Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation transportation industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The aviation sector is expected to see a bottoming out of its economic cycle, with potential improvements in demand and pricing as the supply growth remains low [5][8] - Despite a decline in ticket prices during the peak summer season, there are signs of recovery in business travel demand, which may lead to better pricing in the near future [5][8] Summary by Sections Investment Recommendations - China National Aviation (601111 CH): Buy, Target Price: 9.25 CNY [4] - China Eastern Airlines (600115 CH): Buy, Target Price: 4.80 CNY [4] - China Southern Airlines (600029 CH): Buy, Target Price: 7.35 CNY [4] - Spring Airlines (601021 CH): Buy, Target Price: 67.80 CNY [4] - 吉祥航空 (603885 CH): Buy, Target Price: 16.25 CNY [4] - 华夏航空 (002928 CH): Buy, Target Price: 13.65 CNY [4] - Cathay Pacific (293 HK): Buy, Target Price: 13.20 HKD [4] Industry Performance - In August, the three major airlines and Spring Airlines saw a 5.0% increase in available seat kilometers (ASK) and a 5.8% increase in revenue passenger kilometers (RPK), leading to an overall passenger load factor increase of 0.6 percentage points to 86.8% [5][11] - Domestic ticket prices showed a year-on-year decline of 6.5% during the peak summer season, but there was a 2.5% increase in ticket prices in early September [5][8] Company-Specific Insights - China National Aviation reported a revenue of 80.757 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.6% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.806 billion CNY, narrowing by 35.1% [23] - China Eastern Airlines achieved a revenue of 66.822 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.1% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.592 billion CNY, narrowing by 42.5% [23] - China Southern Airlines reported a revenue of 86.291 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.8% increase year-on-year, with a net loss of 1.533 billion CNY, which is a 24.8% increase in loss year-on-year [24] - Spring Airlines reported a revenue of 10.304 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 4.3% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 1.169 billion CNY, a 14.1% decrease year-on-year [24] - 吉祥航空 reported a revenue of 11.067 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 1.0% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.505 billion CNY, a 3.3% increase year-on-year [24] - 华夏航空 reported a revenue of 3.610 billion CNY in the first half of 2025, a 12.4% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 0.251 billion CNY, an increase of 859.0% year-on-year [24] - Cathay Pacific reported a revenue of 54.309 billion HKD in the first half of 2025, a 9.5% increase year-on-year, with a net profit of 3.651 billion HKD, a 1.1% increase year-on-year [24]

Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry Overview - The lithium battery industry in China is significantly competitive globally, with key materials accounting for over 70% of global shipments, and power batteries holding a 68.79% global share [1] - In 2024, the revenue of China's lithium battery sector is projected to reach 2.25 trillion yuan, with a CAGR of 21.80% from 2018 to 2024, although net profit is expected to decline sharply to 110.1 billion yuan in 2024 [1] - Major issues in the lithium battery industry include a mismatch between net profit scale and global industry position, overall low profitability, excess capacity due to continuous release of production capacity in segmented fields, and a significant decline in prices of key raw materials [1] Group 2: New Energy Vehicle Industry Overview - Since 2009, China's automotive production and sales have ranked first globally, with 2024 production and sales expected to exceed 30 million units, making China the largest automobile exporter [2] - The new energy vehicle (NEV) sector in China has shown remarkable competitiveness, with sales reaching 12.859 million units in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 36.10%, accounting for 40.92% of total NEV sales [2] - Despite growth in production and sales, the overall profit of the automotive industry remains low, with 2024 profits projected at 462.3 billion yuan, significantly lower than the peak of 688.3 billion yuan in 2017 [2] Group 3: Policy Measures Against "Involution" Competition - The Chinese government has initiated a series of macro policies to address "involution" competition, with the first mention in July 2024 by the Central Political Bureau, followed by further clarifications in subsequent economic meetings and reports [3] - Various government bodies, including the State Council and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, have introduced policies and measures, while industry associations have launched self-regulatory initiatives to combat involution [3] - The comprehensive rectification of involution is expected to enhance the global competitiveness of China's new energy vehicle and lithium battery industries [3]

