国产 AI 链的大变化 20251229 国产算力的发展趋势如何？哪些因素会影响其市场表现？ 国产算力的发展趋势呈现出快速增长态势，预计 2026 年同比增长超过 50%。 这一增长主要由以下几个因素驱动： 首先是国内互联网资本开支的增加。随着 政策许可条件放宽以及技术性能提升，国内企业可能会采购更多高性能计算卡， 如 H200。同时，也会有明确的国产算力配比关系，以满足不同应用场景的需 求。 其次是芯片性能的不断提升，包括算力值、存储能力和互联能力等关键指 标。在超节点服务器逐渐普及的大背景下，高效能和性价比成为决定市场份额 的重要因素。此外，不同卡片生态系统的适配情况也是影响其市场表现的重要 指标，因为这直接关系到实际应用中的易用性和效果。 第三个因素是政策端许 可程度。例如英伟达 H200 进入中国市场需要经过审批，其数量多少直接影响 到相关企业的资本开支计划以及整个 AIIDC 产业链的发展进度。因此政策变化 对市场表现具有重要影响。 最后，各种潜在事件如 FAB 厂良率提升、毁片测试 进展等也会穿插其中，对整体需求产生一定波动。但总体而言，在各方共同努 力下，国产算力将在未来几年内保持快速发展态势， ...

Core Viewpoint - AI computing power is becoming the main growth engine in the telecommunications industry, with a focus on investment opportunities in the computing power supply chain and the delivery capabilities of leading optical module manufacturers [1] Group 1: Industry Insights - The computing power sector has shown significant growth, with the semiconductor equipment and AI chip industries facing increased urgency for development due to overseas restrictions, making domestic substitution a prevailing trend [1] - The domestic chip manufacturers have begun to explore solutions such as super nodes to compensate for the performance disadvantages of single cards by leveraging the advantages of multiple card configurations [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The construction of multi-card clusters raises higher demands for the quantity and quality of components, creating greater investment opportunities across the supply chain [1] - Specific segments such as liquid cooling, storage, power supply, optical modules, PCB, and quantum computing are expected to experience higher performance elasticity [1] Group 3: Market Outlook - Since 2025, both Chinese and American technology stocks have performed well, with the computing power sector leading market gains, and there are emerging opportunities on the model and application side [1] - Looking ahead to 2026, the domestic computing power market is expected to thrive, with performance elasticity and investment certainty, potentially replicating the long bull market seen in U.S. stocks since 2023 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is currently driven by two main themes: "technology growth" and "global inflation trading," highlighting a structural and logical selection of funds between future-oriented investments in computing power and current bets on scarce resources and price increases [1][2]. Technology Growth Main Line: From AI Phones to 6G - The consumer electronics sector, particularly AI phone stocks, has seen significant gains, with companies like Tianyin Holdings and Furong Technology hitting their daily price limits due to the upcoming AI phone launch in collaboration with ByteDance and ZTE [1][2]. - The commercial aerospace sector is benefiting from policy support, with the establishment of a Commercial Space Administration, positively impacting the entire industry chain from rocket manufacturing to satellite development [2]. - The domestic computing power and semiconductor sectors are also performing well, driven by a focus on "technological self-reliance," with high-end chips and data center support systems gaining attention amid external restrictions and internal policy support [2][3]. - The commonality in technology growth is clear: defined industry trends, concentrated policy support, and measurable long-term potential, although short-term surges often depend on event catalysts and emotional resonance [3]. Global Inflation Trading Main Line: Non-Ferrous and Precious Metals - The non-ferrous metals sector has seen the largest gains, driven by soaring international commodity prices, with spot silver and copper reaching historical highs due to supply crises and interest rate cut expectations [3]. - Precious metals like gold and silver are also performing strongly, with their safe-haven and anti-inflation properties being revalued amid global inflation and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - This type of market behavior is characterized by strong explosive power and steep short-term slopes, but its sustainability is often less than that driven by industry trends [3]. Institutional Views: Slow Bullish Base, Expectation for Year-End and Spring Rally - Multiple brokerages maintain a positive outlook for the market from year-end to early next year, with consensus and divergence present [4]. - Galaxy Securities predicts that the A-share market will remain upward in December, suggesting attention to upcoming economic meetings and industry conferences for thematic opportunities [4]. - Industrial opportunities are expected to emerge from the upcoming central economic work conference and the Federal Reserve's meetings, with technology growth seen as a key driver for market movements [4][5]. - The consensus among institutions acknowledges the bottom lifting and structural opportunities, while remaining cautious about the market's height and rhythm [5]. Conclusion: Anchoring on Industry Trends and Depth of Capital Consensus - In a slow bullish environment, while indices may not rise sharply every day, clear structural opportunities will repeatedly emerge [6]. - The key is to identify which upward trends have substantive logic and which are merely riding the wave, with the ultimate market height determined by the thickness of industry trends and the depth of capital consensus [6].

