光伏产业链报价上涨，固态电池情绪回暖 20250721 摘要 光伏行业受益于反内卷政策，硅料价格已从底部上涨至 42,000-49,000 元/吨，产能退出加速，预计 9 月底前通过收并购将取得进一步进展。季 节性需求提升有望缓解库存压力，支架（中信博）和银浆（江纳巨合） 等差异化标的受益于大单和业务拓展。 储能市场情绪随光伏改善，甘肃等省份出台容量电价政策，增强了国内 商业模式改善预期。2025 年上半年国内新增装机规模达 42.6GWh，同 比增长约 27-28%，独立储能招标占比达 98.18%，下半年环比上半年 仍有提升空间。 下半年储能板块预期差较大，阳光电源和海博股份被重点推荐。阳光电 源预计业绩超预期，估值修复清晰；海博股份发货情况良好。欧洲和澳 洲补贴修复需求，户用储能公司如爱罗、派能科技、锦浪科技等二季度 业绩向好。 固态电池产业进展超预期，带动三元正极、电解液新技术以及锂电设备 相关标的。PCB 材料行情对铜箔、隔膜等原材料带动明显，铜箔涨幅尤 为显著。机器人领域，浙江荣泰、科达利等公司股价表现突出。 Q&A 当前电信板块的整体表现如何？ 在过去两周内，锂电和电机相关板块表现较强，而风电板 ...

Summary of AIDC Diesel Power Generation Industry Update Industry Overview - The global computing power investment is expected to continue growing, with short-term growth around 40%, then tapering to below 20% [1][2] - New computing power is projected to reach 50 billion Flops in 2025 and may reach 100 billion Flops by 2028, driving demand for diesel engines [1][2] Market Size Estimation - The global demand for diesel generator sets is estimated at approximately 15,000 units in 2025, increasing to 27,000-30,000 units by 2028 [1][4] - Research institutions estimate an annual increase of about 38 GW in power, corresponding to approximately 24,400 units, with a market size of around 36.6 billion RMB [1][4] - The long-term market size could reach 50 billion RMB [1][4] Key Players in the Industry - Major global diesel engine manufacturers include Cummins, Caterpillar, MTU, Weichai, Yuchai, and Shanghai Liyuan, which hold significant market shares [1][5] - These companies' capacity expansion rates have not kept pace with the 40% demand growth, leading to ongoing supply-demand tension [1][6][7] Company-Specific Insights Weichai Power - Weichai Power is expected to ship over 1,000 units of AIDC diesel engines in 2025, a significant increase from 380 units in 2024 [1][8] - The company benefits from Baudouin technology and support from PSI, enhancing its performance in the heavy-duty truck sector [1][8] Yuchai International - Yuchai International, in partnership with MTU, has shown strong performance in high-end data center applications and has gained qualifications for AI DC diesel power supply from leading domestic internet companies [1][9] - The company is expected to have a favorable trend in domestic substitution [1][9] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of diesel engines is currently very tight, particularly due to the rapid investment in global data centers [2][10] - The demand for AIDC diesel power generation is expected to grow by about 40% in 2025, but supply growth remains inconsistent, exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance [10] Financial Performance - Cummins reported a 19% year-over-year revenue growth in its Power Generation segment, with EBITDA as a percentage of revenue rising from 18% to 23.6% [3][11] - This growth is attributed to increased demand for data center power generation, better pricing, and internal operational improvements [11] Domestic Substitution Opportunities - Chinese companies like Weichai Power and Yuchai International have significant potential for domestic substitution, supported by technology and market positioning [1][12] - Weichai Power's capabilities in natural gas engines and Yuchai's strong performance in high-end applications position them well for growth in the global AI DC market [12][13]

关税谈判超预期下的电新板块机会梳理 20250513 摘要 • 美国对中国锂电池及相关产品关税政策调整频繁，短期内储能电池总税率 降至 40.9%，但若未来三个月无协议，将升至 64.5%，2026 年或进一步 上调，影响下游储能项目经济性及美国本土装机需求，短期内可能出现抢 装潮。 • 动力电池受 IRA 条款及 FEOC 限制，对美直接敞口不大；消费电子锂电池、 电动工具电源等对美间接敞口较大，受关税影响，市场担忧需求萎缩及供 应链切换，相关公司股价已出现调整。 • 美国储能需求占全球 30%，关税下调预计边际改善明显，40%多的总税 率下，储能项目 IRR 可支撑产业链分担。特斯拉北美储能需求将更有保障， 预计利润将上修到 3.5 亿美元。 • 3M 公司储能业务出货预期受关税影响曾被市场悲观抹去，但港股发行压 制因素改善推动股价上涨，若储能抢装落地，业绩和估值有望向上修正， 2026 年海外产能释放将改善关税风险。 • 宏发股份对美直接敞口较小，但间接敞口较大，受益于关税下调及未发货 订单确认，二季度毛利率有望改善，全年利润维持高位，具备投资价值。 Q&A 美国对华关税调整对锂电池和新能源车零部件行业 ...