Group 1 - The domestic commodity futures market on February 13 saw more declines than increases, with the main contract for the shipping index (European line) rising over 3% [1] - The main contracts for caustic soda, lithium carbonate, eggs, and soybean meal increased by over 2%, while the main contracts for tin, silver, and crude oil saw declines exceeding 4% [1] - The China Securities Commodity Futures Price Index closed at 1642.81 points, down 36.48 points or 2.17% from the previous trading day [1] Group 2 - Caustic soda continued its rebound, with the main contract closing up 2.91%, driven by supply tightness and sellers' reluctance to sell [2] - Concerns over transportation restrictions during the holiday boosted pre-holiday purchasing of caustic soda, while the decline in liquid chlorine prices supported the market [2] - The egg main contract rose 2.20%, reaching a two-month high, driven by expectations of capacity reduction in the egg production industry [3] Group 3 - The metal market generally declined, with tin and silver experiencing the largest drops of 7.05% and 5.52% respectively, influenced by weak market sentiment and profit-taking by traders [4] - The fluctuations in basic metals were primarily driven by market emotions, with concerns over AI and macroeconomic data impacting market confidence [4] - Geopolitical risk easing expectations have also contributed to the weakening support for precious metals in the short term [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - For gold, due to the resurgence of concerns about AI in the US stock market and the poor US retail data, the gold price oscillated and declined. However, the upward trend of the gold price remains unchanged, and the premium of Shanghai gold has expanded to about 2.5 yuan/gram. With concentrated domestic and foreign holidays, volatility has decreased, and today's focus is on non - farm payroll data [4]. - For silver, the resurgence of concerns about AI in the US stock market and the poor US retail data led to a decline in risk preference and a fall in the silver price. The premium of Shanghai silver has converged to 1,280 yuan/gram, and domestic sentiment has cooled rapidly. The volatility of the silver price has extremely converged, but the risk remains huge, so cautious operation is needed [5]. Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - **Gold**: The US stock market's concerns about AI reignited, and the US retail data was poor, causing the gold price to oscillate and decline. The three major US stock indexes closed with mixed results, as did the three major European stock indexes. US bond yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year US bond yield dropping 5.94 basis points to 4.143%. The US dollar index rose 0.01% to 96.86, and the offshore RMB appreciated slightly against the US dollar to 6.9143. COMEX gold futures fell 0.62% to $5,047.90 per ounce [4]. - **Silver**: Similar to gold, the resurgence of concerns about AI in the US stock market and the poor US retail data led to an oscillating decline in the silver price. COMEX silver futures fell 2.01% to $80.58 per ounce [5]. 2. Daily Hints - **Gold**: The basis is - 3.22, with the spot at a discount to the futures, indicating a neutral situation. The inventory of gold futures increased by 1,020 kilograms to 105,072 kilograms, which is bearish. The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish. The main positions are net long, and the long positions of the main force increased, which is bullish [4]. - **Silver**: The basis is - 1,103, with the spot at a discount to the futures, which is bearish. The inventory of Shanghai silver futures increased by 4,822 kilograms to 323,368 kilograms, which is bullish. The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bearish. The main positions are net long, and the long positions of the main force increased, which is bullish [5]. 3. Today's Focus - **Events**: Japan is on holiday all day. At 06:00 the next day, officials of the Reserve Bank of Australia will attend a hearing of the Australian Senate. Other important events include China's January CPI and PPI at 09:30, the US January non - farm payroll report at 21:30, etc. [16][17] 4. Fundamental Data - **Gold**: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing. The risk preference is high, and it is difficult for the gold price to fall. The overall strength of metals has also promoted the gold price, but it also increases the downside risk [9]. - **Silver**: The mid - term elections are approaching, with continuous turmoil and ongoing easing. There is still macro - level support. The bullish and investment sentiment is high. Although the sentiment of the silver price has cooled slightly under regulatory pressure, it has not declined [13]. 5. Position Data - **Gold**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 3,296 to 152,987, with an increase of 2.20%. The short positions decreased by 317 to 32,321, with a decrease of 0.97%. The net positions increased by 3,613 to 120,666, with an increase of 3.09% [33]. - **Silver**: The long positions of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 4,834 to 296,423, with a decrease of 1.60%. The short positions increased by 260 to 203,285, with an increase of 0.13%. The net positions decreased by 5,094 to 93,138, with a decrease of 5.19% [35].