眼看楼市又到了"金九银十"的传统旺季，深圳这次可不含糊，直接放出"大招"——在购房门槛、企业购房限制和房贷利率三方面打出"组合拳"。今天小夏就 从深圳楼市的新动作出发，聊聊一线城市最近这波政策，以及对房地产行业的影响。 这次深圳9月5日重磅发布的楼市新政，最大的亮点就是降低了购房门槛。（深圳市住房和建设局 20250905） 限购区域直接缩小到福田、南山和宝安新安街道这三块核心区域，其余非核心区域彻底打破了此前的套数限制，像在罗湖、龙岗、龙华等地，只要是有深圳 户口，或者是社保个税交满一年的家庭，想买多少套都行；就算没有户口，社保个税也不到一年，也能买两套，这对很多刚来深圳打拼，或者灵活就业的小 伙伴来说，可是不小的利好。而盐田和大鹏新区，更是完全放开，不管你是不是本地人，有没有交过社保，都能直接买房。同时，还消除了此前单身人士与 家庭在购房套数上的差别。 企业购房方面也放宽了条件。对于核心区域，企业从"无购房资格"变为"有条件准入"，非核心区则干脆取消了此前的年限、税款、员工数量限制，大大降低 了企业购房门槛。（每日经济新闻 20250906） 那市场表现怎么样呢？小夏带大家感受一下。 北京新政落地一个月， ...

Group 1: Real Estate Sales - The real estate market in first and second-tier cities shows signs of marginal recovery, with new home sales experiencing a year-on-year decline that has narrowed to 3.58% [5][10] - In first-tier cities, the year-on-year decline in new home sales has significantly narrowed to 3.66%, while second-tier cities have seen a positive year-on-year change [5][19] - Second-hand home sales in major cities have generally increased compared to the previous period and last year, with notable growth in most cities [19] Group 2: Investment and Commodity Prices - Commodity prices are generally on a downward trend, with slight decreases in rebar and cement prices, while glass futures prices have seen a small increase [23][49] - The price index for asphalt has decreased, indicating ongoing weak market demand [23] Group 3: Production and Operating Rates - The operating rates for various industries, including steel mills and asphalt production, have generally increased, indicating a positive trend in production activity [34] - The operating rate for oil asphalt has seen a significant increase from 28.1% to 34.9% [3] Group 4: Consumer Activity - Consumer activity shows strong momentum, with subway ridership exceeding seasonal expectations, while automotive consumption and domestic flight operations align with seasonal trends [39] Group 5: Export Trends - The SCFI index has declined, indicating a decrease in container shipping rates, while the BDI index has increased, suggesting a rise in dry bulk shipping rates [43] Group 6: Price Trends - Pork prices have seen a slight increase, while vegetable prices have decreased, and oil prices have risen, reflecting mixed trends in consumer prices [49]

9月5日深夜，深圳楼市再次迎来松绑。 深圳市住建局、中国人民银行深圳市中心支行联合发布房地产新政，在购房资格、企业购房限制、房贷利率三方面打出组合拳，自9月6日起正式施行。 根据新政，非深户即便未缴满1年社保或个税，也可在罗湖、龙岗等多个区域限购2套住房；盐田、大鹏新区完全取消购房资格审核；企业购房限制大幅放 宽，非核心区域无需资格审核；房贷利率不再区分首套与二套，由银行自主定价。 今年6月，广州宣布全面取消限购、限售、限价，8月北京、上海也优化调整了楼市政策，至此，一线城市均完成了新一轮松绑。 9月6日上午，广东省城乡规划院住房政策研究中心首席研究员李宇嘉向《每日经济新闻》记者分析称，深圳的政策力度比京沪更大，外围区域退出限购略 超预期。 "吸引外地人群购房" 每经记者注意到，此次新政最显著的变化是对购房资格和套数实行分区差异化调整，将深圳楼市划分为多个梯度区域，放松力度从核心区向外围逐步加 大。 具体来看，在罗湖、宝安（不含新安街道）、龙岗、龙华、坪山、光明等区域，深圳户籍居民家庭，或非深户但在购房前连续缴纳1年以上社保或个税的 家庭，购买商品住房不限套数，彻底打破此前的套数限制。 即便是未满足1年社保或 ...

