Downturn Resilience
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Can Twist Bioscience Drop More?
Forbes· 2025-11-17 14:25
Core Insights - Twist Bioscience (TWST) stock has experienced a significant decline of 10.1% in one day, raising concerns about potential deeper issues beyond temporary weakness [2] - The company is valued at $1.6 billion with a revenue of $362 million, and its stock is currently trading at $26.87 [2] - Revenue growth over the past year is reported at 22.7%, but the operating margin stands at -39.3% [2] - The stock is trading at a P/E multiple of -18.9 and a P/EBIT multiple of -9.5, indicating moderate operational performance and valuation, leading to it being considered fairly priced [3] Financial Position - The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.05 and a cash-to-assets ratio of 0.39, suggesting a strong liquidity position [2] - TWST stock has historically underperformed compared to the S&P 500 during economic downturns, with a notable decline of 94.5% from its peak of $207.97 on January 20, 2021, to $11.49 on May 2, 2023 [7] - The stock has not yet returned to its pre-crisis high, with the highest price since then being $58.88 on July 23, 2024 [7] Market Performance - The stock dropped 43.9% from a high of $35.15 on March 6, 2020, to $19.71 on March 18, 2020, compared to a 33.9% decline for the S&P 500 [7] - In December 2018, TWST stock declined by 47.6% from a peak of $31.08 to $16.30, while the S&P 500 experienced a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8% [8] - Despite these declines, the stock has shown the ability to fully rebound to its pre-crisis peaks in previous instances [8]
Salesforce Stock: Buy Or Wait?
Forbes· 2025-11-07 14:30
Core Insights - Salesforce (CRM) shares have decreased by 5.3% in one day, influenced by a broader decline in technology indices and insider share sales [1] - The stock is currently trading at $239.27, with a market capitalization of $229 billion and revenue of $40 billion [7] - Historical trends suggest that buying during dips can be beneficial, as the stock has returned a median of 60.5% within a year after significant dips since 2010 [7] Company Overview - Salesforce provides customer relationship management technology and a platform that supports connected experiences across various industries, including financial services, healthcare, and manufacturing [5] - The company has shown revenue growth of 8.3% over the last 12 months, with an operating margin of 21.2% [7] Financial Metrics - Salesforce has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.05 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.16, indicating strong liquidity [7] - The stock is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 34.3 and a P/EBIT multiple of 27.3 [7] Historical Performance - CRM stock experienced a decline of 58.6% from a high of $309.96 on November 8, 2021, to $128.27 on December 16, 2022, while the S&P 500 had a peak-to-trough drop of 25.4% during the same period [8] - The stock fully rebounded to its pre-crisis peak by March 1, 2024, and surged to a peak of $367.87 on December 4, 2024 [8] - In previous downturns, CRM stock has shown resilience, recovering fully from declines of 35.7% during the Covid pandemic and 24.8% during the 2018 correction [10]
Seagate Stock Declined 13% In A Week. Have You Assessed The Risk?
Forbes· 2025-10-09 14:30
Core Insights - Seagate Technology (STX) stock has decreased by 12.6% over the past 5 trading days, raising concerns about its valuation and potential investment decisions [1][3] - The company plans to lay off 3,000 employees as part of a restructuring plan aimed at saving $110 million annually [3] - STX has shown a tendency to underperform compared to the S&P 500 during economic downturns, indicating potential risks for investors [3][8] Company Performance - Seagate Technology is valued at $48 billion with current revenue of $9.1 billion, trading at $224.35 [7] - The company has experienced a revenue growth of 38.9% over the last 12 months and maintains an operating margin of 21.1% [7] - STX has a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.1 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.11, indicating strong liquidity [7] Valuation Metrics - The stock is currently trading at a P/E multiple of 32.8 and a P/EBIT multiple of 26.3, suggesting it may be overvalued [7] - Historically, STX has provided median returns of 65.7% within a year following significant dips since 2010 [7] Historical Performance During Crises - STX stock dropped 58.2% from a peak of $116.02 on January 4, 2022, to $48.49 on November 3, 2022, while the S&P 500 saw a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% [8] - The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by May 27, 2025, and reached a maximum of $256.84 on October 1, 2025, currently valued at $224.35 [8] - In previous crises, STX stock has shown significant declines, such as a 35.6% drop during the 2020 Covid pandemic and an 89.1% drop during the 2008 financial crisis, but it has historically recovered to pre-crisis levels [10]
AMD Stock Increased 30% Over A Week. Have You Thoroughly Assessed The Risk?
