" 从弃之可惜的「拖油瓶」，到炙手可热的「股价担当」，真的只 有一封解散信的距离。 " 作者丨胡家铭 编辑丨董子博 "还差几个小时，《心动小镇》的解散内部信，就会发到各个项目组人员手上"，一想到当时的情景，前心 动员工曼波还是会至今记得那种窒息感。 那是2023年中，心动网络的至暗时刻。股价从云端的113港元跌落至7.4港元/股，市值蒸发逾90%。 但在最后关头，一群由心动元老组成的"白骑士团"拦住了黄一孟。在那场漫长且激烈的博弈后，解散信被 撤回了。 生存的筹码是昂贵的。 黄一孟虽然收回了屠刀，却也开出了近乎苛刻的留存条件：《心动小镇》的项目组 可以保留，但人数从近100锐减到50人以下，且宣发资源近乎清零。一切只为研发，一切只为上线。如 此"铁血"不为其他，只为项目和公司的生存。 直到2026年，《心动小镇》终于在海外数十个国家登顶，新增用户超过1000万，公司股价也离前高不算 太远。《心动小镇》，算是彻底找回了场子。 项目海外多国登顶之后，外界看到的或许是"长期主义的胜利"。那些曾经力劝黄一孟留下项目的"白骑 士"们，或许也会心一笑，又回想起力劝黄一孟"刀下留人"的那个下午。 01 面对接连失利的新游和 ...

投资建议 我们关注的核心问题是：TapTap正如何通过构建覆盖游戏"研发、测试、上线、长线运营"的全周期B端 服务生态，实现从"流量分发渠道"到"产业服务基础设施"的升维？Dirichlet业务是如何诞生的？TapTap 制造如何实现Vibe coding game落地？ 理由 机构：中金公司 研究员：张雪晴/余歆瑶 TapTap凭借对高价值游戏垂类用户的深度理解及持续迭代的自研广告算法，实现了广告投放成本的优化 与转化效率的提升。基于此，新兴而起的Dirichlet广告聚合平台将这一能力复制至更广阔的站外市场， 通过整合行业流量，我们认为有望开辟新增长极，并反哺主站算法能力。 UGC工具激发生态活力，AI探索锁定长期增长与价值空间。星火编辑器及"TapTap制造"AI工具大幅降 低了游戏创作门槛，将海量玩家转化为潜在创作者。这不仅为TapTap平台提供了独家的低成本内容供 给，更初步构建了从创作、分发到商业化的闭环，我们认为未来有望开启平台内生的创作者经济，形成 生态护城河。 盈利预测与估值 维持25~27 年归母净利润预测14/17/20 亿元。现价对应20/17倍26/27 年P/E。维持跑赢行业评级， ...

Core Viewpoint - CICC maintains the profit forecast for Xindong Company (02400) at 1.4 billion, 1.7 billion, and 2 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with a target price increase of 10% to 98.7 HKD, indicating a potential upside of 26% [1] Group 1: Business Model Evolution - TapTap is transitioning from a single game distribution platform to a full-cycle service provider covering "development, testing, launch, and long-term operation," thereby constructing a closed-loop game industry infrastructure [2] - The strategic core of TapTap lies in leveraging its technological capabilities across various stages of the game lifecycle, creating a synergistic effect of "traffic + tools + monetization" [2] - The establishment of a B-end service matrix enhances business stability and profitability diversity, facilitating a shift in company valuation from a "gaming company" to a higher-premium "ecosystem platform" logic [2] Group 2: Advertising Technology and Efficiency - TapTap has optimized advertising costs and conversion efficiency through a deep understanding of high-value gaming users and continuous iteration of its self-developed advertising algorithms [3] - The emerging Dirichlet advertising aggregation platform aims to replicate this capability in the broader external market, potentially opening new growth avenues and enhancing the main site's algorithm capabilities [3] Group 3: UGC Tools and Long-term Growth - The Spark Editor and "TapTap Manufacturing" AI tools significantly lower the barriers to game creation, transforming a large number of players into potential creators [4] - This development not only provides exclusive low-cost content supply for the TapTap platform but also begins to establish a closed loop from creation to distribution and commercialization, potentially unlocking an endogenous creator economy and forming an ecological moat [4]

