证券研究报告 | 金融工程 gszqdatemark 2025 07 06 年 月 日 量化周报 市场未来有望继续上行 市场未来有望继续上行。本周（ 6.30-7.4），大盘震荡上行，上证指数全周 收涨 1.40%。在此背景下，基础化工、电力设备及新能源确认日线级别上 涨。当下，我们认为市场再次回到 4 月 7 日低点的概率基本不存在了。由 于上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、中证 1000、深证成指、创 业板指仍处于日线级别上涨中，且还有部分指数和板块没有确认日线上 涨，因此我们认为市场的日线级别上涨还要持续一段时间，市场未来有望 继续上行。中期来看，上证指数、上证 50、沪深 300、中证 500、深证成 指、创业板指、科创 50 纷纷确认周线级别上涨，而且在日线上只走出了 1-3 浪结构，中期牛市刚刚开始；此外，已有 21 个行业处于周线级别上涨 中，且 7 个行业周线上涨只走了 1 浪结构，因此我们认为本轮牛市刚刚开 始，而且还是个普涨格局。中期对于投资者而言，仍然可以逆势布局。 A 股景气指数观察。截至 2025 年 7 月 4 日，A 股景气指数为 21.59，相 比 2023 年 ...

Economic Negotiations Progress - The UK and US have reached a limited trade agreement covering automotive (10% tariff) and aerospace (duty-free) sectors, but steel and pharmaceutical tariffs remain unresolved [1] - Canada has restarted negotiations with the US after canceling the digital services tax on June 30, aiming to reach an agreement by July 21, while previously imposing a 50% tariff on over-quota steel without further adjustments mentioned [1] - The EU is willing to accept a 10% universal tariff but seeks quotas and exemptions for automotive and steel products, along with lower tax rates for critical industries like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors, while insisting on digital sovereignty not being negotiable [1] - Japan faces a key obstacle with a 25% automotive tariff, with the Japanese side prepared for potential delays in negotiations, while Trump hinted at unilaterally imposing a 30%-35% tariff and threatening to issue a warning to Japan [1] - South Korea proposed a "comprehensive solution" including exemptions for automotive and steel tariffs, but the US remains cautious, with South Korea requesting an extension for negotiations, expected to be decided by July 8 [1] India-US Negotiation Stalemate - The negotiations between India and the US are currently stalled, with India seeking the removal of reciprocal tariffs and concessions on steel and automotive tariffs, while maintaining agriculture as a "red line"; the US desires further reductions in tariffs on agricultural products, automobiles, and alcoholic beverages [2] US Position and Actions - The US Agriculture Secretary indicated that Trump may exempt tariffs on agricultural products that are difficult to grow domestically, such as cocoa beans or coffee [3] - A "final ultimatum" has been issued, warning that if negotiations fail, tariffs could revert to a maximum of 50% by July 9, with Trump stating he does not plan to extend the negotiation deadline [3] - The US is adjusting its negotiation strategy by seeking to narrow the scope of trade agreements, allowing countries that agree to these limited agreements to avoid harsher reciprocal tariffs, while still imposing the existing 10% basic tariff; reports suggest that the US will prioritize negotiations with India before addressing issues with Japan [3]

