黄金股票ETF（517400）、有色60ETF（159881）、矿业ETF（561330）、黄金ETF国泰（518800）大 跌点评 | 代码 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▲ | 5日涨跌幅 | 年初至今 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 517400 黄金股票ETF | | -10.01% | 7.63% | 37.93% | | 159881 有色60ETF | | -9.86% | 1.89% | 21.95% | | 561330 矿业ETF | | -9.83% | 2.88% | 24.44% | | 518800 黄金ETF国泰 T+0 | | -7.33% | 3.82% | 18.56% | 数据来源：Wind，截至2026/1/30 【下跌原因分析】宏观情绪退潮，黄金白银等价格巨震 昨夜全球宏观情绪退潮，今天有色板块大跌。现货黄金日内振幅近500美元，亚盘再度逼近5600美元， 但仍未能站上整数点位，并在美盘急转直下；随后又上演V形反转，收复超200美元，最终收跌0.85%， 报5377.16美元/盎司；现货白银也同步剧烈波动。 | | | | | | | ...

东兴证券指出，金属行业供需结构明显优化，行业已处于弱供给周期。在供给端，全球矿业供给在2028 年前或延续强刚性化特征。需求端，绿色低碳能源转型、新质生产力发展及算力资本周期的来临或将提 振多金属品种需求曲线右移。具体来看，稀土行业供需结构持续优化，供给端受行业整合与政策管理而 收缩，需求端受新能源汽车、机器人等推动持续增长，出口管制政策或持续提升中国稀土行业的全球定 价权。锂行业供需关系或持续改善，供应过剩状况预计将持续减缓。锑行业因供需错配或进入强景气周 期，全球锑供需缺口预计将持续放大。钼行业供需延续紧平衡，价格中枢有望上行。镁行业供需或进入 持续性紧平衡状态，"反内卷"政策或有望向该行业扩散。此外，流动性周期的切换有助于金属价格的弹 性释放，全球央行资产负债表的再扩张或推动本就供需紧平衡的小金属品种获得流动性溢价。 1月29日，有色60ETF（159881）涨超3%，连续4日迎资金净流入，金属行业供需结构明显优化。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建 ...

Group 1 - The macroeconomic environment is warming, coupled with supply constraints, leading to a broad increase in metal commodity prices [1] - For industrial metals, the imbalance in inventory regions is worsening, and the "anti-involution" in smelting is accelerating, causing copper prices to rise, with recent highs surpassing $13,000 per ton [1] - In the aluminum sector, national policies are expected to drive the integration of the alumina industry, forcing high-cost small capacities to exit, which will improve the supply-demand imbalance in the long term [1] Group 2 - The domestic CPI has rebounded to a nearly two-year high, while the PPI's year-on-year decline has narrowed, indicating a gradual improvement in domestic economic circulation and a dynamic balance in supply-demand relationships [1] - The Nonferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Nonferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of nonferrous metals, covering various sub-sectors such as industrial metals, precious metals, energy metals, and rare earths [1] - The constituent stocks of the index have a relatively large average market capitalization and a balanced industry distribution [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the rising value of "safe assets" such as gold and industrial metals during the current Kondratiev wave downturn, driven by expanding dollar credit cracks and increasing geopolitical uncertainties [1] - The West Securities report indicates that in a Kondratiev downturn, commodities experience a supercycle driven by the credit cracks of the dominant currency, with gold typically leading the price increases followed by industrial metals [1] - Historical analysis of past Kondratiev downturns shows a clear rotation pattern in commodity supercycles, where economic stagnation exacerbates wealth inequality and leads to a rise in protectionism and populism, shifting the global focus towards "safety" [1] Group 2 - Countries are beginning to establish "redundant inventories" and "local supply chains" for core industrial metals, transitioning from a "zero inventory" to a "high inventory" paradigm, which is expected to create significant structural safety premiums and drive up prices of industrial metals like copper [1] - The Colored Metal 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Colored Metal Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering various metal sectors including copper, aluminum, and gold [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the global pricing of non-ferrous metal commodities will continue to be reassessed until 2026, with specific demand and supply dynamics influencing prices [1] - The demand for electrolytic aluminum is expected to grow due to industries such as machinery, communication, and transportation, while supply is constrained by domestic limitations and slower-than-expected overseas project completions, leading to a potential increase in aluminum prices [1] - Copper demand is supported by sectors like power grids, data centers, and energy storage, alongside policy guidance from the National Development and Reform Commission aimed at reducing competition in copper smelting [1] Group 2 - The Aluminum Oxide market is facing supply contraction expectations due to domestic supply controls and Guinea, a major bauxite-producing region, nearing a loss threshold [1] - The Non-ferrous 60 ETF (159881) tracks the CSI Non-ferrous Index (930708), which selects listed companies involved in the mining, smelting, and processing of non-ferrous metals, covering sectors such as copper, gold, aluminum, rare earths, and lithium [1]

