在地缘扰动、大国博弈、能源革命等大背景下，有色牛市有望延续。1月9日， "家里有矿，2025年涨超有色"的矿业ETF（561330）大涨超2%，资金持续布 局，连续10日净流入超5.3亿元。 资源品供给不确定性上升，有色牛市有望延续 地缘冲突再起，增加资源品供给不确定性。美国1月3日凌晨对委内瑞拉发起大规模行动，令国际局势更为紧张。拉美地区是全球矿产资源核心供给地之一， 地缘局势紧张可能引发相关区域政策波动，进而导致供应不确定性增加。 此外，铜、铝、镍等基本金属均面临供应矛盾，支撑价格上升。近日加拿大矿产商Captone宣布其位于智利的曼托韦德铜金矿于1月2日开始罢工，莫桑比克 Mozal铝厂将于2026年3月转入无限期停产，印尼镍矿商提议削减镍矿配额，淡水河谷印尼因2026年产量计划获批延迟暂停采矿作业等。有色板块各品种或 持续面对供给端的扰动。 地缘扰动、大国博弈、能源革命等大背景下，有色牛市有望延续。一方面，国际经贸摩擦、地缘政治扰动使得全球供应链加速分化与重构，战略金属各品种 或轮番演绎；另一方面，能源革命或带来新需求和产业趋势性投资机会，金属作为能源转型核心载体，有望迎来需求重构与价值重估的黄金周期 ...

今日（1月6日）有色金属板块领涨两市，板块热门ETF——有色ETF华宝（159876）场内涨幅盘中上探3.03%，现涨2.45%，续创历史新高！ 展望后市，有色金属板块有望持续走牛成为机构普遍共识。中金公司指出，2026年，有色行业有望迎来货币、需求和供应共振向上的牛市；中泰证券看好有 色全面牛市行情；中信建投则认为有色牛市有望再进阶。 【有色风口已至，"超级周期"势不可挡】 不同的有色金属，景气度、节奏与驱动点不一致，分化在所难免，如果看好有色金属，一个比较轻松的思路是通过全覆盖来更好地把握整个板块的贝塔行 情。揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色ETF华宝（159876）及其联接基金（A类：017140，C类：017141）标的指数全面覆盖铜、铝、黄金、稀土、锂等行业， 相较投资单一金属行业，能够分散风险，适合作为投资组合的一部分进行配置。 风险提示：有色龙头ETF及其联接基金被动跟踪中证有色金属指数，该指数基日为2013.12.31，发布于2015.7.13，指数近5个完整年度的涨跌幅为：2020年， 35.84%；2021年，35.89%；2022年，-19.22%；2023年，-10.43%；2024年，2. ...

今日（1月6日）有色金属板块领涨两市，板块热门ETF——有色ETF华宝（159876）场内涨幅盘中上探 3.03%，现涨2.45%，续创历史新高！ 值得关注的是，截至发稿，有色ETF华宝（159876）获资金实时净申购3240万份，此前4日连续获资金 净流入，合计金额5648万元，反映资金看好"有色牛"后市表现，积极进场抢筹！数据显示，截至1月5 日，有色ETF华宝（159876）最新规模8.79亿元，再创历史新高！ | 序号 | 名称 | 涨跌幅 ▼ | 两日图 | 申万一级行业 | 申万二级行业 | 申万三级行业 | 总市值 | 成交额 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 华友桔业 | 7.44% | - | 有色金属 | 能源合属 | 12 | 1386亿 | 29.15亿 | | 2 | 洛阳铝业 | 5.68% | - | 有色金属 | 工业金属 | 据 | 4526亿 | 16.32亿 | | 3 | 真销结业 | 5.86% | --- | 有色金属 | 能源合属 | 格 | 149亿 | 3.43 Z ...

12月16日早盘，市场盘整，A股三大指数悉数飘绿，揽尽有色金属行业龙头的有色龙头ETF（159876）随市回调，场内价格现跌1.32%，值得关注的是，该 ETF近20日累计吸金2.03亿元，反映资金看好有色金属板块后市表现，积极进场布局！ 成份股方面，厦门钨业、洛阳钼业领涨超1%，江西铜业、永兴材料、雅化集团等个股飘红，另一方面，西部超导跌逾4%，楚江新材、华峰铝业、西部黄金 跌超4%，跌幅居前，拖累指数表现。 | 多日 1分 5分 15分 30分 60分 日 | 周 | 月 更多 | F9 盘前盘后 叠加 九转 画线 工具 ◎ ② | 09:42 价 0.898 涨跌 -0.012(-1.32%) 均价 0.903 成交量 902 IOPV 0.8973 | 2025/12/16 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 0.923 | | | | | | | | | 國 | 0.921 | 1.1696 | 洋目元 | 实时申购陵回信息 | | | | | K 线图 | | | | | | | | | 0.918 | 0.9396 ...

