智通财经APP获悉，国金证券发布研报称，心动公司（02400）基于其自研游戏管线与平台生态的成长 潜力，首次覆盖给予"买入"评级，目标价103.2港元，作为全球游戏开发商与发行商，凭借《出发吧麦 亩》等自研精品的成功及TapTap平台用户与商业化的持续增长，驱动业绩显著提升。 国金证券主要观点如下： TapTap平台成长及商业化空间广阔 (1)TapTap具备"用户-游戏"双边效应，零分成政策及可观用户规模吸引众多优质游戏上架并在TapTap平 台推广，越来越多的优质第一方和第三方产品供给吸引更多的游戏用户成为平台用户;(2)全球范围内特 别是国内iOS应用生态开放的推进，有望进一步打开TapTap成长空间;(3)TapTap PC版的推出，有助于进 一步拓展多端游戏、端游、独立游戏等用户群体和市场;(4)TapAND业务已跑通，且处于起步阶段，市 场空间广阔;(5)25H1 TapTap收入10.1亿( yoy+37.6% )，该行预计2025/2026/2027年，TapTap收入分别同比 +35.5%/+25.0%/+14.6%。 盈利预测、估值和评级 随着收入规模增长带动经营杠杆效应释放，公司归母净利 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as a first-time coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned for growth through a dual engine of self-developed games and the TapTap platform, which serves as a comprehensive game community and distribution platform [1][2]. - The self-developed games have shown strong performance, with titles like "Let's Go Muffin" and "Heart Town" driving revenue growth, while the TapTap platform is expected to expand significantly due to its user base and monetization potential [2][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a global game developer and publisher with a diverse portfolio, including popular titles such as "Let's Go Muffin," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite." It ranks 22nd among mobile game publishers in China and is expected to enter the global top 100 by October 2025 [1]. Investment Logic - **Self-Developed Game Capability**: The company has consistently validated its ability to develop successful games, with a strong product matrix and ongoing growth from new releases and international expansions [2][12]. - **TapTap Platform Growth**: The platform benefits from a user-game dual effect, with a zero-revenue-sharing policy attracting quality games and users. The introduction of a PC version and the expansion of the iOS ecosystem are expected to further enhance growth [2][34][39]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve significant profit growth, with net profits expected to reach 1.7 billion, 2.1 billion, and 2.55 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 111.2%, 24.3%, and 20.0% [2][46]. - The target price is set at 103.2 HKD, based on a 22x PE ratio for 2026, indicating a strong valuation relative to industry peers [2][50]. Revenue Projections - Total revenue is expected to grow from 3.39 billion CNY in 2023 to 8.84 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.0% from 2025 to 2027 [46][47]. - Game revenue is projected to increase significantly, driven by successful titles and new game launches, while information service revenue from TapTap is also expected to grow robustly [46][47]. Cost and Margin Expectations - The company anticipates improving gross margins, with overall gross margins projected to rise from 69.4% in 2024 to 76.3% by 2027, driven by a higher proportion of self-developed games [48][49].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the media industry is "Positive (Maintain)" [1] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the strong performance of leading mobile games in overseas markets, with notable revenue increases and new game launches driving industry growth [3][29] - The integration of AI in content creation, particularly in AI-generated comics and advertising, is highlighted as a key area for investment, with significant advancements in domestic AI models [3][29] - The report suggests a continued focus on high-growth areas such as AI applications, gaming, and IP collaborations, recommending specific companies for investment [3][29] Industry Data Overview - The game "Delta Force" ranked first in the iOS free game chart in mainland China, while "Honor of Kings" topped the iOS revenue chart [9][13] - The film "Predator: Hunting Grounds" achieved the highest box office for the week, grossing 0.36 billion [25][29] Industry News Summary - OpenAI has reached 1 billion monthly active users, enhancing its product distribution capabilities [25] - The gaming market saw continued growth in October, with Bilibili's game "Escape from Duckkov" surpassing 3 million in sales [29] - The report notes the ongoing high growth in the comic market, with significant collaborations involving popular artists [25][29] Company Performance - Heartbeat Company saw a 30% increase in global revenue in October, with its game "Etheria: Restart" contributing significantly [3][29] - Century Huatong's games "Whiteout Survival" and "Kingshot" also reported strong revenue growth, with a 6% increase in October [3][29] - Bilibili's self-developed game "Escape from Duckkov" achieved sales of over 3 million copies [3][29]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - The gaming industry is experiencing an unexpected upturn, driven by the release of new products and increasing demand from young and female users for innovative game categories such as SLG combined with simulation management, match-three, synthesis types, and female-oriented games [1][2][3] Core Insights and Arguments - AI technology plays a crucial role in game development, innovation in gameplay, and commercialization, leading to cost reduction and efficiency improvements. Major companies and leading startups are developing native AI games, which will open up future commercialization opportunities [1][5] - The recent market fluctuations provide a favorable opportunity for reallocation within the gaming sector, with core company valuations dropping to around 20 times earnings