Group 1: Report General Information - The report is a fixed - income weekly report dated November 16, 2025, focusing on the bond market and related data [1] Group 2: Report Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information is provided in the report Group 3: Report Core Views - The 10 - year Treasury bond active coupon yield is expected to remain in the range of 1.75% - 1.85% until the end of the year. There may be a better layout opportunity in the first quarter of next year when betting on interest rate cuts. A potential fund redemption fee new rule in early December could lead to a pulse - like rise in interest rates, presenting a good entry opportunity [13] - The US 12 - month interest rate cut probability has decreased, and US Treasury yields have collectively risen. The NFIB small - business optimism index in October was lower than expected, and the number of initial jobless claims in the week of November 8 decreased [15][20][21] Group 4: Summary by Directory 4.1 One - Week Views - **Domestic Bond Market**: From November 10 - 14, 2025, the 10 - year Treasury bond active coupon yield decreased by 0.1bp from 1.8060% to 1.8050%. The bond market was in a narrow - range fluctuation. Two factors restricted the interest rate from breaking through the range: market expectations of the weakening fundamentals and the higher probability of interest rate cuts in the first quarter of next year [9][13] - **US Bond Market**: The NFIB small - business optimism index in October was 98.2%, lower than the expected 98.3%. The number of initial jobless claims in the week of November 8 decreased from 228,000 to about 225,000. The probability of a December interest rate cut decreased, and US Treasury yields rose. The 10 - year US Treasury yield rose 4bp to 4.12%, and the 2 - year yield rose 2bp to 3.59% [15][20][21] 4.2 Domestic and Overseas Data Aggregation 4.2.1 Liquidity Tracking - Open - market operations from November 10 - 14, 2025, had a net injection of 781 billion yuan. Interest rate bonds' total issuance, total repayment, and net financing showed certain changes compared to the previous week [27] 4.2.2 Domestic and Overseas Macroeconomic Data Tracking - Commodity prices such as steel and LME non - ferrous metals had mixed rises and falls. The total floor area of commercial housing transactions showed a downward trend [50][51] 4.3 Local Bond One - Week Review 4.3.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - From November 10 - 14, 2025, 73 local bonds were issued, with a total issuance amount of 285.066 billion yuan, a net financing of 242.792 billion yuan. The top five provinces in terms of issuance amount were Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Liaoning, Jilin, and Beijing [76][78] 4.3.2 Secondary Market Overview - The local bond stock was 54.01 trillion yuan, with a trading volume of 31.0134 billion yuan and a turnover rate of 0.57%. The top three provinces with active trading were Hubei, Guangdong, and Shandong [90] 4.3.3 This Month's Local Bond Issuance Plan - Some provinces and regions have planned local bond issuances from November 17 - 21, 2025 [98] 4.4 Credit Bond Market One - Week Review 4.4.1 Primary Market Issuance Overview - A total of 311 credit bonds were issued, with a total issuance of 268.14 billion yuan, a total repayment of 236.697 billion yuan, and a net financing of 31.443 billion yuan, a decrease of 59.068 billion yuan compared to the previous week [94] 4.4.2 Issuance Interest Rates - The short - term financing bill's latest issuance interest rate was 1.7115%, up 7.53bp; the medium - term note was 2.1127%, down 1.53bp; the corporate bond was not provided; the corporate bond was 2.2449%, up 2.72bp [106] 4.4.3 Secondary Market Transaction Overview - The total credit bond trading volume was 538.76 billion yuan, with different trading volumes for different ratings and bond types [107] 4.4.4 Maturity Yields - The maturity yields of national development bonds generally decreased, while those of credit bonds such as short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds showed different trends [108][109][111] 4.4.5 Credit Spreads - The credit spreads of short - term financing bills and medium - term notes showed a differentiated trend, while those of corporate bonds and urban investment bonds generally widened [115][118][120] 4.4.6 Rating Spreads - The rating spreads of short - term financing bills, medium - term notes, corporate bonds, and urban investment bonds generally narrowed [124][127][131] 4.4.7 Trading Activity - The top five most actively traded bonds for each bond type were listed, and the industrial industry had the largest weekly bond trading volume [136][137] 4.4.8 Subject Rating Changes - There were no bonds with upgraded ratings or outlooks, and no bonds with downgraded ratings or outlooks this week [138][139]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the bond futures market has shown a slight upward trend after a period of weak fluctuations, driven primarily by institutional behavior and sentiment rather than fundamental economic factors [1][2][3] - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) announced a net purchase of 20 billion yuan in government bonds on November 4, which has positively impacted market expectations and supported the bond market [2] - Economic indicators show a mild recovery, with October CPI rising by 0.2% month-on-month and year-on-year, while PPI has turned positive for the first time this year, indicating a gradual price recovery [2][3] Group 2 - Export data for October shows signs of weakness, with a clear trend of marginal slowdown expected in November and December, necessitating strong policy support for domestic demand [3] - The overall economic growth pressure is manageable, with a GDP growth rate of 5.2% for the first three quarters, leading to expectations of continued policy implementation without the necessity for interest rate cuts [3] - The bond market is expected to maintain a volatile trend due to a combination of reasonable liquidity support and the influence of a strong equity market, which may constrain bond market performance [2][3]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing significant volatility, with a notable divergence between interest rate bonds and credit bonds, driven by recent central bank actions and market sentiment [3][5][10]. Group 1: Market Reactions - A pure bond fund heavily invested in 30-year government bonds is projected to face a loss of 53-81 basis points, a stark contrast to typical daily fluctuations [1]. - The 10-year government bond yield saw a slight recovery of 1 basis point after a drop, but overall, it has decreased by 3 basis points over two days, raising questions about the market's optimistic sentiment despite some pullback [3][5]. - The central bank's announcement on October 27 to restart government bond trading has altered market dynamics significantly, likened to turning on a water faucet for a thirsty person [3][7]. Group 2: Institutional Divergence - There is a clear divide in institutional strategies, with fund companies favoring long-duration interest rate bonds while banks and insurance firms focus on credit bonds for yield [9][15]. - The bond market has seen a substantial increase in trading volume, with both interest rate and credit bonds experiencing a rise in transaction numbers, indicating a flow of capital into the bond market [9][17]. Group 3: Central Bank Operations - The central bank's dual approach of restarting government bond trading and conducting a 900 billion yuan MLF operation is reminiscent of quantitative easing strategies used by foreign central banks [7][10]. - Market participants are closely monitoring the central bank's actions, with a strong expectation of continued monetary easing reflected in the performance of long-duration interest rate bonds [10][15]. Group 4: Market Sentiment and Liquidity - The bond market's volatility has decreased post-lunch, transitioning from excitement to a more rational outlook, with discussions around potential pricing distortions due to ongoing central bank purchases [12][15]. - There is a noticeable liquidity stratification in the bond market, where large institutions can access funds easily, while smaller non-bank entities face higher financing costs, creating a structural imbalance [15].

