晨 会 纪 要 [2025]第 152 号 整理记录：张智珑 研究所今日晨会要点如下: 一、宏观策略 宏观信息与点评（何超） 1、7 月，非银存款新增 2.14 万亿元，为 2015 年有记录以来同期最高水平， 引发市场广泛关注。有券商推测，非银新增存款可能更多流向了股票市场，此外 股票交易量大增，也使得证券公司保证金存款增长。还有券商表示，当前投资者 并没有大量直接跑步入市，而是间接通过固收+基金等渠道进入权益市场。 第一，原本会谈预计持续 6-7 个小时，而实际上只进行了 2.5 小时就结束。 意味着在关键问题上双方分歧过大以至于没有进一步深入讨论的必要。第二，原 本计划的"一对一"密谈变成了"三对三"会谈，私密性下降，导致普特两人无 法进行"私密且重要"的沟通。第三，特朗普明确表示"未达成停火协议"，仅 称在"多数问题上达成一致"，遗留问题"极少但关键"，但此次会谈最重要的 议题就是俄乌战争，而在这一问题上没有进展意味着会谈不算成功。预计未来不 久会召集俄，乌，美，欧在内的多方会谈。 二、行业公司 1.1 创新药行业（张德燕） 市场分析与展望 上周全球生物科技板块涨幅显著，根据 Wind 数据显示，恒生 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the computer industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [1]. Core Insights - The release of GPT-5 by OpenAI marks a significant advancement in AI capabilities, particularly in programming and creative writing, which is expected to drive deeper AI applications and increase demand for computing power [2][26]. - The computer sector has shown strong performance, with a cumulative increase of 3.17% over the past two weeks, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 0.77 percentage points, and a year-to-date increase of 16.67%, surpassing the CSI 300 index by 10.61 percentage points [9][19]. - The current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio for the SW computer sector stands at 56.04, placing it in the 91.48% percentile for the past five years and 82.35% for the past ten years, indicating a relatively high valuation [19]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance Review - The SW computer sector has increased by 3.17% in the last two weeks, ranking 13th among 31 primary industries [9]. - Year-to-date, the sector has outperformed the CSI 300 index by 10.61 percentage points [9]. 2. Valuation Situation - As of August 14, 2025, the SW computer sector's PE TTM is 56.04, indicating a high valuation compared to historical data [19]. 3. Industry News - OpenAI launched GPT-5, enhancing capabilities in coding and creative writing, which is expected to facilitate deeper AI applications [20]. - Google DeepMind introduced Genie 3, a model capable of generating interactive 3D environments [20]. - Huawei announced the full open-source of its CANN platform, aiming to accelerate innovation in AI applications [20]. 4. Company Announcements - Hikvision reported a revenue of 41.818 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 1.48% [23]. - Inspur Information launched a super node AI server capable of running trillion-parameter models, indicating advancements in AI infrastructure [20]. 5. Weekly Perspective - The report emphasizes the potential of GPT-5 to drive AI applications from shallow interactions to deep autonomous decision-making, suggesting a sustained demand for computing power [26]. 6. Recommended Stocks - The report suggests focusing on companies like GuoDianYunTong, ShenZhouData, and Inspur Information, which are well-positioned to benefit from the growing demand for AI and computing power [27].

Group 1 - Huawei plans to officially open source UCM by September 2025, initially launching in the Magic Engine community and gradually contributing to mainstream inference engine communities and sharing with all Share Everything storage vendors and ecosystem partners [2] - Samsung is developing a 415mm x 510mm panel-level advanced packaging System on Panel (SoP) to compete for large-scale chip system integration orders against Intel and TSMC, utilizing a technology that eliminates PCB substrates and silicon interlayers [3] - Ford is recalling over 103,000 F-150 vehicles in the U.S. due to potential fatigue-related failures of rear axle hub bolts, highlighting the company's proactive responsibility in addressing safety concerns [4] Group 2 - JD Group CEO Xu Ran stated that the current subsidy war lacks innovation and creates a negative impact on the market, emphasizing that the company will not participate in harmful internal competition [5][6] - Micron announced a global halt on the development of future mobile NAND products due to ongoing weak financial performance in the mobile NAND market, while continuing to support other NAND solutions [6] - The film "Adventure" has surpassed 70 million yuan in total box office revenue within five days of its release [7] Group 3 - McDonald's clarified its recruitment of retired employees, stating that it adheres to legal regulations and provides compliant compensation and commercial insurance [8] - Douyin e-commerce has taken strict measures against infringement and counterfeiting, processing over 24,000 accounts for violations related to unauthorized use of creators' images and AI-generated content [9] - Galaxy Entertainment reported a 19% year-on-year increase in shareholder profit to 5.2 billion HKD for the first half of 2025, with net revenue rising 8% to 23.2 billion HKD [10] Group 4 - The all-new Tank 500 has officially started pre-sales with a starting price of 360,000 yuan, featuring advanced intelligent driving systems and achieving 7,289 orders within two hours of pre-sale [11] - Xiaomi's car sales personnel clarified that the requirement to settle over 200,000 yuan in remaining payments applies only to specific customers with special circumstances, aiming to improve delivery efficiency [12] - Former Honor CEO Zhao Ming denied rumors of joining Zhijie Auto, emphasizing his focus on personal recovery and planning [13][14]

Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 24,969, up 0.25% with a year-to-date increase of 24.48% [1] - The Hang Seng Tech Index decreased by 0.38% to 5,439, with a year-to-date increase of 21.73% [1] - The A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index rise by 0.5% to 3,665, marking a new high in over three and a half years [5] Currency and Commodity Trends - The Renminbi Index stood at 96.040, with a 1-month increase of 0.78% but a 6-month decrease of 4.49% [2] - Brent crude oil prices fell by 3.74% over the past month, currently priced at $66.640 per barrel [2] - Gold prices increased by 0.19% over the past month, currently at $3,351.34 per ounce, with a 6-month increase of 15.35% [2] Company Developments - Kuaishou is reportedly expanding into self-operated e-commerce, adopting a factory direct shipping model, which has led to a significant drop in its stock price by over 9% [9][13] - China Unicom reported a net increase of 9.68 million 5G users in the second quarter, bringing the total to nearly 214 million [12] - Huawei announced the launch of its AI inference technology UCM, which will be open-sourced next month [10] Economic Indicators - The U.S. inflation rate remained stable at 2.7% in July, with core inflation accelerating to 3.1%, higher than expected [15] - The U.S. retail sales for July increased by 0.6% month-on-month, indicating a steady consumer spending trend [26] IPO and Market Activity - The recent IPO of Zhonghui Biotechnology saw a closing price of HKD 43.70, reflecting a 157.98% increase on its first day of trading [24] - The Hong Kong stock market recorded a total turnover of HKD 215.4 billion, with significant trading activity in technology and financial sectors [5][17]

大家好，我是天弘基金张戈，关注通信设备指数投资机会伙伴，欢迎一起交流讨论~ 在8月13日的盘中，CPO板块呈现出显著的上涨态势，与此同时，通信设备相关领域也在近期持续上 扬，引发了市场的广泛关注。 简而言之，当下市场对于大AI商业模式成功落地的预期正逐步攀升。一旦此逻辑成立，意味着AI产业 链商业化落地的场景已全面打通，其市场体量堪称巨大，甚至可视为一场新的科技革命。市场对此也有 所反馈，除CPO、通信设备领域，PCB、液冷以及服务器等AI产业链相关板块也相继崛起，并且这种轮 动较为良性，反映出市场对AI 产业链的广泛关注与积极参与。 不过，短期内通信设备指数的涨幅着实超出了部分人的预期。尽管如此，从趋势上判断，上涨的态势有 望依然稳固。后续需要重点关注几个关键因素：其一，AI 应用的热度能否持续，以及应用场景是否会 出现新的突破，若能得以延续，那么行情持续向好的希望很大。例如，周末发布的GPT - 5虽被部分人 认为低于预期，但深入研究后会发现，其在编程能力等实用性方面进一步提升，且对训练需求进行了优 化，这类注重实用性的技术迭代，反而增强了大AI落地以及商业模式兑现的可能性，或许这正是近期 市场炒作的底层 ...

要闻提示 NEWS REMIND 1. 史上变化最大！苹果手机 iPhone 17 Pro长得像充电宝引热议 2.车企承诺60天支付账期兑现情况曝光！官方：有三家车企实现 3.华为发布AI推理创新技术UCM，计划于9月开源 4.长城汽车魏建军谈理想 i8 对撞乘龙卡车：我们不敢去撞卡车 5.还没倒闭！罗马仕重启招聘：月薪最高3万，此前仅剩20多人在岗 6.追觅被曝进军电视赛道：成立"智显"事业群，相关新品预计 9 月初首发亮相 7.GitHub CEO辞职，微软全面接管！全球最大代码托管平台结束独立运营 8.美光回应中国区业务调整：公司将在全球范围内停止未来移动 NAND 产品的开发 今日头条 HEADLINE NEWS 史上变化最大！苹果手机 iPhone 17 Pro长得像充电宝引热议 8月12日消息，还有1个月左右时间，苹果新一代旗舰手机iPhone 17系列就将正式登场，新机外观已经确 定，将是史上变化最大的苹果手机。 昨日，词条#iPhone17Pro长得像充电宝#冲上微博热搜榜，引发网友热议。据了解，iPhone 17 Pro系列 采用横向大矩阵Deco设计，左侧为三摄，右侧集成闪光灯与LiDAR ...