Group 1 - The Shanghai Composite Index successfully broke through the 4000-point mark, with the computing power sector continuing its strong performance [1] - The Huatai-PineBridge Cloud Computing ETF (159273) rose over 1%, with a trading volume exceeding 70 million yuan, and its latest scale reached 1.7 billion yuan as of October 27, leading its peers [1] - Qualcomm announced the launch of two AI chips for data centers, AI200 and AI250, expected to be commercially available in 2026 and 2027, respectively, causing its stock price to surge over 20% [1] Group 2 - Kingsoft Office reported a third-quarter revenue of 1.521 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 25.33%, and a net profit of 431 million yuan, up 35.42% [2] - The three main business segments of Kingsoft Office all experienced growth, with WPS 365 revenue increasing by 71.61% [2] - As of 13:38, the component stocks of the Huatai-PineBridge Cloud Computing ETF showed mixed performance, with Kingsoft Office rising over 6% due to positive earnings [2] Group 3 - The demand for optical modules is expected to increase, with projections for 2025-2027 indicating a demand of 50 million, 75 million, and 100 million units, respectively [4] - The demand for 1.6T optical modules has been revised upwards, with total industry demand expected to rise from 1 million to 2 million units due to the rapid growth in AI training and inference network bandwidth [4] Group 4 - The domestic AI industry is rapidly developing, with cloud service providers like Alibaba Cloud gaining competitive advantages over traditional internet cycles [6] - The focus is on the domestic chip industry, which is expected to benefit significantly from supply chain security considerations, with recommendations to pay attention to the entire domestic chip supply chain [6] - The Huatai-PineBridge Cloud Computing ETF (159273) covers a wide range of sectors, including hardware, cloud computing services, IT services, and application software, with a hardware-software ratio of 6:4 [6]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the electronic industry [1] Core Insights - The investment logic for domestic computing power is evolving from the supply side to the demand side, with AI application demand becoming a new engine for "domestic computing power" [1] - The release of multi-modal large models marks a significant breakthrough, driving the growth of AI applications and consequently the demand for domestic computing power [5] - Key companies such as DeepSeek, Zhiyuan, and Alibaba are demonstrating advancements in AI model compatibility and performance, showcasing the collaborative capabilities of domestic computing power [1][5] Summary by Sections Industry Trends - The electronic industry is experiencing a growth trajectory, with significant advancements in AI capabilities and multi-modal applications [5] - The competition is shifting from single-language intelligence to multi-modal generation and understanding capabilities, with domestic companies rapidly catching up to international standards [5] Investment Recommendations - Recommended companies for cloud computing power include Cambrian, Haiguang Information, Chipone, Shengke Communication, and Zhaoyi Innovation, with a focus on companies like Aojie Technology and Yutai Micro [2] - For edge computing power, recommended companies include Amlogic, Rockchip, and Hengxuan Technology, with attention to companies like Lexin Technology [2] Key Company Valuations - Cambrian (688256) has a market cap of 554.31 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 325.55 for 2025E [7] - Haiguang Information (688041) has a market cap of 587.13 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 205.37 for 2025E [7] - Chipone (688521) has a market cap of 96.21 billion, with a projected PE ratio of -963.16 for 2025E [7] - Zhaoyi Innovation (603986) has a market cap of 142.33 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 86.01 for 2025E [7] - Amlogic (688099) has a market cap of 46.82 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 44.12 for 2025E [7] - Rockchip (603893) has a market cap of 94.89 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 89.15 for 2025E [7] - Hengxuan Technology (688608) has a market cap of 50.09 billion, with a projected PE ratio of 57.88 for 2025E [7]