智通财经APP获悉，中金发布研报称，维持心动公司(02400)25~27年归母净利润预测14/17/20亿元。现 价对应20/17倍26/27年P/E。维持跑赢行业评级，考虑Tap生态稀缺性具备估值溢价，上调目标价10%至 98.7港元(25/21倍26/27年P/E)，上行空间26%。 中金主要观点如下： 广告技术驱动效率提升，Tap站内外广告覆盖度进一步提升 TapTap凭借对高价值游戏垂类用户的深度理解及持续迭代的自研广告算法，实现了广告投放成本的优化 与转化效率的提升。基于此，新兴而起的Dirichlet广告聚合平台将这一能力复制至更广阔的站外市场， 通过整合行业流量，该行认为有望开辟新增长极，并反哺主站算法能力。 UGC工具激发生态活力，AI探索锁定长期增长与价值空间 星火编辑器及"TapTap制造"AI工具大幅降低了游戏创作门槛，将海量玩家转化为潜在创作者。这不仅为 TapTap平台提供了独家的低成本内容供给，更初步构建了从创作、分发到商业化的闭环，该行认为未来 有望开启平台内生的创作者经济，形成生态护城河。 风险提示：行业政策变化，行业竞争加剧，AI应用进展低于预期，宏观经济影响娱乐需求，游戏表 ...

行业研究 TMT 之媒体行业 媒体行业 2025 年回顾与 2026 年展望：媒体行业整体平 稳运行，将步入数字化转型的关键阶段 文/刘博雅 摘要 2025 年，传统媒体中图书零售整体呈现负增长，内容电商超越平台电商成为第一大细分 零售渠道，近年来新媒体用户规模持续扩大，微短剧数量与质量双升，游戏行业市场规模保持 增长态势，2025 年全年收入规模和用户规模均创历史新高。随着数字化技术的普及和用户习 惯的改变，媒体行业的需求结构正经历重塑，市场格局呈现"流量向巨头集中、传统媒体转型 求生"的竞争态势。信用评级方面，媒体行业发债主体集中在传统媒体细分行业，级别以 AAA 为主，2025 年 AA+级别主体发行规模同比大幅增长，2025 年二季度以来无担保债券发行信用 利差（平均数）相对稳定。回顾 2025 年全年，媒体行业整体平稳运行，展望 2026 年，行业将 步入数字化转型的关键阶段，行业内企业将持续分化，依赖高杠杆或商业模式滞后的公司，可 能继续面临市场出清的压力。 一、 行业供给能力分析 1.1 行业规模分析 传统媒体方面，2025 年全年图书零售整体呈现负增长。根据北京开卷信息技术有限公司 （以下简称 ...

Core Viewpoint - The announcement of Google's Genie3 model and TapTap's AI game creation tool is expected to significantly lower the barriers to game development, allowing players to become creators and enhancing the personalization and richness of game supply [1] Group 1: Company Performance - Xindong Company (02400) saw a nearly 7% increase in early trading, with a current rise of 4.01%, priced at 89.4 HKD, and a trading volume of 259 million HKD [1] Group 2: Industry Developments - Google announced the public testing of its world model Genie3 on January 30, enabling users to create real-time interactive virtual worlds through natural language dialogue, with impressive practical results [1] - TapTap launched its AI game creation agent "TapTap Manufacturing," which aims to reduce technical barriers and limitations in game creation, promoting a "zero-barrier creation" era [1] - Open Source Securities reported that advancements in AI model tools could significantly lower game development thresholds, allowing players to become creators and enhancing the value of traffic platforms and distribution channels [1] - Changjiang Securities indicated that AI is expected to reshape the game industry's development chain and construct a new content ecosystem [1]

