TapTap的成长驱动 国内版号提升、自研进步+PC端及海外，长期看AI平权。当前TapTap开发者-用户的飞轮效应已经形 成：TapTap目前已入驻开发者24万+，上线游戏30万+;25H1中国版APP平均MAU达43.6百万，25H1用户 广告ARPUYoY+37%。增长驱动：1)25年1-9月版号总计1195个，同比增长25%，更多产品上线提升推广 需求。2)心动自研游戏进步利好TapTap平台价值提升(独家产品吸引用户，同时形成对其他开发者的示 范效应)，同时TapTap反哺自研游戏。3)TapTap积极战略拓展多端化与国际版。4)AI赋能游戏开发，实现 创作平权，内容供给侧繁荣利好TapTap。该行测算2030年TapTap广告量价齐升后收入规模有望达到50 亿。 心动自研游戏能力体系逐步验证 1)24年以来产品周期上行验证前期研发调整思路正确：22年后公司战略层面果断收缩版图、降本增效， 产品研发公司聚焦自身强势品类，优中选优。黄希威回归担任海外发行负责人，走通全球发行，海外持 续贡献增量。《火炬之光》《麦芬》《心动小镇》《伊瑟》持续验证战略正确。2)《小镇》《火炬》验 证开发长青游戏的能力：资源 ...

心动自研游戏能力体系逐步验证：1）24 年以来产品周期上行验证前期研发调整思路正确：22 年后公司 战略层面果断收缩版图、降本增效，产品研发公司聚焦自身强势品类，优中选优。黄希威回归担任海外 发行负责人，走通全球发行，海外持续贡献增量。《火炬之光》《麦芬》《心动小镇》《伊瑟》持续验 证战略正确。2）《小镇》《火炬》验证开发长青游戏的能力：资源聚焦优势品类+持续调优+高频更新 +出海。3）梳理后续管线，心动新游戏仍有确定性储备：二次元策略卡牌手游《伊瑟》国服9 月上线、 后续储备《心动小镇》国际服、首款开放世界MMO《仙境传说RO：守护永恒的爱2》。 首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。我们预计，公司25-27 年收入64.31/79.27/90.59 亿元，同比增长 28%/23%/14%；经调整归母净利润17.02/22.26/27.60 亿元，同比增长94%/31%/24%。SOTP 估值法下对 应港股市值549 亿港币，首次覆盖，给予"买入"评级。 风险提示：游戏行业监管政策收紧；游戏自研进度不及预期；游戏社区竞争格局恶化。 从游戏推广变革看TapTap 的价值。游戏行业随着版号供给景气恢复，叠加渠道变迁，销售 ...

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [8][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the "Content + Platform" flywheel effect, highlighting the growth potential of the TapTap platform and the company's self-developed games [7][10]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 64.31 billion, 79.27 billion, and 90.59 billion RMB for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [8][3]. - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 17.02 billion, 22.26 billion, and 27.60 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [8][3]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,389 million RMB - 2024: 5,012 million RMB - 2025E: 6,431 million RMB - 2026E: 7,927 million RMB - 2027E: 9,059 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at -1%, 48%, 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [6]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: -34 million RMB - 2024: 877 million RMB - 2025E: 1,702 million RMB - 2026E: 2,226 million RMB - 2027E: 2,760 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 93%, 2670%, 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [6]. Market Dynamics - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license issuance, with a total of 1,195 licenses issued in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25% [11][31]. - The report notes that TapTap is becoming an increasingly important channel for game promotion, with its online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million RMB in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [7][23]. - The growth of TapTap is driven by improvements in domestic licensing, advancements in self-developed games, and strategic expansions into PC and international markets [11][30]. Competitive Advantage - TapTap's low revenue-sharing model (maximum 5% for paid games and free-to-play games incur no fees) is highlighted as a significant advantage for attracting developers, especially independent and small developers [25][10]. - The platform has established a strong community and content ecosystem, differentiating itself from traditional app stores and social media platforms [10][25]. - The report suggests that the market has not fully recognized the value and potential of the TapTap platform, which is well-positioned to capitalize on the evolving gaming landscape [10][11].

