美银策略师Michael Hartnett在其最新展望报告中表示，市场已开始为2026年经济的强劲增长提前布局。投资者普遍预期，降息、减税及关税削减 等措施将共同推动企业盈利加速上升。然而，该行的多空情绪指标现已升至8.5，触及风险资产的反向"卖出"信号，反映出当前市场情绪可能已过 度乐观，需警惕由此带来的调整风险。 资金流向凸显市场亢奋情绪。最新数据显示，全球股票单周流入规模达982亿美元，其中美股吸引779亿美元，创有记录以来第二大单周流入。与 此同时，资金从现金类资产大幅流出439亿美元，规模为今年4月以来最高。 Hartnett认为，在财政与货币双重宽松的预期下，明年市场上涨概率显著提升。美联储持续降息、新一轮"QE lite"政策推出以及CPI通胀持续回 落，共同为市场提供了支撑。但他同时警告，当前情绪已处于极度乐观区间，需警惕短期调整风险。 在配置建议上，他倾向于通过做多零息债券、中盘股、新兴市场股票来布局通胀下行趋势，而非简单追逐当前市场对风险资产的普遍看涨共识。 美股资金流入创纪录高位 当前市场正经历显著的资金再配置过程。股票市场成为资金主要流向，单周净流入规模达982亿美元，其中美股吸纳77 ...

通胀下行与经济上行并存的局面，增加了政策决策的复杂性。土耳其央行表示，在实现价格稳定之前，将持续保持紧缩的货币政策立场。 若通胀前景与中期目标出现显著偏离，土耳其央行将收紧货币政策立场。 此次土耳其央行降息150个基点，再次超出市场预期。此前市场普遍预计，土耳其央行此次将降息100个基点至38.5%。降息消息公布后， 土耳其里拉兑美元汇率创历史新低。 【导读】土耳其央行将一周回购利率下调至38%，超预期降息150个基点 中国基金报记者 晨曦 大家好！继续关注海外央行的最新消息。 12月11日，土耳其央行宣布，将政策利率（即一周回购利率）从39.5%降至38%，降息150个基点。 土耳其央行提到，继9月通胀上升之后，10月和11月通胀的潜在趋势略有下降。11月消费者通胀率低于预期，原因是食品价格意外下跌。 第三季度国内生产总值季度增长率高于预期。 版权声明 《中国基金报》对本平台所刊载的原创内容享有著作权，未经授权禁止转载，否则将追究法律责任。 授权转载合作联系人：于先生（电话：0755-82468670） 编辑：黄梅 校对：纪元 制作：小茉 审核：木鱼 宏观经济方面，近期土耳其统计局公布的数据显示，2025年 ...

似乎一夜之间，美联储官员关于12月是否降息的态度来了一个大转弯，市场对于美联储12月份降息的概率预测 达到9成以上。究竟是何原因，无非以下两个： 第二，通胀上行压力逐步缓解。此前阻碍美联储降息的核心顾虑是通胀粘性，但当前这一压力已明显减轻，为 降息提供了政策空间。截至 9 月，美国消费者价格指数(CPI)同比上涨 3.0%，核心个人消费支出(PCE)物价指数 维持在约 2.8%。尽管这两项数据距离美联储 2% 的长期通胀目标仍有差距，但纽约联储主席威廉姆斯的分析显 示，关税对 CPI 的贡献仅约 0.5 至 0.75 个百分点，且未出现第二轮传导效应，同时他预计通胀将在 2027 年回归 目标水平。通胀上行风险的减弱，打破了此前美联储在 "稳就业" 和 "控通胀" 之间的两难困境，使其能够将政 策重心更多放在应对经济下行风险上，为进一步降息扫清了关键障碍。 第一，劳动力市场疲软风险持续加剧，这是推动美联储倾向继续降息的核心动因之一。当前美国就业市场已显 现出明显的疲软迹象，失业率已攀升至 4.4%，创下 2021 年以来的最高水平。更关键的是，8 月非农就业人数被 大幅下修至负值，职位空缺数量不断回落，薪资增 ...

