Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report Core Views - Overseas, gold continues to rise, and the marginal disorder of the interest rate cut path may bring short - term stagnation points. In the medium - to - long - term, the global geopolitical situation is in the "G0" era, with a higher probability of frequent local black - swan events. The structure of fiscal policy efforts and monetary policy support remains unchanged, and the outlook remains bullish. Attention should be paid to the crowding - out effect of the strong AI capital cycle on traditional sectors, and monetary and fiscal policies are expected to remain double - loose. Supply - demand gaps may appear in both traditional and pan - AI technology sectors, with more attention on supply elasticity in the former and demand elasticity in the latter, and then combine price with volume to find structural allocation opportunities [1][37] - The domestic equity market is generally volatile, and the convertible bond market is also highly differentiated, with high - price and small - and medium - cap styles outperforming, showing significant structural features. Investors are advised to adopt a traditional "dumbbell" layout in terms of style, investing in low - price (high - probability) and high - price (high - odds) targets, and diversify across industries. Confirm the performance bottom in traditional sectors and seize the rotation and spread of pan - main themes in growth sectors, focusing on bottom - up and micro - alpha factors [1][37] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Week - on - Week Market Review 1.1. Equity Market Generally Rose - From January 12th to January 16th, the equity market generally rose. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to close at 4101.91 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.14% to close at 14281.08 points, the ChiNext Index rose 1.00% to close at 3361.02 points, and the CSI 300 fell 0.57% to close at 4731.87 points. The average daily turnover of the two markets increased by approximately 9025.95 billion yuan to 32408.73 billion yuan, a week - on - week increase of 38.60% [6][8] - On different trading days, the market trends and sector performances varied. For example, on January 12th, the three major indices rose, and sectors such as AIGC and文化传媒 led the gains; on January 13th, they fell, and sectors like AI applications and precious metals led the gains [9] - Among the 31 Shenwan primary industries, 13 industries closed up this week, with 4 industries rising more than 2%. The computer, electronics, non - ferrous metals, media, and machinery industries led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, coal, banking, and non - bank finance industries led the losses [13] 1.2. Convertible Bond Market Generally Fell - From January 12th to January 16th, the CSI Convertible Bond Index rose 1.08%. Among the 29 Shenwan primary industries, 19 industries closed up, with 6 industries rising more than 2%. The computer, machinery, electronics, media, and communication industries led the gains, while the national defense and military industry, coal, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, transportation, and non - bank finance industries led the losses [15] - The average daily turnover of the convertible bond market was 1045.19 billion yuan, a significant decrease of 533.79 billion yuan, a week - on - week change of - 33.81%. The top ten convertible bonds in terms of turnover were Jiamei Convertible Bond, Dingjie Convertible Bond, etc. The average turnover of the top ten convertible bonds reached 110.24 billion yuan, with the first - place turnover reaching 238.54 billion yuan [15] - Approximately 60.57% of individual convertible bonds rose, about 21.13% rose in the 0 - 1% range, and 27.84% rose more than 2% [15] - In terms of the conversion premium rate, the overall market conversion premium rate increased, and there were different changes in different price, parity, rating, and scale intervals. In terms of industry, 8 industries' conversion premium rates widened, and 20 industries' conversion parities increased [21][26][30] 1.3. Comparison of Stock and Bond Market Sentiments - This week, the weekly weighted average and median of the convertible bond and underlying stock markets were negative, and the convertible bond's weekly increase was greater. The convertible bond market turnover increased by 10.32% week - on - week and was at the 93.50% quantile level since 2022; the underlying stock market turnover increased by 23.93% week - on - week and was at the 99.50% quantile level since 2022. Overall, the underlying stock market trading sentiment was better [34] - On different trading days, the trading sentiment of the stock and bond markets also varied. For example, on January 12th, the underlying stock market trading sentiment was better; on January 13th, the convertible bond market trading sentiment was better [35] 2. Outlook and Investment Strategy - Maintain the previous view of focusing on the crowding - out effect of the strong AI capital cycle on traditional sectors, with double - loose monetary and fiscal policies. Look for structural allocation opportunities by considering supply and demand elasticities in different sectors [1][37] - For convertible bonds, adopt a "dumbbell" layout in style and diversify across industries. Confirm the performance bottom in traditional sectors and seize pan - main theme rotation and spread in growth sectors [1][37] - The top ten high - rated, medium - and low - priced convertible bonds with the greatest potential for conversion parity premium rate repair next week are Chutian Convertible Bond, Lizhong Convertible Bond, etc. [1][38]

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收周报 固收周报 20260118 周观：结构性降息后，债市将如何表现？ （2026 年第 3 期） [Table_Summary] [Table_Summary] 观点 ◼ 如何理解结构性降息和"今年降准降息还有一定空间"？本周 （2026.1.12-2026.1.16），10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.886% 下行 4.3bp 至本周五的 1.843%。周度复盘：周一（1.12），早盘财政对个 人消费贷和小微贷进行贴息的消息令债市情绪偏空，利率小幅上行。股 市开盘后有所下跌加之资金保持宽松，债市有所修复。随后股市明显上 涨，但国债期货走势也较强带动现券走强，出现"股债双牛"，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 1.5bp。周二（1.13），今日有 6000 亿元买断 式逆回购到期，但央行并未提前按照惯例公布续作信息，债市对于资金 面情绪谨慎，令利率上行。午后关于买断式逆回购将放量续作的预期发 酵，带动利率修复式下行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 1.1bp。 周三（1.14），早盘资金面收紧，股市大涨，叠加进出口数据较强，均对 债市构成压制，利率出现上行。午 ...