10月9日黄金股票ETF（517400）领涨，高开高走，收涨9.47%。矿业ETF（561330）、有色60ETF（159881）开盘略低于黄金股票ETF，但开盘后一路上 扬，分别收涨8.58%、8.44%。 资料来源：wind 黄金方面，美元信用走弱仍是长期支撑逻辑。当地时间9月17日，美国联邦储备委员会结束为期两天的货币政策会议，宣布将联邦基金利率目标区间下调25 个基点到4.00%至4.25%之间。从美国9月FOMC会议纪要看，美联储官员在降息幅度问题上存在分歧。9月会议的投票结果为11比1。唯一反对的成员是由美 国总统特朗普任命、并在9月会议首日上午宣誓就职的新上任的美联储理事斯蒂芬·米兰（Stephen Miran），他主张降息0.5个百分点。而关于2025年是否会进 一步降息，在参加会议的19位官员中，略多于一半的人预计今年还将至少再降息两次，但有少数人预计2025年剩余时间内只会降息一次或不再降息。 除此之外，国庆假期期间多国政坛震荡。美国方面，由于预算问题难以达成一致，美国联邦政府从10月1日开始的停摆已经持续一周。 法国方面，总理勒科尔尼6日宣布辞职，法国总统马克龙表示接受勒科尔尼的辞呈。勒 ...

黄金股票ETF大涨9.47%、矿业ETF大涨8.58%、有色60ETF大涨8.44%、黄金基金ETF大涨4.57%点评 10月9日，节后首个交易日，两市主要股指盘中强势拉升，上证指数涨1.32%报3933.97点，站稳3900点 续创10年新高；深证成指涨1.47%，创业板指涨0.73%，中证A500涨1.59%。A股全天成交2.67万亿元。 受国际金价大涨影响，黄金股和有色板块涨幅居前。 黄金股票ETF（517400）收盘大涨9.47% 矿业ETF（561330）收盘大涨8.58% 有色60ETF（159881）收盘大涨8.44% 黄金基金ETF（518800）收盘大涨4.57% 【上涨原因分析】现货黄金历史性突破4000美元/盎司大关；美国政府关门已超一周、地缘政治局势、 央行持续购金等多因素利好 国庆期间伦敦金现货黄金价格继大幅冲高，创历史新高。截至10月8日收盘，伦敦现货黄金报收4040.42 美元/盎司，自9月30日以来累计上涨207.49美元/盎司，涨幅5.41%。 美国联邦政府自10月1日起停摆，受此影响，美国劳工统计局未能按计划于3日公布月度就业数据统计报 告，非农、CPI等关键经济数据延迟发 ...

（责任编辑：董萍萍 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 没有股票账户的投资者可关注国泰中证有色金属矿业主题ETF发起联接C（018168），国泰中证有 色金属矿业主题ETF发起联接A（018167）；国泰中证有色金属ETF发起联接C（013219），国泰中证有 色金属ETF发起联接A（013218）。 注：如提及个股仅供参考，不代表投资建议。指数/基金短期涨跌幅及历史表现仅供分析参考，不 预示未来表现。市场观点随市场环境变化而变动，不构成任何投资建议或承诺。文中提及指数仅供参 考，不构成任何投资建议，也不构成对基金业绩的预测和保证。如需购买相关基金产品，请选择与风险 等级相匹配的产品。基金有风险，投资需谨慎。 每日经济新闻 西部证券指出，工业金属领域面临矿端干扰与冶炼端结构性调整。全球第二大铜矿Grasberg因泥石 流事故停产，Freeport将2026年铜产量预期从77万吨下调至50万 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve and Market Impact - The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and the phenomenon of "anti-involution" are contributing to a strong performance in resource stocks, with mining ETFs and precious metal ETFs seeing significant gains [1][2]. Group 2: Precious Metals - Gold prices have reached a new high, surpassing $3,850 per ounce, driven by the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and ongoing risk events. The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to central bank purchases, de-dollarization, and safe-haven demand [2]. Group 3: Industrial Metals - Ongoing disruptions in overseas copper mines have led to a supply imbalance, with actual copper production falling short of expectations. Limited capital expenditure from copper mining companies is expected to maintain a tight supply-demand balance, potentially pushing copper prices higher [3]. - The Federal Reserve's rate cuts are expected to benefit resource stocks, as lower rates may stimulate economic activity and increase demand for industrial metals like copper and aluminum [3]. Group 4: Energy Metals - The lithium market is recovering, with price increases anticipated due to policy-driven capacity adjustments. The demand for lithium battery equipment is expected to rebound in 2025 as domestic bidding and overseas expansions continue [4]. - The development of solid-state batteries is being driven by a combination of policy support, demand, and technological advancements, indicating a clear trend towards market expansion [4]. Group 5: Storage Demand - Domestic policies are guiding independent storage to become a significant growth engine, while external factors such as tariff delays and subsidy extensions in the U.S. market are creating opportunities for investment [6]. - In Europe, the demand for industrial storage is expected to grow as inventory depletion nears completion, and emerging markets are also seeing increased demand for energy storage driven by renewable energy initiatives [7]. Group 6: Investment Opportunities in Mining Sector - Mining ETFs have shown substantial year-to-date gains, with the mining ETF (561330) up over 70%, the non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) up over 60%, and the gold stock ETF (517400) up over 80% as of September 30 [8].

