1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The geopolitical upheaval in the Middle East, the sharp rise in crude oil prices, and the better - than - expected US economic data have weakened the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations. The strengthening of the US dollar has suppressed copper prices. It is recommended to pay attention to the lower support and try to go long on dips. In the long - term, the outlook for copper remains positive [8][9][86] 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Macro Economy - The geopolitical upheaval in Iran has led to a sharp rise in crude oil prices. The US dollar index has strongly suppressed copper prices. The US ADP small non - farm payrolls data in February exceeded expectations, and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations for the year have been weakened. The US non - farm payrolls report for February is to be released, and different results may have different impacts on the US dollar and commodities [12][16] - In February 2026, China's manufacturing PMI was 49%, down 0.3 percentage points from January and below the boom - bust line. The GDP growth target for 2026 has been adjusted to a range of 4.5% - 5%. The monetary policy will be moderately loose, and emerging industries are key development directions, which is beneficial to the demand for copper [17] 3.2 Supply - Demand Analysis 3.2.1 Supply - **Copper concentrate supply**: Although Iran's copper production accounts for a small proportion of the global total, the shipping blockage in the Strait of Hormuz and the spread of conflicts have increased the risk premium. Some mines in the Congo (DRC) and Peru have been affected by conflicts and natural disasters, affecting copper concentrate transportation. China's copper concentrate imports were high in 2025, but the growth rate slowed down at the beginning of 2026 [52] - **Copper concentrate processing fees**: The copper concentrate TC has been running at a low level, and the market expects the supply of copper concentrate in 2026 to be tight. The copper smelting industry is "anti - involution", and the industry association has proposed measures such as capacity control and resource reserve [53] - **Electrolytic copper production**: Affected by the shortage of copper ore raw materials and smelting maintenance, the electrolytic copper production in China in February decreased month - on - month. It is expected to increase in March [54] - **Import**: The import of unwrought copper and copper products in 2025 decreased year - on - year. The import of refined copper in December 2025 decreased both month - on - month and year - on - year [54] - **Scrap copper supply**: The growth of scrap copper supply has eased the pressure of raw material shortage, and the refined - scrap price difference has converged [54] 3.2.2 Demand - **Green copper demand**: Renewable energy systems have a much higher copper consumption than traditional power systems. Electric vehicles also have a large demand for copper [57] - **Automobile demand**: In January 2026, automobile sales decreased month - on - month and year - on - year. New energy vehicle sales increased slightly year - on - year, and exports increased significantly [57] - **Power demand**: In 2025, power grid investment increased year - on - year, and the photovoltaic industry maintained a high - speed growth trend. In January 2026, China's new photovoltaic grid - connected capacity increased [57] - **Home appliance demand**: In January 2026, the production schedule of air - conditioners for domestic sales and exports increased year - on - year. In February, affected by policies and holidays, the production schedule decreased year - on - year [57] 3.2.3 Inventory - As of March 6, domestic and overseas copper inventories continued to accumulate. The LME copper inventory was at a nearly 11 - year high, and the COMEX copper inventory was still accumulating. The US may hoard copper for strategic reasons, and the effective circulation of copper inventory is expected to be tight [58] 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In the short term, copper prices will fluctuate widely and fall under pressure to the 100,000 - yuan mark. As the traditional peak consumption season of "Golden March and Silver April" begins and the policies of the Two Sessions gradually take effect, and the geopolitical risks in the Middle East gradually ease, the market sentiment may gradually improve, and the macro and micro factors may resonate [9][86] - It is recommended to try to go long on dips. Industrial buyers should purchase according to demand and increase inventory replenishment on dips. Sellers should wait for a rebound and hedge against the upper pressure level. In the long - term, due to the shortage of copper mines, the explosion of green copper demand, the national strategic resource security premium, and the intensification of Sino - US competition, the long - term trend of copper is still optimistic. The focus range for Shanghai copper is [98,000, 105,000] yuan/ton, and for LME copper is [12,500, 13,500] US dollars/ton [9][86]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - **Macro Aspect**: On the 22nd, the US Customs and Border Protection Bureau (CBP) announced that it would stop imposing tariffs levied under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act starting from February 24th, Eastern Time. On the 20th, Trump announced a 10% import tariff on global goods for 150 days under Section 122 of the US Trade Act of 1974 after the Supreme Court's ruling. On February 28th, the Iran-US conflict broke out, resulting in the death of Iran's Supreme Leader. Currently, military operations are still ongoing, and the Strait of Hormuz is blocked after Iran's military retaliation [6]. - **Supply Aspect**: In February, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 36,900 tons month-on-month, a decline of 3.13%, and increased by 7.96% year-on-year, 1,100 tons lower than the expected value. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month-on-month and 6.51% year-on-year. Since many enterprises that underwent maintenance in January will resume production in March and new smelters will increase production, the production in March may reach a record high. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the domestic demand for scrap copper is expected to increase. However, domestic policies are disrupting the scrap copper industry chain. As demand grows, the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports [6]. - **Demand Aspect**: Copper prices have been rising continuously, and downstream terminals have a strong resistance to high prices. The demand from the copper product sector has weakened. Currently, it is the off-season for the industry, combined with high copper prices. It is expected that the performance of downstream copper products will continue to be under pressure. According to SMM, in January 2026, the operating rate of Chinese copper rod enterprises dropped to 61%, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises dropped to only 20%, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises remained at 88.5%, almost unchanged month-on-month, and the operating rate of domestic copper strip enterprises was about 70% [6]. - **Comprehensive View**: Shanghai copper fluctuated within a narrow range during the month. During the month, it was affected by the news that the China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include copper concentrates in the copper resource reserve, as well as the impact of US tariff disturbances and Middle East geopolitical conflicts. Guided by the global asset risk aversion sentiment, high copper prices affected the downstream's purchasing and inventory - building. In terms of supply, although the shortage of copper concentrates remained, domestic copper production remained at a high level, and even higher production may occur in March. The actual supply - demand of copper showed an oversupply. The data of the terminal automobile and real estate sectors were sluggish. The subsequent performance may depend on the policy expectations brought by major domestic meetings in March. Recently, copper prices have been mostly affected by their macro - financial attributes. The strengthening of the US dollar under the recent Middle East geopolitical conflicts may suppress copper prices. After the sentiment gradually eases, copper prices will be under short - term pressure and fluctuate mainly, and be bullish in the medium - to - long term [6]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Supply - side Data - **Copper Concentrate Supply**: In December 2025, China imported 2.704 million physical tons of copper ore and concentrates, a month - on - month increase of 7% and a year - on - year increase of 7.2%. From January to December, China's cumulative imports of copper ore and concentrates reached 30.365 million physical tons, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 7.8%. On February 6th, Canadian mining giant Capstone Copper announced that the largest union at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile had approved a new three - year labor contract, ending the strike that started on January 2nd [14]. - **Smelter Fees**: As of February 28th, China's spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 50.96 US dollars per dry ton, and the RC fee was - 5.01 US cents per pound. The TC/RC fees continued to decline, while the sulfuric acid price still maintained an upward trend. Precious metals soared due to geopolitical conflicts, and the profits from smelter by - products were maintained. The China Smelters Purchase Team (CSPT) announced that its members would jointly cut production by more than 10% in 2026. On December 19th, Chinese copper smelter representatives and international mining giant Antofagasta finalized the 2026 copper concentrate long - term processing fee (Benchmark) at 0 US dollars per ton and 0 US cents per pound, a historic "zero" compared to 21.25 US dollars per ton and 2.125 US cents per pound in 2025 [18]. - **Scrap Copper Supply**: According to SMM data, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises this week was 2.15%, a month - on - month increase of 2.15 percentage points and a year - on - year decrease of 31.52 percentage points. The resumption time of factories was postponed compared to the pre - holiday expected time, which may affect the output of finished products. According to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in December 2025, China's imports of recycled copper raw materials reached 239,000 tons, and the imports at each customs showed significant differentiation. Due to the shortage of copper concentrates, the domestic demand for scrap copper is expected to increase. However, domestic policies are disrupting the scrap copper industry chain. As demand grows, the supply gap of scrap copper is expected to be filled by overseas imports [22]. - **Refined Copper Supply**: In February, SMM's Chinese electrolytic copper production decreased by 36,900 tons month - on - month, a decline of 3.13%, and increased