◼ 7 月基本面数据陆续公布，为何债市显现出"脱敏"性质？ ◼ A：本周（2025.8.11-2025.8.15），10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.691%上行 5.4bp 至 1.745%。 周度复盘：周一（8.11），早盘受周末公布的 7 月物价数据低于预期影 响，利率有所下行。随后股市和碳酸锂商品期货大涨，利率转为上行， 全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 2.65bp。周二（8.12），早盘受中美 正式延长 90 天的关税暂停期消息影响，利率出现上行，随后股市出现 短暂下行，股债跷跷板效应下利率小幅下行。临近尾盘财政部公布贴息 政策，意在刺激消费，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 1bp。周三 （8.13），上证指数突破去年 10 月 8 日高点，但受午后买断式逆回购询 价降息消息影响，债市仍然维持一定韧性。尾盘 7 月金融数据公布，其 中 7 月信贷新增值为-500 亿元，同比少增 3100 亿元，结构上仅有票据 融资提供冲量作用。虽然季初为传统的信贷小月，但公布的数据仍显著 低于预期，但债市对于该信息显示出"脱敏"的特点，利率并未大幅下 行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 0 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced a significant adjustment since July, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.64% to over 1.7%, and the 30-year bond yield fluctuating above 1.9% [1] - Economic resilience in China is a key factor supporting the bond market adjustment, with indicators showing strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, and a gradual recovery in loans [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have also influenced the bond market, with rising prices in commodities like polysilicon and coking coal, driven by government initiatives to stabilize growth [2] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for the bond market is bearish, with expectations of continued pressure due to economic resilience and rising risk appetite [3][4] - Long-term support factors for the bond market include strong monetary policy support and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may lead to a slight decrease in government bond yields [3][4] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address supply-demand imbalances, suggesting that monetary policy will remain accommodative to support economic adjustments, providing some support for the bond market [4]

Group 1 - The recent increase in risk appetite has led to a strong stock market, which has put pressure on the bond market, raising questions about the sustainability of the current stock-bond switch and whether the "bond bull" trend has ended [1] - Since mid-July, the A-share market has shown significant strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key levels of 3500 and 3600 points, and trading volume reaching 1.93 trillion yuan on July 22, the highest since March 7 [1] - Despite the stock market's performance, the bond market has not experienced panic selling, with the yield on 10-year government bonds only rising by 5.45 basis points in July, indicating a cautious market outlook on growth and inflation factors [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of the A-share market this year has been primarily driven by bank stocks and small-cap stocks, while cyclical sectors such as steel, coal, real estate, and consumer goods have lagged behind [2] - The "anti-involution" policy signals and the development of hydropower projects have boosted market expectations for economic fundamentals, but the sustainability of cyclical stock and commodity price increases remains uncertain due to challenges in capacity reduction policies and weak demand [2] - The economic fundamentals show a mixed picture, with external uncertainties and a need for stronger domestic demand, while monetary policy remains accommodative [3] Group 3 - Current price levels are low, with CPI and core CPI remaining subdued, and PPI showing an expanding year-on-year decline, which affects corporate revenue and consumer confidence [3] - The government is actively increasing leverage, but the willingness of the real economy to expand credit remains insufficient, leading to weak demand for credit from enterprises and households [3] - Although local government bond issuance has accelerated, it mainly addresses refinancing of hidden debts, with new bond issuance lagging behind historical averages, potentially delaying economic support [3] Group 4 - Overall, the market environment for the "bond bull" has not fundamentally changed, but short-term fluctuations in the bond market may increase due to low long-term interest rates and heightened attractiveness of the stock market [4]

| | 1Y 2Y 3Y 5 5Y - 7 7 7 7 | 10Y | 超长债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | 1.4200 1 1 1 0.40 1 2 3.50 1 2 3.50 1 2 2.00 1 1 2 4.00 1 2 4.50 1 1 1 5.00 1 1 1 6.40 | | | | | 250008.IB 250006.IB 250005.IB 250003.IB 250007.IB 250004.IB 230023.IB | | | | | 1.4850 国开 2.00 0.00 2.50 2.75 6.00 5.00 5.00 | | | | | 210203.IB 160213.IB 230203.IB 250203.IB 250205.IB 210220.IB | | | | 口行 | 1.4500 -- 1.5700 -- 1.6200 -- 1.6600 -- 1.7550 1.8175 1.8500 -- 2.00 0 20 0 0 0 0 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 2.00 0 0 0 0 3.00 0 0 0 0 0 ...