Group 1 - UBS forecasts a 6% year-on-year growth in EPS for the CSI 300 A-shares by 2025, assuming current US-China tariffs remain unchanged [1] - A-shares are expected to experience limited downside with potential upward catalysts from policy changes, long-term capital inflows, and structural reforms [1] - The "national team" may increase holdings to stabilize the market in extreme scenarios [1] Group 2 - UBS analyzed five categories of capital flows and their potential impact on market styles amid macroeconomic uncertainties [2] - Central Huijin, representing the "national team," significantly entered the market during corrections, with 70% of its investments flowing into the CSI 300 ETF in 2024 [2] - Long-term investors and insurance companies favor high-dividend stocks and bank shares, creating a synergistic effect with Central Huijin [2] - Retail and short-term investors, along with quantitative funds, are expected to drive small-cap stocks to outperform large-cap stocks [2] - Public funds are facing sluggish issuance, negatively impacting growth sectors dominated by public funds [2] - Southbound capital is anticipated to continue flowing into new economy sectors, albeit at a slightly slower pace [2] Group 3 - UBS outlines five scenarios for industry preferences and investment themes [3] - Export-oriented industries, domestic consumption, and high-dividend sectors are highlighted across various scenarios, with a focus on technology and AI [6] - Easing trade tensions could benefit export-oriented sectors and boost high-beta industries, while defensive and high-dividend stocks may attract more investor interest under adverse conditions [6] - Strong policy stimulus is expected to benefit the consumption and real estate sectors the most, while moderate policy efforts may lead to inflows into service industries and AI themes [6] Group 4 - A list of recommended stocks includes PetroChina, Yangtze Power, and others, with respective price targets and upside potential [7] - PetroChina has a market cap of 165.08 billion RMB, with a target price of 11.80 RMB, indicating a 31% upside [7] - NAURA Technology shows a significant upside potential of 37% with a target price of 566.50 RMB [7] - Tuopu has the highest upside potential at 75%, with a target price of 81.00 RMB [7]

金十图示：2025年06月12日（周四）富时中国A50指数成分股午盘收盘行情一览：保险板块飘红，酿酒板块走低 保险 队 中国人保 中国太保 中国平安 明 3772.31亿市值 3477.75亿市值 9993.78亿市值 22.50亿成交额 7.44亿成交额 7.45亿成交额 8.53 36.15 54.88 +0.49(+1.37%) +0.13(+1.55%) +0.42(+0.77%) 酸酒行业 贵州茅台 五粮液 山西汾酒 18484.83亿市值 2132.13亿市值 4778.65亿市值 28.12亿成交额 44.45亿成交额 9.73亿成交额 123.11 1471.49 174.77 -1.59(-1.28%) -8.51(-0.58%) -2.33(-1.32%) 半导体 北方华创 寒武纪-U 海光信息 HYGON 2161.91亿市值 2538.14亿市值 3164.82亿市值 19.29亿成交额 17.54亿成交额 17.63亿成交额 404.72 608.00 136.16 -12.03(-2.89%) +7.80(+1.30%) +0.66(+0.49%) 汽车整车 铁路公路 比亚迪 长城 ...

上市公司不仅是股民的投资对象、股民们希望通过它们赚钱，同时也是众多劳动者的就业单位。Wind 数据显示，截至6月5日，A股共有31个一级行业（申万）、5400多家上市公司。 这些上市公司提供了多少就业岗位？哪些行业的员工"赚"得更多？ 随着2024年上市公司年报的披露，财通证券统计了相关数据： 1、员工总数增长，平均月薪约10800元 整体来看，员工数量方面，疫情后我国上市公司员工总数仍旧保持增长，2024年上市公司员工总数超过 2500万人。 平均月薪方面，2024年上市公司员工平均月薪水平在10800元左右。 2、国有大型银行员工人数最多 财通证券选择了2024年员工人数最多的前10个行业作为代表，所选员工总数占全市场上市公司员工总数 的36.2%。 从行业分类来看，2024年上市公司中，吸纳就业最多的行业主要是金融、汽车、建筑地产和消费电子。 其中，国有大型银行员工总数最多，达165.5万人，增速为0.4%，占全市场就业总数的6.5%；其次是乘 用车行业，员工为140.9万人，增速为21.3%，占总数的5.5%。 3、汽车、电子行业贡献了较多的新增就业 从变化趋势来看，乘用车、汽车零部件、消费电子的员工 ...

