近期的房地产市场就像坐过山车，让人的心跟着起起落落。 这不，中指研究院刚公布的6月份百城房价数据，又给市场丢下了一颗"重磅炸弹"，让不少人心里直打 鼓。 先给大家唠唠整体情况。6月的百城二手房市场，那叫一个"跌跌不休"，延续了5月的下跌态势不说，跌 幅还进一步扩大。 就像滚雪球一样，越滚越大。百城二手住宅均价13691元/平方米，环比下跌0.75%，跌幅比上个月多了 0.4个百分点； 同比下跌7.26%，跌幅也比上个月扩大了0.02个百分点。 说起来，从去年9月份楼市大松绑，一线城市二手住宅压力确实缓解了不少，个别月份价格还涨了起 来，就像给市场打了一针"强心剂"。 可现在，这"药效"好像过了。楼市松绑刺激的需求被消化得差不多了，市场重新进入买卖双方的博弈阶 段。 但如今挂牌量一路走高，这博弈的天平明显向买家倾斜。 想象一下，挂牌的房子越来越多，就像菜市场里供过于求的菜品，总有急着出手的业主，为了卖掉房 子，只能一次次压低价格。 要知道，当房价环比跌幅超过0.7%，并且持续几个月，就算咱普通老百姓，也能明显感觉到房价在"缩 水"。 一个月跌0.7%看着不多，但这要是累计一年，总跌幅能达到10%左右。现在买房首 ...

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the black building materials (steel) sector is short - term oscillatory and bullish [1] 2. Report's Core View - The black building materials (steel) market showed significant price increases on Wednesday and night trading. Although the macro and news aspects are favorable, the fundamental situation has not improved significantly, so the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1] 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Market Review - On Wednesday, rebar and hot - rolled coils rose significantly, and the night trading closed higher [1] 3.2 Important Information - The National Development and Reform Commission recently allocated over 300 billion yuan to support the third - batch of "two major" construction projects in 2025, and the 800 - billion - yuan "two major" construction project list for this year has been fully issued [1] - As of June 30, 27 cities introduced 34 real - estate market relaxation policies, with many areas optimizing housing provident fund policies, and some cities extending relevant relaxation policy periods [1] - Vice - Premier Zhang Guoqing recently investigated the transformation and upgrading and innovation development of the manufacturing industry in Hubei, emphasizing the focus on the real economy and promoting high - end, intelligent, and green development of the manufacturing industry [1] 3.3 Market Logic - On Wednesday, the spot prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils generally increased with good trading volume. Futures prices also rose significantly. In the industrial aspect, due to the decline in raw material prices such as coke, scrap steel, and iron ore, the profit of building materials improved, with a profit of about 100 yuan per ton of steel. Some blast furnaces resumed production but not at full capacity. Electric furnaces continued to suffer deep losses, with a loss of 100 - 150 yuan per ton during off - peak hours, and production continued to decline. The total actual steel supply only increased slightly. The emission reduction and production restriction in Tangshan from July 4 - 15 are beneficial to the market but have little impact on overall production. On the demand side, due to hot and rainy weather, demand continued to show off - season characteristics. The recent central meeting may briefly support the market. The upper resistance level of the rebar main contract moved up to 3100 after breaking through 3050, with an important support level at 2912. The support level of hot - rolled coils is 3026, with a resistance level of 3282 after breaking through 3200. The support level of stainless steel is 12300, and the resistance level is 13000 [1] 3.4 Trading Strategy - With the positive macro and news factors already reflected in the market, and without obvious improvement in the fundamentals, the upside potential should be viewed with caution, and the short - term trend is oscillatory and bullish [1]

Group 1 - New housing prices increased by 0.5% month-on-month, while second-hand housing prices rose by 1%, ranking first in the country [1] - New commodity housing transactions reached 7,049 units, a month-on-month growth of 184%; second-hand housing transactions totaled 12,413 units, with a month-on-month increase of 108% and a year-on-year growth of 45%, marking the highest transaction volume in nearly 8 years [1][3] - Recent policy adjustments in Hangzhou aim to reduce transaction taxes, lowering the deed tax from 3% to 1% for multiple home purchases, effectively reducing the tax burden for buyers [3] Group 2 - The acceleration of policy relaxation in Hangzhou is attributed to a decline in market heat observed in April, with reports of reduced property viewings and lower transaction expectations [6] - A recent meeting led by the Premier emphasized the need for more proactive macro policies to stimulate demand, indicating potential for further supportive measures in the real estate market [8] - The changing logic of home buying is influenced by broader economic signals and income expectations, suggesting that market sentiment may remain cautious despite policy support [10]