分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 冠通期货研究报告 --3月沪铜月度报告 发布日期：2026年3月2日 冠通期货研究咨询部 分析师：王静 执业证书号：F0235424/Z0000771 联系电话：010-85356618 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 1 核心观点—沪铜 分析师王静：F0235424/Z0000771 投资有风险，入市须谨慎。 ，2 ➢ 宏观方面：22日，美国海关与边境保护局（CBP）表示，将从美国东部时间2月24日起停止征收依据《国际紧急经济权力法》开征的关税。 同在20日，特朗普在最高法院裁决公布后宣布，依据美国《1974年贸易法》第122条，对全球商品加征10%的进口关税，为期150天。2月 28日，伊美冲突爆发，伊朗最高领袖身亡，目前军事行动依然进行中，伊朗进行军事报复行动后，目前霍尔木兹海峡封锁。 ➢ 供给方面： 2月SMM中国电解铜产量环比减少3.69万吨，降幅为3.13%，同比上升7.96%，比预期值低0.11万吨。预计3月产量环比增长5.28万吨， 同比上升6.51%，由于1月份检修 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The sentiment in the copper market has warmed up, and prices are expected to stabilize before the Spring Festival. Domestic copper purchase and storage expectations boost future confidence, but the current high inventory during the traditional consumption off - season suppresses prices. With the approaching Spring Festival, market liquidity is decreasing, and cautious operations are recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The Shanghai copper futures opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation. In January, the copper production was 1.57 million tons more than expected, and it is expected to return to normal in February. In February, the expected output of electrolytic copper in China will decrease by 35,800 tons month - on - month, a decrease of 3.04%, and increase by 8.06% year - on - year. The apparent copper consumption as of December 2025 was 1.3188 million tons, a 4.00% increase from the previous month. After the pre - holiday copper price correction, the downstream industry chain replenished raw materials. As the price warms up and the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream has mostly entered the holiday mode, and procurement and purchases have decreased marginally [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Shanghai copper opened higher and moved higher, showing a strong intraday oscillation. - Spot: The spot premium in East China is 10 yuan/ton, and in South China is - 115 yuan/ton. On February 9, 2026, the LME official price was 13,043 US dollars/ton, and the spot premium was - 63 US dollars/ton [4] Supply Side - As of February 9, the spot rough smelting fee (TC) was - 51.23 US dollars/dry ton, and the spot refining fee (RC) was - 5.21 US cents/pound [9] Fundamental Tracking - Inventory - SHFE copper inventory is 165,900 tons, an increase of 8,811 tons from the previous period. As of February 9, the copper inventory in the Shanghai Bonded Area is 91,100 tons, an increase of 1,700 tons from the previous period. The LME copper inventory is 184,300 tons, an increase of 1,025 tons from the previous period. The COMEX copper inventory is 590,200 short tons, an increase of 1,130 short tons from the previous period [13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Fed Chair nomination ignited the risk - aversion sentiment, causing the non - ferrous metals sector to rise first and then fall. Different non - ferrous metals have different market trends and influencing factors, and overall, the market shows a complex and changeable situation. [1][2] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Non - ferrous Metal Price Monitoring - The report monitors the closing prices of various non - ferrous metals, including the US dollar index, exchange rate CNH, and prices of industrial silicon, lithium carbonate, copper, aluminum, zinc, etc. It shows their daily, weekly, and annual percentage changes. For example, the US dollar index is at 97.6 with a daily decline of 0.36%, a weekly increase of 0.51%, and an annual decrease of 0.67%. [7] 3.2 Copper (CU) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors are bullish, with positive signals from Sino - US relations, US economic data, and strategic mineral reserve plans. The raw material end is also bullish due to tight copper ore supply. The smelting end is neutral with different profit situations for spot and long - term contract smelters. The demand end is neutral as the downstream is in the pre - Spring Festival stocking period. The inventory is bearish as the global visible copper inventory increases. The investment view is oscillating upward, with a trading strategy of going long on dips. [9] - **Main Data**: The closing price of Shanghai copper is 100100 yuan/ton, a 3.5% decrease from last week. The spot premium of flat - copper in China has narrowed, and the LME copper spot premium has widened. The copper ore port inventory has decreased, and the spot processing fee has continued to decline. The refined copper output has increased, and the import loss has slightly widened. [10][24][35] 3.3 Zinc (ZN) - **Logic and Strategy**: Macro factors lead to an oscillating market, with factors like Fed expectations, geopolitics, and AI earnings affecting the market. The raw material end is slightly bullish as the processing fee stabilizes, and supply concerns ease. The smelting end is neutral with production contraction and losses. The demand end is bearish due to weak seasonal demand. The inventory is neutral with an increase in social inventory and a slight decrease in LME inventory. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see. [94] - **Main Data**: The closing price of Shanghai zinc is 24450 yuan/ton, a 5.36% decrease from last week. The domestic market has turned to a discount, and the processing fee has bottomed out and stabilized. The production of zinc ingots has decreased, and the downstream start - up rate has declined. [95][96] 3.4 Nickel - Stainless Steel (NI·SS) - **Nickel**: Macro factors are slightly bullish, with improved US consumer confidence and concerns about Fed policy easing. The raw material end is slightly bullish due to firm nickel ore premiums and reduced imports. The smelting end is neutral with changes in production and prices of pure nickel, nickel iron, and MHP. The demand end is neutral with weakening stainless steel demand and high - level new energy production and sales. The inventory is slightly bearish as the global nickel inventory has increased. The investment view is wide - range oscillating, and the trading strategy is to go long on dips. [203] - **Stainless Steel**: Macro and raw material factors are similar to those of nickel. The supply end is neutral with a significant decline in production scheduling. The demand and inventory situation is slightly bearish with an increase in inventory and weakening demand. The basis is neutral. The investment view is oscillating, and the trading strategy is to wait and see, with enterprises looking for opportunities to sell on rallies. [204] - **Main Data**: The closing price of LME nickel is 17235 US dollars/ton, a 1.82% decrease from last week. The closing price of Shanghai nickel is 131840 yuan/ton, a 5.83% decrease from last week. The closing price of stainless steel is 13670 yuan/ton, a 3.32% decrease from last week. The nickel ore port inventory has decreased, and the stainless steel social inventory has increased. [205]

Report Title - Copper Weekly Report: Short - term High - level Consolidation, Prudent Operation Before the Festival [1] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term bullish sentiment has weakened, and the market is volatile due to capital and sentiment. However, the main bullish logic remains unchanged, and the long - term upward trend continues. Near the Spring Festival, it is recommended to control positions and operate prudently [5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Macro - aspect**: Trump's nomination of Warsh as the Fed Chairman led the market to pre - trade Warsh's hawkish policies. The sell - off in US software stocks spread to the entire technology sector, and multiple factors intensified the decline in precious metals and non - ferrous metals [6] - **Copper Ore**: Trump plans to invest $12 billion in key mineral reserves. China aims to improve the copper resource reserve system. The strike at Mantoverde copper - gold mine in Chile ended, and normal production is expected to resume [6] - **Scrap Copper**: Domestic policies related to recycled copper have tightened, and some supply enterprises will be on holiday during the Spring Festival, so the supply of scrap - produced blister copper and anode plates is expected to decline [6] - **Refined Copper**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production was 1.1793 million tons, with a slight increase. SMM expects a decline in February. As of February 5, domestic mainstream copper inventories increased, while bonded - area inventories decreased. LME inventories are expected to continue to accumulate [6] - **Consumption**: After the copper price correction, downstream procurement enthusiasm increased, but it is expected to weaken next week as the Spring Festival approaches [6] - **Spread and Ratio**: LME inventories are continuously accumulating, the domestic import window is periodically opened, and the spread and premium are expected to remain in a discount state [6] 3.2 Domestic and Overseas Price Trends - The report shows the price trends of Shanghai Copper Main Contract and LME 3 - Month Copper, and lists important events affecting copper prices such as processing fee drops, trade investigations, and production plan adjustments from 2025 - 2026 [8][9] 3.3 Copper Fundamental Analysis and Weekly Data Tracking - **Copper Concentrate Market**: On February 6, the SMM imported copper concentrate index decreased. In 2025, China's copper concentrate imports increased. The production of major copper - producing countries such as Peru and Chile showed different trends [19][25][28] - **Scrap Copper Market**: As of this Friday, the refined - scrap spread is 3,127 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled copper rods increased slightly. In 2025, the supply of domestic scrap copper increased, and the import of scrap copper also showed an upward trend [34][39] - **Blister Copper Market**: In October 2025, blister copper production