Core Viewpoint - Suzhou has lifted its last housing market restriction, indicating a significant downturn in the real estate market, with new home sales plummeting by 70% in July compared to the previous month [1][4]. Group 1: Policy Changes - On August 26, Suzhou announced the cancellation of new home sales restrictions, leading to an immediate increase of over 3,000 second-hand homes listed online [1]. - Since 2022, Suzhou has gradually relaxed housing policies, starting with easing restrictions on second-hand home transactions [1][4]. - Other cities, such as Nanjing, are expected to follow Suzhou's lead in lifting sales restrictions, reflecting a broader trend across second and third-tier cities [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The most significant price drops are observed in new homes, as the previous sales restrictions had been protecting their prices [3]. - The influx of second-hand homes into the market has led to aggressive price competition, with some listings seeing price cuts of up to 50% [3]. - The current market is characterized by urgent sales, with real estate agents reporting a surge in properties being sold at discounted prices [3]. Group 3: Economic Implications - The situation in Suzhou, as a major economic city, suggests that other cities may face even greater challenges in their real estate markets [4][6]. - The lifting of restrictions indicates that local governments are struggling to manage declining tax revenues from property transactions, leading to a reliance on market self-adjustment [6]. - The overall sentiment in the market is that property values are unlikely to rise in the near future, shifting the focus to genuine housing needs rather than speculative investments [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The "8·25 New Policy" in Shanghai is designed to benefit wealthy individuals and landlords, rather than the general public, by stimulating high-net-worth purchasing power and providing a way for landlords in outer ring areas to exit the market gracefully [1][9]. Group 1: Policy Changes - The most significant change is the removal of purchase restrictions for properties outside the outer ring, allowing individuals with Shanghai purchase qualifications to buy any number of properties [2]. - Single individuals now have equal purchasing rights as families, enabling them to buy multiple properties, which primarily benefits financially independent wealthy singles [4][5]. - The policy allows for the extraction of public housing funds for down payments without affecting loan limits, but this is limited to new homes and ties future income to real estate [5][7]. Group 2: Beneficiaries - The primary beneficiaries are middle-class individuals who own properties in the city, allowing them to upgrade to better housing in outer areas [4]. - Wealthy individuals, including successful entrepreneurs and affluent young people, are expected to purchase properties aggressively in high-demand areas [4][5]. - Landlords in outer ring areas gain an advantage as they can now buy city properties without needing to sell their existing ones first, avoiding significant losses [8]. Group 3: Financial Implications - The cancellation of the interest rate distinction between first and second homes is aimed at reducing monthly payment burdens, effectively inviting investors back into the market [7]. - The exemption of property tax for non-local buyers purchasing their first home serves as a corrective measure to encourage purchases in the context of the new policy [7][9]. - The overall design of the policy focuses on facilitating financial flow and stimulating the market, primarily benefiting wealthier individuals and landlords [9].

Core Viewpoint - The recent real estate market is experiencing significant declines in housing prices, particularly in the second-hand housing market, raising concerns among potential buyers and investors [1][3]. Group 1: Overall Market Situation - In June, the average price of second-hand residential properties in 100 cities was 13,691 yuan per square meter, reflecting a month-on-month decline of 0.75%, which is an increase in the decline rate by 0.4 percentage points compared to May [3]. - Year-on-year, the price dropped by 7.26%, with the decline rate also widening by 0.02 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - The continuous decline in housing prices, particularly when the month-on-month drop exceeds 0.7%, indicates a significant market contraction that can lead to a cumulative annual decline of around 10% [3]. Group 2: City-Level Analysis - First-tier cities saw a month-on-month price drop of 0.56%, while second-tier and third/fourth-tier cities experienced declines of 0.81% and 0.76%, respectively [3]. - Although first-tier cities have the smallest decline, the acceleration in the drop from 0.36% in May to 0.56% in June suggests a concerning trend [3][4]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The easing of restrictions in the real estate market since September last year initially alleviated pressure on first-tier cities, but the effects appear to have diminished as demand has been largely consumed [5]. - The increasing number of listings indicates a shift in market dynamics, favoring buyers as sellers are compelled to lower prices to attract buyers [6]. - The rise in listings, particularly in first-tier cities, suggests a supply-demand imbalance, leading to further price reductions [6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The potential for a new wave of selling could emerge if market expectations are not met, particularly if further policy relaxations do not stabilize the market [9]. - The company advises sellers to capitalize on potential market rebounds in 2025, as this period may coincide with policy-driven demand surges [10].