or even lower, suggesting a strategic increase in investment in companies with strong performance and rich new product pipelines [1][6] - Companies like Giant Network and Century Huatong are showing stable growth through successful game operations and IP collaborations, with titles like "Supernatural Action Group" and "White Out Survival" leading in revenue [1][9] Notable Companies and Products - **Giant Network**: The game "Supernatural Action Group" has maintained stable growth through operational activities and IP collaborations, positioning it as a potential evergreen title [1][9] - **Century Huatong**: Its subsidiary, Point Point Interactive, has two games, "White Out Survival" and "King Shot," that dominate the Chinese mobile game revenue rankings, with "King Shot" achieving a 5% month-on-month revenue increase in September, surpassing $100 million [1][9] - **Xindong Company**: The new title "Ise" is steadily rising in rankings, aided by its channel advantages on the TapTap platform, which enhances daily active users (DAU) and revenue [1][9][10] AI Integration in Gaming - Companies like Kaiying Network are planning to launch AI-related businesses, including the commercialization of their AI game development platform, Zoom, and AI companion applications, which are expected to generate additional revenue in Q4 [4][11] - The integration of AI in gaming is anticipated to enhance user engagement and innovate payment models, with many companies reporting significant advancements in AI's role across development, operation, and commercialization [5][11] Future Outlook - The gaming sector's growth cycle is expected to exceed expectations, with AI's influence on game development and commercialization being a key driver [3][12] - Companies with strong legacy products and the potential for new product cycles are viewed positively for future growth, particularly those with proactive AI strategies [12][13] Investment Recommendations - Investors are advised to focus on companies with robust product portfolios and innovative AI applications, including Xindong, Kaiying, Giant Network, Tencent, and NetEase, as they are likely to experience significant growth and performance elasticity starting in 2026 [12][13] Additional Trends in AI Applications - The AI application landscape is diversifying, with significant advancements in content creation, particularly in video generation, and the emergence of vertical market applications [14][15] - Investors are encouraged to explore opportunities in AI-driven sectors such as advertising, social media, e-commerce, education, and finance, leveraging the ongoing market adjustments [15]

Core Insights - The year 2024 marks the first year of profitability for Xindong after three consecutive years of losses, driven by the success of self-developed new games like "Departure Muffin" and "Xindong Town," along with the earlier overseas launch of "Lily of the Valley" [1] - The company has adopted a more focused approach this year, emphasizing the release of the turn-based strategy card RPG "Etheria: Restart," which supports multi-platform play [1][3] Game Performance - "Etheria: Restart" launched internationally in June, generating a revenue of 69.33 million yuan in its first month, excluding PC data [3][19] - The game was released in six major East Asian T1 markets on September 25, achieving a revenue of 37.1 million yuan within 12 days, slightly surpassing the international version's performance [6][15] - As of October 9, the game maintained strong rankings in the iOS free and revenue charts across various East Asian markets, with notable positions in Taiwan, Hong Kong, and Japan [9][11] Market Trends - The game has shown a cumulative download of approximately 1.435 million in the new markets, with significant contributions from China, Taiwan, and Japan [13] - The daily revenue peaked at 4.06 million yuan shortly after launch but has since stabilized around 2.8 million yuan [15] - The average revenue per download (RPD) reached 27.6 yuan, slightly lower than the international version's 34.5 yuan [15] Long-term Outlook - The international version of "Etheria: Restart" has demonstrated stable monthly revenue of around 10 million yuan after four months, indicating potential for long-term operation [16][23] - The company plans to enhance its esports ecosystem, aiming to establish "the first IP in turn-based esports," with various tournaments already held and more planned for the future [25][27] Financial Performance - Xindong's financial report for the first half of the year shows significant growth, with total revenue reaching 3.08 billion yuan, a 38.8% increase year-on-year [36] - The top five revenue-generating games include "Departure Muffin" and "Xindong Town," indicating a shift towards newer titles contributing to overall revenue [38]

