Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Short - term High - level Consolidation, Prudent Operation Before the Festival [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bullish sentiment has weakened, and the market is volatile due to capital and sentiment. However, the main bullish logic remains unchanged, and the long - term upward trend continues. Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to control positions and operate prudently [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's nomination of Warsh as the Fed Chairman led the market to pre - trade Warsh's hawkish policies. The sell - off in US software stocks spread to the entire technology sector, and multiple factors intensified the decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals [6] - **Copper Ore**: Trump plans to invest $12 billion in key mineral reserves. China aims to improve the copper resource reserve system. The strike at Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile ended, and normal production is expected to resume [6] - **Scrap Copper**: Domestic policies related to recycled copper have tightened, and some supply enterprises will be on holiday during the Spring Festival, so the supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is expected to decline [6] - **Refined Copper**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. SMM expects a decline in February. As of February 5, domestic mainstream copper inventories increased, while bonded - area inventories decreased. LME inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [6] - **Consumption**: After the copper price correction, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, but it is expected to weaken next week as the Spring Festival approaches [6] - **Spread and Ratio**: LME inventories are continuously accumulating, the domestic import window is periodically opened, and the spread and premium are expected to remain in a discount state [6] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Price Trends - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai Copper Main Contract and LME 3 - Month Copper, and lists important events affecting copper prices such as processing fee drops, trade investigations, and production plan adjustments from 2025 - 2026 [8][9] 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - **Copper Concentrate Market**: On February 6, the SMM imported copper concentrate index decreased. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The production of major copper - producing countries such as Peru and Chile showed different trends [19][25][28] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of this Friday, the refined - scrap spread is 3,127 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased slightly. In 2025, the supply of domestic scrap copper increased, and the import of scrap copper also showed an upward trend [34][39] - **Blister Copper Market**: In October 2025, blister copper production increased year - on - year. The import of anode copper decreased in 2025. The average processing fee for southern blister copper increased this week [41][44] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly. SMM expects a decline in February. In 2025, the import of refined copper decreased, and the export increased [46][49] - **Copper Products Operating Rate**: The overall copper products operating rate showed a mixed trend. Some industries' operating rates increased due to pre - holiday stocking and price corrections, while others are expected to decline in February [51][60][66] - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Air - conditioning Consumption**: In December 2025, China's household air - conditioning market did not meet expectations. The production and sales of air - conditioners decreased year - on - year. The production schedule for 2026 shows different trends in domestic and export sales [71] - **Automobile Consumption**: In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased. It is predicted that the total automobile sales in 2026 will increase slightly, and new - energy vehicle sales are expected to grow by 15.2% [75] - **Grid Investment**: In 2025, China's grid investment increased year - on - year, while the power source project investment decreased. The State Grid's fixed - asset investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan [78] - **Real Estate Market**: In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area and housing completion area decreased year - on - year [83] - **Overseas Data**: The report shows the data of US new housing sales, new private residential starts, automobile sales, and European passenger car registrations [86] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: In 2025, China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts different growth trends for future photovoltaic installations [89] - **Global New - energy Vehicle Sales**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased. In December, global new - energy vehicle sales increased year - on - year, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased slightly [91][95] 3.4 Industry News and Macroeconomic Data - Trump nominated Warsh as the Fed Chairman, and the US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill. Southern Copper Corp. expects a decline in copper production in the next two years. The US ISM manufacturing PMI index rose significantly in January, and there are also other important industry and macro news [96]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes the market conditions of various futures products, including financial derivatives, agricultural products, black metals, non - ferrous metals, shipping, and energy chemicals. It provides investment suggestions based on the fundamentals, supply - demand relationships, and market sentiment of each product. For example, in the financial derivatives section, it is expected that stock index futures will continue to rise, while bond futures may experience short - term adjustments; in the agricultural products section, different products have different supply - demand situations and price trends, such as protein meal having supply pressure and sugar having a slight increase in production. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Financial Derivatives - **Stock Index Futures**: The market fluctuated on Monday, with the overall index showing a trend of rising in the morning and falling in the afternoon. Although there was a short - term decline, it is expected that there is still upward momentum. Suggested trading strategies include going long on dips, conducting index - futures and ETF arbitrage when the discount widens, and using bull spreads for options [17][19][20]. - **Bond Futures**: On Monday, bond futures closed down across the board. Due to factors such as the seasonal tightening of the capital market and the adjustment of market expectations, it is recommended that investors partially stop losses on short positions in TS and TF contracts [21][22]. Agricultural Products - **Protein Meal**: The international soybean market is expected to fluctuate. The domestic soybean meal market has supply pressure, and the processing profit is still significantly in the red. It is recommended to lay out a small number of short positions, narrow the MRM spread, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [24][25][26]. - **Sugar**: The Brazilian sugar harvest is coming to an end, and the supply pressure is gradually alleviating. The northern hemisphere is in the production - increasing cycle. The domestic sugar price is at a low level, and the cost provides certain support. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and sell put options [27][29][30]. - **Oilseeds and Oils**: The domestic soybean oil inventory has reached an inflection point and is gradually reducing. Rapeseed oil is affected by policies. The overall oil market has rebounded, but the upward space may be limited. It is recommended to buy palm oil on dips and wait and see for arbitrage and options [31][32][33]. - **Corn/Corn Starch**: The US corn market is weak, and the domestic corn market has different trends in different regions. The 03 corn contract is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to go long on dips in the 03 corn contract, narrow the spread between 03 corn and starch, and wait and see for options [34][36][37]. - **Pigs**: The pig price is showing a strong trend, but the overall supply pressure still exists. It is recommended to short at high points, wait and see for arbitrage, and use the strategy of selling wide - straddle options [38][39][40]. - **Peanuts**: The peanut spot price is stable, and the futures price is in a narrow - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see for the 05 peanut contract at the bottom, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell the pk603 - C - 8200 option [40][41][42]. - **Eggs**: The short - term near - month contract is expected to be weak in shock, and it is recommended to go long on the far - month contract on dips. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [43][45][46]. - **Apples**: The apple production has decreased this year, and the effective inventory is expected to be low. The market is in a general state of trading, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to conduct long - short arbitrage between January and October contracts and wait and see for options [48][49][50]. - **Cotton - Cotton Yarn**: The new cotton sales are good, and the cotton price is expected to be strong in shock. The US cotton may fluctuate in a range, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be strong in shock with a short - term callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [52][53][55]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The raw material replenishment has started, and the steel price is in a range - bound shock. It is recommended to maintain a shock strategy, short the coil - coal ratio at high points, and continue to hold the short position of the coil - screw spread. It is recommended to wait and see for options [58][59][60]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: The driving force is not obvious, and the market is in a shock state. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips with a light position. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [60][61][62]. - **Iron Ore**: The market expectations are fluctuating, and the ore price is in a shock state. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral trading and arbitrage, and wait and see for options [64][65][66]. - **Ferroalloys**: The commodity sentiment has declined, and the market is in a short - term shock. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral trading and arbitrage, and sell out - of - the - money straddle option combinations [68][69][70]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Gold and Silver**: The market has cooled down, and the prices have significantly corrected. It is recommended to stop profits on previous long positions and wait and see until after the New Year's Day holiday [71][72][73]. - **Platinum and Palladium**: The bullish sentiment of funds has subsided, and the premium has declined. It is recommended to go long on dips based on the MA5 daily line, conduct long - platinum and short - palladium arbitrage, and wait and see for options [74][75][76]. - **Copper**: The profit - taking funds have left the market, and the price has been short - term affected. It is recommended to go long on dips in the long term and wait and see for arbitrage and options [79][80][81]. - **Alumina**: After the profit of warehouse receipt registration converges, the price is mainly in a shock state. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [81][83][84]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum**: The outflow of funds in the sector has led to a price correction. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [85][86][88]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: It has followed the sector's correction. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [89][90][91]. - **Zinc**: It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the macro and capital aspects. It is recommended to trade in a wide - range shock, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [91][92][93]. - **Lead**: It is necessary to pay attention to the impact of the capital aspect. It is recommended to stop profits on part of the long positions, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [95][96][100]. - **Nickel**: The non - ferrous metals market has corrected. It is recommended to reduce positions before the holiday to avoid risks. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [100][101][102]. - **Stainless Steel**: It has followed the nickel price and is relatively strong. It is recommended to pay attention to the upward sustainability of the nickel price and wait and see for arbitrage [103][104][105]. - **Industrial Silicon**: It may rebound in the short term and be shorted on rallies in the medium term. It is recommended to short on rallies [105][106][107]. - **Polysilicon**: The long - term fundamentals are favorable, but the short - term trading volume has shrunk. It is recommended to be cautious. It is recommended to go long on polysilicon and short industrial silicon for arbitrage and sell put options [107][108][110]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is running at a high level, and it is recommended to operate cautiously. It is recommended to wait and see for both arbitrage and options [108][109][111]. - **Tin**: Some long - position funds have taken profits, and the price has significantly declined. It is recommended to wait and see for both unilateral trading and options [112][113][115]. Shipping - **Container Shipping**: There is still a divergence on the high point in January, and it is expected to maintain a shock in the short term. It is recommended to take profits on most of the long positions in the EC2602 contract and hold the remaining light positions. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage [116][117][118]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical conflicts are intensive, and the oil price is in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to trade in a wide - range shock, and the domestic gasoline is neutral, the diesel is weak, and the oil - month spread is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for options [119][120][121]. - **Asphalt**: The raw material risk has increased, and the asphalt performance is strong. It is recommended to trade in a shock - upward trend, and wait and see for both arbitrage and options [121][123][124]. - **Fuel Oil**: The short - term fundamentals of low - sulfur fuel oil are weak. It is recommended to be bearish on the unilateral trading, the low - sulfur cracking spread is weak, and the high - sulfur cracking spread is weak. It is recommended to wait and see for options [125][127][128]. - **Natural Gas**: LNG is in a low - level shock, and HH has rebounded. It is recommended to hold the long position in the HH2602 contract and sell the TTF contracts in the third quarter. It is recommended to wait and see for arbitrage and options [128][129][131]. - **LPG**: It is in a low - level consolidation. It is recommended to short the far - month contracts on rallies, conduct 03 - 04 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [132][133][134]. - **PX & PTA**: The polyester sales and cost have weakened, and the prices of PX and TA have fallen from high levels. It is recommended to trade in a short - term high - level shock, conduct positive arbitrage between the 3 - month and 5 - month contracts, and wait and see for options [135][136][139]. - **BZ & EB**: The inventory accumulation pressure of pure benzene has slowed down, and the supply - demand contradiction of styrene is not significant. It is recommended to trade in a shock - upward trend, short pure benzene and long styrene for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [137][140][141]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory continues to rise. It is recommended to trade in a short - term wide - range shock and a medium - term weak shock, and sell call options [142][143][145]. - **Short - Fiber**: The processing fee is under pressure. It is recommended to trade