increased year - on - year. The import of anode copper decreased in 2025. The average processing fee for southern blister copper increased this week [41][44] - **Domestic Copper Supply**: In January, SMM China's electrolytic copper production increased slightly. SMM expects a decline in February. In 2025, the import of refined copper decreased, and the export increased [46][49] - **Copper Products Operating Rate**: The overall copper products operating rate showed a mixed trend. Some industries' operating rates increased due to pre - holiday stocking and price corrections, while others are expected to decline in February [51][60][66] - **Downstream Consumption**: - **Air - conditioning Consumption**: In December 2025, China's household air - conditioning market did not meet expectations. The production and sales of air - conditioners decreased year - on - year. The production schedule for 2026 shows different trends in domestic and export sales [71] - **Automobile Consumption**: In 2025, the production and sales of automobiles and new - energy vehicles increased. It is predicted that the total automobile sales in 2026 will increase slightly, and new - energy vehicle sales are expected to grow by 15.2% [75] - **Grid Investment**: In 2025, China's grid investment increased year - on - year, while the power source project investment decreased. The State Grid's fixed - asset investment during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period is expected to reach 4 trillion yuan [78] - **Real Estate Market**: In 2025, the national commercial housing sales area and housing completion area decreased year - on - year [83] - **Overseas Data**: The report shows the data of US new housing sales, new private residential starts, automobile sales, and European passenger car registrations [86] - **Photovoltaic and Wind Power**: In 2025, China's new photovoltaic and wind power installations increased year - on - year. The China Photovoltaic Industry Association predicts different growth trends for future photovoltaic installations [89] - **Global New - energy Vehicle Sales**: In 2025, the production and sales of new - energy vehicles increased. In December, global new - energy vehicle sales increased year - on - year, while US new - energy vehicle sales decreased slightly [91][95] 3.4 Industry News and Macroeconomic Data - Trump nominated Warsh as the Fed Chairman, and the US Senate passed a $1.2 trillion government spending bill. Southern Copper Corp. expects a decline in copper production in the next two years. The US ISM manufacturing PMI index rose significantly in January, and there are also other important industry and macro news [96]

产业补库托底铜价，春季旺季补库叠加供应偏紧或进一步推升铜价。 一是下游在库存低位背景下对于低价铜补库意愿强。二是考虑到春季旺季到来，在 海外铜矿供应扰动频发且TC/RC处于低位的背景下，我们认为铜供需或持续偏紧，有望进一步推升铜价。 行业近况 2月 3日 [1] ， 中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫在2025年有色金属工业经济运行情况新闻发布会上表示，完善铜资源储备体系建设。2月2日 [2] ，美 国 宣布正启动一项120亿美元的关键矿产储备计划（"Project Vault"），包括稀土、锂、铜等美国地质调查局认定的50多种关键矿产，以对冲供应链风险。 据Mysteel，2月2日国内铜价短暂回落，下游补库需求环比大幅增长，当日电解铜、铜杆成交量达3.8、4.3万吨，环比+108%、+198%，分别创近三月、 2025年3月来新高。 评论 中美均推出铜资源储备计划，战略囤库需求持续增长。 一是国内提出完善铜储备体系建设，国储与商储模式结合，精炼铜与铜精矿均纳入考量范围。二 是美国启动关键矿产储备计划，其两大交易所铜库存持续增长。据iFinD，1月19日起CME-LME铜溢价转负，LME美国铜库存仅在11个交 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from Galaxy Securities highlights the construction of a copper resource reserve system in China aimed at enhancing the resilience and security of the domestic copper supply chain, amidst a global context of resource competition and increasing copper shortages, which is expected to drive copper prices up due to a "safety premium" [1][3]. Group 1: Copper Resource Reserve System - The Chinese Nonferrous Metals Industry Association announced on February 3 that it will enhance the copper resource reserve system by expanding the national copper strategic reserve and exploring a commercial reserve mechanism through fiscal subsidies for state-owned enterprises [1]. - The current high-level copper reserve strategy transcends mere price stabilization and aligns with national goals to ensure the security of critical industrial supply chains [2]. Group 2: Global Copper Market Dynamics - The competition among major powers for resource security is reshaping the copper supply-demand balance, with increased reserves leading to reduced market supply and heightened tension [3]. - The anticipated copper shortage is expected to worsen by 2026, with a projected reduction in global refined copper surplus to 170,000 tons, potentially leading to price increases if China engages in significant reserve purchases [3]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Demand - Recent declines in copper prices have stimulated downstream demand, with a notable increase in orders for copper rods, which surged to 42,000 tons, marking a historical high [4]. - The improved acceptance of lower copper prices has accelerated procurement activities, enhancing market liquidity and supporting a potential recovery in copper prices [4].