银行间主要利率债收益率短线拉升，10年期国债活跃券收益率上行3.4bp，30年期国债活跃券收益率上 行5.15bp。 | | 3Y 5Y 5 1Y = 10Y | 2Y | 7Y | 超长债 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国债 | 1.4050 1.4200 1.4400 1.4400 1.4925 1.5950 1.6600 1.9275 1 - 1.10 - 1.10 - 2.00 - 2.00 - 2.00 - 2.75 - 2.75 - 3.50 - 3.50 - 3.50 - - 3.50 - - - 5.15 | | | | | | 250008.IB 250006.IB 250005.IB 250003.IB 250007.IB 250004.IB 230023.IB | | | | | 園 | 1.4700 1.5250 1.5450 1.7050 1.7050 1.7300 1.9550 1 - 1 - 0.50 | | | | | | 210203.IB 230207.IB 230203.IB 240208.IB 250205.IB 210220. ...

Report Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating Core View - Due to the escalation of tariff games and heightened expectations of monetary easing, as well as the influence of risk aversion, the bond market has risen significantly. Short - term risk aversion still favors the bond market, and the Treasury bond futures market may be strong. However, as bond yields approach the previous low of the year and the downward trend of capital interest rates has stalled, it may restrict the decline of long - term bond yields. Attention should be paid to the central bank's capital injection and subsequent pro - consumption and loose fiscal policies, which may bring fluctuations to the bond market [1][6][13] Summary by Directory 1. Tariff Game Escalation, Rising Expectations of Monetary Easing - The US announced a "reciprocal tariff" plan, increasing tariffs on China by 34%, with cumulative tariffs potentially exceeding 60%. China imposed a 34% tariff on all US imports in response. The tariff game and trade friction may enter a deeper stage [1] - In the previous round of trade frictions in 2018, China's exports to the US declined rapidly. This time, with higher tariff increases, short - term net exports are likely to fall. In Q1 2025, the contribution rate of net exports to China's GDP reached 45.8%. Under the pressure of external demand, the market's expectation of looser monetary policy has increased. Short - term reserve requirement ratio cuts may be relatively mature, while interest rate cuts still need fundamental signals [2] 2. Risk Aversion Drives the Stock - Bond Seesaw to Favor the Bond Market - The current trade game has entered a deeper stage, and there is great uncertainty about the actual implementation of tariffs, negotiation conditions, and time, which may suppress risk appetite in the short term. The stock market declined significantly today, which is favorable for the bond market from the perspective of the stock - bond seesaw. In the medium term, domestic policies are sufficient, and the domestic economy has resilience, but the short - term decline in global risk appetite will continue to support the bond market [6] 3. Capital Interest Rates Have Not Declined Further, Need to Pay Attention to the Impact of Subsequent Growth - Stabilizing Policies on the Bond Market Rhythm - Since early April, capital interest rates and certificate of deposit rates have declined, which has boosted the bond market. However, the decline of capital interest rates has stalled. On April 7, the central bank conducted a net withdrawal of 301.7 billion yuan in the open market, and the 7 - day capital interest rate of depository institutions was around 1.75%, and the non - bank capital interest rate was around 1.8%, not lower than before the Tomb - Sweeping Festival [7] - As of April 7, the yield of the 10 - year Treasury bond has dropped to around 1.64%, only 4BP away from the January low. Currently, the decline in bond yields is mainly due to risk aversion and easing expectations. Considering the short - term pressure of RMB depreciation, it is uncertain whether capital interest rates can decline further. As bond yields approach the previous low, a 35 - 40BP interest rate cut is gradually being priced in, but the policy rhythm is still uncertain. Fiscal policies are likely to be strengthened in Q2, and subsequent capital interest rate trends and growth - stabilizing policies will determine the bond market rhythm [8] 4. Outlook for Treasury Bond Futures - Affected by expectations of monetary easing, risk aversion, and the stock - bond seesaw effect, Treasury bond futures opened higher and closed up today. Short - term risk aversion still favors the bond market, but the lack of further decline in capital interest rates may restrict the decline of long - term bond yields. Attention should be paid to the central bank's capital injection and bank - to - bank capital. Subsequent pro - consumption and loose fiscal policies may bring fluctuations to the bond market. It is recommended that investors hold long positions in the short term and stop profits in a timely manner if capital interest rates rise marginally [13]