in a shock - consolidation state, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [146][147][149]. - **Bottle Chips**: The supply - demand situation is relatively loose. It is recommended to trade in a shock - consolidation state, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [149][150][151]. - **Propylene**: The supply pressure has increased, and the profits of downstream products are differentiated. It is recommended to trade in a wide - range shock, wait and see for arbitrage, and sell straddle options [151][152][154]. - **Plastic PP**: The total import and export volume of polyethylene and polypropylene has increased. It is recommended to hold the long position in the L2605 contract, wait and see for the PP2605 contract, conduct long - L2605 and short - PP2605 arbitrage, and sell the PP2605 put option [155][156][158]. - **PVC**: The rebound is weak. It is recommended to continue the rebound, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [158][159][160]. - **Methanol**: It is in a strong - shock state. It is recommended to go long on the 05 contract at low prices and not chase the rise [160][161][162]. - **Urea**: It is in a weak - shock state. It is recommended to short in the short term and not chase the short [163][164][165]. - **Pulp**: The pulp price has fallen from a high level. It is recommended to hold the short position, wait and see for arbitrage, and wait and see for options [166][167][169]. - **Logs**: The spot market is strengthening. It is recommended to hold the previous long position, pay attention to the 3 - 5 reverse arbitrage, and wait and see for options [169][170][171]. - **Offset Printing Paper**: The high inventory suppresses the rebound height of the paper price. It is recommended to wait and see, conduct interval trading, and sell the OP2602 - C - 4200 option [172][173][174]. - **Natural Rubber and No. 20 Rubber**: The inventory accumulation rate in the bonded area continues to slow down. It is recommended to wait and see for the RU05 contract, short the NR03 contract on rallies, conduct long - RU2605 and short - NR2605 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [174][175][178]. - **Butadiene Rubber**: There is marginal production reduction. It is recommended to wait and see for the BR02 contract, short the BR03 contract with a small amount, conduct long - BR2603 and short - NR2603 arbitrage, and wait and see for options [179][180][181].

Group 1 - The US tech sector experienced its largest decline in nearly six months, prompting investors to seek clues about the US economic situation and any news regarding the government shutdown [1] - The probability of the US government shutdown remaining unresolved next week is over 60%, according to market predictions [1] - During the shutdown, official economic data will be unavailable, leading the market to rely on questionable private data [3] Group 2 - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming US Treasury bond auctions, including $58 billion in three-year notes on Monday, $42 billion in ten-year notes on Wednesday, and $25 billion in thirty-year notes on Thursday [3] - The absence of economic data will lead to increased scrutiny of upcoming earnings reports, particularly for stocks related to AI hype, such as CoreWeave, Cisco, Applied Materials, and Infineon [3] - The third-quarter earnings season for Chinese concept stocks will kick off with reports from Tencent and JD.com [4] Group 3 - A significant event for global investors is the upcoming Thanksgiving letter to shareholders from Warren Buffett, which may be one of his last as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway [6] - The letter is expected to touch on topics related to charity and possibly include a farewell message [6][8] - Next week will also feature important economic events, including the Bank of Japan's monetary policy meeting summary and the Eurozone's economic sentiment index [9]

Group 1 - The US tech sector experienced its largest decline in nearly six months, prompting investors to seek clues about the US economic situation and any news regarding the government shutdown [1] - As of the report, the probability of the government shutdown remaining unresolved next week exceeds 60%, according to market predictions [1] - During the shutdown, official economic data will be unavailable, leaving the market reliant on questionable private data [4] Group 2 - Investors should closely monitor the upcoming US Treasury bond auctions, which include $58 billion in three-year notes on Monday, $42 billion in ten-year notes on Wednesday, and $25 billion in thirty-year notes on Thursday [4] - The stock market will remain open during the Veterans Day holiday on Tuesday, while the bond market will be closed [4] - The earnings reports from companies related to AI hype, such as CoreWeave, Cisco, Applied Materials, and Infineon, will be scrutinized as they precede Nvidia's earnings report [4] Group 3 - The upcoming week will also feature significant earnings reports from Chinese companies, including Tencent and JD.com, marking the start of the third-quarter earnings season for Chinese stocks [4] - A notable event for global investors is Warren Buffett's Thanksgiving letter to shareholders, which may be one of his last as CEO of Berkshire Hathaway [5][6] - The letter is expected to address topics such as philanthropy and other matters of interest to shareholders, potentially signaling a farewell message from Buffett [6]