Economic Overview - The economic climate in China continues to improve, with the manufacturing PMI at 49.4%, non-manufacturing business activity index at 50.3%, and composite PMI output index at 50.5%, all showing an increase from the previous month [1][2] - The overall economic situation is expected to remain stable and improve, with potential for domestic demand to be released in September and the fourth quarter [1][6] Manufacturing Sector - The manufacturing PMI remains below the critical 50% mark, indicating ongoing pressure from insufficient demand on production and operations [1] - The production index, new orders index, and other sub-indices have shown improvements, with the raw material purchase price index at 53.3% and factory price index at 49.1%, both rising for three consecutive months [2] Non-Manufacturing Sector - The non-manufacturing business activity index has stabilized above 50%, with the financial services and capital market service sectors showing strong performance, both indices above 60% [3] - The hospitality and restaurant sectors have also seen significant increases, with the restaurant business activity index rising above 50% [4] Emerging Industries - The information services sector, particularly telecommunications and internet services, is experiencing robust growth, with business activity indices above 55% [5] - The "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative is expected to further enhance the application scenarios and development potential of the information services industry [5] Future Outlook - The composite PMI output index indicates a continued expansion in production activities, with manufacturing expectations improving to 53.7% [6] - External factors such as the easing of extreme weather conditions and ongoing US-China trade negotiations are anticipated to support stable foreign trade [6][7] - The potential for domestic demand to be released is expected to continue, driven by policy support and market self-correction [7]

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) plans to allocate over 700 billion yuan in special bonds for long-term projects in 2024, with nearly 500 billion yuan already arranged for 2025, focusing on major infrastructure projects along the Yangtze River and urban development [1] - The "Two New" policies have accelerated consumer spending, with sales in five major product categories reaching approximately 830 billion yuan by May 5, 2023, and over 300 million applications for vehicle trade-in subsidies [1][2] - The NDRC is working to enhance the business environment, aiming to boost social confidence and market vitality through streamlined administrative services and improved market competition [2] Group 2 - The NDRC has initiated a market access barrier cleanup action to ensure a unified national market, focusing on eliminating unreasonable regulations and practices [2] - A new initiative allows for the replacement of proof of no violations with specialized credit reports, aimed at reducing the burden on businesses [3] - The NDRC is addressing "involution" competition in various industries, emphasizing the need for structural adjustments and fair competition to maintain market order [3][4]

Economic Policy and Measures - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is committed to improving policies for stabilizing employment and expanding domestic demand, responding to external environmental changes in a timely manner [3][4] - A total of 300 billion yuan will be allocated for consumption support, with the fourth batch of 69 billion yuan planned for October [4] - The NDRC aims to ensure effective investment and support local governments in creating development highlights while balancing development and safety [4] Artificial Intelligence Initiatives - The State Council has approved the implementation of the "Artificial Intelligence+" initiative to enhance AI applications across various industries [5][6] - The initiative focuses on promoting large-scale commercial applications of AI, leveraging China's complete industrial system and large market scale [6] - The NDRC plans to optimize the AI innovation ecosystem by increasing policy support and enhancing foundational elements such as computing power, algorithms, and talent [6] Competition Regulation - The Central Economic Commission emphasizes the need to regulate low-price and disorderly competition among enterprises [7] - The NDRC is working on revising the pricing law to clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, including predatory pricing [7] - Efforts will be made to combine effective market mechanisms with proactive government actions to improve market order and encourage quality products [7]