Group 1 - Eurozone inflation is on a downward trend, increasing the likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates again in 2025, with core inflation expected to fall below 2% due to slowing wage growth and declining commodity prices [1] - Bridgewater Associates warns of high government debt in the US and UK, leading to economic strain and social polarization, with UK productivity stagnating since the mid-2000s [1] - Deutsche Bank strategists predict a continued weak dollar, as investors shift away from US assets amid a new easing cycle from the Federal Reserve and concerns over its independence [2] Group 2 - German manufacturing is facing challenges, with a decline in manufacturing PMI to 48.5 indicating increased contraction, despite a rise in services PMI to 52.5 [2] - Malaysia's fiscal deficit target for 2025 is expected to remain at 3.8%, benefiting from lower Brent crude prices and a stronger ringgit, with inflation expectations adjusted down to 1.5% [2] - The H-1B visa reform in the US may reduce the outflow of Indian talent, benefiting India's economy, but could also lead to decreased remittances from the US, putting downward pressure on the Indian rupee [3]

Group 1 - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, and composite PMI output index was 50.5%, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity [1][1][1] - In the first half of the year, listed companies in China achieved operating income of 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%, and net profit of 3.00 trillion yuan, up 2.54% [1][1][1] - The film box office in China for the 2025 fiscal year has surpassed 40 billion yuan, with domestic box office reaching 39.23 billion yuan and over 909 million viewers, both exceeding last year's figures [1][1][1] Group 2 - The seventh China-Arab States Expo held in Ningxia attracted over 17,800 participants and resulted in 331 cooperation outcomes with an intended signing amount of 107.75 billion yuan [1][1][1] - The 15th China-Northeast Asia Expo concluded with participation from 20,733 guests from 45 countries and regions, showcasing over 70,000 brands [1][1][1] - The China Automobile Dealers Association reported that the inventory warning index for automobile dealers in August was 57.0%, a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points [1][1][1] Group 3 - High-frequency trading data indicates that hedge funds have net bought Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks, making China the largest market for net purchases by hedge funds in August [1][1][1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration reported that from January to July 2025, the number of personal account participants in employee medical insurance reached 231 million, with a total amount of 30.457 billion yuan [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has lowered its key policy interest rate by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut since April 2025, aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and supporting economic growth [1][2]. Economic Growth - The Central Bank forecasts a real GDP growth of 5.4% for Q2 2025, up from previous expectations, with an average growth rate of 4.5% for the fiscal year 2024/2025, compared to just 2.4% for 2023/2024 [1][2]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating improvements in the job market [1]. Inflation Data - The inflation rate for Q2 2025 has dropped to 15.2% from 16.5% in the previous quarter, with monthly deflation observed in July 2025 [2]. - The Central Bank predicts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, suggesting a downward trend in inflation expectations [2]. Monetary Policy - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee will reassess the pace and extent of monetary easing based on inflation forecasts and economic data at each meeting [2]. - The target average inflation rates are set at 7% for Q4 2026 and 5% for Q4 2028, indicating a long-term strategy for inflation control [2]. Recent Rate Cuts - The Central Bank has previously cut rates by 225 basis points in April 2025 and 100 basis points in May 2025, marking a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy following a period of tightening [4][5]. - The tightening cycle began in March 2022, with rates raised from 8.25% to 27.25% to combat rising inflation and currency depreciation [4].

Market Overview - The market experienced significant volatility due to multiple factors, including lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data for May, which increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Concurrently, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a global risk-off sentiment, leading to substantial price increases in commodities like gold and oil, while major global stock indices faced pressure [1] U.S. Stock Market Performance - All three major U.S. indices closed lower for the week, with the Dow Jones falling over 1% and the Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, declining even more, indicating cautious expectations for future growth [3] - Despite the decline in inflation potentially supporting asset valuations, hedge funds and institutional investors have not fully shifted to a bullish stance, instead adopting a more defensive approach amid rising oil and gold prices [3] - Notable tech giants such as Apple, Meta, and Amazon experienced pullbacks, reflecting profit-taking pressures after previous gains, while Tesla showed strength due to positive developments in AI and energy sectors [3] European Market Dynamics - The European market faced dual pressures from political uncertainty and macroeconomic slowdown, with the German DAX index dropping over 3% for the week, making it the worst performer among major global markets [3] - In contrast, the UK market remained relatively resilient, possibly due to stable fluctuations in the British pound and benefits to energy-related companies [3] Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices surged due to the escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts and uncertain supply outlooks, while gold reached a temporary high driven by safe-haven demand [4] - The rapid increase in commodity prices has not yet translated into higher PPI and CPI levels but is beginning to impact corporate cost structures, which could suppress corporate profits and consumer confidence if sustained [4] - The current market state should not be oversimplified as either "bearish" or "bullish," but rather viewed as a transitional phase where investors are cautious and awaiting clearer signals from macroeconomic and policy developments [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The downtrend in inflation in Australia is solidified, leading to a high probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowering interest rates this month [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Data**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the March quarter showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9%, which was above expectations. However, the year-on-year increase was 2.4%, below the midpoint of the RBA's target range of 2%-3% [1] - **Core Inflation**: The core inflation rate for the March quarter was reported at 2.9%. Notably, the annualized growth rate over the past six months was only 2.5%, indicating a trend that may prompt the RBA to initiate a rate cut [1]