华泰证券则表示，2025年以来铜矿扰动事件频发，大部分扰动在短期内解除、导致的供给减量有限。该 行表示，展望2026年，预计Kamoa-kakula铜矿与Grasberg铜矿合计造成的供给减量可能达40万吨产量， 有望抵消全球铜矿全部增量，铜供需平衡表大幅改善。叠加市场对AI相关基建铺开将驱动铜需求的预 期、铜矿扰动频发、全球财政货币宽松环境、金价对铜价有一定拖拽作用，判断铜价行情或启动。 消息面上，近日，自由港宣布旗下印尼Grasberg铜矿因泥石流事故严重破坏开采设施，预计2026年铜产 量将下降约35%，较原计划减少27万吨。今年以来，刚果(金)Kamoa-kakula铜矿因矿震减产15万吨，智 利国家铜业旗下埃尔特尼恩特铜矿也因坍塌事故停产。美银证券发布研报称，考虑到现时全球三大铜矿 均出现经营问题，预计今明两年实际产量将低于原先预期。 铜业股继续飙升，截至发稿，五矿资源(01208)涨7.53%，报6.71港元；江西铜业（600362）股份(00358) 涨5.92%，报29.66港元；中国有色矿业(01258)涨5.41%，报14.8港元；紫金矿业（601899）(02899)涨 3.73%，报3 ...

Core Viewpoint - Copper stocks are experiencing significant gains due to supply disruptions from major copper mines, leading to expectations of improved copper prices in the near future [1] Group 1: Market Performance - Minmetals Resources (01208) increased by 7.53%, reaching HKD 6.71 - Jiangxi Copper (00358) rose by 5.92%, reaching HKD 29.66 - China Nonferrous Mining (01258) gained 5.41%, reaching HKD 14.8 - Zijin Mining (02899) saw a rise of 3.73%, reaching HKD 3.36 [1] Group 2: Supply Disruptions - Freeport announced that its Grasberg copper mine in Indonesia suffered severe damage from a landslide, leading to an expected 35% decrease in copper output by 2026, equating to a reduction of 270,000 tons from previous plans - Kamoa-Kakula copper mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo has reduced output by 150,000 tons due to seismic activity - Chile's El Teniente copper mine has halted production due to a collapse [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Bank of America forecasts that actual copper production will be lower than previously expected in the next two years due to operational issues at major copper mines - Huatai Securities indicates that since 2025, there have been frequent disturbances in copper mining, but most disruptions are short-term, resulting in limited supply reductions - By 2026, the combined supply reduction from Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines could reach 400,000 tons, potentially offsetting all global copper production increases, leading to a significant improvement in the copper supply-demand balance [1]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Huatai Securities indicates that since 2025, there have been frequent disturbances in copper mines, but most of these disturbances are short-lived, resulting in limited supply reductions. [1] Supply Impact - The Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg copper mines are currently the most significant sources of supply disruption, with Grasberg expected to reduce supply by 200,000 tons in Q4 2025, which may help in depleting electrolytic copper inventories in China. [1] - By 2026, the combined supply reduction from Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg is projected to reach 400,000 tons, potentially offsetting all global copper mine increases, primarily contributed by Chinese mines such as Jiulong Copper and Mirador. [1] Market Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic copper social inventories have been fluctuating since September, indicating a balanced supply-demand situation in China. [1] - The expectation of increased copper demand driven by AI-related infrastructure development, alongside frequent disturbances in copper mines and a globally loose fiscal and monetary environment, suggests a potential upward trend in copper prices. [1] - The price of gold is also expected to exert some influence on copper prices. [1] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality copper mining companies as potential investment opportunities. [1]

消息面，Grasberg铜矿出现较大扰动，供需平衡表大幅改善下铜价有望走强。今日，聚焦有色金属及矿业机会的矿业ETF（561330）继续上涨，盘中涨超 2%，根据wind数据，矿业ETF（561330）连续10日迎净流入。 铜矿扰动事件频发，铜价行情或将启动 9月8日自由港（FCX.N）Grasberg铜矿GBC矿体五个生产区块之一"PB1C"发生事故（矿井突然涌入约80万公吨湿物料），并导致支持GBC其他生产区块的基 建受损，Grasberg铜矿整体暂停运营。截至9月24日，自由港报2人死亡5人失踪。公司正在开展搜寻失踪人员、事故调查与评估、清理淤泥与废墟等工作。 储量方面，GBC矿体储量占PIFI（自由港印尼子公司，Grasberg运营公司）已探明储量的50%。产量方面，Grasberg铜矿是全球第二大铜矿及全球第三大金 矿，2024年铜/金产量分别为82万吨/58吨，约占全球铜供给量的3%；其中出事故的GBC矿体产量占Grasberg铜矿产量的70%，是该矿最重要的矿体。总结来 说，9月24日更新报告表明，2025/2026年Grasberg矿下调指引20/27万吨，约占全球铜供给量的0.7%/1%。 ...