Group 1: Economic Measures - The fourth batch of 69 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement will be allocated in October, completing the annual plan of 300 billion yuan [1] - The "two重" construction project list of 800 billion yuan has been fully allocated, with 735 billion yuan of central budget investment also nearly disbursed [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will promote effective investment and enhance the system to leverage government investment to stimulate social investment [7] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence - There is a strong demand for the application of artificial intelligence, marking a critical window for its implementation [2] - The NDRC plans to advance the large-scale commercialization of artificial intelligence, leveraging China's complete industrial system and large market scale [6] Group 3: Regulatory Reforms - The NDRC is revising the pricing law to address unfair pricing behaviors, including predatory pricing below cost, and will seek public input on the draft [4] - Measures will be taken to address "involution" competition through legal revisions, policy issuance, and industry self-regulation [5] - The NDRC will govern disorderly competition among enterprises and standardize local investment attraction behaviors [9] Group 4: Private Sector Involvement - The NDRC will promote greater participation of private enterprises in national major project construction [10] - There is a commitment to prevent blind following and excessive competition in emerging sectors while encouraging innovation [11]

Core Viewpoint - The civil aviation passenger volume in China continues to rise due to the release of summer travel demand and the dissipation of typhoon impacts, with expectations for improved industry efficiency despite a decline in average ticket prices [1][5][6]. Group 1: Passenger Volume and Flight Operations - From July 21 to 27, 2023, the national civil aviation executed 115,000 passenger flights, averaging 16,400 flights per day, representing a 2% increase from the previous week and a 5% increase year-on-year compared to 2024 [2]. - The weekly passenger volume reached 16.53 million, with an average of 2.36 million passengers per day, reflecting a 3% week-on-week increase and a 5% year-on-year increase compared to 2024 [2]. - As of July 27, 2023, the total number of passenger flights at national airports reached 5.97 million, a 2.5% year-on-year increase, with total passenger throughput at 862.09 million, up 4.8% year-on-year [2]. Group 2: Ticket Pricing and Revenue - The average ticket price for domestic routes from July 21 to 27, 2023, was 956.5 yuan, a 3% decrease week-on-week and an 11% decrease year-on-year compared to 2024 [6]. - The average revenue per seat kilometer for domestic routes was 0.540 yuan, down 2% week-on-week and 12% year-on-year compared to 2024 [6]. - Despite the decline in average ticket prices, there is an expectation for an increase in average ticket prices during the 2025 summer travel season, with a projected average price of 1,079 yuan, a 3.5% increase compared to the 2024 summer season [6][7]. Group 3: Future Outlook - The civil aviation industry anticipates that the growth rate of passenger throughput during the 2025 summer travel season will be 4.9%, with domestic passenger throughput expected to reach 272 million, a 4.2% year-on-year increase [4]. - The number of domestic passenger flights is projected to increase by 1.6% to 1.81 million, while international and regional flights are expected to grow by 11.5% to 147,000 flights [3][4]. - The industry expects that the supply growth will be lower than demand growth, leading to an improvement in the supply-demand relationship and a potential increase in average ticket prices [3][7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The macro - level shows that the State - owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council aims to resist "involution - style" competition and optimize the allocation of state - owned capital. The National Energy Administration will conduct a production check on coal mines in 8 provinces (regions) to ensure stable coal supply [1][4][5]. - Fundamentally, last week's industrial data was average, with a weak balance between supply and demand. The output and apparent demand of rebar increased, and inventory decreased slightly. The output and apparent demand of hot - rolled coils decreased, and inventory increased slightly. The market sentiment dominated the futures price trend, and it is expected that the futures price will maintain a volatile trend [1][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3356 | 209 | 6.64 | 16533372 | 2980480 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - rolled Coil | 3507 | 197 | 5.95 | 5506489 | 1507782 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 802.5 | 17.5 | 2.23 | 2593703 | 562835 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 1259.0 | 333.0 | 35.96 | 15546782 | 834111 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1763.0 | 245.0 | 16.14 | 397069 | 54288 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - Last week, steel futures fluctuated strongly, affected by market sentiment. In the second half of the week, the market showed differentiation, and the sentiment cooled down. In the spot market, the price of Tangshan billet was 3160 (+160) yuan/ton, Shanghai rebar was quoted at 3430 (+180) yuan/ton, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil was 3500 (+160) yuan/ton [4] 3.3 Industry News - The National Energy Administration will check coal production in 8 provinces (regions) to ensure stable coal supply. From January to June this year, 16,500 old urban residential areas were newly started for renovation in China, with 6 regions having a start - up rate of over 80%. Multiple departments are taking measures to combat "involution - style" competition [6][10] 3.4 Related Charts - The content provides 20 charts showing the trends of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures, basis, regional price differences, production, inventory, and other aspects [9]

