Company Background - Xindong Company is a global game developer and publisher with extensive experience in research and development, publishing, and agency operations. The company's major games include "Let's Go, Muffin," "Xindong Town," "Iser," "Ragnarok M," and "Torchlight: Infinite." According to Sensor Tower, the company is expected to enter the global mobile game publisher revenue ranking TOP 100 by October 2025, ranking 22nd among Chinese mobile game publishers. The company also owns TapTap, the largest comprehensive game community platform in China, which provides a full-service experience for players and developers [1][2]. Self-Developed Game Performance - Since 2024, the company's self-developed games such as "Let's Go, Muffin," "Xindong Town," and "Iser" have shown impressive performance, reflecting the high success rate from refining quality games and precise product positioning. The international version of "Xindong Town" and new products like "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2" are expected to continue driving growth [2]. TapTap Platform Growth and Commercialization - TapTap exhibits a "user-game" dual-sided effect, with a zero-revenue-sharing policy and a considerable user base attracting many quality games to launch and promote on the platform. The ongoing opening of the iOS application ecosystem in China is expected to further expand TapTap's growth potential. The launch of the TapTap PC version will help broaden the user base and market for multi-platform games, including PC and independent games. The TapAND business has been successfully initiated and has vast market potential. In the first half of 2025, TapTap's revenue reached 1.01 billion, representing a year-on-year increase of 37.6%. The company forecasts TapTap's revenue growth of 35.5%, 25.0%, and 14.6% for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [3]. Profit Forecast, Valuation, and Rating - As revenue scales grow, the operating leverage effect is expected to be released, leading to a net profit growth rate for the company that exceeds revenue growth. The forecast for the company's net profit attributable to shareholders is 1.7 billion, 2.12 billion, and 2.55 billion for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 111.2%, 24.3%, and 20.0%. The corresponding EPS is projected to be 3.44, 4.28, and 5.16 yuan. Based on industry valuation, a target price of 103.2 HKD is set for 2026, with an initial "buy" rating [4].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking it as a first-time coverage [1]. Core Insights - The company is positioned for growth through a dual engine of self-developed games and the TapTap platform, which serves as a comprehensive game community and distribution platform [1][2]. - The self-developed games have shown strong performance, with titles like "Let's Go Muffin" and "Heart Town" driving revenue growth, while the TapTap platform is expected to expand significantly due to its user base and monetization potential [2][34]. Summary by Sections Company Overview - The company is a global game developer and publisher with a diverse portfolio, including popular titles such as "Let's Go Muffin," "Heart Town," and "Torchlight: Infinite." It ranks 22nd among mobile game publishers in China and is expected to enter the global top 100 by October 2025 [1]. Investment Logic - **Self-Developed Game Capability**: The company has consistently validated its ability to develop successful games, with a strong product matrix and ongoing growth from new releases and international expansions [2][12]. - **TapTap Platform Growth**: The platform benefits from a user-game dual effect, with a zero-revenue-sharing policy attracting quality games and users. The introduction of a PC version and the expansion of the iOS ecosystem are expected to further enhance growth [2][34][39]. Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve significant profit growth, with net profits expected to reach 1.7 billion, 2.1 billion, and 2.55 billion CNY in 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, reflecting growth rates of 111.2%, 24.3%, and 20.0% [2][46]. - The target price is set at 103.2 HKD, based on a 22x PE ratio for 2026, indicating a strong valuation relative to industry peers [2][50]. Revenue Projections - Total revenue is expected to grow from 3.39 billion CNY in 2023 to 8.84 billion CNY by 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 31.0% from 2025 to 2027 [46][47]. - Game revenue is projected to increase significantly, driven by successful titles and new game launches, while information service revenue from TapTap is also expected to grow robustly [46][47]. Cost and Margin Expectations - The company anticipates improving gross margins, with overall gross margins projected to rise from 69.4% in 2024 to 76.3% by 2027, driven by a higher proportion of self-developed games [48][49].