Forbes· 2025-10-08 14:35
Core Insights - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) stock has increased by 30.7% over the past 5 trading days, raising concerns about its valuation and potential risks of a decline [2] - The company has a market capitalization of $343 billion and reported $30 billion in revenue, with a revenue growth of 27.2% over the last 12 months [4] - AMD's stock has historically underperformed compared to the S&P 500 during economic downturns, indicating potential vulnerability [2][5] Financial Performance - AMD's operating margin is currently at 8.3%, and the stock is trading at a P/E multiple of 121.1 and a P/EBIT multiple of 138.6 [4] - The stock experienced a significant drop of 65.4% from a high of $161.91 on November 29, 2021, to $55.94 on October 14, 2022, while the S&P 500 saw a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% during the same period [5] - Despite past declines, AMD has shown resilience, fully regaining its pre-crisis peak by January 18, 2024, and reaching a high of $211.51 on October 7, 2025 [5] Historical Context - During the COVID-19 pandemic, AMD stock fell 34.3% from a high of $58.90 on February 19, 2020, to $38.71 on March 16, 2020, compared to a 33.9% decline for the S&P 500, but it recovered to its pre-crisis peak by July 22, 2020 [7] - In 2018, AMD stock decreased by 49.1% from a high of $32.72 on September 14, 2018, to $16.65 on December 24, 2018, while the S&P 500 had a peak-to-trough decline of 19.8%, with AMD recovering its peak by June 10, 2019 [7] - The stock experienced a dramatic decline of 91.2% from a high of $20.35 on January 1, 2007, to $1.80 on November 25, 2008, compared to a 56.8% decline for the S&P 500, but it fully recovered by August 21, 2018 [7]
Buy Or Fear Carnival Stock?
Forbes· 2025-09-30 13:10
Core Insights - Carnival's stock (NYSE: CCL) fell 4% on Monday and has decreased by 9.5% over the past 21 trading days despite better-than-expected quarterly results, primarily due to weaker forecasts for net yield, a key metric for revenue from passengers [1] Financial Performance - Carnival is valued at $39 billion with $26 billion in revenue, currently trading at $29.40 [7] - The company has experienced a revenue growth of 7.1% over the last 12 months and maintains an operating margin of 16.4% [7] - Carnival's stock has historically returned a median of 9.1% within a year following sharp declines since 2010 [7] Stock Performance and Market Comparison - The stock has seen significant declines in the past, including a drop of 79.6% from a peak of $31.31 on June 2, 2021, to $6.38 on October 10, 2022, compared to a peak-to-trough drop of 25.4% for the S&P 500 [8] - The stock fully rebounded to its pre-Crisis peak by August 26, 2025, and has since risen to a peak of $32.49 on August 28, 2025, currently trading at $29.40 [8] - Historical performance shows that Carnival's stock has consistently underperformed compared to the S&P 500 during various economic downturns, both in terms of the extent of decline and recovery speed [4] Debt and Liquidity - Carnival displays a Debt to Equity ratio of 0.72 and a Cash to Assets ratio of 0.03, indicating its financial leverage and liquidity position [7]
Constellation Brands: How Low Can STZ Stock Go?