Core Viewpoint - The market is currently experiencing a consolidation phase, with the A-share indices showing a downward trend. However, there is significant capital inflow into the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating positive sentiment towards its future performance [1][8]. Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals ETF (159876) has seen a price drop of 1.32% in the market, but it has attracted 203 million yuan in capital over the past 20 days, reflecting investor confidence in the sector [1][8]. - Leading stocks such as Xiamen Tungsten, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Jiangxi Copper have shown positive performance, while companies like Western Superconducting and Chuangjiang New Material have experienced declines exceeding 4% [1][8]. Group 2: Sector Analysis - Analysts attribute the active investment in the non-ferrous metals sector to China's ambition to transition from a manufacturing power to a manufacturing stronghold, with non-ferrous companies emerging as successful players in this landscape [3][4]. - In gold, China holds an 11% share of global gold production, with leading companies like Zijin Mining and Shandong Gold forming a competitive industry structure [3][10]. - For copper, China's refined copper production is projected to reach 13.64 million tons in 2024, accounting for 50% of global output, with a CR5 capacity concentration of 58% [3][10]. - In aluminum, China dominates the global market with 4.4 million tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, representing 57% of global supply, and the top seven Chinese companies account for 37% of global production [3][10]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Industry experts believe that the non-ferrous metals sector is likely to continue its bullish trend, with institutions like Zhongtai Securities and CITIC Securities expressing optimism about the ongoing commodity investment enthusiasm [4][10]. - The non-ferrous metals ETF and its associated funds provide comprehensive coverage across various metals, allowing for risk diversification and making them suitable for investment portfolios [5][11].

Group 1: Liquidity and Performance of Rare Metal ETFs - The rare metal ETF had an intraday turnover of 6.52%, with a transaction volume of 144 million yuan [2] - Over the past week, the average daily transaction volume of the rare metal ETF reached 228 million yuan, ranking first among comparable funds [2] - The rare metal ETF's scale increased by 68.32 million yuan in the past week, achieving significant growth and ranking first among comparable funds [2] - The latest share count of the rare metal ETF reached 2.992 billion shares, a new high since its inception, also ranking first among comparable funds [2] - In the last five days, the rare metal ETF experienced continuous net inflows, with a maximum single-day net inflow of 116 million yuan, totaling 333 million yuan [2] - As of September 4, 2025, the net value of the rare metal ETF increased by 77.68% over the past year, ranking 433 out of 3004 in the index stock fund category, placing it in the top 14.41% [2] - The highest monthly return since inception for the rare metal ETF was 24.02%, with the longest consecutive monthly increase being four months and a maximum increase of 58.56% [2] - The average return during the rising months was 8.77%, and the annualized excess return over the benchmark for the past three months was 9.14% [2] Group 2: Market Trends and Company Performance - The rare metal sector is experiencing multiple favorable factors, with rising rare earth prices improving the profitability of related companies [3] - Shenghe Resources reported significant year-on-year growth in rare earth and rare metal production and sales for the first half of 2025, driven by changes in market supply and demand dynamics [3] - The gross profit margin for Shenghe Resources reached 8.42% in H1 2025, an increase of 6.95 percentage points year-on-year, with Q2 2025 gross profit margin at 8.84%, up 5.82 percentage points year-on-year [3] - The company is strengthening its rare earth industry chain layout through a diversified raw material supply assurance system, indicating potential for continued performance improvement [3] - CITIC Construction pointed out that the monetary easing from the Federal Reserve and domestic policies aimed at optimizing production factors are conducive to the upward transmission of metal prices to downstream sectors [3] - The valuation of the industrial metal sector is currently low, suggesting potential for upward correction [3] - The top ten weighted stocks in the CSI Rare Metal Theme Index account for 57.58% of the index, including companies like Northern Rare Earth, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Ganfeng Lithium [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent performance of the A-share market, highlighting the fluctuations in various sectors, particularly the rise in innovative pharmaceuticals and the impact of external factors like the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting. Group 1: Market Performance - On September 1, A-shares saw all three major indices rise, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.46%, the Shenzhen Component Index up by 1.05%, and the ChiNext Index up by 2.29% [11] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 27,780.05 billion yuan, a decrease of 525.87 billion yuan from the previous day [11] - Over 3,200 stocks in the market experienced gains, with 123 stocks hitting the daily limit up [11] Group 2: Sector Highlights - The innovative pharmaceutical sector continued to rise, with notable stocks like Maiwei Bio hitting the daily limit up [11][12] - The gold sector also performed well, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts and central bank gold purchases, with UBS raising its target price for gold to $3,600 per ounce for Q1 2026 [11] - The domestic chip sector saw a boost from Alibaba's AI chip news, leading to significant gains in related stocks [12] Group 3: Fund Flows - The Guangfa CSI Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF saw a net inflow of over 1 billion yuan in a single day [3] - The article notes a rotation of funds towards small-cap stocks, suggesting that after a period of high turnover, there may be opportunities for low-cost acquisitions in this segment [4][5] Group 4: Valuation Concerns - Concerns were raised regarding the TTM P/E ratio of the CSI 2000 index, which stands at 159 times, a record high, indicating potential overvaluation [5] - The article suggests that the market may have reached a phase of high turnover rates, which could lead to volatility or consolidation [5][6] Group 5: Institutional Activity - The article mentions that the main funds experienced a net outflow of 20.72 billion yuan, with the non-bank financial sector seeing the largest outflow [19] - The top sectors for net inflows included pharmaceuticals, communications, electronics, and non-ferrous metals [19] Group 6: Upcoming Events - The Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting is scheduled for September 16-17, with market participants closely watching for potential interest rate changes [4]