开源证券发布研报称，AI模型工具能力的跃迁或助力游戏开发门槛大幅降低，玩家可成为创作者，从 而推动游戏供给个性化程度及丰富性大幅提升，进而提升流量平台及分发渠道价值。长江证券则表示， AI有望重塑游戏行业开发链路并构建全新内容生态。 智通财经APP获悉，心动公司(02400)早盘涨近7%，截至发稿，涨4.01%，报89.4港元，成交额2.59亿港 元。 消息面上，1月30日，谷歌宣布世界模型Genie3开启公测，用户可通过自然语言对话，生成类似于游戏 的实时交互虚拟世界，实测效果惊艳。同日，TapTap正式推出AI游戏创作智能体"TapTap制造"，这款 以"想到就能做到"为核心理念的AI智能体，将通过AI与平台能力的结合，降低游戏创作的技术壁垒与门 槛限制，推动游戏进入"0门槛创作"时代。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a strong recommendation for the gaming sector, particularly highlighting the performance of "Heart Town" in international markets [1][2]. Core Insights - The media industry has seen a 3.34% increase over the past week, ranking third among all sectors, and a 16.92% increase year-to-date, leading all sectors [1]. - The report emphasizes the potential of key companies in the gaming sector, with several titles showing significant performance improvements in international markets [1]. - The report identifies opportunities in the overseas and female-oriented gaming markets, projecting a 14.08% year-on-year increase in sales revenue for the Chinese market in the first half of 2025, reaching 168 billion yuan [1]. - AI applications are expected to continue influencing the gaming industry positively, enhancing production efficiency and creativity [1]. Summary by Sections Market Performance - The media sector's overall performance shows a 3.34% increase from January 12 to January 18, with the media index outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index [10][1]. - Key companies in the media sector have shown varied performance, with notable increases in stocks like Liou Co. and People's Daily [13]. Gaming Sector Highlights - "Heart Town" has topped the free charts in over 50 regions globally since its international launch on January 8, 2026, indicating strong overseas marketing capabilities [2]. - The gaming market in China is projected to reach 168 billion yuan in sales revenue in the first half of 2025, with a user base of 679 million [1]. - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the female gaming market, with a projected market size of 8 billion yuan in 2024, growing at a rate of 124.1% [1]. Company Performance - Key companies such as Century Huatong and Giant Network are expected to see significant revenue growth from new game launches and international expansions [1]. - The report notes that AI technology is enhancing game production and marketing efficiency, with companies like 37 Interactive Entertainment and Century Huatong investing in related technologies [1].

Group 1 - The international version of "Heart Town" has exceeded download expectations, reaching 5 million downloads shortly after its launch, which is expected to contribute positively to revenue growth [1] - The game is leveraging its strong IP connections, including a collaboration with "My Little Pony," to enhance user engagement and retention, supported by over a year of operational experience from the domestic version [1] - Upcoming seasonal events during the winter and Spring Festival are anticipated to boost revenue for existing games, while new game developments are expected to provide significant revenue increments [1] Group 2 - The domestic version of "Heart Town" is launching a new year event in collaboration with the popular IP "Pleasant Goat and Big Big Wolf," which includes various player rewards aimed at increasing active user numbers and average revenue per user (ARPU) [2] - The open-world MMO "RO2" is set for offline testing, with expectations that it will become a high-revenue game based on the success of its predecessor [2] - TapTap's domestic monthly active users reached 43.63 million in the first half of 2025, showing a 1% year-on-year increase, with revenue growth of 33% attributed to improvements in advertising algorithms [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent stock performance of Xindong Company reflects market recognition of its short-term product potential and long-term ecological value, driven by the global success of "Xindong Town" and the acquisition of the "Torchlight" IP [1][14]. Group 1: Short-term Product Performance - Xindong Company's stock price has surged over 35% in the past month, attracting increasing market attention amid structural adjustments in the gaming industry [1]. - The flagship product "Xindong Town" has shown impressive performance in global markets, achieving 2.39 million downloads and generating revenue of 4.35 million yuan shortly after its global launch [5]. - The game's unique design and localized operational strategies have contributed to its overseas success, allowing it to capture a significant share in the competitive simulation game market [7]. Group 2: Long-term Ecological Value - The acquisition of the "Torchlight" IP for $37.18 million enhances Xindong Company's long-term competitive strategy by eliminating royalty costs and improving profit margins [9][11]. - This IP acquisition allows for greater autonomy in game updates and version iterations, strengthening the long-term stability of product operations [11]. - The integration of the acquired IP into Xindong's product matrix opens opportunities for cross-platform development and derivative content creation, leveraging the company's previous operational success with the IP [12]. Group 3: Strategic Initiatives and Future Outlook - The company plans to repurchase up to 400 million HKD of its shares within five months, indicating management's confidence in future growth [14]. - The upcoming launch of new games, including "Ragnarok RO: Guardians of Eternal Love 2," is expected to further solidify the company's market position and revenue streams [12].