(2)"反内卷"及供应约束驱动有色的商品属性。国内反内卷虽少正面涉及工业金属，但反内卷旨在优化 产业结构，激活生产要素，改善市场预期，当中下游各个环节的盈利改善，上游金属的涨价向下游的传 导将更为顺畅。但是，有色金属供应端的约束普遍存在：新发现铜矿数量有限，资本性开支不足，导致 全球能源革命对铜需求强劲的阶段，精炼铜供应增速受限；国内电解铝产能接近"天花板"，海外电解铝 投资进度受基建、配套能源制约，全球电解铝供应增速低于3%；钼、锑、铀、铼等小金属则面临投资 不足和资源衰竭的影响，不能满足日益高涨的高端产品需求。供应受限、需求韧性、下游可顺价将推动 有色的价格稳步上行。 智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，美国经济及就业数据表现不佳，叠加特朗普提名经济顾问委 员会主席斯蒂芬.米兰担美联储理事，强化市场对美联储于9月降息的预期，有色板块普涨。除却美联储 处于降息通道带来的货币宽松外，国内正在推行的"反内卷"优化生产要素，提升各环节盈利能力和改善 市场预期，有利于金属价格上涨向下游的传导。此外，工业金属板块的估值处于偏低的水平，亦有向上 修复的空间。EPS与PE双击的有色牛市正在启动。 中信建投主要观点如下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that poor economic and employment data in the U.S., combined with Trump's nomination of Stephen Moore as the chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers, has strengthened market expectations for a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September, leading to a broad rally in the non-ferrous metals sector [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - U.S. economic and employment data are performing poorly, which is influencing market sentiment [1] - The nomination of Stephen Moore to the Federal Reserve Board is contributing to expectations of a rate cut [1] Group 2: Market Impact - The anticipated monetary easing from the Federal Reserve is expected to benefit the non-ferrous metals sector [1] - The ongoing domestic initiative to optimize production factors and improve profitability across various segments is favorable for the transmission of rising metal prices to downstream industries [1] Group 3: Valuation and Market Trends - The valuation of the industrial metals sector is currently at a relatively low level, indicating potential for upward correction [1] - A bullish market for non-ferrous metals is beginning, characterized by a dual boost in EPS and PE [1]