Core Viewpoint - The core PCE inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve has shown a moderate increase, stabilizing market expectations for a rate cut in the Fed's September meeting. The ongoing fallout from Trump's dismissal of Fed Governor Cook poses a significant threat to the Fed's independence, leading to a weaker dollar and enhancing the monetary attributes of gold and the financial attributes of copper. This situation is expected to push commodity prices to break previous highs, creating upward space for equity targets [1]. Industry Summary - The non-ferrous sector is experiencing a comprehensive bloom across various sub-sectors, driven by price increases that enhance EPS and improve sentiment, coupled with strategic positioning that elevates PE ratios [1]. - The recommendation is to actively participate in this sector as the dual impact of price-driven EPS growth and improved market sentiment is currently in motion [1].

Group 1 - The core inflation indicator favored by the Federal Reserve, core PCE, has shown a moderate increase, stabilizing market expectations for a rate cut in the Fed's September meeting [1] - The event of Trump firing Fed Governor Cook continues to unfold, posing a serious threat to the independence of the Federal Reserve [1] - The weakening of the US dollar has stimulated the monetary attributes of gold and the financial attributes of copper, with commodity prices nearing previous highs, thus opening up upward space for equity targets [1] Group 2 - The non-ferrous sector is experiencing a comprehensive blossoming across various sub-sectors, driven by price increases impacting EPS and improvements in sentiment, along with strategic positioning enhancing PE [1] - It is recommended to actively participate in the market [1]

Group 1: Market Performance - The non-ferrous metal sector has shown strong performance, with significant gains in stocks such as China Rare Earth, Jiangxi Copper, and Shenghe Resources [1][2] - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) experienced a nearly 3% increase, with a net subscription of 6.6 million units, indicating strong investor interest [1][2] Group 2: Industry Insights - Recent regulations on rare earth mining and separation have tightened supply controls, potentially driving up prices further, with North Rare Earth reporting a 1951.52% year-on-year increase in net profit [2][3] - The rise in rare earth prices reflects the effectiveness of supply management policies, suggesting a strategic value increase for the sector [3] Group 3: Gold Sector Performance - Shandong Gold and Western Gold reported significant profit increases, with Shandong Gold's net profit reaching 2.808 billion yuan, up 102.98%, and Western Gold's net profit at 154 million yuan, up 131.94% [3] - The easing geopolitical tensions and expectations of a more accommodative U.S. monetary policy are favorable for gold prices, enhancing its tactical investment appeal [3] Group 4: Future Outlook - The non-ferrous metal sector is expected to benefit from monetary easing and domestic production optimization efforts, which may enhance profitability across the supply chain [4] - The non-ferrous metal sector has attracted a net inflow of 4.478 billion yuan, leading among all industry sectors [5] Group 5: Investment Strategy - The non-ferrous metal ETF (159876) and its associated funds provide diversified exposure to various metals, including copper, aluminum, gold, rare earths, and lithium, which can mitigate investment risks [6]