed its first fully autonomous delivery of a Model Y, showcasing advancements in self-driving technology [16] Market Insights - Everbright Securities predicts that the market index will remain volatile, with a focus on domestic consumption and domestic substitution themes [21] - Dongwu Securities anticipates a significant possibility of the index breaking last year's high, with growth stocks expected to lead the market [22] - China Galaxy Securities forecasts that COMEX gold prices could reach $3,500 per ounce under extreme risk scenarios, while WTI oil prices may fluctuate based on geopolitical developments [23]

Group 1 - The resurgence of Huawei has prompted domestic smartphone manufacturers to intensify their efforts in the small-screen smartphone segment, aiming to attract Apple iPhone users by bridging the ecosystem gap with iOS [1][2] - Vivo has launched the S30 series, including the S30Pro mini, featuring a 6.31-inch small screen and supporting file sharing with iPhones, reflecting a broader industry trend [1][2] - Other manufacturers like OPPO, OnePlus, Xiaomi, and Samsung have also introduced small-screen models around 6.3 inches, indicating a collective industry shift towards this form factor [1][2] Group 2 - The popularity of small-screen smartphones is on the rise, with IDC forecasting a 23% year-on-year increase in shipments in China by 2025, as over 50% of consumers show active interest in these models [2] - OPPO's former China president highlighted that extensive research indicated a preference for phones around 71mm in width, correlating with the 6.3-inch size, as users seek optimal hand feel [2] - Small-screen models are perceived as alternatives to the iPhone due to their similar design, with Vivo branding its flagship as the "strongest iPhone alternative" [2] Group 3 - Honor emphasizes its commitment to open collaboration with industry leaders to establish unified AI interconnectivity standards, enhancing user experience without directly impacting sales [3] - OnePlus acknowledges the high manufacturing difficulty and costs associated with small-screen phones but remains optimistic about the market's potential, actively working with suppliers to support production [3] - Analysts predict that the small-screen smartphone market may experience significant growth, potentially becoming the second growth curve following the foldable smartphone trend [3]

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the **cloud service provider (CSP)** industry and advancements in **AI connectivity** technology. Key Points and Arguments CSP Capital Expenditure - **Overseas CSP capital expenditure** is better than market expectations, with the top four CSPs spending a total of **$71.1 billion** in Q1 2025, representing a **59% year-over-year increase** [1] - Individual expenditures include: - **Microsoft**: **$15.8 billion**, up **59%** - **Google**: **$17.2 billion**, up **43%** - **Amazon**: **$24.3 billion**, up **62%** - **Meta**: **$12.9 billion**, up **93%** [1] - Meta has raised its full-year capital expenditure plan for 2025 to a range of **$64 billion to $72 billion**, up from the previous estimate of **$60 billion to $65 billion** [1] - According to Bloomberg, the capital expenditure growth rate for these four CSPs is projected to reach **40%** in 2025 [1] AI Connectivity Breakthroughs - **Huawei** has launched the **CloudMatrix 384**, which consists of **384 Ascend 910C computing cards**, making it the largest single-node scale among currently commercialized supernodes [1] - The **DeepSeek-R1** service, based on the CloudMatrix 384 supernode, has been officially launched in collaboration with **Silicon-based Flow** and **Huawei Cloud**. It guarantees a single-user throughput of **20 TPS** while achieving a decoding throughput of **1920 Tokens/s**, comparable to the performance of **H100 deployments** [2] Valuation and Investment Opportunities - The **computing power industry chain** is viewed as having a favorable valuation with potential for recovery. Companies mentioned include: - **New Yisheng** - **Zhongji Xuchuang** - **Tianfu Communication** - **Taicheng Technology** - **Bochuang Technology** - **Yingweike** - **Chunzhong Technology** - **Huafeng Technology** - **Oulutong** - **Yihua Co.** - **Unisplendour** - **Shenling Environment** - **Gaolan Co.** - **Yingweike** - **Guanghuan New Network** - **Runze Technology** [3] Risk Factors - A key risk highlighted is the potential for **AI application development** to fall short of expectations [4]

② 光纤在线，光迅科技将于OFC 2025期间推出搭载3nm DSP芯片的升级版 本/以延续高速可插拔光模块在AI互联场景的生命周期/ 行情速递 ①主板领涨， 直真科技(+10.01%)/神州信息(+9.99%)/三维通信(+9.96%)/大晟文化(+9.94%)/ 返利科技(+6.22%)/ ②创业板领涨， 天和防务(+7.19%)/久之洋(+7.16%)/恒信东方(+6.38%)/ ③科创板领涨， 普元信息 (+5.14%)/国光电气(+5.13%)/科思科技(+4.48%)/ ④活跃子行业， SW通信线缆及配套(+2.52%)/SW教育出版(+0.68%)/ 国内新闻 ① OLEDindustry，华星光电正计划为其从LG Display收购的中国广州液晶 显示器（LCD）工厂实现零部件供应链多元化/华星光电将于下个月1日收购 广州LCD工厂/并从当天起直接运营/ ② PSOnline，韩国电池制造商SK On宣布同日产汽车签署电池供应合同/SK On计划在2028至2033年间向日产供应近100GWh的美国制造高性能高镍软 包电池/所生产电池将供应给日产美国密西西比州工厂/生产新一代电动汽车/ ③ 半 ...