Summary of Conference Call on Bond Market Outlook Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the bond market, specifically the performance and outlook for the fourth quarter of 2025. Key Points and Arguments Bond Market Performance - The bond market experienced a prolonged adjustment in Q3, with a minor decline in yields, contrasting with the rapid adjustments seen at the beginning of the year [1][3] - It is anticipated that the bond market will perform better in Q4 compared to Q3, with the 10-year government bond yield expected to reach 1.7% initially, and potentially drop to 1.65% if it breaks through [1][4] Economic Indicators - China's economy showed a quarter-on-quarter growth of over 1% and a year-on-year growth exceeding 5% in the first three quarters, indicating that the economy has not significantly weakened [1][5] - A low interest rate environment is aligned with the current economic fundamentals, but further weakening of the fundamentals is necessary for lower interest rates [1][5] Impact of U.S.-China Trade Tensions - Ongoing uncertainties regarding U.S.-China trade tensions could affect the capital and bond markets, necessitating caution in investment strategies [1][6] - The market currently expects a tough stance from the Trump administration, but there is significant uncertainty regarding future trade policies [1][7] Market Dynamics - Trade tensions influence the bond market through equity market fluctuations and monetary easing [1][8] - The correlation between the equity and bond markets has weakened as the stock market rises above 3,900 points, indicating that further equity gains may have limited negative impacts on the bond market [1][8] Fund Sales and Redemption Fees - The most significant impact from increased fund sales and redemption fees has already passed, with redemption fees fully accounted for in fund assets, thus not significantly affecting overall market points [1][9] - However, certain bond types, such as long credit bonds, may still face some pressure [1][9] Future Outlook - The expected recovery range for Q4 is between 1.65% and 1.7%, with no significant risks or changes in odds currently visible [1][10] - A detailed outlook for 2026 will be provided in the annual strategy report [2][10]

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing a weak and volatile trend, with various factors influencing its performance, including macroeconomic data and policy changes [2][3][4]. Group 1: Market Trends - Since July, the equity market has been rising, leading to a correction in the bond market, with the yield spread between 30-year and 10-year government bonds reaching above the 75th percentile for 2023, indicating improved cost-effectiveness for pure bond assets [1][3]. - As of September 30, the interbank bond market showed mixed yield movements, with the 10-year yield around 1.86%, reflecting a general upward trend in bond yields since September [2]. - The bond market is under pressure due to factors such as unexpected developments in US-China negotiations and increased redemption pressures from bond funds [2]. Group 2: Positive Factors - Despite the seasonal weakness in September, there are positive indicators, including weak macro data and a shift in the central bank's reverse repurchase auction method, suggesting a supportive monetary policy stance [3]. - The reduction in new bond supply for October is expected to positively impact the bond market, with government bond net financing projected to decrease significantly compared to previous months [4]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - In the current environment of market volatility, maintaining an open mindset is recommended, as fundamental support remains strong [6]. - Analysts suggest focusing on short-term and cross-product arbitrage opportunities, as well as identifying underpriced bonds with buying support [6]. - The bond market is believed to be in a bottoming phase, with potential for improved cost-effectiveness, particularly as the fourth quarter approaches [6].

