近日，未可知人工智能研究院院长杜雨博士走进杭州运河万科中心，以 《AI抢饭碗时代，如何打造"AI免疫"的职业生涯？》 为题，带来了一场干 货与温度并存的沙龙分享，现场座无虚席。以下为三大核心观点速记，供未能到场的朋友一键收藏。 "这不是假设，而是已发生的现实。"杜雨用一张"剪刀差"曲线开场：过去五年，大模型推理成本下降了99%，而一线城市白领平均时薪却上涨了近 20%。"当两条曲线交汇，第一批被替代的岗位就会出现。我们必须正视，而不是掩耳盗铃。" 剪刀差已至： AI成本加速下降 VS 人力成本持续上涨 "不要和AI比算力，要和它比'漏洞'—— 人类最大的漏洞是情感，也是最大的护城河 。" 职场可以加速，生活必须减速 " AI把职场按下了快进键，但不代表我们要把这份焦虑带进生活。 "杜雨展示了自己的"双时钟"手机界面：工作区用番茄钟25分钟冲刺，生活区却 刻意关闭所有红点提醒。" 外面越是兵荒马乱，内心越要平静如水。 每天留30分钟给发呆、给散步、给读书，这才是对抗算法霸权的最小抵抗单 元。" — END — 标准答案让位机器， 模糊地带才是人的主场 "凡是有标准答案的地方，机器终将胜出；只有模糊地带，人类才能 ...

Core Insights - The emergence of artificial intelligence (AI), particularly generative AI, has reignited concerns about job displacement, although the current impact on the overall job market is still limited [1][2] - High-frequency job losses and hiring slowdowns are observed in sectors most sensitive to AI, such as marketing, customer service, graphic design, search engines, and software development [1] - Goldman Sachs predicts that while AI will lead to job losses in certain areas, it will also create new job opportunities over the next decade, preventing large-scale unemployment [1][6] Employment Impact - Currently, only 9.3% of companies have integrated generative AI into their production processes, indicating low adoption rates [2] - Estimates suggest that 6%-7% of jobs could be replaced by AI in the coming years, with potential replacement rates varying between 3% and 14% under different scenarios [2] - Short-term unemployment may rise by 0.3 percentage points for every 1% increase in productivity due to AI, but this effect is expected to dissipate within two years [2] Job Characteristics at Risk - Jobs that are highly repetitive, structured, and have low error costs are more susceptible to AI automation [3][5] - Positions that involve high communication and cognitive skills, such as doctors and teachers, are considered safer from AI replacement [5] - The potential for automation is perceived to be greater in back-office roles compared to front-line positions [3] Historical Context and Future Outlook - Historical trends indicate that while technology may eliminate certain jobs, it simultaneously creates new ones, leading to overall job growth [6] - The U.S. labor market has evolved significantly, with 60% of current jobs not existing in 1940, highlighting the transformative nature of technological advancements [6] - Economic downturns during the transition to AI could accelerate job losses, but if AI generates new profit opportunities, it may facilitate quicker re-employment [9]