Core Viewpoint - The recent withdrawal of NetEase games from OPPO's app store highlights a growing tension between game developers and traditional Android distribution channels, primarily due to high revenue sharing models that limit profit margins for developers [1][4][15]. Group 1: Game Withdrawal from OPPO - NetEase games, including popular titles like "Onmyoji: Yokai House" and "Fantasy Westward Journey," will cease operations on OPPO channels starting from November 2024, with a complete withdrawal expected by October 2025 [1]. - This trend of withdrawing from OPPO channels began last year and reflects a broader industry shift away from traditional Android distribution methods [1][4]. Group 2: Revenue Sharing Issues - The high revenue sharing model, often referred to as "Android tax," has become a critical issue for game developers, with reports indicating that Android channels take up to 50% of revenue, significantly higher than the 30% typically charged by platforms like Apple's App Store [6][15]. - The "hardcore alliance" established by major Android manufacturers in 2014 set a standard revenue share of 50% for game developers, which has persisted in the industry [8]. Group 3: Alternative Distribution Models - Developers are increasingly exploring alternative distribution methods, such as using platforms like TapTap, which do not charge revenue shares, allowing for greater profitability [10][12]. - Successful titles like "Genshin Impact" and "Awakening of Nations" have demonstrated that it is possible to achieve significant revenue without relying on traditional Android channels [12][14]. Group 4: Industry Evolution - The gaming industry is transitioning from a "traffic-driven" model to a "content-driven" model, where the quality of the game itself becomes the primary factor in attracting users [14]. - Despite the shift, the costs associated with customer acquisition through alternative channels have increased, as seen in NetEase's substantial advertising expenditures [14][15].

Company Overview - The game "Heart Town" will begin overseas testing on November 5, 2026, with an expected iOS App Store launch date of January 8, 2026 [1] - The company has updated its game revenue and Tap performance metrics [1] Game Performance - "Torchlight" has shown strong performance in its new season launched in October, indicating a potential increase in player engagement [1] - "Ither" has had a lackluster performance in the East Asia region since its September launch, primarily due to issues with balance and user matching, leading to limited revenue contribution for the year [1] - "Ragnarok: Origin" has also seen a decline in overseas performance, negatively impacting profits [1] Future Outlook - The primary focus for 2026 will be on the overseas performance of "Heart Town," which is expected to have a higher initial commercialization level compared to its domestic counterpart [2] - "Ither" is anticipated to contribute throughout the year, while the progress of the open-world game "Ragnarok 2" is also being monitored [2] - TapTap is expected to see a quarter-on-quarter increase in user engagement in the second half of 2025, with stable revenue performance anticipated [2] Advertising and Business Development - The company is developing its Dirichlet advertising alliance, focusing on intelligent configuration and refined operations across various advertising platforms [2] Profit Forecast and Valuation - Due to the underwhelming performance of "Ither" in East Asia, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025 and 2026 down by 13.5% and 13.1% to 1.4 billion and 1.7 billion respectively [2] - The target price has been adjusted down by 4% to HKD 89.5, reflecting a 23x P/E for 2026, with an upside potential of 30% [2]

Summary of the Conference Call for Xindong Company Industry and Company Overview - **Company**: Xindong Company - **Industry**: Gaming Industry in China - **Key Platform**: TapTap, a third-party game community and distribution platform Core Insights and Arguments - Xindong Company has established a full industry chain layout through popular games like "Xindong Town" and the TapTap platform, enhancing user engagement and payment levels, leading to long-term value growth [2][10] - TapTap operates on a non-revenue-sharing model, focusing on community interaction and precise recommendations to boost user stickiness, which in turn supports game distribution and operation [2][5] - The Chinese gaming market has shifted towards innovation-driven growth, with players demanding higher quality and experience in games. Xindong Company is focusing on independent games and innovative categories to build a differentiated advantage for long-term growth [2][6] - The company is optimizing team size and terminating non-core projects to improve resource efficiency, marking a shift from extensive expansion to pursuing certain outcomes, resulting in a slowdown in R&D expense growth [2][9] Key Strategies and Developments - Xindong Company employs a "channel plus product" dual-driven model, enhancing self-developed capabilities and launching hit products that significantly contribute to revenue and user engagement [3][10] - TapTap serves as a core component of Xindong's ecosystem, providing distribution and social interaction, and generating revenue through advertising [4][11] - The company has seen a significant increase in its stake in Shanghai Yiwang (TapTap's parent company) due to changes in shareholder structure, with Xindong's ownership approaching 89% [7] Market Trends and Company Response - The gaming market in China is transitioning from population-driven growth to innovation-driven growth, with a focus on creating differentiated experiences through innovative content [6][18] - Xindong Company is responding to these changes by focusing on independent games and innovative products to attract specific user groups and establish a competitive edge [6][20] Financial Performance and Future Outlook - Xindong's self-developed products have performed exceptionally well, with titles like "Shu'an Maifen" and "Xindong Town" exceeding expectations and driving user numbers to historical highs [26][27] - The development prospects for the TapTap platform are promising, with a strong user base and effective game distribution, indicating significant growth potential for the company's gaming business [27] Additional Insights - TapTap's advertising business shows resilience and commercial potential, with a strong performance even during market downturns [23][24] - The platform has room for expanding advertising space, which could further enhance revenue generation [24] - Xindong Company is exploring additional monetization models beyond gaming ads, including cloud gaming and developer services [25][26] Conclusion - Xindong Company is positioned as a key player in the Chinese gaming industry, leveraging its unique platform and innovative strategies to drive growth and enhance user engagement, making it a noteworthy entity in the market [27]