（责任编辑：张晓波 ） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供 参考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构 成投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产 品要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 1月6日，有色60ETF（159881）涨超1.9%，机构称铝钴供需格局支撑价格弹性。 招商证券指出，工业金属行业受益于美联储降息预期改善，以黄金计价的工业金属价格处于历史底 部，叠加部分金属供需错配，多数金属价格均有上涨。下游PCB、消费电子、半导体等需求稳健增长或 有改善，储能等新能源需求旺盛。行业资本开支较长时间下滑，短中期产能扩张受限，叠加供给扰动不 断，供需错配叠加以 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is an optimistic long-term outlook for the equity market, while emphasizing the need to focus on structural issues in the short term [1] - The optimism is driven by policies aimed at "expanding domestic demand," which include support for income-driven demand, reasonable investment returns, and financial demand constrained by principal and debt [1] - The current bottleneck in the A-share market is attributed to the K-shaped economic divergence, where high-performing sectors include AI, anti-involution, and export chains, while low-performing sectors are consumer real estate [1] Group 2 - The growth in high-performing sectors is facing uncertainties, particularly regarding the sustainability of capital expenditures by AI giants, which has amplified volatility in related sectors between US and A-shares [1] - There are concerns about the effectiveness of anti-involution measures, leading to downward adjustments in market expectations [1] - In the short term, the economic structure remains unchanged, but if risks emerge in sectors like AI, the market may shift back to a dividend-focused approach, such as cash flow ETFs [1] Group 3 - Given the crowded nature of single-track trading, the company suggests focusing on the diffusion effect of AI investments and allocating resources to more certain sectors [1] - Recommended sectors include those related to power infrastructure, such as mining ETFs, non-ferrous metal ETFs, and grid ETFs [1]

12月17日有色板块表现较好，锂矿方向领涨，钨表现强势。矿业ETF（561330）上涨3.28%，有色60ETF（159881）上涨3.27%。 昨夜消息，继宁德时代枧下窝矿被关停后，"亚洲锂都"宜春又现大动作。江西宜春市自然资源局发布《关于拟公告注销27个采矿权的公示》，计划一次性 注销27宗采矿许可证，公示期至2026年1月22日。一旦公示期满且无有效异议，相关矿权将正式公告注销。宜春坐拥亚洲最大的锂云母矿储量，是国内碳 酸锂冶炼重镇。此次集中注销若最终落地，将进一步收缩锂云母供应，对国内碳酸锂价格形成强力支撑。 受消息刺激，碳酸锂期货主力合约收涨7.61%，上涨7680至108620元/吨，创2024年5月以来新高，今年累计涨近40％。A股锂矿板块亦表现活跃。 来源：国金证券 展望后市，有色板块的基本面仍然坚实，多品种或轮动普涨。美联储降息周期、供需端基本面支撑等宏微观因素共振，有色板块具备投资机会。投资者可 以关注矿业ETF（561330）和有色60ETF（159881）。 来源：WIND 近期钨价一路强势上行，钨精矿价格达42万元/吨，较年初上涨193.71%。供给面来看，在采矿山品位普遍下降，国内 ...

Market Performance - The A-share market showed strength in the afternoon, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 1.19% to 3870.28 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 2.40%, and the ChiNext Index up by 3.39% [1] - The total market turnover reached 1.83 trillion yuan, an increase of 86.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - High-volatility sectors such as telecommunications, AI in the ChiNext, and non-ferrous metals performed well, while sectors like aquaculture, coal, and dividend stocks lagged behind [1] Investment Trends - Incremental capital is flowing into the market, with the CSI A500 ETF leading in turnover, totaling 45.291 billion yuan among the top five ETFs, and the overall A500 ETF turnover reaching 52.575 billion yuan, more than three times that of the CSI 300 ETF [1] - There is a noticeable increase in net subscriptions for several core broad-based products, indicating a concentrated allocation of funds towards core A-share assets after a market correction [1] Economic Outlook - The current market sentiment is moderately positive, with a marginal recovery in risk appetite [1] - The former Deputy Governor of the Bank of Japan, Makoto Nakada, warned against premature interest rate hikes, advocating for fiscal and growth policies to elevate neutral interest rates, which is interpreted as a constraint on the pace of central bank rate hikes and positively impacts market sentiment [1] Sector Analysis - The prevailing market themes include technology (AI industry chain), anti-involution, and external demand-driven manufacturing recovery [2] - The uncertainty surrounding AI commercialization, as evidenced by Oracle's revenue and cloud business falling short of expectations, contributes to market volatility [2] - Despite the promising trends in AI, concerns about stock price divergence from fundamentals exist, suggesting a focus on tangible asset expansion opportunities, particularly in the power-related non-ferrous sector [2] Real Estate and Inflation - The real estate market continues to experience a downward trend, with housing prices declining [2] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) has turned positive for two consecutive months, influenced by gold prices and seasonal fluctuations in vegetable prices [2] Debt Market - The bond market saw a slight rebound, although the weak performance in the fourth quarter was more pronounced than expected [2] - Long-term bonds, particularly 30-year government bonds, are approaching post-tax mortgage rates, indicating a gradual recovery in their investment value [2] - The 10-year government bond remains a stabilizing force in the bond market during this adjustment phase, highlighting its robust characteristics [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint indicates a "K"-shaped economic recovery, with a recommendation for balanced asset allocation amidst market volatility [1] - The sectors with growth potential include technology (driven by AI and policy support), upstream industries (like photovoltaic and lithium), and export-related sectors due to global manufacturing recovery [1] - The report suggests monitoring specific ETFs such as the non-ferrous metals ETF (561330) and cash flow ETF (159399) for investment opportunities [1][4] Group 2 - The analysis highlights the advantages and disadvantages of various sectors, noting that the AI sector has high expectations but also high volatility and valuation concerns [2] - The report emphasizes that the resumption of the U.S. credit cycle could lead to a global manufacturing rebound, supported by increased physical investment and a potential Fed rate cut [2] - The copper industry is noted for its strong profitability, while aluminum is more affected by the domestic real estate sector, suggesting a focus on mining ETFs for investment [4]