Core Points - The recent executive order signed by President Trump significantly reforms the H-1B visa program, imposing a $100,000 fee for applicants, which disrupts the previous expectations of companies and foreign talent [1][2] - The policy aims to prevent American companies from replacing local workers with cheaper foreign labor, emphasizing the original intent of the H-1B visa to attract scarce professional talent [2][3] Policy Implementation - The $100,000 fee shatters the myth of the H-1B visa as a "golden channel" for attracting global high-skilled labor, leading to urgent recalculations of labor costs across various sectors [2] - In the fiscal year ending September 2024, U.S. companies submitted over 480,000 H-1B applications, doubling from five years ago, but the approval rate is below 20% [2] Market Impact - Different types of companies face varying challenges; tech giants like Amazon, Google, and Microsoft are under pressure, while outsourcing firms like Tata Consultancy Services are severely impacted [2][4] - Amazon submitted 21,600 applications for the 2024 fiscal year, with over 95% of positions offering salaries below $225,000, which is seen as a critical threshold for the visa [2][3] - Microsoft and Google are diversifying their talent acquisition strategies, planning to expand their teams in Canada and Europe to mitigate the impact of the new visa policy [3] Startup Challenges - Startups and non-profit organizations face existential threats due to the new fee, which could consume a significant portion of their operational budgets [5] - Research indicates that over 20% of seed and angel-stage tech startups may abandon plans to hire foreign talent, potentially causing irreversible damage to the U.S. innovation ecosystem [5][6] Talent Shortages in Healthcare and Academia - Non-profit organizations and universities are also struggling with talent shortages, as the new fee is unaffordable for many, jeopardizing critical projects and services [6][7] - A significant percentage of university faculty and researchers are foreign-born, and the inability to renew H-1B visas could halt ongoing research projects [6] Business Community Reactions - Business leaders express mixed feelings about the new policy, with some viewing it as a way to ensure that H-1B visas are used for high-value positions, while others warn it could harm the U.S.'s international reputation and innovation [10][12] - Optimists see the policy as a means to better filter top talent, while pessimists fear it will lead to talent outflow and damage the innovation ecosystem [13]

Group 1 - The U.S. Department of Homeland Security announced plans to adjust the H-1B visa application process, introducing a weighted selection mechanism to prioritize applicants with higher skill levels and better salary offers [1] - The new rule aims to increase the chances of high-salary H-1B applicants being selected, thereby enhancing employers' opportunities to hire foreign talent for high-skill positions [1] - President Trump signed an announcement raising the fees for H-1B visa applicants to $100,000, emphasizing that this move is intended to ensure that only high-skilled, irreplaceable talent is brought into the U.S. [1] Group 2 - The increased fees are expected to impact major tech companies like Amazon, Microsoft, and Google, which have relied on the H-1B visa program to hire foreign employees, including software developers [2] - There are concerns that the new policy may backfire, potentially leading U.S. companies to relocate jobs overseas, particularly in research and development sectors, and could further reduce the number of international students wishing to study in the U.S. [2] - Additionally, Trump signed an executive order for a "Golden Card" program, allowing individuals with extraordinary abilities to expedite their visa process by paying $1 million or having a company sponsor them for $2 million [2]

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation is on a downward trend, increasing the likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates again in 2025, with core inflation expected to fall below 2% due to slowing wage growth and declining commodity prices [1] - Bridgewater Associates warns of high government debt in the US and UK, leading to economic strain and social polarization, with UK productivity stagnating since the mid-2000s [1] - Deutsche Bank strategists predict a continued weak dollar, as investors shift away from US assets amid a new easing cycle from the Federal Reserve and concerns over its independence [2] Group 2 - German manufacturing is facing challenges, with a decline in manufacturing PMI to 48.5 indicating increased contraction, despite a rise in services PMI to 52.5 [2] - Malaysia's fiscal deficit target for 2025 is expected to remain at 3.8%, benefiting from lower Brent crude prices and a stronger ringgit, with inflation expectations adjusted down to 1.5% [2] - The H-1B visa reform in the US may reduce the outflow of Indian talent, benefiting India's economy, but could also lead to decreased remittances from the US, putting downward pressure on the Indian rupee [3]