Core Viewpoint - Shenwan Hongyuan initiates coverage on Xindong Company (02400) with a "Buy" rating, projecting revenue growth from 2025 to 2027 at 28%/23%/14% and adjusted net profit growth at 94%/31%/24% [1] Group 1: Game Promotion and TapTap's Value - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license supply, leading to increased sales expense ratios, with TapTap emerging as a significant promotional channel [1] - TapTap's online promotion service revenue for the first half of 2025 is estimated at 976 million, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1] - TapTap offers low or no revenue sharing, making it developer-friendly, and has become a vital promotional channel for small and independent games due to its specialized and professional nature [1] Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The number of game licenses issued in China increased by 25% year-on-year, with a total of 1,195 licenses from January to September 2025, enhancing promotional demand [2] - TapTap has over 240,000 registered developers and 300,000 games launched, with an average monthly active user count of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025 [2] - AI technology is expected to empower game development, benefiting TapTap by enhancing content supply and promoting a more equitable creative environment [2] Group 3: Validation of Xindong's Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The company has successfully validated its strategic adjustments since 2022, focusing on core product categories and enhancing efficiency [3] - Successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" demonstrate the company's ability to develop enduring games through resource focus and continuous updates [3] - Upcoming game releases, including the strategy card game "Iser" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicate a strong pipeline for future growth [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report emphasizes the growth potential of TapTap platform driven by the resumption of game license approvals and AI-enabled game development, alongside the strategic adjustments in the company's self-developed game pipeline [1][2]. Group 1: TapTap Platform Value - TapTap has become a significant channel for game promotion, with online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [1]. - The platform offers low or no revenue sharing, making it friendly for small and independent developers, and has emerged as a vital promotional channel due to the fragmentation of user time and the rise of vertical communities [1]. - TapTap provides comprehensive services including analysis, testing, and marketing promotion, enhancing its value to developers [1]. Group 2: Growth Drivers for TapTap - The developer-user flywheel effect is established, with over 240,000 developers and 300,000 games launched, and an average monthly active user (MAU) of 43.6 million in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year increase of 37% in user advertising ARPU [2]. - The total number of game licenses issued in 2025 reached 1,195, a 25% year-on-year increase, boosting the demand for promotion [2]. - The strategic expansion into multi-platform and international markets, along with AI-enabled game development, is expected to enhance TapTap's revenue potential, with projections estimating revenue could reach 5 billion by 2030 [2]. Group 3: Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The self-developed game strategy has shown positive results since 2024, with a focus on core categories and efficient resource allocation, leading to successful titles like "Torchlight" and "Muffin" [3]. - The company has demonstrated the ability to develop enduring games through focused resources, continuous optimization, and frequent updates, with successful overseas contributions [3]. - Future game pipeline includes promising titles such as the strategy card game "Ither" and the open-world MMO "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," indicating a solid reserve of upcoming products [3].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [8][3]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the "Content + Platform" flywheel effect, highlighting the growth potential of the TapTap platform and the company's self-developed games [7][10]. - The company is expected to achieve significant revenue growth, with projected revenues of 64.31 billion, 79.27 billion, and 90.59 billion RMB for 2025-2027, representing year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [8][3]. - Adjusted net profits are forecasted to be 17.02 billion, 22.26 billion, and 27.60 billion RMB for the same period, with growth rates of 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [8][3]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2023: 3,389 million RMB - 2024: 5,012 million RMB - 2025E: 6,431 million RMB - 2026E: 7,927 million RMB - 2027E: 9,059 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for revenue are projected at -1%, 48%, 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [6]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts are: - 2023: -34 million RMB - 2024: 877 million RMB - 2025E: 1,702 million RMB - 2026E: 2,226 million RMB - 2027E: 2,760 million RMB - Year-on-year growth rates for net profit are projected at 93%, 2670%, 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [6]. Market Dynamics - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license issuance, with a total of 1,195 licenses issued in the first nine months of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 25% [11][31]. - The report notes that TapTap is becoming an increasingly important channel for game promotion, with its online promotion service revenue reaching 976 million RMB in the first half of 2025, capturing approximately 3.27% of the mobile game advertising market [7][23]. - The growth of TapTap is driven by improvements in domestic licensing, advancements in self-developed games, and strategic expansions into PC and international markets [11][30]. Competitive Advantage - TapTap's low revenue-sharing model (maximum 5% for paid games and free-to-play games incur no fees) is highlighted as a significant advantage for attracting developers, especially independent and small developers [25][10]. - The platform has established a strong community and content ecosystem, differentiating itself from traditional app stores and social media platforms [10][25]. - The report suggests that the market has not fully recognized the value and potential of the TapTap platform, which is well-positioned to capitalize on the evolving gaming landscape [10][11].