◼ 7 月基本面数据陆续公布，为何债市显现出"脱敏"性质？ ◼ A：本周（2025.8.11-2025.8.15），10 年期国债活跃券收益率从上周五的 1.691%上行 5.4bp 至 1.745%。 周度复盘：周一（8.11），早盘受周末公布的 7 月物价数据低于预期影 响，利率有所下行。随后股市和碳酸锂商品期货大涨，利率转为上行， 全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 2.65bp。周二（8.12），早盘受中美 正式延长 90 天的关税暂停期消息影响，利率出现上行，随后股市出现 短暂下行，股债跷跷板效应下利率小幅下行。临近尾盘财政部公布贴息 政策，意在刺激消费，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率上行 1bp。周三 （8.13），上证指数突破去年 10 月 8 日高点，但受午后买断式逆回购询 价降息消息影响，债市仍然维持一定韧性。尾盘 7 月金融数据公布，其 中 7 月信贷新增值为-500 亿元，同比少增 3100 亿元，结构上仅有票据 融资提供冲量作用。虽然季初为传统的信贷小月，但公布的数据仍显著 低于预期，但债市对于该信息显示出"脱敏"的特点，利率并未大幅下 行，全天 10 年期国债活跃券收益率下行 0 ...

Group 1 - The bond market has experienced a significant adjustment since July, with the 10-year government bond yield rising from 1.64% to over 1.7%, and the 30-year bond yield fluctuating above 1.9% [1] - Economic resilience in China is a key factor supporting the bond market adjustment, with indicators showing strong production, rising consumption, stable exports, and a gradual recovery in loans [1][2] - The "anti-involution" policy expectations have also influenced the bond market, with rising prices in commodities like polysilicon and coking coal, driven by government initiatives to stabilize growth [2] Group 2 - Short-term outlook for the bond market is bearish, with expectations of continued pressure due to economic resilience and rising risk appetite [3][4] - Long-term support factors for the bond market include strong monetary policy support and the potential for interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, which may lead to a slight decrease in government bond yields [3][4] - The "anti-involution" policy aims to address supply-demand imbalances, suggesting that monetary policy will remain accommodative to support economic adjustments, providing some support for the bond market [4]

Group 1 - The recent increase in risk appetite has led to a strong stock market, which has put pressure on the bond market, raising questions about the sustainability of the current stock-bond switch and whether the "bond bull" trend has ended [1] - Since mid-July, the A-share market has shown significant strength, with the Shanghai Composite Index breaking through key levels of 3500 and 3600 points, and trading volume reaching 1.93 trillion yuan on July 22, the highest since March 7 [1] - Despite the stock market's performance, the bond market has not experienced panic selling, with the yield on 10-year government bonds only rising by 5.45 basis points in July, indicating a cautious market outlook on growth and inflation factors [1] Group 2 - The strong performance of the A-share market this year has been primarily driven by bank stocks and small-cap stocks, while cyclical sectors such as steel, coal, real estate, and consumer goods have lagged behind [2] - The "anti-involution" policy signals and the development of hydropower projects have boosted market expectations for economic fundamentals, but the sustainability of cyclical stock and commodity price increases remains uncertain due to challenges in capacity reduction policies and weak demand [2] - The economic fundamentals show a mixed picture, with external uncertainties and a need for stronger domestic demand, while monetary policy remains accommodative [3] Group 3 - Current price levels are low, with CPI and core CPI remaining subdued, and PPI showing an expanding year-on-year decline, which affects corporate revenue and consumer confidence [3] - The government is actively increasing leverage, but the willingness of the real economy to expand credit remains insufficient, leading to weak demand for credit from enterprises and households [3] - Although local government bond issuance has accelerated, it mainly addresses refinancing of hidden debts, with new bond issuance lagging behind historical averages, potentially delaying economic support [3] Group 4 - Overall, the market environment for the "bond bull" has not fundamentally changed, but short-term fluctuations in the bond market may increase due to low long-term interest rates and heightened attractiveness of the stock market [4]

Core Insights - The interbank major bond yields continue to rise, with the 10-year government bond active yield increasing by 5 basis points and the 30-year government bond active yield rising by 6.4 basis points [1] Summary by Category Government Bonds - The 10-year government bond yield has increased by 5 basis points [1] - The 30-year government bond yield has increased by 6.4 basis points [1] Yield Data - The yield data for various maturities shows a consistent upward trend across different types of government bonds, indicating a tightening in the bond market [2]

Group 1 - The interbank major interest rate bond yields have risen sharply, with the 10-year government bond active yield increasing by 3.4 basis points and the 30-year government bond active yield rising by 5.15 basis points [1] - The current yields for various government bonds are as follows: 3Y at 1.4050, 5Y at 1.4200, 10Y at 1.4400, 30Y at 1.9275, indicating a general upward trend in yields across different maturities [2]