by 7.96% year - on - year, 1,100 tons lower than the expected value. It is expected that the production in March will increase by 52,800 tons month - on - month and 6.51% year - on - year. Since many enterprises that underwent maintenance in January will resume production in March and new smelters will increase production, the production in March may reach a record high. In December 2025, the imports of unwrought copper and copper products were 437,000 tons, a 21.8% decrease compared to December 2024. From January to December 2025, the cumulative imports were 5.321 million tons, a 6.4% decrease compared to January - December 2024 [26]. Copper Demand Status - **Apparent Demand**: Copper prices have been rising continuously, and downstream terminals have a strong resistance to high prices. The demand from the copper product sector has weakened. Currently, it is the off - season for the industry, combined with high copper prices. It is expected that the performance of downstream copper products will continue to be under pressure. According to SMM, in January 2026, the operating rate of Chinese copper rod enterprises dropped to 61%, the operating rate of recycled copper rod enterprises dropped to only 20%, the operating rate of copper foil enterprises remained at 88.5%, almost unchanged month - on - month, and the operating rate of domestic copper strip enterprises was about 70% [33]. - **Power Grid Project Data**: In 2025, China's total social electricity consumption exceeded 10 trillion kilowatt - hours for the first time, reaching 10.37 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5.0%, ranking first in the world in terms of electricity consumption. It is expected that in 2026, China's total social electricity consumption will be between 10.9 and 11 trillion kilowatt - hours, a year - on - year increase of 5% - 6%. The maximum unified power load throughout the year is expected to be between 15.7 and 16.3 billion kilowatts. The newly added power generation capacity in 2026 is expected to exceed 400 million kilowatts, among which the newly added new - energy power generation capacity is expected to exceed 300 million kilowatts. It is expected that the installed capacity of solar power generation will exceed that of coal - fired power generation for the first time in 2026. By the end of the year, the combined installed capacity of wind and solar power generation will reach half of the total power generation capacity, and the proportion of coal - fired power in the total installed capacity will drop to about 31% [37]. - **Household Appliance Demand**: According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December 2025, China's air - conditioner production was 21.629 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.6%; the national refrigerator production was 10.011 million units, a year - on - year increase of 5.7%; the national washing - machine production was 11.975 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 4.4%; the national color - TV production was 19.521 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 1.2%. There were promotional activities at the end of the year, but the increase in market consumption was limited [41]. - **Real Estate and Infrastructure Data**: In January, the commercial housing transaction area in 30 large and medium - sized cities decreased by 20.08% year - on - year, and the decline was slightly narrowed by 2.08 percentage points compared to the previous month. The real estate sector was still in a drag state. Five departments in Shanghai jointly issued the "Notice on Further Optimizing and Adjusting the Real Estate Policies in this City" ("Shanghai Seven Articles"), which came into effect on February 26, 2026. According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in December, the sales area of newly built commercial housing was 93.99 million square meters, a month - on - month increase of 39.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 16.58%; the sales volume of newly built commercial housing was 880.7 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 44.07% and a year - on - year decrease of 24.24% [46]. - **Automobile/New - Energy Automobile Industry Data**: According to data from the Passenger Car Association, from February 1st to 8th, the new - energy retail penetration rate in the national passenger - car market was 36.4%; from February 1st to 8th, the new - energy wholesale penetration rate of national passenger - car manufacturers was 43.9%. From February 1st to 8th, the new - energy wholesale volume of national passenger - car manufacturers was 125,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 39% compared to the same period in February last year and a 3% increase compared to the same period in the previous month. Since the beginning of this year, the cumulative wholesale volume has been 989,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 1%. In January, the production and sales of automobiles were 2.45 million and 2.346 million units respectively. The production increased by 0.01% year - on - year, and the sales decreased by 3.2% year - on - year. Among them, the new - energy automobile market operated stably, with production and sales of 1.041 million and 945,000 units respectively, a year - on - year increase of 2.5% and 0.1% respectively. In addition, the commercial - vehicle market continued to show a positive trend. In January, both production and sales maintained double - digit year - on - year growth. In January, automobile exports continued to grow. Among them, new - energy automobile