Summary of the Conference Call for Xindong Company Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Xindong Company - **Industry**: Gaming Industry in China - **Key Platform**: TapTap, a third-party game community and distribution platform Core Insights and Arguments - Xindong Company has established a full industry chain layout through popular games like "Xindong Town" and the TapTap platform, enhancing user engagement and payment levels, leading to long-term value growth [2][10] - TapTap operates on a non-revenue-sharing model, focusing on community interaction and precise recommendations to boost user stickiness, which in turn supports game distribution and operation [2][5] - The Chinese gaming market has shifted towards innovation-driven growth, with players demanding higher quality and experience in games. Xindong Company is focusing on independent games and innovative categories to build a differentiated advantage for long-term growth [2][6] - The company is optimizing team size and terminating non-core projects to improve resource efficiency, marking a shift from extensive expansion to pursuing certain outcomes, resulting in a slowdown in R&D expense growth [2][9] Key Strategies and Developments - Xindong Company employs a "channel plus product" dual-driven model, enhancing self-developed capabilities and launching hit products that significantly contribute to revenue and user engagement [3][10] - TapTap serves as a core component of Xindong's ecosystem, providing distribution and social interaction, and generating revenue through advertising [4][11] - The company has seen a significant increase in its stake in Shanghai Yiwang (TapTap's parent company) due to changes in shareholder structure, with Xindong's ownership approaching 89% [7] Market Trends and Company Response - The gaming market in China is transitioning from population-driven growth to innovation-driven growth, with a focus on creating differentiated experiences through innovative content [6][18] - Xindong Company is responding to these changes by focusing on independent games and innovative products to attract specific user groups and establish a competitive edge [6][20] Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Xindong's self-developed products have performed exceptionally well, with titles like "Shu'an Maifen" and "Xindong Town" exceeding expectations and driving user numbers to historical highs [26][27] - The development prospects for the TapTap platform are promising, with a strong user base and effective game distribution, indicating significant growth potential for the company's gaming business [27] Additional Insights - TapTap's advertising business shows resilience and commercial potential, with a strong performance even during market downturns [23][24] - The platform has room for expanding advertising space, which could further enhance revenue generation [24] - Xindong Company is exploring additional monetization models beyond gaming ads, including cloud gaming and developer services [25][26] Conclusion - Xindong Company is positioned as a key player in the Chinese gaming industry, leveraging its unique platform and innovative strategies to drive growth and enhance user engagement, making it a noteworthy entity in the market [27]

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on Xindong Company (02400) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 at 28%/23%/14% and adjusted net profit growth at 94%/31%/24% [1] Group 1: Game Promotion and TapTap's Value - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license supply, leading to increased sales expense ratios, with TapTap emerging as a significant promotional channel [1] - TapTap's online promotion service revenue for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 976 million, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1] - TapTap offers low or no revenue sharing, making it developer-friendly, and has become a vital promotional channel for small and independent games due to its specialized and professional nature [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The number of game licenses issued in China increased by 25% year-on-year, with a total of 1,195 licenses from January to September 2025, enhancing promotional demand [2] - TapTap has over 240,000 registered developers and 300,000 games launched, with an average monthly active user count of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025 [2] - AI technology is expected to empower game development, benefiting TapTap by enhancing content supply and promoting a more equitable creative environment [2] Group 3: Validation of Xindong's Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The company has successfully validated its strategic adjustments since 2022, focusing on core product categories and enhancing efficiency [3] - Successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" demonstrate the company's ability to develop enduring games through resource focus and continuous updates [3] - Upcoming game releases, including the strategy card game "Iser" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicate a strong pipeline for future growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the growth potential of TapTap platform driven by the resumption of game license approvals and AI-enabled game development, alongside the strategic adjustments in the company's self-developed game pipeline [1][2]. Group 1: TapTap Platform Value - TapTap has become a significant channel for game promotion, with online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1]. - The platform offers low or no revenue sharing, making it friendly for small and independent developers, and has emerged as a vital promotional channel due to the fragmentation of user time and the rise of vertical communities [1]. - TapTap provides comprehensive services including analysis, testing, and marketing promotion, enhancing its value to developers [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The developer-user flywheel effect is established, with over 240,000 developers and 300,000 