消息面，Grasberg铜矿出现较大扰动，供需平衡表大幅改善下铜价有望走强。今日，聚焦有色金属及矿业机会的矿业ETF（561330）继续上涨，盘中涨超 2%，根据wind数据，矿业ETF（561330）连续10日迎净流入。 铜矿扰动事件频发，铜价行情或将启动 9月8日自由港（FCX.N）Grasberg铜矿GBC矿体五个生产区块之一"PB1C"发生事故（矿井突然涌入约80万公吨湿物料），并导致支持GBC其他生产区块的基 建受损，Grasberg铜矿整体暂停运营。截至9月24日，自由港报2人死亡5人失踪。公司正在开展搜寻失踪人员、事故调查与评估、清理淤泥与废墟等工作。 储量方面，GBC矿体储量占PIFI（自由港印尼子公司，Grasberg运营公司）已探明储量的50%。产量方面，Grasberg铜矿是全球第二大铜矿及全球第三大金 矿，2024年铜/金产量分别为82万吨/58吨，约占全球铜供给量的3%；其中出事故的GBC矿体产量占Grasberg铜矿产量的70%，是该矿最重要的矿体。总结来 说，9月24日更新报告表明，2025/2026年Grasberg矿下调指引20/27万吨，约占全球铜供给量的0.7%/1%。 ...

Group 1 - The core incident involves an accident at Freeport's Grasberg copper mine, specifically in the PB1C production block, where approximately 800,000 tons of wet material surged into the mine, leading to operational suspension and infrastructure damage [1] - As of September 24, the accident resulted in 2 confirmed deaths and 5 missing persons, with ongoing search and recovery efforts, as well as an investigation into the incident [1] - According to Huatai Securities, since 2025, there has been a frequency of disturbances in copper mines, with most disturbances being short-term and having limited supply impact; however, the Grasberg mine's supply reduction is expected to significantly affect the market [1] Group 2 - The domestic electrolytic copper social inventory has been fluctuating, indicating a balanced supply and demand situation in the market [1] - The Grasberg mine is projected to reduce supply by 200,000 tons by Q4 2025, which may assist in depleting electrolytic copper inventories [1] - For 2026, it is estimated that the combined supply reduction from Kamoa-Kakula and Grasberg mines could reach 400,000 tons, potentially offsetting all global copper mine increases, leading to a significant improvement in the copper supply-demand balance [1] Group 3 - The market anticipates that the expansion of AI-related infrastructure will drive copper demand, alongside frequent disturbances in copper mines and a globally loose fiscal and monetary environment [1] - The price of gold is expected to have a certain drag effect on copper prices, suggesting a potential upward trend in copper prices [1]

Group 1 - Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia experienced a fatal landslide, leading to a long-term disruption in global copper supply [1][3] - The incident resulted in the death of two workers, with five still missing, and production is expected to not return to pre-accident levels until 2027, with a projected 35% decrease in copper and gold output for 2026 [3] - The Grasberg mine accounts for 50% of Freeport's proven reserves and approximately 70% of its expected production before 2029, indicating a significant impact on the global copper supply chain [3] Group 2 - The copper market has been facing frequent disruptions this year, with aging production facilities and declining resource endowments being major obstacles [3] - The supply-demand balance for copper is expected to remain tight, with actual production often falling short of optimistic forecasts due to various disturbances [3] - The onset of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut cycle is anticipated to benefit metal prices, including copper, silver, gold, and other strategic metals [4] Group 3 - The mining ETF (561330) has seen a net inflow for ten consecutive days, reflecting growing interest in the mining and metals sector amid the current market conditions [1][6] - The mining ETF tracks the China Securities Index for non-ferrous metal mining companies, highlighting the value of domestic mineral resources in the context of global competition [6] - Investors are encouraged to consider various ETFs focused on non-ferrous metals, including those linked to the China Securities Index for broader exposure [6]

