心动公司 20251217 摘要 机游戏营收占比已上升至 92%。与此同时，手机应用商店垄断导致研发厂商更 注重氪金和爆款效应，这种环境促使心动公司推出 TapTap 平台，以重新整合 行业规则。 TapTap 平台于 2016 年上线，通过破解安装包冷启动积累用户流 量，并通过论坛互动增强用户粘性。然而，由于盗版问题，该平台在 2017 年 被整顿停战三个月。这一事件促使公司反思并调整策略，同时加大海外发行力 度。从 2016 年的海外收入占比 2%增长到 2018 年的 62%，目前仍保持过半 水平。心动 Global 负责海外发行，通过策展、广告和 PR 活动确保新游上线前 预热效果良好，从而实现较高的首充流水及活跃用户数据。 TapTap 平台是如何建立并发展的？ TapTap 平台由黄一梦与 BT China 创始人黄锡蔚及 VeryCD 产品经理张干共 同构建，于 2016 年 3 月上线。张干凭借其在聊天室、社交类产品及即时通讯 类产品方面的深刻洞察，为 TapTap 初期的发展奠定基础。早期用户主要通过 破解安装包冷启动积累流量，例如 Pokemon Go 等热门海外游戏吸引大量玩 家。 此外 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on Xindong Company (02400) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 at 28%/23%/14% and adjusted net profit growth at 94%/31%/24% [1] Group 1: Game Promotion and TapTap's Value - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license supply, leading to increased sales expense ratios, with TapTap emerging as a significant promotional channel [1] - TapTap's online promotion service revenue for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 976 million, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1] - TapTap offers low or no revenue sharing, making it developer-friendly, and has become a vital promotional channel for small and independent games due to its specialized and professional nature [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The number of game licenses issued in China increased by 25% year-on-year, with a total of 1,195 licenses from January to September 2025, enhancing promotional demand [2] - TapTap has over 240,000 registered developers and 300,000 games launched, with an average monthly active user count of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025 [2] - AI technology is expected to empower game development, benefiting TapTap by enhancing content supply and promoting a more equitable creative environment [2] Group 3: Validation of Xindong's Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The company has successfully validated its strategic adjustments since 2022, focusing on core product categories and enhancing efficiency [3] - Successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" demonstrate the company's ability to develop enduring games through resource focus and continuous updates [3] - Upcoming game releases, including the strategy card game "Iser" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicate a strong pipeline for future growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the growth potential of TapTap platform driven by the resumption of game license approvals and AI-enabled game development, alongside the strategic adjustments in the company's self-developed game pipeline [1][2]. Group 1: TapTap Platform Value - TapTap has become a significant channel for game promotion, with online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1]. - The platform offers low or no revenue sharing, making it friendly for small and independent developers, and has emerged as a vital promotional channel due to the fragmentation of user time and the rise of vertical communities [1]. - TapTap provides comprehensive services including analysis, testing, and marketing promotion, enhancing its value to developers [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The developer-user flywheel effect is established, with over 240,000 developers and 300,000 games launched, and an average monthly active user (MAU) of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 37% in user advertising ARPU [2]. - The total number of game licenses issued in 2025 reached 1,195, a 25% year-on-year increase, boosting the demand for promotion [2]. - The strategic expansion into multi-platform and international markets, along with AI-enabled game development, is expected to enhance TapTap's revenue potential, with projections estimating revenue could reach 5 billion by 2030 [2]. Group 3: Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The self-developed game strategy has shown positive results since 2024, with a focus on core categories and efficient resource allocation, leading to successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" [3]. - The company has demonstrated the ability to develop enduring games through focused resources, continuous optimization, and frequent updates, with successful overseas contributions [3]. - Future game pipeline includes promising titles such as the strategy card game "Ither" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicating a solid reserve of upcoming products [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [8][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the "Content + Platform" flywheel effect, highlighting the growth potential of the TapTap platform and the company's self-developed games [7][10]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 64.31 billion, 79.27 billion, and 90.59 billion RMB for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [8][3]. - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 17.02 billion, 22.26 billion, and 27.60 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [8][3]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,389 million RMB - 2024: 5,012 million RMB - 2025E: 6,431 million RMB - 2026E: 7,927 million RMB - 2027E: 9,059 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at -1%, 48%, 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [6]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: -34 million RMB - 2024: 877 million RMB - 2025E: 1,702 million RMB - 2026E: 2,226 million RMB - 2027E: 2,760 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 93%, 2670%, 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [6]. Market Dynamics - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license issuance, with a total of 1,195 licenses issued in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25% [11][31]. - The report notes that TapTap is becoming an increasingly important channel for game promotion, with its online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million RMB in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [7][23]. - The growth of TapTap is driven by improvements in domestic licensing, advancements in self-developed games, and strategic expansions into PC and international markets [11][30]. Competitive Advantage - TapTap's low revenue-sharing model (maximum 5% for paid games and free-to-play games incur no fees) is highlighted as a significant advantage for attracting developers, especially independent and small developers [25][10]. - The platform has established a strong community and content ecosystem, differentiating itself from traditional app stores and social media platforms [10][25]. - The report suggests that the market has not fully recognized the value and potential of the TapTap platform, which is well-positioned to capitalize on the evolving gaming landscape [10][11].