games launched, and an average monthly active user (MAU) of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 37% in user advertising ARPU [2]. - The total number of game licenses issued in 2025 reached 1,195, a 25% year-on-year increase, boosting the demand for promotion [2]. - The strategic expansion into multi-platform and international markets, along with AI-enabled game development, is expected to enhance TapTap's revenue potential, with projections estimating revenue could reach 5 billion by 2030 [2]. Group 3: Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The self-developed game strategy has shown positive results since 2024, with a focus on core categories and efficient resource allocation, leading to successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" [3]. - The company has demonstrated the ability to develop enduring games through focused resources, continuous optimization, and frequent updates, with successful overseas contributions [3]. - Future game pipeline includes promising titles such as the strategy card game "Ither" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicating a solid reserve of upcoming products [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [8][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the "Content + Platform" flywheel effect, highlighting the growth potential of the TapTap platform and the company's self-developed games [7][10]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 64.31 billion, 79.27 billion, and 90.59 billion RMB for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [8][3]. - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 17.02 billion, 22.26 billion, and 27.60 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [8][3]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,389 million RMB - 2024: 5,012 million RMB - 2025E: 6,431 million RMB - 2026E: 7,927 million RMB - 2027E: 9,059 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at -1%, 48%, 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [6]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: -34 million RMB - 2024: 877 million RMB - 2025E: 1,702 million RMB - 2026E: 2,226 million RMB - 2027E: 2,760 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 93%, 2670%, 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [6]. Market Dynamics - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license issuance, with a total of 1,195 licenses issued in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25% [11][31]. - The report notes that TapTap is becoming an increasingly important channel for game promotion, with its online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million RMB in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [7][23]. - The growth of TapTap is driven by improvements in domestic licensing, advancements in self-developed games, and strategic expansions into PC and international markets [11][30]. Competitive Advantage - TapTap's low revenue-sharing model (maximum 5% for paid games and free-to-play games incur no fees) is highlighted as a significant advantage for attracting developers, especially independent and small developers [25][10]. - The platform has established a strong community and content ecosystem, differentiating itself from traditional app stores and social media platforms [10][25]. - The report suggests that the market has not fully recognized the value and potential of the TapTap platform, which is well-positioned to capitalize on the evolving gaming landscape [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the "Content + Platform" flywheel effect, highlighting the value of the TapTap platform and the company's self-developed games [7][10]. - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license supply, which, combined with changes in distribution channels, positions TapTap as a significant promotional channel for games [20][27]. - The company's self-developed game capabilities are gradually being validated, with successful titles contributing to revenue growth [51]. Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025E at 6,431 million RMB, 2026E at 7,927 million RMB, and 2027E at 9,059 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [6][8]. - Adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be 1,702 million RMB in 2025E, 2,226 million RMB in 2026E, and 2,760 million RMB in 2027E, with significant growth rates of 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [6][8]. - The report employs the SOTP valuation method, estimating the company's market value at 549 billion HKD [8]. TapTap Business Growth Drivers - The growth of TapTap is driven by an increase in domestic game licenses, advancements in self-developed games, and expansion into PC and international markets [9][35]. - The platform has established a developer-user flywheel effect, with over 240,000 developers and 300,000 games launched, leading to a significant increase in monthly active users (MAU) [35][41]. - The report anticipates that TapTap's advertising revenue could exceed 5 billion RMB by 2030, driven by user growth and improved monetization strategies [11][49]. Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The company has successfully adjusted its product cycle since 2024, focusing on strong game categories and validating its strategic direction [51]. - Upcoming titles such as "伊瑟" and "心动小镇" are expected to contribute positively to the company's pipeline and revenue [51][40].