Group 1 - WTI crude oil is testing both the 50-day moving average and the downward trend line of a descending wedge pattern, indicating a potential breakout [1] - Momentum indicators such as MACD and RSI are showing bullish divergence, suggesting that selling pressure is gradually weakening [1] - A confirmed breakout above the wedge's upper boundary could trigger short covering and new long positions, shifting market sentiment back to bullish [1] Group 2 - Gold mining stocks have significantly outperformed all sectors of the S&P 500 this year, reflecting typical stagflation market behavior [3] - ANZ Bank has raised its year-end gold price forecast to $3,800 per ounce from $3,600, with expectations for gold to reach nearly $4,000 per ounce by June 2026 [6] - The year-end target price for silver has also been increased to $44.7 per ounce [6] Group 3 - The CNN Fear and Greed Index is signaling a warning, with a bearish head and shoulders pattern forming, indicating potential market sentiment deterioration [8] - The neckline of this pattern is at the critical level of 50, and a breakdown could lead to increased risks for the overall market [8] Group 4 - There is an expectation for a rapid decline in gold prices in the days leading up to the FOMC decision, with specific projected pathways outlined [11]

当地时间周五， 美股开盘涨跌不一，标普500指数跌0.05%。戴尔科技跌超6%，第四季度营收逊于预期。英伟达跌逾2%。 多个指标显示，美国投 资者的恐慌情绪升至历史高点。 此外，一则有关美国政府将对金融市场进行重大改革的传闻，让市场不确定性再次提升。 恐慌指标不乐观 BespokeInvestmentGroup的分析师在周四的一份报告中指出："市场情绪发生了什么变化？无论从哪个角度来看，恐慌情绪都已渗透到投资者的集体心理。"该 机构列举了多项反映市场恐慌情绪上升的指标，显示出投资者信心的明显恶化。 在经济前景方面，经济不确定性指数（EconomicPolicyUncertainty，EPU）已超过新冠疫情最严重时期的水平。 该指数主要通过分析新闻报道、政府声明、 政策变动频率等因素来反映政策的不确定性。指数由美国学者ScottR. Baker、NicholasBloom和StevenJ.Davis于2016年提出，旨在量化由于政策变化带来的不 确定性对经济活动的影响。EPU指数通常与宏观经济变量如投资、消费、就业等存在显著的负相关关系，表示政策不确定性增大时，企业和消费者往往会表 现出谨慎行为，影响经济增长。 ...