（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 1月6日，有色60ETF（159881）涨超1.9%，机构称铝钴供需格局支撑价格弹性。 招商证券指出，工业金属行业受益于美联储降息预期改善，以黄金计价的工业金属价格处于历史底 部，叠加部分金属供需错配，多数金属价格均有上涨。下游PCB、消费电子、半导体等需求稳健增长或 有改善，储能等新能源需求旺盛。行业资本开支较长时间下滑，短中期产能扩张受限，叠加供给扰动不 断，供需错配叠加以 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is an optimistic long-term outlook for the equity market, while emphasizing the need to focus on structural issues in the short term [1] - The optimism is driven by policies aimed at "expanding domestic demand," which include support for income-driven demand, reasonable investment returns, and financial demand constrained by principal and debt [1] - The current bottleneck in the A-share market is attributed to the K-shaped economic divergence, where high-performing sectors include AI, anti-involution, and export chains, while low-performing sectors are consumer real estate [1] Group 2 - The growth in high-performing sectors is facing uncertainties, particularly regarding the sustainability of capital expenditures by AI giants, which has amplified volatility in related sectors between US and A-shares [1] - There are concerns about the effectiveness of anti-involution measures, leading to downward adjustments in market expectations [1] - In the short term, the economic structure remains unchanged, but if risks emerge in sectors like AI, the market may shift back to a dividend-focused approach, such as cash flow ETFs [1] Group 3 - Given the crowded nature of single-track trading, the company suggests focusing on the diffusion effect of AI investments and allocating resources to more certain sectors [1] - Recommended sectors include those related to power infrastructure, such as mining ETFs, non-ferrous metal ETFs, and grid ETFs [1]

12月17日有色板块表现较好，锂矿方向领涨，钨表现强势。矿业ETF（561330）上涨3.28%，有色60ETF（159881）上涨3.27%。 昨夜消息，继宁德时代枧下窝矿被关停后，"亚洲锂都"宜春又现大动作。江西宜春市自然资源局发布《关于拟公告注销27个采矿权的公示》，计划一次性 注销27宗采矿许可证，公示期至2026年1月22日。一旦公示期满且无有效异议，相关矿权将正式公告注销。宜春坐拥亚洲最大的锂云母矿储量，是国内碳 酸锂冶炼重镇。此次集中注销若最终落地，将进一步收缩锂云母供应，对国内碳酸锂价格形成强力支撑。 受消息刺激，碳酸锂期货主力合约收涨7.61%，上涨7680至108620元/吨，创2024年5月以来新高，今年累计涨近40％。A股锂矿板块亦表现活跃。 来源：国金证券 展望后市，有色板块的基本面仍然坚实，多品种或轮动普涨。美联储降息周期、供需端基本面支撑等宏微观因素共振，有色板块具备投资机会。投资者可 以关注矿业ETF（561330）和有色60ETF（159881）。 来源：WIND 近期钨价一路强势上行，钨精矿价格达42万元/吨，较年初上涨193.71%。供给面来看，在采矿山品位普遍下降，国内 ...