中金认为，中美均推出铜资源储备计划，战略囤库需求持续增长。产业补库托底铜价，春季旺季补库叠 加供应偏紧或进一步推升铜价。长期看，铜行业牛市主升浪风鹏正举，短期调整迎来布局良机。 中金又指，据Mysteel数据，周一国内铜价短暂回落，下游补库需求环比大幅增长，当日电解铜、铜杆 成交量达3.8、4.3万吨，环比分别增长108%、198%，分别创近三月、2025年3月来新高。 中金维持相关公司盈利预测、目标及评级不变。建议关注铜矿自给率高、有较强增储上产和外延并购潜 力的龙头标的，包括紫金矿业(02899)、洛阳钼业(03993)、西部矿业(601168.SH)、金诚信(603979.SH)、 铜陵有色(000630.SZ)等。 智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，中国有色金属工业协会副秘书长段绍甫周二(3日)在《2025年有色 金属工业经济运行情况》记者会提出完善铜资源储备体系建设。美国亦于周一宣布正启动一项120亿美 元的关键矿产储备计划("Project Vault")，包括稀土、锂、铜等美国地质调查局认定的50多种关键矿产， 以对冲供应链风险。 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View - The supply - side disturbances in the copper market limit the price decline [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 105,160 with a daily increase of 0.63%, and the night - session closing price was 102,590 with a decline of 2.44%. The LME Copper 3M electronic disk closed at 13,040 with a decline of 2.76% [1]. - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper index was 471,921, a decrease of 274,488 from the previous day, and the open interest was 617,249, an increase of 11,759. The trading volume of the LME Copper 3M electronic disk was 26,322, a decrease of 12,365, and the open interest was 322,000, an increase of 6,542 [1]. - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 159,772, an increase of 751, and the LME Copper inventory was 178,650, an increase of 2,525. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 12.83%, a decrease of 8.22% [1]. - **Spreads**: The LME Copper cash - to - 3M spread was - 64.25, a decrease of 5.08 from the previous day. The Shanghai 1 bright copper price was 89,900, an increase of 1,000. The spot - to - near - month futures spread was - 100, an increase of 20 [1]. 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro**: The US ISM manufacturing index in January rose to 52.6, the highest since 2022, significantly higher than market expectations. President Trump urged the House Republicans to cooperate with the Democrats to reopen the federal government [1]. - **Industry**: Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Capstone Copper resumed the operation of the Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association proposed to include "copper concentrate" in the national reserve. Glencore Canada suspended major investment in the Horne smelter in Quebec and reduced investment in the copper refinery in the medium term [1][3]. 3.3 Trend Intensity - The copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral stance, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [- 2,2] interval [3].

炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 全球铜矿品位下行背景下，供给紧张趋势或持续提升铜关键金属地位。 *ST立方（维权）上演"地天板" 2月4日，*ST立方（300344）开盘股价跌停，开盘后不到1分钟股价迅速翻红，收盘时涨停，全天上演 了"地天板"剧情，振幅高达40.41%。该股曾于1月16日盘中创下历史低点，以最新收盘价与历史低点相 比，该股反弹幅度达到251.52%。 2月3日晚间，*ST立方发布《关于股票交易停牌核查结果暨复牌的公告》和《关于公司股票可能被实施 重大违法强制退市的第十次风险提示公告》。 复牌公告显示，公司股票价格已严重脱离公司基本面情况，存在市场情绪过热、非理性炒作风险。如未 来公司股票价格进一步异常上涨，公司可能再次向深交所申请停牌核查。 公告还显示，公司于2025年11月28日收到中国证券监督管理委员会安徽监管局下发的《行政处罚及市场 禁入事先告知书》（简称《告知书》）。根据《告知书》认定的事实，公司可能触及深交所规定的重大 违法强制退市情形，公司股票可能被实施重大违法强制退市。 铜精矿或纳入储备范围 2月3日，中国有色金属工业协会举行2025年 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of copper is strengthening due to disturbances at the raw material end [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 104,500 with a daily increase of 6.01%, and the night - session closing price was 105,180 with a night - session increase of 0.65%. The LME Copper 3M electronic trading price was 13,410 with a daily increase of 3.95% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai Copper Index was 746,409, a decrease of 118,859 from the previous day, and the open interest was 605,490, an increase of 1,141. For the LME Copper 3M electronic trading, the trading volume was 38,687, a decrease of 10,514, and the open interest was 326,000, a decrease of 1,276 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai Copper inventory was 159,021, an increase of 494. The LME Copper inventory was 176,125, an increase of 1,450, and the注销仓单 ratio was 21.05%, a decrease of 0.63% [1] - **Spreads**: Various spreads such as LME copper premium/discount, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - contract spreads showed different changes compared to the previous day [1] Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Macroeconomic News**: Fed Governor Milan said that more than 100 basis points of interest rate cuts are needed this year, and the US House of Representatives approved a government funding bill to end a partial shutdown [1] - **Industry News**: Zambia's copper production in 2025 was about 890,346 tons, an 8% increase from 2024. Chile's Antofagasta's 2025 copper production was below its production guidance, Glencore's 2025 copper production declined by 11%, and Southern Copper expects its copper production to decline in the next two years. Chile's copper production in December 2025 decreased by 4.7% year - on - year to 540,221 tons. Canada's Capstone Copper resumed operations at its Mantoverde copper - gold mine in northern Chile despite a union strike. The China Non - Ferrous Metals Industry Association is considering including "copper concentrate" in the national reserve [1][3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a relatively positive outlook within the [-2, 2] range [3]