Summary of the Conference Call for Xindong Company Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on Xindong Company, specifically its gaming distribution platform TapTap, which differentiates itself from Apple and Android app stores by not charging channel fees and instead generating revenue through value-added services [2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Revenue Growth Despite MAU Decline**: In 2023, TapTap's Monthly Active Users (MAU) decreased by 20%, yet revenue increased by 30%, indicating that Daily Active Users (DAU) and average daily usage time are more critical for revenue growth [6][2]. - **Future Revenue Projections**: TapTap is expected to maintain a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 20% in revenue over the next three years, driven by DAU growth and increased user engagement [2][7]. - **PC Strategy Launch**: TapTap's PC strategy is set to launch in April 2025, aiming to leverage overlapping user profiles and the revival of the PC gaming market, while maintaining a no-commission policy to enhance competitiveness [2][9][10]. - **Stock Price Surge**: Xindong Company's stock price rose significantly from 7 yuan in 2024 to over 80 yuan in 2025, attributed to a successful product cycle, improved overseas distribution capabilities, and refined publishing strategies [11][12]. - **Mutual Empowerment of Games and Platform**: Xindong Company utilizes its self-developed games to attract users to the TapTap platform, which in turn enhances user retention and drives traffic to other products, creating a flywheel effect for overall growth [13][2]. Additional Important Insights - **Advertising Revenue Model**: TapTap's advertising revenue model relies on four key metrics: DAU, average daily usage time, ad loading rate, and ad unit price. DAU is projected to grow from 5-6 million to 7-8 million in the next three years [4][5]. - **Cost Structure and Profitability**: The cost structure is manageable, with personnel salaries and server bandwidth being the main costs. This allows for significant profit growth alongside revenue expansion [7][9]. - **Competitive Advantages**: Xindong Company's competitive advantages include its unique vertical distribution platform, TapTap, and the management's strong understanding and execution of gaming concepts, making it a company to watch for long-term growth [15][16]. Conclusion - Xindong Company is positioned for robust growth in the gaming industry, with a strong focus on its TapTap platform and strategic initiatives that leverage market trends and user engagement. The company's ability to adapt and innovate will be crucial in maintaining its competitive edge and achieving its financial targets in the coming years.

Summary of Xindong Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Xindong Company - **Industry**: Gaming and Information Services Key Points and Arguments 1. **Revenue Performance**: Xindong Company's gaming business revenue exceeded expectations, driven by strong performance in overseas markets for "Ragnarok" and significant contributions from "Torchlight" and "Xindong Town" [2][4] 2. **Profit Improvement**: The company saw a notable improvement in profit margins, with the gaming business gross margin increasing due to a higher proportion of overseas business, which has a better margin [2][4] 3. **Future Growth Potential**: Xindong Company has high growth certainty, with upcoming launches of "Iser" in multiple regions and the overseas version of "Xindong Town" expected by the end of 2025, which could significantly contribute to revenue [2][5] 4. **TapTap Platform**: The TapTap platform benefits from algorithmic recommendations and AI capabilities, enhancing ad targeting and improving ROI for advertisers, suggesting it should be valued as a vertical gaming community or tech platform [2][6] 5. **Revenue Forecast Adjustments**: The company raised its gaming business revenue forecast for 2025 by 32.4%, with similar adjustments for 2026 and 2027 nearing 35%, while also increasing overall gross margin by 4 percentage points [2][7] 6. **Profit Structure Changes**: The profit structure is shifting, with TapTap's profit growth potentially surpassing that of the gaming business, indicating a need for a distributed valuation approach [2][12][13] 7. **Market Valuation**: Using a distributed valuation method, the target market value is approximately 37 billion RMB, corresponding to a target price of 81 HKD, indicating further upside potential from current stock prices [3][14] 8. **Product Line Clarity**: The product line for the next two years is clear, with "Iser" contributing in Q4 2025 and "Xindong Town" expected to generate significant revenue in 2026 [10][26] 9. **Success Rate of Products**: The high success rate of Xindong's products is attributed to systematic resource investment and management optimization, leading to successful launches like "Xindong Town" and "Iser" [11] 10. **TapTap's Unique Business