·我国8月PMI数据公布：制造业景气水平有所改善非制造业供需向好价格趋稳企业生产经营活动总体扩 张有所加快 ·上半年全市场上市公司实现营业收入35.01万亿元分红回购规模再创新高工业制造业绩回暖消费潜能持 续释放 ·2025年度中国电影总票房（含海外）突破400亿元国内市场总票房和观影人次均超去年同期 ·中国汽车流通协会数据显示，2025年8月中国汽车经销商库存预警指数为57.0%，同比上升0.8个百分 点，环比下降0.2个百分点。（新华财经） ·国家医保局数据显示，2025年1-7月职工医保个人账户共济人次2.31亿，金额304.57亿元。（新华财 经） ·《永久基本农田保护红线管理办法》将自2025年10月1日起施行。《办法》贯彻落实"坚持实行最严格 的耕地保护制度"的要求，对于永久基本农田划定、管控、保护、优化调整、质量建设等作出具体规 定；同时，将建立永久基本农田"优进劣出"的管理机制。《办法》首次在部门规章层面明确，县级以上 自然资源主管部门会同农业农村主管部门组织划定永久基本农田储备区，作为重大建设项目占用永久基 本农田和永久基本农田保护红线优化调整的主要补划来源。（新华社） ·8月我国制造业采购 ...

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has lowered its key policy interest rate by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut since April 2025, aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and supporting economic growth [1][2]. Economic Growth - The Central Bank forecasts a real GDP growth of 5.4% for Q2 2025, up from previous expectations, with an average growth rate of 4.5% for the fiscal year 2024/2025, compared to just 2.4% for 2023/2024 [1][2]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating improvements in the job market [1]. Inflation Data - The inflation rate for Q2 2025 has dropped to 15.2% from 16.5% in the previous quarter, with monthly deflation observed in July 2025 [2]. - The Central Bank predicts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, suggesting a downward trend in inflation expectations [2]. Monetary Policy - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee will reassess the pace and extent of monetary easing based on inflation forecasts and economic data at each meeting [2]. - The target average inflation rates are set at 7% for Q4 2026 and 5% for Q4 2028, indicating a long-term strategy for inflation control [2]. Recent Rate Cuts - The Central Bank has previously cut rates by 225 basis points in April 2025 and 100 basis points in May 2025, marking a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy following a period of tightening [4][5]. - The tightening cycle began in March 2022, with rates raised from 8.25% to 27.25% to combat rising inflation and currency depreciation [4].

Market Overview - The market experienced significant volatility due to multiple factors, including lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data for May, which increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Concurrently, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a global risk-off sentiment, leading to substantial price increases in commodities like gold and oil, while major global stock indices faced pressure [1] U.S. Stock Market Performance - All three major U.S. indices closed lower for the week, with the Dow Jones falling over 1% and the Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, declining even more, indicating cautious expectations for future growth [3] - Despite the decline in inflation potentially supporting asset valuations, hedge funds and institutional investors have not fully shifted to a bullish stance, instead adopting a more defensive approach amid rising oil and gold prices [3] - Notable tech giants such as Apple, Meta, and Amazon experienced pullbacks, reflecting profit-taking pressures after previous gains, while Tesla showed strength due to positive developments in AI and energy sectors [3] European Market Dynamics - The European market faced dual pressures from political uncertainty and macroeconomic slowdown, with the German DAX index dropping over 3% for the week, making it the worst performer among major global markets [3] - In contrast, the UK market remained relatively resilient, possibly due to stable fluctuations in the British pound and benefits to energy-related companies [3] Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices surged due to the escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts and uncertain supply outlooks, while gold reached a temporary high driven by safe-haven demand [4] - The rapid increase in commodity prices has not yet translated into higher PPI and CPI levels but is beginning to impact corporate cost structures, which could suppress corporate profits and consumer confidence if sustained [4] - The current market state should not be oversimplified as either "bearish" or "bullish," but rather viewed as a transitional phase where investors are cautious and awaiting clearer signals from macroeconomic and policy developments [4][5]

经济学家：通胀下行趋势确立，澳洲联储本月将大概率降息 金十数据5月1日讯，西太平洋银行高级经济学家指出，澳大利亚3月季度CPI数据所反映出的通胀下行 趋势，已基本锁定澳洲联储将在本月晚些时候降息。尽管当季CPI环比上涨0.9%，高于预期，但同比涨 幅为2.4%，低于澳洲联储2%-3%目标区间的中点。更重要的是核心通胀指标——这是澳洲联储更关注 的数据。虽然3月季度核心通胀年率为2.9%，但过去六个月的年化增速仅为2.5%，这一势头已足以促使 联储启动降息。 ...