申万宏源发布研报称，预计阳光保险(06963)25-27年归母净利润分别达57.34/60.56/67.88亿元(此前预计 25E为80.48亿元，调降预期主因为FVOCI股票占比较高)，同比+5.2%/+5.6%/+12.1%，结合绝对、相对 估值法测算公司价值为573亿元人民币，目标价5.35港元/股，维持"买入"评级。 持续增配股票，FVOCI股票占比超七成，CSM增速稳健，业绩稳定性优于同业 截至6月末，公司二级市场权益配置比例较24年末提升1.28pct至15.1%；其中股票配置水平在高于同业 的基础上持续提升，配置比例较2024年末+1.8pct至14.1%，分类为FVOCI的股票占比较24年末水平 +1.4pct至70.38%，显著高于同业。CSM稳步增长，截至24年末，CSMyoy+12.6%至509亿元，在部分同 业规模下降态势下增速稳健；CSM摊销速度稳定，2024年CSM摊销规模为40.56亿元，摊销比率为 8.45%，保险服务业绩基本盘稳固。 风险提示：长端利率下行、权益市场波动、大灾频发、监管政策影响超预期。 NBV增幅居前，银保渠道秉承高质量发展策略，优势有望持续显现 公司人身险业 ...

Core Viewpoint - The insurance industry is actively engaging in capital market activities, with investment scale surpassing 36 trillion yuan, driven by the need to enhance returns amid declining interest rates and to capitalize on market opportunities [1][9][41]. Group 1: Capital Market Activity - The capital market remains vibrant, benefiting insurance companies' performance, with a notable increase in investment scale to over 36 trillion yuan [1][9]. - Insurance companies have frequently engaged in actions such as increasing stakes, acquisitions, and share buybacks, with 31 instances of shareholding increases recorded in 2025 [19][20]. - In the first half of 2025, insurance companies increased their holdings in 548 companies while reducing stakes in 528 others, indicating active trading strategies [10][11]. Group 2: Investment Performance - In the first half of 2025, 73 life insurance companies reported a net profit of 18.58 billion yuan, marking a continuous increase over three years, attributed to rising investment income [2][9]. - The investment return rates for major insurance companies have shown variability, with China Life achieving a 3.56% return, while others like Ping An and New China Insurance reported 3.46% and 3.25% respectively [6][9]. Group 3: Product Development - The insurance sector is shifting towards promoting dividend insurance and other floating income products due to asymmetric reductions in preset interest rates [4][9]. - Traditional and dividend insurance products have seen their preset interest rates adjusted, with traditional insurance now at 2.0% and dividend insurance at 1.75% [4][9]. Group 4: Long-term Investment Strategies - Insurance companies are increasingly acquiring long-term rental apartments, with a total investment scale of 1,620 billion yuan approved for long-term investment trials [27][30]. - The establishment of rental housing funds, such as the 45 billion yuan fund focusing on first-tier cities, reflects a strategic shift towards stable rental income [28][29]. Group 5: Stock Investment Strategy - Insurance companies are focusing on increasing their holdings in FVOCI stocks to enhance dividend income and stabilize net investment returns amid declining interest rates [36][37]. - The proportion of dividend income in net investment returns has risen for major insurers, indicating a strategic pivot towards high-dividend stocks [38][41]. Group 6: Regulatory Environment - The regulatory body has approved multiple rounds of funding for long-term investments, with a total of over 1,600 billion yuan allocated to encourage insurance capital market participation [32][45].

Core Viewpoint - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of 40.9 billion yuan in H1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 6.9%, with a notable growth in new business value (NBV) of 20.3% to 28.5 billion yuan [1][2]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company reported a net profit of 40.9 billion yuan, up 6.9% year-on-year, and an NBV of 28.5 billion yuan, reflecting a 20.3% increase [1][2]. - The net and total investment returns were 2.78% and 3.29%, respectively, both showing a decline of 0.25 percentage points and 0.3 percentage points year-on-year [1][3]. - The proposed interim dividend is 0.238 yuan per share (before tax) [1]. Business Growth - The company experienced a slight increase in new single premiums, which rose by 0.6% to 161.3 billion yuan, primarily driven by a significant expansion in lump-sum premiums, which surged by 306.5% to 20 billion yuan [2]. - The NBV margin improved by 2.9 percentage points to 17.7%, benefiting from adjustments in the preset interest rate and the integration of insurance and banking services [2]. - The individual insurance channel saw an NBV increase of 9.5% to 24.3 billion yuan, despite a slight reduction in the number of agents [2]. Investment Strategy - The company's investment assets reached 7.13 trillion yuan by the end of H1 2025, marking a 7.8% increase from the previous year [3]. - The allocation to equity assets increased, with stocks rising by 1.12 percentage points to 8.7% and funds by 0.28 percentage points to 4.92%, totaling 13.62% [3]. - The proportion of FVOCI stocks significantly expanded, increasing by 11 percentage points to 23% within the equity allocation [4]. Future Outlook - The company adjusted its EPS forecasts for 2025-2027 to 3.04, 3.19, and 3.25 yuan, respectively, with a target price of 50.1 yuan for 2025, maintaining a "recommended" rating [4].