Summary of the Conference Call for Xindong Company Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on Xindong Company, specifically its gaming distribution platform TapTap, which differentiates itself from Apple and Android app stores by not charging channel fees and instead generating revenue through value-added services [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Growth Despite MAU Decline**: In 2023, TapTap's Monthly Active Users (MAU) decreased by 20%, yet revenue increased by 30%, indicating that Daily Active Users (DAU) and average daily usage time are more critical for revenue growth [6][2]. - **Future Revenue Projections**: TapTap is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in revenue over the next three years, driven by DAU growth and increased user engagement [2][7]. - **PC Strategy Launch**: TapTap's PC strategy is set to launch in April 2025, aiming to leverage overlapping user profiles and the revival of the PC gaming market, while maintaining a no-commission policy to enhance competitiveness [2][9][10]. - **Stock Price Surge**: Xindong Company's stock price rose significantly from 7 yuan in 2024 to over 80 yuan in 2025, attributed to a successful product cycle, improved overseas distribution capabilities, and refined publishing strategies [11][12]. - **Mutual Empowerment of Games and Platform**: Xindong Company utilizes its self-developed games to attract users to the TapTap platform, which in turn enhances user retention and drives traffic to other products, creating a flywheel effect for overall growth [13][2]. Additional Important Insights - **Advertising Revenue Model**: TapTap's advertising revenue model relies on four key metrics: DAU, average daily usage time, ad loading rate, and ad unit price. DAU is projected to grow from 5-6 million to 7-8 million in the next three years [4][5]. - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: The cost structure is manageable, with personnel salaries and server bandwidth being the main costs. This allows for significant profit growth alongside revenue expansion [7][9]. - **Competitive Advantages**: Xindong Company's competitive advantages include its unique vertical distribution platform, TapTap, and the management's strong understanding and execution of gaming concepts, making it a company to watch for long-term growth [15][16]. Conclusion - Xindong Company is positioned for robust growth in the gaming industry, with a strong focus on its TapTap platform and strategic initiatives that leverage market trends and user engagement. The company's ability to adapt and innovate will be crucial in maintaining its competitive edge and achieving its financial targets in the coming years.

Summary of Xindong Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xindong Company - **Industry**: Gaming and Information Services Key Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue Performance**: Xindong Company's gaming business revenue exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in overseas markets for "Ragnarok" and significant contributions from "Torchlight" and "Xindong Town" [2][4] 2. **Profit Improvement**: The company saw a notable improvement in profit margins, with the gaming business gross margin increasing due to a higher proportion of overseas business, which has a better margin [2][4] 3. **Future Growth Potential**: Xindong Company has high growth certainty, with upcoming launches of "Iser" in multiple regions and the overseas version of "Xindong Town" expected by the end of 2025, which could significantly contribute to revenue [2][5] 4. **TapTap Platform**: The TapTap platform benefits from algorithmic recommendations and AI capabilities, enhancing ad targeting and improving ROI for advertisers, suggesting it should be valued as a vertical gaming community or tech platform [2][6] 5. **Revenue Forecast Adjustments**: The company raised its gaming business revenue forecast for 2025 by 32.4%, with similar adjustments for 2026 and 2027 nearing 35%, while also increasing overall gross margin by 4 percentage points [2][7] 6. **Profit Structure Changes**: The profit structure is shifting, with TapTap's profit growth potentially surpassing that of the gaming business, indicating a need for a distributed valuation approach [2][12][13] 7. **Market Valuation**: Using a distributed valuation method, the target market value is approximately 37 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 81 HKD, indicating further upside potential from current stock prices [3][14] 8. **Product Line Clarity**: The product line for the next two years is clear, with "Iser" contributing in Q4 2025 and "Xindong Town" expected to generate significant revenue in 2026 [10][26] 9. **Success Rate of Products**: The high success rate of Xindong's products is attributed to systematic resource investment and management optimization, leading to successful launches like "Xindong Town" and "Iser" [11] 10. **TapTap's Unique Business Model**: TapTap operates as both a game community and distribution channel, with a zero-revenue-sharing model that attracts many mid-tier companies, thus reducing their costs [19] 11. **Advertising Revenue Growth**: TapTap's advertising revenue is closely linked to its monthly active users (MAU), with a 33% increase in ad revenue despite a decline in MAU in 2023 [20] 12. **Profitability of TapTap**: In 2024, TapTap generated 1.5 billion RMB in revenue with a net profit exceeding 400 million RMB, and the net profit margin is expected to rise to around 40% in 2025 [25] 13. **Overall Performance Outlook**: The overall performance outlook for Xindong Company remains optimistic, with adjusted earnings forecasts reflecting strong growth potential driven by successful game launches and the profitability of the TapTap platform [27] Other Important Insights - **Market Discrepancies**: There are significant discrepancies in market valuation, with traditional views comparing Xindong to larger gaming companies like Tencent and NetEase, which may not accurately reflect its current growth trajectory [8][9] - **Focus on Key Projects**: Key projects to watch include "Ragnarok" and "Torchlight," with "Ragnarok" performing particularly well in Southeast Asia [15] - **User Engagement Strategies**: "Xindong Town" has maintained user engagement through frequent events, contributing to its strong performance in 2025 [16][17] - **Valuation Perspectives**: Different viewpoints exist regarding the valuation of "Xindong Town," with suggestions to evaluate it separately as a platform due to its complex profit structure [18]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates an upward revision of the net profit forecast for Xindong Company (02400) for 2025 and 2026 by 66% and 81% to 1.65 billion and 1.95 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a strong performance from TapTap and better-than-expected game results [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of no less than 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 37% [1] - The net profit for the same period is expected to be no less than 790 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of over 215% [1] - The performance is better than both the company's and market's expectations, with a previous net profit estimate of 500 million yuan [1] Group 2: Game Performance and Releases - The revenue growth in the first half of 2025 is primarily driven by the games "Ragnarok M: Beginning" and "Heart Town," along with "Torchlight" improving gross margin levels [1] - For the second half of 2025, profit growth is expected from the anniversary celebration of "Heart Town" and the launch of "Iser" [2] - The core product "Ragnarok RO: Eternal Love" is set for its first round of testing in December 2025, with a pre-release already launched on TapTap [2] Group 3: TapTap Platform Development - TapTap has shown steady revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by improvements in advertising algorithms and increased user engagement [3] - The company aims to enhance its platform with new features and a desktop version, focusing on major game updates and user experience [3] - Future developments will include a mini-game platform and AI game creation tools [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has raised its profit forecasts significantly for 2025 and 2026, reflecting better-than-expected performance from TapTap and game titles, leading to an upgraded target price and a maintained outperform rating [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - The company has increased its net profit expectations for 2025 and 2026 by 66% and 81% respectively, reaching 1.65 billion and 1.95 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15x and 13x [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue of no less than 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 37% [2]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be no less than 790 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of over 215% [2]. Group 2: Game Performance - The solid performance in the first half of 2025 is attributed to titles such as "Ragnarok M: Beginners' Server," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight," which have driven revenue growth and improved gross margins [3]. - The second half of 2025 is expected to see profit growth from the anniversary celebration of "Heart Town" and the launch of "Iser" on September 25, with the international version performing better than market expectations [3]. Group 3: TapTap Growth - TapTap has shown steady revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by improvements in advertising algorithms and increased user engagement [4]. - The company plans to focus on significant updates for games and the development of a PC version of TapTap, which has already garnered a user base [4]. - Future initiatives include enhancing the TapTap mini-game platform and exploring AI-driven game development [4].