Core Insights - The release of DeepSeek-V3.1 enhances the capabilities of AI models, particularly in mixed reasoning architecture, which supports both thinking and non-thinking modes, leading to improved efficiency and performance [1][3] - The semiconductor industry is expected to see significant growth in computing power demand, driven by advancements in AI applications and multi-modal large models [4] Group 1: Market Overview - The Shenwan Electronics Industry Index rose by 8.95% during the week of August 18-22, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 4.77%, ranking second among 31 industries [2] Group 2: DeepSeek-V3.1 Release - DeepSeek-V3.1 introduces a mixed reasoning architecture that allows for faster output and improved task performance, maintaining average results comparable to R1-0528 while reducing output token count by 20%-50% [1][3] - The model's enhanced Agent capabilities are achieved through Post-Training optimization, significantly improving performance in tool usage and agent tasks [3] Group 3: Industry Outlook - The demand for computing power in China is projected to grow over 40% by 2025, with a focus on advancing GPU chip technology and building computing facilities [4] - Domestic computing power is expected to gain market share and maintain a favorable outlook, particularly in the context of self-sufficiency in technology [4] Group 4: Investment Strategy - Companies to watch in the domestic AI industry chain include Cambrian-U, Haiguang Information, Chipone Technology, ZTE, and others in the semiconductor and storage sectors [4][5] - The report suggests monitoring storage module and end-side storage companies that may benefit from upstream production control and inventory digestion [5]

Group 1: Stock Performance - Huawei's supply chain stocks surged on August 26, with companies like Helitai, Cambridge Technology, and Kaipu Cloud experiencing significant gains, including Helitai's three consecutive trading limits and Cambridge Technology's two consecutive trading limits [1] - Helitai reported a price of 3.72 with a rise of 10.06%, while Cambridge Technology reached 80.17 with a 10.00% increase [1] - Kaipu Cloud's stock price increased by 20.00% to 94.75, reflecting its partnership with Huawei [1] Group 2: Company Announcements - Huawei's supply chain company Huafeng Technology announced a record net profit of 151 million yuan for the first half of the year [1] - Huawei is set to launch a new AI SSD product on August 27, aimed at addressing challenges in AI training and inference [2] - The Huawei Connect 2025 event will take place from September 18-20, 2025, focusing on the theme of "Elevating Industry Intelligence" [2] Group 3: Technological Developments - The new AI SSD from Huawei is designed to overcome the "memory wall" issue in AI training, offering large capacity and improved data throughput efficiency [3] - AI SSDs are specifically optimized for AI workloads, featuring deep customizations in performance architecture and firmware algorithms [3] - Huawei's advancements in computing, storage, and communication may enhance the efficiency of computing resource allocation, potentially accelerating the penetration of domestic computing solutions [3]

Group 1 - DeepSeek released DeepSeek-V3.1, utilizing UE8M0 FP8 Scale parameter precision, designed for the upcoming domestic chip [1][3] - Multiple stocks in the computing sector surged, with notable increases such as 6.29% for SMIC and 17.19% for Haiguang Information [1] - Cambrian Technology, a major domestic AI chip company, reported significant revenue growth, achieving 11.11 billion yuan in Q1 2024, up from 0.26 billion yuan year-on-year [3] Group 2 - Several AI chip manufacturers, including Moer Technology and Suiyuan Technology, support FP8 precision computing, enhancing performance by 20%-30% in large model training [4] - The domestic computing power industry is seeing increased utilization of domestic chips, with companies like iFlytek using fully domestic computing power for large model training [4][5] - Recent reports from securities firms indicate a stable growth in the semiconductor supply chain, with rising wafer foundry capacity and a positive outlook for the semiconductor market [5]

Group 1 - The Chinese computing power industry is expected to see significant developments and events in 2025, including various conferences and expos focused on data and digital economy [1][2][5] - Major companies like Alibaba, Huawei, and Tencent are scheduled to release their financial reports and host developer conferences in 2025, indicating a busy year for the tech sector [2][3] - The 2025 China International Big Data Industry Expo and the World Internet Conference are among the key events that will showcase advancements in computing power and digital technologies [1][5] Group 2 - The timeline for major events includes the China International Industrial Expo and the Huawei Developer Conference, which are expected to attract significant attention from industry stakeholders [1][2] - The anticipated financial reports from leading companies will provide insights into their performance and strategies in the evolving digital landscape [2][3] - The focus on computing power and digital economy at these events highlights the growing importance of technology in driving economic growth in China [1][5]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent rotation in the investment focus towards domestic computing power, indicating a shift in investor sentiment and market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1 - Investors previously expressed concerns about the lack of movement in the semiconductor sector and AI applications in software and media [1]. - The current market behavior reflects an extreme rotation, suggesting rapid changes in investment strategies and sector focus [2].