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [3][8]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the "Content + Platform" flywheel effect, highlighting the value of the TapTap platform and the company's self-developed games [7][10]. - The gaming industry is experiencing a recovery in license supply, which, combined with changes in distribution channels, positions TapTap as a significant promotional channel for games [20][27]. - The company's self-developed game capabilities are gradually being validated, with successful titles contributing to revenue growth [51]. Financial Data and Profitability Forecast - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: 2025E at 6,431 million RMB, 2026E at 7,927 million RMB, and 2027E at 9,059 million RMB, with year-on-year growth rates of 28%, 23%, and 14% respectively [6][8]. - Adjusted net profit attributable to ordinary shareholders is forecasted to be 1,702 million RMB in 2025E, 2,226 million RMB in 2026E, and 2,760 million RMB in 2027E, with significant growth rates of 94%, 31%, and 24% respectively [6][8]. - The report employs the SOTP valuation method, estimating the company's market value at 549 billion HKD [8]. TapTap Business Growth Drivers - The growth of TapTap is driven by an increase in domestic game licenses, advancements in self-developed games, and expansion into PC and international markets [9][35]. - The platform has established a developer-user flywheel effect, with over 240,000 developers and 300,000 games launched, leading to a significant increase in monthly active users (MAU) [35][41]. - The report anticipates that TapTap's advertising revenue could exceed 5 billion RMB by 2030, driven by user growth and improved monetization strategies [11][49]. Self-Developed Game Capabilities - The company has successfully adjusted its product cycle since 2024, focusing on strong game categories and validating its strategic direction [51]. - Upcoming titles such as "伊瑟" and "心动小镇" are expected to contribute positively to the company's pipeline and revenue [51][40].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported strong mid-term performance with significant revenue and profit growth, indicating a robust recovery in the gaming industry and effective management strategies [1][4]. Financial Performance - The company achieved revenue of 3.082 billion yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year increase of 38.8% [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders reached 755 million yuan, a substantial year-on-year growth of 268% [1]. - Gross profit increased by 50.5% to 2.253 billion yuan, with gross margin rising from 67.4% to 73.1%, marking a new high since its listing [1]. Business Segments - The gaming segment generated revenue of 2.071 billion yuan, up 39.4% year-on-year, driven by the success of self-developed games like "Ragnarok M: Beginners' Server" and "Torchlight: Infinite" [1]. - The TapTap platform reported revenue of 1.011 billion yuan, a 37.6% increase year-on-year, with improved commercialization efficiency [3]. User Engagement - The average monthly active users for online games reached 11.409 million, a 19.7% increase year-on-year, while average monthly paying users grew by 21.1% to 1.322 million [2]. R&D and Product Development - R&D expenses amounted to 549 million yuan, a 30.8% increase year-on-year, with the number of R&D personnel rising from 997 to 1,033 [3]. - Upcoming game releases include "Iser" on September 25 and "RO2" in December, which are expected to enhance the paid gaming business [3]. Industry Context - The gaming industry in China saw a 14.08% year-on-year increase in actual sales revenue in the first half of 2025, reaching a historical high [4]. - AI technology is transforming the gaming creation ecosystem, with predictions of the AI-native gaming market in China reaching 33.7 billion yuan by 2027, representing over 20 times growth in three years [4]. Market Reaction - Following the earnings report, the company's stock price surged over 6%, reflecting positive market sentiment [5]. - Institutional funds have shown significant interest in the gaming sector, with a heavy investment in the gaming sub-sector of the media industry [5][6]. Strategic Direction - The company is transitioning from a game developer to an ecosystem builder, supported by a dual-driven model of "self-developed quality games + open ecosystem" [6]. - The integration of AI technology and the evolution of the TapTap platform from distribution to a creative ecosystem are key components of the company's long-term strategy [6].