分析师：张刚 登记编码：S0730511010001 zhanggang@ccnew.com 021-50586990 通信有色行业领涨 A 股窄幅波动 ——市场分析 相关报告 《市场分析：成长行业领涨 A 股小幅波动》 2025-06-05 周五 A 股市场冲高遇阻、小幅震荡上扬，早盘股指低开后震荡上 行，盘中沪指在 3390 点附近遭遇阻力，午后股指维持震荡，盘中通 信服务、采掘、有色金属以及半导体等行业表现较好；珠宝首饰、 美容护理、食品饮料以及医疗服务等行业表现较弱，沪指全天基本 呈现小幅震荡整理的运行特征。当前上证综指与创业板指数的平均 市盈率分别为 13.86 倍、36.87 倍，处于近三年中位数平均水平， 适合中长期布局。两市周五成交金额 11774 亿元，处于近三年日均 成交量中位数区域上方。中国经济延续温和复苏态势，消费与投资 成为核心驱动力。服务消费保持强劲回升，高技术制造业投资持续 领先，共同支撑经济基本面。近期国家落地一揽子货币政策，包括 降准降息及结构性工具创新，重点支持科技创新、普惠金融和消费 领域，为市场注入流动性信心。物价指数呈现温和回升迹象，企业 盈利预期边际改善。4 月规模 ...

韩国股市大涨。 6月4日，韩国股市大涨，截至发稿，韩国综合指数涨近2%，韩国KOSDAQ指数涨超1%。 | < W | | | 韩国综合指数(KS11) | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | 06-04 09:39:00 延时行情 | | | | 2751.0500 | | 昨收 | 2698.9700 | 成交额 | 0 | | 52.0800 | 1.93% | 今开 | 2737.9200 | 成交量 | 1.6亿 | | 上 涨 | 632 | 파 물 | 64 | 下 跌 | 144 | | 最高价 | 2751.0500 | 市盈率 | 0.0 | 近20日 | 7.47% | | 最低价 | 2734.0200 | 市净率 | 0.00 | 今年来 | 14.65% | | 分时 | 五日 | 目K | 周K | 月Ｋ | 申务 ( | | 叠加 | | | | | | | 2751,0500 | | | | | 1.93% | | | | | | | 0.00% | | 2646.8899 | | | 当前为延时行情 获取实时行 ...

登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 今年以来，受AI技术突破驱动，港股科技板块在一季度表现尤为突出，恒生科技指数（指数代码： HSTECH.HI）一度领涨全球，但进入二季度后波动明显加大。 事实上，这是港股科技板块自2024年2月以来一波大级别行情中的阶段震荡。长城恒生科技指数QDII拟 任基金经理雷俊表示，近期的波动一方面是因为板块内部交易结构过热，部分短线资金获利了结，另一 方面则是受到海外关税政策的扰动。但是波动并不影响港股科技板块的长期投资价值。 在雷俊看来，主要原因包括：一是港股市场汇聚了众多科技互联网龙头企业，这些企业在AI技术研 发、应用场景拓展等方面积极布局，或将深度受益于国内AI的发展；二是政策的持续呵护或将加速推 动科技成果转化和产业化，叠加近期降准降息双双落地，也有望提振港股科技资产盈利表现；三是近年 来南向资金持续"扫货"港股，非必需性消费、资讯科技业、医疗保健业、电讯业等科技相关行业成为主 要流入阵地，科技板块或持续受益于流动性支撑。 另一方面，恒生科技的成份股多为基本面优质、成长性较高的科技龙头，这也使得指数具备较强的业绩 弹性。Wind数据显示，截至5月27日，恒生 ...