Group 1 - The core event involves a fatal landslide at Freeport McMoRan's Grasberg mine in Indonesia, leading to a significant increase in global copper prices and supply chain concerns [1] - The Grasberg mine, the second-largest copper mine globally, has suspended production due to the incident, and the company has invoked force majeure clauses [1] - Freeport anticipates that it will take until 2027 to restore production levels to pre-accident figures, with a projected 35% decrease in copper-gold output for 2026 compared to previous expectations [1] Group 2 - The Grasberg mine accounts for 50% of Freeport's proven reserves and approximately 70% of the expected production before 2029, indicating a long-term impact on global copper supply chains [1] - Citic Futures notes that the reduction in production guidance for the Grasberg mine will exacerbate tightening pressures in the copper market, despite slightly weak terminal demand since September [1] - The expectation of a tightening supply-demand balance is expected to support metal prices, with a focus on potential buying opportunities in copper, aluminum, and tin [1]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index slightly up by 0.22% closing at 3828.58 points and a total turnover of 941.8 billion yuan, while the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.67% to 13157.97 points with a turnover of 1179.7 billion yuan [1] - The market showed a trend of more declines than gains, with notable performance in the electronics and computer sectors [1] - The trading heat has decreased recently, indicating a potential structural opportunity phase in the A-share market, suggesting investors focus on industries with superior performance trends and high prosperity [1] Gold Market - Spot gold prices rose, with London gold prices breaking through 3700 USD, reaching a new high, while domestic futures saw a significant increase of over 2%, closing at 846.50 yuan [1] - The Federal Reserve's decision to lower interest rates has bolstered gold's strong performance, with a 92% market expectation for a rate cut in October [1] - UBS forecasts global central bank gold purchases to remain strong at 900 to 950 tons this year, reflecting confidence in gold as a reserve asset, with predictions for gold prices to potentially exceed 4000 USD next year [2] Industrial Metals - Various industrial metals have seen price increases in the context of the Federal Reserve's rate cuts, with silver rising by 3.81% to 10317 yuan per kilogram, and copper maintaining prices above 80000 yuan per ton [2] - The overall non-ferrous metal sector increased by approximately 1%, outperforming other industries [2] - The demand for silver remains robust due to its applications in electronics and photovoltaic equipment, while the green energy transition and AI growth provide stable demand for copper [2] Rare Earth Market - China's strengthened export controls on rare earths have led to increased overseas restocking orders and rising domestic demand in the permanent magnet industry [3] - Expectations for rare earth policies have increased, stabilizing product prices and improving profit margins for companies [3] - The overall valuation of the non-ferrous metal index is around 24 times earnings, indicating potential for future valuation recovery [3] AI Chip Market - The domestic computing power market is experiencing a resurgence, with the Guotai Science and Technology Chip ETF rising over 5% [3] - Huawei's release of new super nodes and chips is seen as a significant advancement, with the Ascend 950 super node considered the strongest globally [4] - The domestic AI chip market is expected to grow, supported by increasing capital expenditures from domestic cloud providers [4] Photovoltaic Industry - The photovoltaic industry is recovering from previous challenges, with the Photovoltaic 50 ETF rising by 6.33% [4] - Regulatory attention on the industry's competition issues is expected to stabilize prices and profits, with upstream silicon material profits beginning to recover [4][6] - The global demand for new installations is projected to exceed 600 GW annually, with companies expanding production in low-tariff regions to maintain competitive advantages [6]

Group 1 - The article highlights a positive outlook for copper, aluminum, and precious metals due to supply constraints and resilient domestic demand, with expectations for rising metal prices [1] - For copper, the anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September is expected to enhance its financial attributes, while supply-side constraints and a restructuring of the supply chain are likely to boost overseas demand [1] - Aluminum production capacity has reached its ceiling, indicating potential long-term value in the sector [1] Group 2 - Precious metals are expected to benefit from the nearing interest rate cuts, with gold prices anticipated to rise amid geopolitical risks and declining currency credit [1] - Global central banks are increasing their gold purchases, with China's central bank buying gold for nine consecutive months, reflecting a growing appetite for gold as an asset [1] - The article suggests that investors without stock accounts may consider specific ETFs related to non-ferrous metals and mining themes [1]