Model**: TapTap operates as both a game community and distribution channel, with a zero-revenue-sharing model that attracts many mid-tier companies, thus reducing their costs [19] 11. **Advertising Revenue Growth**: TapTap's advertising revenue is closely linked to its monthly active users (MAU), with a 33% increase in ad revenue despite a decline in MAU in 2023 [20] 12. **Profitability of TapTap**: In 2024, TapTap generated 1.5 billion RMB in revenue with a net profit exceeding 400 million RMB, and the net profit margin is expected to rise to around 40% in 2025 [25] 13. **Overall Performance Outlook**: The overall performance outlook for Xindong Company remains optimistic, with adjusted earnings forecasts reflecting strong growth potential driven by successful game launches and the profitability of the TapTap platform [27] Other Important Insights - **Market Discrepancies**: There are significant discrepancies in market valuation, with traditional views comparing Xindong to larger gaming companies like Tencent and NetEase, which may not accurately reflect its current growth trajectory [8][9] - **Focus on Key Projects**: Key projects to watch include "Ragnarok" and "Torchlight," with "Ragnarok" performing particularly well in Southeast Asia [15] - **User Engagement Strategies**: "Xindong Town" has maintained user engagement through frequent events, contributing to its strong performance in 2025 [16][17] - **Valuation Perspectives**: Different viewpoints exist regarding the valuation of "Xindong Town," with suggestions to evaluate it separately as a platform due to its complex profit structure [18]

Core Viewpoint - The report from CICC indicates an upward revision of the net profit forecast for Xindong Company (02400) for 2025 and 2026 by 66% and 81% to 1.65 billion and 1.95 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a strong performance from TapTap and better-than-expected game results [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company forecasts a revenue of no less than 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of over 37% [1] - The net profit for the same period is expected to be no less than 790 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of over 215% [1] - The performance is better than both the company's and market's expectations, with a previous net profit estimate of 500 million yuan [1] Group 2: Game Performance and Releases - The revenue growth in the first half of 2025 is primarily driven by the games "Ragnarok M: Beginning" and "Heart Town," along with "Torchlight" improving gross margin levels [1] - For the second half of 2025, profit growth is expected from the anniversary celebration of "Heart Town" and the launch of "Iser" [2] - The core product "Ragnarok RO: Eternal Love" is set for its first round of testing in December 2025, with a pre-release already launched on TapTap [2] Group 3: TapTap Platform Development - TapTap has shown steady revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by improvements in advertising algorithms and increased user engagement [3] - The company aims to enhance its platform with new features and a desktop version, focusing on major game updates and user experience [3] - Future developments will include a mini-game platform and AI game creation tools [3]

Core Viewpoint - The company has raised its profit forecasts significantly for 2025 and 2026, reflecting better-than-expected performance from TapTap and game titles, leading to an upgraded target price and a maintained outperform rating [1][2]. Group 1: Profit Forecasts - The company has increased its net profit expectations for 2025 and 2026 by 66% and 81% respectively, reaching 1.65 billion and 1.95 billion yuan, corresponding to P/E ratios of 15x and 13x [1]. - The company anticipates a revenue of no less than 3.05 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of over 37% [2]. - The net profit for the same period is expected to be no less than 790 million yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of over 215% [2]. Group 2: Game Performance - The solid performance in the first half of 2025 is attributed to titles such as "Ragnarok M: Beginners' Server," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight," which have driven revenue growth and improved gross margins [3]. - The second half of 2025 is expected to see profit growth from the anniversary celebration of "Heart Town" and the launch of "Iser" on September 25, with the international version performing better than market expectations [3]. Group 3: TapTap Growth - TapTap has shown steady revenue growth in the first half of 2025, driven by improvements in advertising algorithms and increased user engagement [4]. - The company plans to focus on significant updates for games and the development of a PC version of TapTap, which has already garnered a user base [4]. - Future initiatives include enhancing the TapTap mini-game platform and exploring AI-driven game development [4].