来源：国金证券第5小时 申购+缴款：能之光 920056.BJ * 1、中美双方发布《中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明》。美方承诺继续调整对中国商品（包括香港特别行政区和澳门特别行政区商品）加征关税的措 施，自8月12日起继续暂停实施24%的对等关税90天。中方自8月12日起继续暂停实施24%对美加征关税以及有关非关税反制措施90天。在不可靠实体清单 方面，中方继续暂停4月4日公告相关措施90天，停止4月9日公告相关措施。 2、三部门联合印发《个人消费贷款财政贴息政策实施方案》，明确2025年9月1日至2026年8月31日期间，符合条件的个人消费贷款可享受财政贴息。贴息 范围包括单笔5万元以下消费，以及单笔5万元及以上的家用汽车、养老生育等重点领域消费。每人在同一家机构最高可享3000元贴息。 3、财政部等九部门印发《服务业经营主体贷款贴息政策实施方案》，明确对符合条件的餐饮住宿、健康、养老、托育、家政、文化娱乐、旅游、体育8类 消费领域服务业经营主体贷款给予财政贴息。单户享受贴息的贷款规模最高可达100万元。 4、美国7月CPI同比持平于2.7%，低于预期的2.8%，环比则上涨0.2%符合市场预期。7月核心C ...

华见早安之声 市场概述 全球贸易乐观情绪提振投资者信心，同时美国7月CPI数据巩固了市场对美联储9月降息的预期。资金全面涌入风险资产，纳指与标普500均涨超1%，齐创历 史新高。罗素小盘股指数飙升3%。Meta涨超3%，收创历史新高。 绩后"稳定币第一股"Circle一度涨超15%，但随后回落，仅收涨超1%，盘后发行股票消息令股价跌超6%；另一美国IPO妖股Coreweave绩后跌超10%。 通胀数据后美债收益率均大跌，随后普遍回升，但2年期仍收跌近3个基点。美元跌0.47%。以太坊大涨近9%，时隔近四年重回4500美元上方。黄金宽幅震 荡于3350美元附近。 原油收跌，美油较日高下挫近2%。内盘夜市菜油收涨3.79%，菜粕涨3.57%。 美国7月关税收入创历史新高，但特朗普政府预算赤字仍扩大。 亚洲时段，创业板涨超1%，芯片股午后爆发、寒武纪涨停创新高，双焦期货大涨，恒指涨0.25%，复星国际涨超13%。 要闻 三部门：对于单笔5万元以上的消费，以5万元消费额度为上限进行贴息。财政部等九部门：服务业经营主体贷款可享1%贴息，贴息贷款规模最 高达100万元。 中美斯德哥尔摩经贸会谈联合声明：自2025年8月1 ...

摘要 1、今天，A股三大指数再度收涨，创业板指涨超1%，半导体、AI芯片等科技板块领涨。 2、DeepSeek突传重磅，寒武纪直线涨停，股价创历史新高。盘后算力又有利好，后市主线定了？哪些基金值得关注？ 3、 上天天基金APP搜索【777】注册即可 领500元券包，优选基金10元起投！限量发放！先到先得！ 真话白话说财经，理财不说违心话 --这是第1405 篇白话财经- - 今天，A股三大指数继续上涨，沪指七连阳，距离去年10月高点3674点仅有一步之遥。 （图片来源：东方财富APP，统计截至2025/8/12，不作投资推荐） 两市成交额接近1.9万亿，盘面上，半导体、券商、消费电子等板块领涨，新能源、光伏等板块回调。 分析人士指出， 随着 价涨量增的量价关系，市场赚钱效应的恢复，场外资金的流入，可以预计的是，短线大盘还将继续冲高，不但突破3674点势在 必行，就连突破2021年高点3731点也是大势所趋，突破只是早晚的问题。 寒武纪涨停，DeepSeek突传重磅 此前，DeepSeek-R2早期计划指向2025年5月发布，但因技术进度和市场竞争因素被推迟。上一轮因为DeepSeek大涨的 每日互动 ，今天涨 ...

每经编辑｜金冥羽 8月12日，市场全天震荡走高，沪指录得7连阳，三大指数均再创年内新高。A股全天成交额1.91万亿元，较上个交易日放量554.26亿元。盘面上，市场热 点较为杂乱，个股跌多涨少，全市场超3100只个股下跌。截至收盘，沪指涨0.5%，深成指涨0.53%，创业板指涨1.24%。 另据人民财讯，8月12日，华为正式发布AI推理创新技术UCM(推理记忆数据管理器)。据了解，作为一款以KV Cache为中心的推理加速套件，UCM融合了 多类型缓存加速算法工具，分级管理推理过程中产生的KV Cache记忆数据，可扩大推理上下文窗口，实现高吞吐、低时延的推理体验，降低每Token推理 成本。该技术已率先在中国银联"客户之声""营销策划""办公助手"三大业务场景中，开展智慧金融AI推理加速应用试点，并已取得成果。 从板块来看，芯片股午后爆发，寒武纪涨停创历史新高。AI硬件股震荡走强，胜宏科技等多股再创历史新高。新疆本地股维持强势，新疆交建等多股3连 板。下跌方面，军工股展开调整，捷强装备等跌超5%。板块方面，半导体、港口、CPO、新疆等板块涨幅居前，PEEK材料、稀土永磁、军工、锂矿等板 块跌幅居前。 | | ...