Forbes· 2025-09-11 13:45
Core Insights - Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) has experienced a 15.3% decline in shares over the last 21 trading days due to a lowered fiscal 2026 sales and earnings outlook, primarily driven by decreased demand for its beers among the Hispanic population in the U.S. [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Constellation Brands is a $25 billion company generating $10 billion in revenue, with shares currently priced at $142.90 [6] - The company reported a last 12-month revenue growth of -0.5% and an operating margin of 31.7% [6] - The debt-to-equity ratio stands at 0.46, indicating a relatively low level of debt, while the cash-to-assets ratio is extremely low [6] Group 2: Historical Stock Performance - During the 2022 inflation shock, STZ's stock fell 20.1% from a high of $261.05 on December 2, 2022, to $208.68 on January 5, 2023, compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [7] - The stock fully regained its pre-crisis peak by July 19, 2023, and reached a high of $272.80 on July 31, 2023, before currently trading at $142.90 [7] - In the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic, STZ fell 49.3% from a high of $208.34 on February 20, 2020, to $105.64 on March 23, 2020, while the S&P 500 experienced a 33.9% decline [9] - The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by December 3, 2020 [9]
FCX Stock Slides 6% On Copper Mega-Merger. What Next?
Forbes· 2025-09-10 12:16
Group 1: Market Dynamics - Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) stock experienced a decline of 5.9% following Anglo American's acquisition of Teck Resources for $53 billion, marking a significant merger in the copper sector [1] - The merger creates one of the largest copper mining companies globally, reflecting increasing competition in the copper market driven by rising demand from electric vehicles, renewable energy, and artificial intelligence [1] Group 2: Company Performance - FCX is currently valued at $63 billion with $26 billion in revenue, trading at $43.89, showing a revenue growth of 4.6% over the last 12 months and an operating margin of 26.8% [5] - The company has a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.15 and a cash-to-assets ratio of 0.08, indicating a relatively strong liquidity position [5] Group 3: Historical Stock Performance - FCX stock has shown significant volatility, falling 51.7% from a high of $51.93 on March 25, 2022, to $25.09 on July 14, 2022, compared to a 25.4% decline in the S&P 500 during the same period [6] - The stock fully recovered to its pre-crisis peak by April 29, 2024, and reached a high of $54.86 on May 20, 2024, currently trading at $43.89 [6] - Historical data shows that FCX stock has experienced substantial declines during past crises, including a drop of 60.8% during the COVID-19 pandemic and 86.7% during the 2008 financial crisis, with varying recovery timelines [8]
Should You Buy Abbott Stock At $135?
Forbes· 2025-07-09 10:35
Core Viewpoint - Abbott Laboratories has significantly outperformed the S&P 500 index this year, with an 18% increase in stock price compared to the S&P 500's 6% rise, driven by solid quarterly results and positive future forecasts [2] Growth - Abbott Laboratories' revenues have shown slight growth over recent years, with a 4.6% increase from $40 billion to $42 billion in the last 12 months, while the S&P 500 experienced a growth of 5.5% [6] - Quarterly revenues grew by 7.2% to $11 billion in the most recent quarter from $10 billion a year ago, compared to a 4.8% improvement for the S&P 500 [6] Profitability - Abbott Laboratories' operating income over the last four quarters reached $6.8 billion, reflecting a moderate operating margin of 16.3% [5] - The company's net income stood at $13 billion, indicating a high net income margin of 31.9%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [12] Financial Stability - Abbott Laboratories has a robust balance sheet, with total debt of $15 billion and a market capitalization of $233 billion, resulting in a low debt-to-equity ratio of 6.3% compared to 19.4% for the S&P 500 [12] - The company's operating cash flow was $8.6 billion, yielding a cash flow margin of 20.4%, higher than the S&P 500's 14.9% [12] Downturn Resilience - Abbott Laboratories has demonstrated more resilience than the S&P 500 during recent downturns, with a peak-to-trough decline of 36.2% from a peak of $141.46 on December 27, 2021, compared to a 25.4% decline for the S&P 500 [13] - The stock has shown strong recovery patterns in past crises, fully recovering to pre-crisis peaks in several instances [13] Valuation - Abbott Laboratories' price-to-sales (P/S) ratio is 5.6, compared to 3.1 for the S&P 500, and its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is 17.7 against the benchmark's 26.9 [6] - The current valuation appears slightly high compared to the broader market but aligns with the stock's historical average [3][9]