本报记者 毛艺融 近年来，监管层对上市公司资金占用问题的监管日益趋严。5月9日，证监会发布的《上市公司募集资金 监管规则》提出，上市公司发现控股股东、实际控制人及其他关联人占用募集资金的，应当及时要求归 还，并披露占用发生的原因、对公司的影响、清偿整改方案及整改进展情况。5月26日，证监会有关负 责同志就《关于完善中国特色现代企业制度的意见》答记者提问时表示："下一步，中国证监会将贯彻 落实《意见》有关要求，不断完善上市公司治理规则，推动出台上市公司监督管理条例，加大对组织指 使造假、资金占用等违法行为的打击力度"。 同花顺iFinD数据显示，按处罚日期计，截至5月28日记者发稿，年内监管层（证监会、沪深北交易所、 各地证监局）针对资金占用问题对上市公司采取行政监管措施或行政处罚共48单，涉及37家公司，主要 包括警告、罚款、责令改正、记入诚信档案、公开谴责等；同时，还对165名自然人采取行政监管措施 或行政处罚，主要包括公司实际控制人、董监高，涉及取消董监高任职资格、罚款、市场禁入等处罚类 型。 紧抓"关键少数" 资金占用是资本市场一大顽疾。部分上市公司的大股东，将上市公司资金视为个人私人财产，随意取 用" ...

Group 1 - China Merchants Energy announced the termination of the restructuring plan for its subsidiaries, China Merchants Container Shipping and China Merchants Roll-on Roll-off, due to lack of consensus on transaction terms and changes in market conditions [1] - The company will maintain its current equity structure, while Antong Holdings will take over the controlling stake of the subsidiaries [1] - China Merchants Container Shipping operates 30 vessels with a total capacity of 47,678 TEU, ranking 34th among global liner companies [1] Group 2 - Muyuan Foods has submitted an application for the issuance and listing of H-shares on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, with the application materials published on the exchange's website [1] - In 2024, Muyuan Foods achieved a revenue of 137.947 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24.43%, and a net profit of 18.925 billion yuan, up 554.07% [2] - The company sold 71.602 million pigs, including 65.477 million market pigs and 1.2524 million slaughtered pigs, with pork product sales totaling 141,590 tons [2] Group 3 - Optoelectronics Co. received approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for its application to issue shares to specific investors [3] - Xingqi Eye Medicine plans to raise no more than 850 million yuan through a private placement of shares for research and development center construction and working capital [4] - Jinyang Co. intends to issue convertible bonds to raise no more than 980 million yuan for lithium battery precision components projects and working capital [5] Group 4 - Nanjing Chemical Fiber received approval from the Jiangsu Provincial State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission for a major asset swap and fundraising plan [8] - Zhongcheng Co. plans to acquire 100% equity of Zhongji Jiangsu and raise funds from no more than 35 specific investors, enhancing its capabilities in energy storage projects [8] Group 5 - Guotai Haitong plans to increase its capital by 1.5 billion yuan to Guotai Junan Futures for net capital supplementation [9] - Zhinan Compass's chairman resigned due to personal reasons, with the vice chairman temporarily taking over the responsibilities [10] Group 6 - Youa Co. intends to acquire 100% equity of Shenzhen Shangyangtong for 1.58 billion yuan, marking a strategic shift into the power semiconductor sector [11] - ST Dongjing is planning a change in control, with stock suspension starting from May 28, 2025, due to negotiations with a third party [12] - Su Shi Testing plans to acquire 23.73% equity of its subsidiary Su Shi Yite for 336 million yuan, increasing its stake from 73.82% to 97.55% [13] Group 7 - Wangzi New Materials elected Wang Jinjun as chairman and appointed him as CEO for a three-year term [14] - Nanjing Public Utilities plans to merge its wholly-owned subsidiary to optimize management structure and reduce costs [14] - Western Securities plans to issue up to 1 billion yuan in technology innovation corporate bonds to supplement working capital [14] Group 8 - Lutianhua intends to acquire 100% equity of Luzhou Hongsheng Chemical Park Operations for 676 million yuan, facilitating its project implementation [15] - Camel Group elected Liu Changle as chairman during its board meeting [15] - Yapu Co. plans to purchase approximately 54.5% of Yingshuang Technology for about 578 million yuan to enhance its automotive parts strategy [15] Group 9 - Luoping Zinc Electric is planning a change in control, with stock suspension starting from May 28, 2025, pending regulatory approval [16]