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials (steel) sector is short - term oscillatory and bullish [1] 2. Report's Core View - The black building materials (steel) market showed significant price increases on Wednesday and night trading. Although the macro and news aspects are favorable, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly, so the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose significantly, and the night trading closed higher [1] 3.2 Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued [1] - As of June 30, 27 cities introduced 34 real - estate market relaxation policies, with many areas optimizing housing provident fund policies, and some cities extending relevant relaxation policy periods [1] - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing recently investigated the transformation and upgrading and innovation development of the manufacturing industry in Hubei, emphasizing the focus on the real economy and promoting high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally increased with good trading volume. Futures prices also rose significantly. In the industrial aspect, due to the decline in raw material prices such as coke, scrap steel, and iron ore, the profit of building materials improved, with a profit of about 100 yuan per ton of steel. Some blast furnaces resumed production but not at full capacity. Electric furnaces continued to suffer deep losses, with a loss of 100 - 150 yuan per ton during off - peak hours, and production continued to decline. The total actual steel supply only increased slightly. The emission reduction and production restriction in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 are beneficial to the market but have little impact on overall production. On the demand side, due to hot and rainy weather, demand continued to show off - season characteristics. The recent central meeting may briefly support the market. The upper resistance level of the rebar main contract moved up to 3100 after breaking through 3050, with an important support level at 2912. The support level of hot - rolled coils is 3026, with a resistance level of 3282 after breaking through 3200. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - With the positive macro and news factors already reflected in the market, and without obvious improvement in the fundamentals, the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1]

Group 1 - New housing prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, while second-hand housing prices rose by 1%, ranking first in the country [1] - New commodity housing transactions reached 7,049 units, a month-on-month growth of 184%; second-hand housing transactions totaled 12,413 units, with a month-on-month increase of 108% and a year-on-year growth of 45%, marking the highest transaction volume in nearly 8 years [1][3] - Recent policy adjustments in Hangzhou aim to reduce transaction taxes, lowering the deed tax from 3% to 1% for multiple home purchases, effectively reducing the tax burden for buyers [3] Group 2 - The acceleration of policy relaxation in Hangzhou is attributed to a decline in market heat observed in April, with reports of reduced property viewings and lower transaction expectations [6] - A recent meeting led by the Premier emphasized the need for more proactive macro policies to stimulate demand, indicating potential for further supportive measures in the real estate market [8] - The changing logic of home buying is influenced by broader economic signals and income expectations, suggesting that market sentiment may remain cautious despite policy support [10]

南京宣布拿出一个亿补贴居民"卖旧房买新房"。 南京还宣布将拿出一亿元资金，用于支持居民"以旧换新"，卖掉旧房并购买名录库内新建商品住房的居 民，有望获得购房合同金额1%的补助。 此次南京楼市新政最值得关注的就是"全面取消限售"，不同于"限购"，"限售"是指解除新房限售期。 早在2017年5月13日，在当时南京新房市场火爆的大背景下，南京出台了"限售令"，购房人（含居民家 庭）新购住房在取得不动产权证后，三年内不得转让。政策对于买房人出售手中房源的时间进行了限制 性措施，以防止炒房客从中牟利。 此后南京新房三年限售的政策，延续了近8年时间，尽管从2022年起至今曾有两次放松，一次是将"取得 《不动产权证》满3年"调整为"自合同备案之日起满3年"；一次是允许两类人群解除限售：一是购买新 建商品房的家庭，其名下处于限售期的二手房可上市交易；二是二孩及多孩家庭且有未成年子女的，其 名下处于限售期的二手房也可上市交易。 今天，南京终于彻底取消了"限售令"。此外，南京也是核心二线城市中最早宣布取消商品房限购的，早 在2023年9月就已全面取消。至此南京楼市中的限制令已经基本消失。 核心二线城市南京再度推出重磅政策，对楼市 ...