exports maintained high - speed growth, with 302,000 units exported, a year - on - year increase of 100%. Since January 1st, 2026, the vehicle purchase tax has changed from exemption to half - reduction. On December 30th, the "Notice on Implementing the Large - scale Equipment Upgrading and Consumer Goods Trade - in Policy in 2026" was issued, stating that the "trade - in" subsidy for heavy - duty trucks and buses will continue, with the subsidy scope and standards the same as in 2025. The subsidy for passenger cars has changed from a fixed - amount subsidy to a proportional subsidy, with the subsidy ceiling unchanged. The subsidy for low - price cars has been reduced, and the subsidy makes up for part of the reduction caused by the increase in the purchase tax [50]. Copper Inventory Data - **Global Major Exchange Copper Inventories**: As of February 27, 2026, the LME copper inventory was 253,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 45.87% and a year - on - year decrease of 3.77%. The COMEX copper inventory was 601,500 short tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.11% and a year - on - year increase of 525.19%. After the C - L spread converged, the LME copper inventory warrants began to increase. Currently, it is about to increase to a level higher than the same period last year. The global overall inventory shows an accumulation of inventory, which suppresses the rise of copper prices. At present, there is no short - term expectation for the US refined copper tariff to be issued, and the marginal effect of the US copper siphon is weakening [56]. - **Copper Inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange and Bonded Areas**: As of February 27, 2026, the inventory of electrolytic copper futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 290,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 137,939 tons, an increase of 90.36%, and a year - on - year increase of 87.87%. During the Chinese New Year, most downstream enterprises stopped production, while the reduction in the supply side was limited, resulting in a significant accumulation of copper inventory. On February 26th, the cumulative spot copper inventory in the bonded areas of Shanghai and Guangdong was 99,300 tons. The inventory in the bonded areas continued to increase during the week, mainly because some export goods from smelters arrived and were stored in the warehouse, but the quantity was relatively small, and the inventory accumulation was limited [61].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market has warmed up, and prices are expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival. Domestic copper purchase and storage expectations boost future confidence, but the current high inventory during the traditional consumption off - season suppresses prices. With the approaching Spring Festival, market liquidity is decreasing, and cautious operations are recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation. In January, the copper production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. In February, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The apparent copper consumption as of December 2025 was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. After the pre - holiday copper price correction, the downstream industry chain replenished raw materials. As the price warms up and the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream has mostly entered the holiday mode, and procurement and purchases have decreased marginally [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 10 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 115 yuan/ton. On February 9, 2026, the LME official price was 13,043 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 63 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 US cents/pound [9] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 165,900 tons, an increase of 8,811 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 91,100 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 184,300 tons, an increase of 1,025 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 590,200 short tons, an increase of 1,130 short tons from the previous period [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed Chair nomination ignited the risk - aversion sentiment, causing the non - ferrous metals sector to rise first and then fall. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors, and overall, the market shows a complex and changeable situation. [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It shows their daily, weekly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 97.6 with a daily decline of 0.36%, a weekly increase of 0.51%, and an annual decrease of 0.67%. [7] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors are bullish, with positive signals from Sino - US relations, US economic data, and strategic mineral reserve plans. The raw material end is also bullish due to tight copper ore supply. The smelting end is neutral with different profit situations for spot and long - term contract smelters. The demand end is neutral as the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period. The inventory is bearish as the global visible copper inventory increases. The investment view is oscillating upward, with a trading strategy of going long on dips. [9] - **Main Data**: The closing price of Shanghai copper is 100100 yuan/ton, a 3.5% decrease from last week. The spot premium of flat - copper in China has narrowed, and the LME copper spot premium has widened. The copper ore port inventory has decreased, and the spot processing fee has continued to decline. The refined copper output has increased, and the import loss has slightly widened. [10][24][35] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors lead to an oscillating market, with factors like Fed expectations, geopolitics, and AI earnings affecting the market. The raw material end is slightly bullish as the processing fee stabilizes, and supply concerns ease. The smelting end is neutral with production contraction and losses. The demand end is bearish due to weak seasonal demand. The inventory is neutral with an increase in social inventory and a slight decrease in LME inventory. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see. [94] - **Main Data**: The closing price of Shanghai zinc is 24450 yuan/ton, a 5.36% decrease from last week. The domestic market has turned to a discount, and the processing fee has bottomed out and stabilized. The production of zinc ingots has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has declined. [95][96] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Nickel**: Macro factors are slightly bullish, with improved US consumer confidence and concerns about Fed policy easing. The raw material end is slightly bullish due to firm nickel ore premiums and reduced imports. The smelting end is neutral with changes in production and prices of pure nickel, nickel iron, and MHP. The demand end is neutral with weakening stainless steel demand and high - level new energy production and sales. The inventory is slightly bearish as the global nickel inventory has increased. The investment view is wide - range oscillating, and the trading strategy is to go long on dips. [203] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro and raw material factors are similar to those of nickel. The supply end is neutral with a significant decline in production scheduling. The demand and inventory situation is slightly bearish with an increase in inventory and weakening demand. The basis is neutral. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see, with enterprises looking for opportunities to sell on rallies. [204] - **Main Data**: The closing price of LME nickel is 17235 US dollars/ton, a 1.82% decrease from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel is 131840 yuan/ton, a 5.83% decrease from last week. The closing price of stainless steel is 13670 yuan/ton, a 3.32% decrease from last week. The nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the stainless steel social inventory has increased. [205]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Short - term High - level Consolidation, Prudent Operation Before the Festival [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bullish sentiment has weakened, and the market is volatile due to capital and sentiment. However, the main bullish logic remains unchanged, and the long - term upward trend continues. Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to control positions and operate prudently [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's nomination of Warsh as the Fed Chairman led the market to pre - trade Warsh's hawkish policies. The sell - off in US software stocks spread to the entire technology sector, and multiple factors intensified the decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals [6] - **Copper Ore**: Trump plans to invest $12 billion in key mineral reserves. China aims to improve the copper resource reserve system. The strike at Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile ended, and normal production is expected to resume [6] - **Scrap Copper**: Domestic policies related to recycled copper have tightened, and some supply enterprises will be on holiday during the Spring Festival, so the supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is expected to decline [6] - **Refined Copper**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. SMM expects a decline in February. As of February 5, domestic mainstream copper inventories increased, while bonded - area inventories decreased. LME inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [6] - **Consumption**: After the copper price correction, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, but it is expected to weaken next week as the Spring Festival approaches [6] - **Spread and Ratio**: LME inventories are continuously accumulating, the domestic import window is periodically opened, and the spread and premium are expected to remain in a discount state [6] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Price Trends - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai Copper Main Contract and LME 3 - Month Copper, and lists important events affecting copper prices such as processing fee drops, trade investigations, and production plan adjustments from 2025 - 2026 [8][9] 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - **Copper Concentrate Market**: On February 6, the SMM imported copper concentrate index decreased. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The production of major copper - producing countries such as Peru and Chile showed different trends [19][25][28] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of this Friday, the refined - scrap spread is 3,127 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased slightly. In 2025, the supply of domestic scrap copper increased, and the import of scrap copper also showed an upward trend [34][39] - **Blister Copper Market**: In October 2025, blister copper production increased year - on - year. The import of anode copper decreased in 2025. The average processing fee for southern blister copper increased this week [41][44] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly. SMM expects a decline in February. In 2025, the import of refined copper decreased, and the export increased [46][49] - **Copper Products Operating Rate**: The overall copper products operating rate showed a mixed trend. Some industries' operating rates increased due to pre - holiday stocking and price corrections, while others are expected to decline in February [51][60][66] - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Air - conditioning Consumption**: In December 2025, China's household air - conditioning market did not meet expectations. The production and sales of air - conditioners decreased year - on - year. The production schedule for 2026 shows different trends in domestic and export sales [71] - **Automobile Consumption**: In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased. It is predicted that the total automobile sales in 2026 will increase slightly, and new - energy vehicle sales are expected to grow by 15.2% [75] - **Grid Investment**: In 2025, China's grid investment increased year - on - year, while the power source project investment decreased. The State Grid's fixed - asset investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan [78] - **Real Estate Market**: In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area and housing completion area decreased year - on - year [83] - **Overseas Data**: The report shows the data of US new housing sales, new private residential starts, automobile sales, and European passenger car registrations [86] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: In 2025, China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts different growth trends for future photovoltaic installations [89] - **Global New - energy Vehicle Sales**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased. In December, global new - energy vehicle sales increased year - on - year, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased slightly [91][95] 3.4 Industry News and Macroeconomic Data - Trump nominated Warsh as the Fed Chairman, and the US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill. Southern Copper Corp. expects a decline in copper production in the next two years. The US ISM manufacturing PMI index rose significantly in January, and there are also other important industry and macro news [96]

Industry Overview - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced the need to improve the copper resource reserve system, coinciding with the U.S. launching a $12 billion critical mineral reserve plan, including copper, to mitigate supply chain risks [1][2] - On February 2, domestic copper prices briefly fell, but downstream replenishment demand surged, with electrolytic copper and copper rod transaction volumes reaching 38,000 and 43,000 tons, respectively, marking increases of 108% and 198% compared to the previous period, hitting new highs in three months [1] Commentary - Both China and the U.S. have initiated copper resource reserve plans, indicating a sustained growth in strategic stockpiling demand. China is focusing on a combination of state and commercial storage models, considering both refined copper and copper concentrate [2] - The U.S. has seen a rapid increase in copper inventories at its two major exchanges, with LME copper inventory rising to 15,000 tons in just 11 trading days, and COMEX copper inventory reaching 530,000 tons, up 2% week-on-week [2] - The industry's replenishment is expected to support copper prices, with strong demand for low-priced copper amid low inventory levels and the upcoming spring peak season. Supply disruptions in overseas copper mines and low TC/RC levels may further tighten supply and push copper prices higher [2] - The long-term outlook for the copper industry remains bullish, with a significant increase in demand driven by insufficient capital expenditure over the past decade. The copper supply-demand balance is expected to remain tight, potentially raising the price center. As of February 3, the Shenyin Wanguo copper industry PE (TTM) was 25.6 times, a 13% adjustment from the January 29 peak, positioned at the 31st percentile of the past decade's valuation levels [2]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities highlights the construction of a copper resource reserve system in China aimed at enhancing the resilience and security of the domestic copper supply chain, amidst a global context of resource competition and increasing copper shortages, which is expected to drive copper prices up due to a "safety premium" [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Resource Reserve System - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced on February 3 that it will enhance the copper resource reserve system by expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism through fiscal subsidies for state-owned enterprises [1]. - The current high-level copper reserve strategy transcends mere price stabilization and aligns with national goals to ensure the security of critical industrial supply chains [2]. Group 2: Global Copper Market Dynamics - The competition among major powers for resource security is reshaping the copper supply-demand balance, with increased reserves leading to reduced market supply and heightened tension [3]. - The anticipated copper shortage is expected to worsen by 2026, with a projected reduction in global refined copper surplus to 170,000 tons, potentially