BNPL is expanding fast, and that should worry everyone https://t.co/dxgaqwCpEy ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total Payment Volume (TPV) grew by 18%, revenue increased by 10%, and net income rose by 12% year-over-year [3][4] - Excluding the impact of smartphone supply issues, GMV growth would have been 20%, with revenue up 32% and net income growth at 16% [3][4][5] - The fintech segment reported a 16% growth in Total Financial Volume (TFV) and a 24% increase in revenue [4][41] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Payments segment showed robust growth with TPV up 18% and revenue growth of 10% [31][32] - Marketplace GMV grew by 12%, but would have been 20% without smartphone supply disruptions [33][34] - E-grocery business saw a GMV increase of 53% and transaction growth of 55% [7][8] - Advertising revenue grew by 56% year-over-year, indicating strong performance in the marketplace [13][38] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The smartphone supply disruption had an 8% impact on GMV and a 3% impact on consolidated income [5][6] - The competitive position in e-commerce remains strong, with expectations for recovery as supply issues resolve [35][36] - The travel segment's GMV grew by 13% in Q3, with a take rate increase of 50 basis points [37] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is focusing on enhancing user experience and product quality to drive growth [55][56] - Plans to expand the e-grocery business and integrate more banks into the payment platform [8][9] - The introduction of innovative payment methods, such as "Pay by Palm," aims to enhance consumer flexibility [12][13] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expects a favorable recovery in smartphone supply starting March 2026, which will positively impact growth [35][49] - The high-interest rate environment is anticipated to normalize, providing additional performance positives for the next year [6][42] - The company is optimistic about the growth potential in advertising services, which are expected to outpace other revenue streams [57][59] Other Important Information - The company announced a $400 million ADS buyback program to return cash to shareholders [4][49] - The introduction of new technologies, such as Kaspi Ai, aims to improve merchant experiences and drive sales [16][22] Q&A Session Summary Question: Updates on Hepsiburada and competitive environment in Turkey - Management emphasized the focus on high-quality products and user experience as key growth drivers, with no significant need for capital investments anticipated [55][56] Question: Insights on advertising product growth and potential - Management highlighted the development of a full range of advertising services, with expectations for faster growth than other revenue streams [57][59] Question: Clarification on marketplace take rate increase - The increase in take rate is driven by additional services such as advertising and delivery, rather than higher seller fees [64] Question: Current trends regarding smartphone supply impact - Management noted that supply remains constrained, particularly for new models, but expects a favorable comp starting in March 2026 [70][71]

Core Insights - The article emphasizes the importance of conducting personal in-depth research and due diligence before making investment decisions, highlighting the inherent risks involved in trading [3]. Group 1 - The analysis is intended solely for informational purposes and should not be interpreted as professional investment advice [3]. - There is a clear disclaimer regarding the lack of any stock, option, or derivative positions in the companies mentioned, indicating a neutral stance [2]. - The article expresses the author's personal opinions and does not reflect any business relationships with the companies discussed [2].

Core Insights - The report titled "Saudi Arabia Cards and Payments: Opportunities and Risks to 2029" provides a comprehensive analysis of the Saudi cards and payments industry, focusing on market trends, performance indicators, and competitive landscape [1][2][3]. Market Overview - The report covers current and forecast values for various markets within the Saudi cards and payments industry, including debit, credit, and charge cards [6]. - It includes detailed insights into payment instruments such as cash, card, credit transfer, direct debits, and cheques, along with an overview of alternative payment instruments [6]. - The competitive landscape is analyzed, detailing market shares of issuers and schemes [2][4]. Payment Instruments - The report provides a thorough analysis of payment instruments, highlighting the growth of contactless payments driven by the mada POS-supporting NFC payments and the introduction of Apple Pay's Express Transit mode for public transport [7]. - The adoption of Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) solutions is increasing, with significant funding raised by BNPL firms like Tabby, which secured SAR 600 million ($160 million) in February 2025 [7]. Ecommerce Payments - The report discusses the government's initiatives to support ecommerce growth, including the organization of E-commerce Week by the General Authority for Small and Medium Enterprises (Monsha'at) to promote ecommerce among entrepreneurs [7]. Regulatory Environment - Detailed regulatory policies and recent changes in the regulatory structure governing the Saudi cards and payments industry are covered, providing insights into the market drivers and regulations [3][6].

Group 1: BILL Holdings, Inc - JP Morgan analyst Tien-tsin Huang hosted 17 payments and processing firms at the Global TMC Conference in Boston, maintaining an Overweight rating on BILL Holdings with a price target of $55 [1] - BILL is recognized as a category killer in SMB AP Automation, effectively displacing manual and legacy solutions, including paper check processing [1] - Huang sees potential for BILL to reclaim its status as a top growth name through cross-selling recent acquisitions, leveraging partnerships with banks and accountants, and helping SMBs reduce costs via automation [2] - Projected fourth-quarter revenue for BILL is $376 million with an adjusted EPS of $0.41 [2] - As of the last check, BILL's stock is down 0.41% at $46.07 [5] Group 2: Fiserv, Inc - Huang maintains an Overweight rating on Fiserv with a price target of $210, slightly down from $211 [2] - Fiserv is viewed as a dependable growth story, with mid-teens EPS growth driven by double-digit top-line growth, operating leverage, and capital deployment [3] - The company has a solid portfolio, including its Clover product, which is gaining market share and growing faster than peers [3] - Projected second-quarter revenue for Fiserv is $5.19 billion with an adjusted EPS of $2.39 [3] Group 3: Marqeta, Inc - Huang upgraded Marqeta's rating to Overweight from Neutral, with a price target of $6, up from $5 [4] - Marqeta's platform supports card programs in high-growth areas of fintech, including BNPL and digital banking, with notable clients like Block and Affirm [4] - Projected second-quarter revenue for Marqeta is $140 million with an adjusted EPS of $(0.05) [4] Group 4: Remitly Global, Inc - Huang has an Overweight rating on Remitly with a price target of $25, viewing it as a mission-driven disruptor in the remittance market [5] - Remitly is experiencing durable growth with a 34% year-to-date revenue increase and 4% market penetration [5] - Projected revenue CAGR for Remitly through 2027 is 21%, one of the highest in Huang's coverage [5] - Projected second-quarter revenue for Remitly is $385 million with an adjusted EPS of $0.19 [5]