市场风险偏好边际修复。前日本央行副行长、政府政策小组委员若田部昌澄警告应避免过早加息，主张 先通过财政与增长政策抬升中性利率。其表态被解读为对央行加息节奏的掣肘，对市场情绪带来一定利 好。 当前市场的景气主线仍然较为清晰，包括科技（AI产业链）、反内卷以及外需拉动（制造业复苏）。 当前市场震荡，或与AI商业变现的不确定性有关，如甲骨文的营收与云业务收入均不及预期。尽管AI 的产业趋势方兴未艾，但股价的过度上涨将带来股价与基本面背离的隐忧，但AI投资带来的实物资产 扩张或能带来更具确定性的投资机会，如电力相关的有色板块，投资者可关注矿业ETF（561330）、有 色60ETF（159881）。但"高切低"或普涨行情的条件似乎仍不具备。房价仍然在下跌通道，CPI连续2月 转正，但多受到黄金价格，以及蔬菜季节性扰动的影响。目前经济体仍处于"K"型结构，部分行业景 气，但整体宏观偏冷。若景气板块出现风险，红利板块依然是避险的良好选择，如现金流ETF （159399）。总体而言，或可进行"景气+红利"均衡配置。 今日A股午后走强。上证综指上涨1.19%，报3870.28点，深证成指上涨2.40%，创业板指上涨3.39% ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a "K"-shaped economic recovery, with a recommendation for balanced asset allocation amidst market volatility [1] - The sectors with growth potential include technology (driven by AI and policy support), upstream industries (like photovoltaic and lithium), and export-related sectors due to global manufacturing recovery [1] - The report suggests monitoring specific ETFs such as the non-ferrous metals ETF (561330) and cash flow ETF (159399) for investment opportunities [1][4] Group 2 - The analysis highlights the advantages and disadvantages of various sectors, noting that the AI sector has high expectations but also high volatility and valuation concerns [2] - The report emphasizes that the resumption of the U.S. credit cycle could lead to a global manufacturing rebound, supported by increased physical investment and a potential Fed rate cut [2] - The copper industry is noted for its strong profitability, while aluminum is more affected by the domestic real estate sector, suggesting a focus on mining ETFs for investment [4]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a decline today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.51% to 3878.00 points, the Shenzhen Component Index down 0.78%, the ChiNext Index down 1.12%, and the STAR Market Index down 0.95% [1][10] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was approximately 16699.62 billion yuan, an increase of about 765.32 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10] - The market showed a low risk appetite, with 1443 stocks rising and 3876 stocks falling [1][10] Sector Performance - Dividend sectors performed well today, with transportation, non-ferrous metals, oil, mining, and coal showing positive results [1][10] - High-volatility sectors, including gaming, film and television, new energy vehicles, and computers, underperformed [1][10] - The market style showed that small-cap stocks lagged behind large-cap stocks, and growth stocks underperformed value stocks [1][10] Economic Outlook - The current macroeconomic state is characterized by a transition between old and new growth drivers, with a "K" shaped economic recovery [2][10] - Three sectors with growth potential identified are technology (AI revolution, policy support, overseas mapping), upstream anti-involution (solar, lithium batteries), and exports (global manufacturing recovery, positive overseas fiscal expectations) [2][10] - The technology and upstream sectors are still on an upward trend but carry risks due to previous significant gains [2][10] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to maintain a balanced allocation strategy, utilizing the "seesaw effect" to hedge daily volatility and optimize holding experiences [10] - Suggested ETFs for potential opportunities include non-ferrous metals 60 ETF (159881), mining ETF (561330), chemical leading ETF (516220), and industrial mother machine ETF (159667) [2][10] - As a hedging option, cash flow ETF (159399) is recommended [2][10] Bond Market Insights - The recent bond market environment shows a divergence between macro conditions and trading sentiment, with a weak nominal growth rate and a low interest rate environment supported by macro realities [7][16] - The People's Bank of China announced the purchase and sale of 50 billion yuan in government bonds, with the 30-year government bond yield rising by 2.40 basis points to 2.23% [14][16] - Financial institutions maintain a moderately optimistic outlook for the bond market in December, with a downward trend in funding rates observed since November [16][8]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the copper market is expected to experience a year-end rally, making it a suitable time for investments in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - Copper prices surged significantly due to Codelco, a Chilean state-owned copper company, offering historical high premiums to U.S. customers, which also boosted prices of gold, silver, and aluminum [1] - The mid-term supply-demand dynamics are tightening, and inflation expectations are rising, indicating that the copper market rally may begin in December [1] Group 2 - The Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects representative stocks from the non-ferrous metals industry, covering sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [1] - This index has a broad coverage and cyclical characteristics, making it suitable for investors interested in industrial metals and new energy materials [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the non-ferrous metals industry is expected to outperform in 2025, driven by weakening US dollar credit and the AI technology revolution [1] - Non-ferrous metals are anticipated to become the "oil" of a new round of industrial chain transformation, widely used in semiconductors, AI computing infrastructure, and new energy systems [1] - Significant price increases for industrial metals like COMEX copper and LME tin are expected in 2025, although the supply-demand gap is not apparent, indicating financial pricing attributes for future supply-demand relationships [1] Group 2 - By 2026, as global narratives may converge, non-ferrous metals will shift from long-term pricing to a combination of short and long-term pricing, with real demand pricing power increasing [1] - Structural support may arise from "anti-involution" policies and export demand driven by industrialization in southern countries [1] - The Non-Ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-Ferrous Index (930708), which selects representative stocks from the non-ferrous metals industry, covering sectors like copper, aluminum, lithium, and rare earths [1]

Market Overview - The market experienced a significant rebound today, with the ChiNext Index rising nearly 2% and the Shanghai Composite Index increasing by 0.87% [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 1.81 trillion, an increase of 84.4 billion compared to the previous trading day [1] AI Sector - The AI hardware and application sectors saw a resurgence, while the breeding and military industries weakened [1] - The semiconductor chip sector performed well, likely influenced by the overnight rebound in US stocks [3] - Companies like Amazon, Google, Meta, and Oracle have issued a total of $90 billion in bonds since September, indicating a high demand for financing to support their computing infrastructure [3] - The discussion around AI investment returns is expected to persist, leading to increased volatility in the sector, but the overall industry trend remains positive [3] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on the AI investment theme and consider products like communication ETFs (515880) and semiconductor equipment ETFs (159516) for exposure to the AI computing industry [3][6] - The gaming sector continues to show strength, with the gaming ETF (516010) rising by 4.14% [8] - The media sector is expected to recover due to ongoing AI industrialization and IP commercialization, with recommendations to consider gaming ETF (516010) and film ETF (516620) [9] Gold and Lithium Markets - The metal sector performed well, with various ETFs showing positive growth, particularly in gold and lithium [10] - The gold market is influenced by expectations of the December FOMC interest rate and the US economic fundamentals, with a long-term bullish outlook due to factors like the Fed's potential rate cuts [10] - The lithium market is experiencing a slight recovery after a previous surge, with supply constraints and high demand in the lithium battery sector [10]

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector has strengthened again, with lithium carbonate futures rising by 5% to exceed 100,000 yuan/ton for the first time since June 2024 [1] - Strong downstream demand in domestic energy storage and accelerated inventory depletion of lithium carbonate indicate a tight short-term supply [1] - Market sentiment is highly optimistic, driven by various catalysts including adjustments in battery shipments and positive statements from upstream lithium company executives [1] Group 2 - Short-term price volatility for lithium carbonate is expected, but a steady long-term growth trend is highly certain [1] - The continuous upward adjustment of energy storage demand expectations is likely to benefit lithium mining equities [1] - Emerging demands in sectors like AI and electricity, along with ongoing supply disruptions, suggest a promising outlook for base metals such as copper and aluminum [1]