leading to price increases if China engages in significant reserve purchases [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Demand - Recent declines in copper prices have stimulated downstream demand, with a notable increase in orders for copper rods, which surged to 42,000 tons, marking a historical high [4]. - The improved acceptance of lower copper prices has accelerated procurement activities, enhancing market liquidity and supporting a potential recovery in copper prices [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the increasing strategic demand for copper resources in both China and the United States, driven by new reserve plans aimed at mitigating supply chain risks [1] - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association's deputy secretary-general emphasized the need to improve the copper resource reserve system during a press conference [1] - The U.S. has initiated a $12 billion critical minerals reserve plan, known as "Project Vault," which includes over 50 critical minerals identified by the U.S. Geological Survey, such as rare earths, lithium, and copper [1] Group 2 - According to Mysteel data, domestic copper prices experienced a brief decline, but downstream replenishment demand surged significantly, with electrolytic copper and copper rod transaction volumes reaching 38,000 and 43,000 tons, respectively, marking increases of 108% and 198% [1] - The report suggests that both China and the U.S. are launching copper resource reserve plans, indicating a sustained growth in strategic stockpiling demand [1] - The combination of seasonal replenishment during spring and tight supply conditions may further drive up copper prices, with a bullish outlook for the copper industry in the long term [1] Group 3 - The company maintains its profit forecasts, targets, and ratings for related firms, suggesting a focus on leading companies with high copper self-sufficiency, strong resource expansion potential, and merger and acquisition capabilities [1] - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining (02899), Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), Western Mining (601168.SH), Jincheng Mining (603979.SH), and Tongling Nonferrous Metals (000630.SZ) [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side disturbances in the copper market limit the price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 105,160 with a daily increase of 0.63%, and the night - session closing price was 102,590 with a decline of 2.44%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,040 with a decline of 2.76% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 471,921, a decrease of 274,488 from the previous day, and the open interest was 617,249, an increase of 11,759. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,322, a decrease of 12,365, and the open interest was 322,000, an increase of 6,542 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 159,772, an increase of 751, and the LME Copper inventory was 178,650, an increase of 2,525. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.83%, a decrease of 8.22% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 64.25, a decrease of 5.08 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 89,900, an increase of 1,000. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 100, an increase of 20 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US ISM manufacturing index in January rose to 52.6, the highest since 2022, significantly higher than market expectations. President Trump urged the House Republicans to cooperate with the Democrats to reopen the federal government [1]. - **Industry**: Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Capstone Copper resumed the operation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec and reduced investment in the copper refinery in the medium term [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - The global copper ore grade is declining, leading to a sustained trend of supply tightness, which may enhance copper's status as a key metal [1][5][17] - As of January 29, LME copper price reached a record high of $14,500 per ton, with a year-to-date increase of over 6% [17] - Major copper producers like Glencore and Antofagasta have reported expected declines in copper production for 2025, indicating a challenging supply outlook [18] Group 2: Regulatory and Market Reactions - *ST Lifan's stock exhibited extreme volatility, with a trading range of 40.41% on February 4, reflecting market sentiment and potential irrational speculation [2][4] - The company has been warned about the possibility of being delisted due to significant deviations from its fundamental value, highlighting regulatory scrutiny [4][15] Group 3: Copper Mining Sector Performance - Eight copper-related stocks in the A-share market have shown positive earnings forecasts, with an average increase of 15.49% year-to-date, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [19][21] - Notable companies like Zijin Mining are expected to report a net profit of approximately 51 to 52 billion yuan for 2025, marking a year-on-year growth of 59% to 62% [11][21] Group 4: Strategic Developments in Copper Reserves - The China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association is working to improve copper smelting capacity management, having halted over 2 million tons of copper smelting projects [5][16] - There are plans to expand the national copper strategic reserve and explore commercial reserve mechanisms, potentially including copper concentrate in the reserve scope [5][16]