Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on Xindong Company (02400) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 at 28%/23%/14% and adjusted net profit growth at 94%/31%/24% [1] Group 1: Game Promotion and TapTap's Value - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license supply, leading to increased sales expense ratios, with TapTap emerging as a significant promotional channel [1] - TapTap's online promotion service revenue for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 976 million, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1] - TapTap offers low or no revenue sharing, making it developer-friendly, and has become a vital promotional channel for small and independent games due to its specialized and professional nature [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The number of game licenses issued in China increased by 25% year-on-year, with a total of 1,195 licenses from January to September 2025, enhancing promotional demand [2] - TapTap has over 240,000 registered developers and 300,000 games launched, with an average monthly active user count of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025 [2] - AI technology is expected to empower game development, benefiting TapTap by enhancing content supply and promoting a more equitable creative environment [2] Group 3: Validation of Xindong's Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The company has successfully validated its strategic adjustments since 2022, focusing on core product categories and enhancing efficiency [3] - Successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" demonstrate the company's ability to develop enduring games through resource focus and continuous updates [3] - Upcoming game releases, including the strategy card game "Iser" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicate a strong pipeline for future growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the growth potential of TapTap platform driven by the resumption of game license approvals and AI-enabled game development, alongside the strategic adjustments in the company's self-developed game pipeline [1][2]. Group 1: TapTap Platform Value - TapTap has become a significant channel for game promotion, with online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1]. - The platform offers low or no revenue sharing, making it friendly for small and independent developers, and has emerged as a vital promotional channel due to the fragmentation of user time and the rise of vertical communities [1]. - TapTap provides comprehensive services including analysis, testing, and marketing promotion, enhancing its value to developers [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The developer-user flywheel effect is established, with over 240,000 developers and 300,000 games launched, and an average monthly active user (MAU) of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 37% in user advertising ARPU [2]. - The total number of game licenses issued in 2025 reached 1,195, a 25% year-on-year increase, boosting the demand for promotion [2]. - The strategic expansion into multi-platform and international markets, along with AI-enabled game development, is expected to enhance TapTap's revenue potential, with projections estimating revenue could reach 5 billion by 2030 [2]. Group 3: Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The self-developed game strategy has shown positive results since 2024, with a focus on core categories and efficient resource allocation, leading to successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" [3]. - The company has demonstrated the ability to develop enduring games through focused resources, continuous optimization, and frequent updates, with successful overseas contributions [3]. - Future game pipeline includes promising titles such as the strategy card game "Ither" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicating a solid reserve of upcoming products [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the "Content + Platform" flywheel effect, highlighting the value of the TapTap platform and the company's self-developed games [7][10]. - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license supply, which, combined with changes in distribution channels, positions TapTap as a significant promotional channel for games [20][27]. - The company's self-developed game capabilities are gradually being validated, with successful titles contributing to revenue growth [51]. Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025E at 6,431 million RMB, 2026E at 7,927 million RMB, and 2027E at 9,059 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [6][8]. - Adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be 1,702 million RMB in 2025E, 2,226 million RMB in 2026E, and 2,760 million RMB in 2027E, with significant growth rates of 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [6][8]. - The report employs the SOTP valuation method, estimating the company's market value at 549 billion HKD [8]. TapTap Business Growth Drivers - The growth of TapTap is driven by an increase in domestic game licenses, advancements in self-developed games, and expansion into PC and international markets [9][35]. - The platform has established a developer-user flywheel effect, with over 240,000 developers and 300,000 games launched, leading to a significant increase in monthly active users (MAU) [35][41]. - The report anticipates that TapTap's advertising revenue could exceed 5 billion RMB by 2030, driven by user growth and improved monetization strategies [11][49]. Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The company has successfully adjusted its product cycle since 2024, focusing on strong game categories and validating its strategic direction [51]. - Upcoming titles such as "伊瑟" and "心动小镇" are expected to contribute positively to the company's pipeline and revenue [51][40].

Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.118 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.628 billion, up 11.41% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.353 billion, a growth of 3.46%, and a net profit of 518 million, increasing by 21.57% [1] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend and share repurchase amounting to 426 million in 2024, representing 26.18% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Financial Performance - The net profit margin has been steadily increasing, with figures of 24.28%, 27.52%, 34.03%, and 31.82% from 2021 to 2024, and reaching 38.30% in Q1 2025 [2] - The increase in net profit margin is attributed to a decrease in management and R&D expense ratios, indicating improved management efficiency and AI-driven productivity [2] - The overseas market revenue saw a significant increase of 221.48% in 2024, showcasing the company's successful international expansion [2] Product Development and Innovation - The company has a rich pipeline of self-developed products, including titles like "King of Legends 2" and "Tomb Raider: Journey," with several games set to release in 2024 [3] - The self-developed AI model "Xingyi" enhances game development automation, significantly reducing the time required for animation and map creation, thus improving overall development efficiency [3] - The AI model's application has decreased animation generation time from weeks to seconds and map creation time to an average of 3 minutes per map [3] Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong investment rating, projecting revenues of 6.039 billion, 6.945 billion, and 7.779 billion for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 12% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 2.103 billion, 2.398 billion, and 2.629 billion, with growth rates of 29%, 14%, and 10% respectively [4] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.0, 14.9, and 13.6 times, respectively, supporting the strong investment recommendation [4]