Why AAL Stock Is A Risky Bet
Forbes· 2025-06-12 15:05
Core Viewpoint - American Airlines faces significant challenges despite its low valuation, with critical issues in operational performance, financial health, and historical resilience overshadowing its apparent attractiveness as an investment [2][11]. Valuation - American Airlines' stock appears inexpensive with a price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 0.1, price-to-free cash flow (P/FCF) ratio of 1.8, and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 11.3, all significantly lower than the S&P 500 averages [3]. Revenue Growth - The company has experienced revenue growth averaging 18.0% over the past three years, but its recent quarterly revenue dropped by 0.2% to $13 billion, lagging behind the S&P 500's 4.8% growth [4]. Profitability - American Airlines' operating income was $2.9 billion with an operating margin of 5.4%, and a net income of $685 million, resulting in a net income margin of 1.3%, all significantly below S&P 500 benchmarks [5]. Financial Stability - The company's debt is $37 billion against a market capitalization of $7.3 billion, leading to a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 474.3%, which is much higher than the S&P 500's 19.9% [7]. Downturn Resilience - Historically, American Airlines has underperformed during economic downturns, with a 57.7% drop during the Inflation Shock of 2022 and a 70.3% decline during the Covid Pandemic, both significantly worse than the S&P 500 [8][9]. Overall Outlook - Despite some revenue growth, American Airlines is viewed as a high-risk investment due to poor profitability, fragile financial stability, and inadequate resilience to economic downturns, leading to an unfavorable evaluation of the stock [11].
SolarEdge Rally To Continue?
Forbes· 2025-06-12 09:01
Core Viewpoint - SolarEdge Technologies (NASDAQ: SEDG) shares surged nearly 12% following an analyst upgrade, with a year-to-date increase of 50%. The company reported Q1 2025 revenue of $219.5 million, a 7.4% year-over-year increase, while facing challenges in Europe but seeing improved prospects in the U.S. residential market due to expanded manufacturing capacity [2]. Financial Performance - SolarEdge Technologies has experienced an average annual revenue decrease of 13.2% over the last three years, contrasting with a 5.5% rise for the S&P 500. Revenues have diminished by 59.0% from $2.2 billion to $917 million in the last 12 months [5]. - The company's quarterly revenues increased by 7.4% to $219 million in the most recent quarter from $204 million a year ago, compared to a 4.8% rise for the S&P 500 [5]. Profitability Metrics - Over the last four quarters, SolarEdge Technologies reported an Operating Income of $-1.4 billion, resulting in an Operating Margin of -153.6%, significantly lower than the S&P 500's 13.2% [7]. - The Net Income for the last four quarters was $-1.7 billion, leading to a Net Income Margin of -190.7%, compared to 11.6% for the S&P 500 [7]. Financial Stability - As of the end of the most recent quarter, SolarEdge Technologies had a Debt of $758 million and a market capitalization of $1.2 billion, resulting in a Debt-to-Equity Ratio of 69.7%, higher than the S&P 500's 19.9% [8]. - The company holds $652 million in cash, constituting 25.8% of its total assets of $2.5 billion, which is stronger than the S&P 500's 13.8% [8]. Market Resilience - SolarEdge Technologies' stock has underperformed compared to the S&P 500 during recent downturns, indicating weak resilience in economic downturns [9]. - The stock lost 80.9% from its peak in November 2021 to November 2023, while the S&P 500 saw a peak-to-trough decline of 25.4% during the same period [10]. Overall Assessment - The overall assessment of SolarEdge Technologies indicates very weak growth, extremely weak profitability, strong financial stability, and very weak downturn resilience, leading to the conclusion that the stock is currently unappealing for investment [11][13].