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The steel and ore prices have risen rapidly recently, driven by macro - expectations and anti - involution expectations. The medium - term trend is expected to be strong, with the rebar main contract likely to break through 3400, and iron ore performing weaker than finished products. There may be adjustments after the short - term rapid rise. The market may have reversed rather than just rebounded. [5][6] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Steel and Ore Market Situation - This week, the steel and ore market was strong, hitting new highs and breaking through the first - half highs [7]. Important Information - From January to June 2025, China's shipbuilding completion volume was 24.13 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.5%; new orders were 44.33 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year decrease of 18.2%; as of the end of June, the order backlog was 234.54 million deadweight tons, a year - on - year increase of 36.7% [12]. - In the first half of 2025, China's crude steel output was 514.83 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3% [12]. - In August 2025, the production plan for household air conditioners was 11.155 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.1%, with domestic sales planned at 6.51 million units (down 5.3% year - on - year) and exports at 4.645 million units (down 9.5% year - on - year) [12]. - Relevant departments are promoting the rectification of involution - style competition and taking measures to regulate the market [12]. - Japan launched an anti - dumping investigation on cold - rolled stainless steel sheets and coils from China [12]. - The second round of coke price increase started on July 22, with a 50 - yuan/ton increase for tamped wet - quenched coke and a 55 - yuan/ton increase for tamped dry - quenched coke [13]. - In the first half of this year, China completed 532.9 billion yuan in water conservancy construction investment, implemented 34,400 water conservancy projects, and started 18,800 new projects [13]. Steel Supply, Inventory and Consumption - This week, the total steel supply was 8.6697 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 12,200 tons (0.1%); the total inventory was 13.365 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 11,600 tons (0.1%); the apparent consumption was 8.6813 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 19,800 tons (0.2%) [14]. - This week, rebar supply was 2.1196 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 29,000 tons (1.4%); total inventory was 5.3864 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 46,200 tons (0.9%); apparent consumption was 2.1658 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 5.0% [17]. - This week, hot - rolled steel supply was 3.1749 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 36,500 tons (1.1%); total inventory was 3.4516 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 22,500 tons (0.7%); apparent consumption was 3.1524 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 85,500 tons (2.6%) [17]. - Rebar inventory contradictions are not prominent. This week, rebar factory inventory decreased, social inventory increased, and total inventory decreased. Hot - rolled steel factory, social, and total inventories all increased, and inventory contradictions were not prominent [18][19]. Iron - related Data - This week, the daily iron - water output was 2.4223 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 2,100 tons, but it remained at a relatively high level [22].

Group 1 - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is focusing on enhancing the collaborative development mechanism between state-owned and private enterprises to boost economic vitality and industrial competitiveness [1][2] - The NDRC aims to address "involution" competition, expand industry chain cooperation, promote technological innovation, and improve corporate governance and international operations [1][2] - The NDRC emphasizes the importance of enterprises as micro-entities that directly feel and respond to macroeconomic changes, highlighting their role in achieving high-quality development [1] Group 2 - Recent meetings have been held to address "involution" competition, with the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology focusing on the photovoltaic industry to combat low-price disorder and promote product quality [2] - The NDRC has issued a directive to comprehensively address "involution" competition by supporting enterprises in enhancing product quality and core competitiveness through technological innovation [3] - The NDRC is committed to eliminating ineffective production capacity and fostering a healthy and orderly innovation ecosystem by optimizing industrial layout and promoting integration and restructuring [3]