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申万宏源:首予心动公司(02400)“买入”评级 “内容+平台”飞轮效应显现
Zhi Tong Cai Jing· 2025-10-02 01:36
TapTap的成长驱动 国内版号提升、自研进步+PC端及海外,长期看AI平权。当前TapTap开发者-用户的飞轮效应已经形 成:TapTap目前已入驻开发者24万+,上线游戏30万+;25H1中国版APP平均MAU达43.6百万,25H1用户 广告ARPUYoY+37%。增长驱动:1)25年1-9月版号总计1195个,同比增长25%,更多产品上线提升推广 需求。2)心动自研游戏进步利好TapTap平台价值提升(独家产品吸引用户,同时形成对其他开发者的示 范效应),同时TapTap反哺自研游戏。3)TapTap积极战略拓展多端化与国际版。4)AI赋能游戏开发,实现 创作平权,内容供给侧繁荣利好TapTap。该行测算2030年TapTap广告量价齐升后收入规模有望达到50 亿。 心动自研游戏能力体系逐步验证 1)24年以来产品周期上行验证前期研发调整思路正确:22年后公司战略层面果断收缩版图、降本增效, 产品研发公司聚焦自身强势品类,优中选优。黄希威回归担任海外发行负责人,走通全球发行,海外持 续贡献增量。《火炬之光》《麦芬》《心动小镇》《伊瑟》持续验证战略正确。2)《小镇》《火炬》验 证开发长青游戏的能力:资源 ...
心动公司(02400.HK):“内容+平台”飞轮效应显现
Ge Long Hui· 2025-09-30 20:20
心动自研游戏能力体系逐步验证:1)24 年以来产品周期上行验证前期研发调整思路正确:22 年后公司 战略层面果断收缩版图、降本增效,产品研发公司聚焦自身强势品类,优中选优。黄希威回归担任海外 发行负责人,走通全球发行,海外持续贡献增量。《火炬之光》《麦芬》《心动小镇》《伊瑟》持续验 证战略正确。2)《小镇》《火炬》验证开发长青游戏的能力:资源聚焦优势品类+持续调优+高频更新 +出海。3)梳理后续管线,心动新游戏仍有确定性储备:二次元策略卡牌手游《伊瑟》国服9 月上线、 后续储备《心动小镇》国际服、首款开放世界MMO《仙境传说RO:守护永恒的爱2》。 首次覆盖,给予"买入"评级。我们预计,公司25-27 年收入64.31/79.27/90.59 亿元,同比增长 28%/23%/14%;经调整归母净利润17.02/22.26/27.60 亿元,同比增长94%/31%/24%。SOTP 估值法下对 应港股市值549 亿港币,首次覆盖,给予"买入"评级。 风险提示:游戏行业监管政策收紧;游戏自研进度不及预期;游戏社区竞争格局恶化。 从游戏推广变革看TapTap 的价值。游戏行业随着版号供给景气恢复,叠加渠道变迁,销售 ...
心动公司(02400):“内容+平台”飞轮效应显现(心动公司深度之二)
Shenwan Hongyuan Securities· 2025-09-30 12:57
上 市 公 司 传媒 2025 年 09 月 30 日 心动公司 (02400) ——"内容+平台"飞轮效应显现(心动公司深度之二) 资料来源:Bloomberg 报告原因:首次覆盖 相关研究 买入(首次评级) | 市场数据: | 2025 年 09 月 30 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价(港币) | 81.25 | | 恒生中国企业指数 | 9555.33 | | 52 周最高/最低(港币) | 89.40/19.78 | | H 股市值(亿港币) | 402.07 | | 流通 H 股(百万股) | 494.86 | | 汇率(人民币/港币) | 0.9143 | 一年内股价与基准指数对比走势: -22% 478% 09/30 10/31 11/30 12/31 01/31 02/28 03/31 04/30 05/31 06/30 07/31 08/31 HSCEI 心动公司 研究支持 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 联系人 张淇元 A0230124080001 zhangqy@swsresearch.com 财务数据及盈利预测 | ...
恺英网络(002517):AI陪伴游戏上线在即 25Q1增速超预期
Xin Lang Cai Jing· 2025-05-02 00:42
Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 5.118 billion in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 19.16%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.628 billion, up 11.41% [1] - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.353 billion, a growth of 3.46%, and a net profit of 518 million, increasing by 21.57% [1] - The company plans to distribute a total cash dividend and share repurchase amounting to 426 million in 2024, representing 26.18% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [1] Financial Performance - The net profit margin has been steadily increasing, with figures of 24.28%, 27.52%, 34.03%, and 31.82% from 2021 to 2024, and reaching 38.30% in Q1 2025 [2] - The increase in net profit margin is attributed to a decrease in management and R&D expense ratios, indicating improved management efficiency and AI-driven productivity [2] - The overseas market revenue saw a significant increase of 221.48% in 2024, showcasing the company's successful international expansion [2] Product Development and Innovation - The company has a rich pipeline of self-developed products, including titles like "King of Legends 2" and "Tomb Raider: Journey," with several games set to release in 2024 [3] - The self-developed AI model "Xingyi" enhances game development automation, significantly reducing the time required for animation and map creation, thus improving overall development efficiency [3] - The AI model's application has decreased animation generation time from weeks to seconds and map creation time to an average of 3 minutes per map [3] Future Outlook - The company maintains a strong investment rating, projecting revenues of 6.039 billion, 6.945 billion, and 7.779 billion for 2025 to 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 12% respectively [4] - Expected net profits for the same period are 2.103 billion, 2.398 billion, and 2.629 billion, with growth rates of 29%, 14%, and 10% respectively [4] - The projected price-to-earnings ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 17.0, 14.9, and 13.6 times, respectively, supporting the strong investment recommendation [4]