Group 1 - Eurozone inflation is on a downward trend, increasing the likelihood of the European Central Bank (ECB) cutting interest rates again in 2025, with core inflation expected to fall below 2% due to slowing wage growth and declining commodity prices [1] - Bridgewater Associates warns of high government debt in the US and UK, leading to economic strain and social polarization, with UK productivity stagnating since the mid-2000s [1] - Deutsche Bank strategists predict a continued weak dollar, as investors shift away from US assets amid a new easing cycle from the Federal Reserve and concerns over its independence [2] Group 2 - German manufacturing is facing challenges, with a decline in manufacturing PMI to 48.5 indicating increased contraction, despite a rise in services PMI to 52.5 [2] - Malaysia's fiscal deficit target for 2025 is expected to remain at 3.8%, benefiting from lower Brent crude prices and a stronger ringgit, with inflation expectations adjusted down to 1.5% [2] - The H-1B visa reform in the US may reduce the outflow of Indian talent, benefiting India's economy, but could also lead to decreased remittances from the US, putting downward pressure on the Indian rupee [3]

Group 1 - In August, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.4%, non-manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, and composite PMI output index was 50.5%, indicating a slight recovery in economic activity [1][1][1] - In the first half of the year, listed companies in China achieved operating income of 35.01 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.16%, and net profit of 3.00 trillion yuan, up 2.54% [1][1][1] - The film box office in China for the 2025 fiscal year has surpassed 40 billion yuan, with domestic box office reaching 39.23 billion yuan and over 909 million viewers, both exceeding last year's figures [1][1][1] Group 2 - The seventh China-Arab States Expo held in Ningxia attracted over 17,800 participants and resulted in 331 cooperation outcomes with an intended signing amount of 107.75 billion yuan [1][1][1] - The 15th China-Northeast Asia Expo concluded with participation from 20,733 guests from 45 countries and regions, showcasing over 70,000 brands [1][1][1] - The China Automobile Dealers Association reported that the inventory warning index for automobile dealers in August was 57.0%, a year-on-year increase of 0.8 percentage points [1][1][1] Group 3 - High-frequency trading data indicates that hedge funds have net bought Chinese stocks at the fastest pace in seven weeks, making China the largest market for net purchases by hedge funds in August [1][1][1] - The National Healthcare Security Administration reported that from January to July 2025, the number of personal account participants in employee medical insurance reached 231 million, with a total amount of 30.457 billion yuan [1][1][1]

Core Viewpoint - The Central Bank of Egypt has lowered its key policy interest rate by 200 basis points, marking the third rate cut since April 2025, aimed at anchoring inflation expectations and supporting economic growth [1][2]. Economic Growth - The Central Bank forecasts a real GDP growth of 5.4% for Q2 2025, up from previous expectations, with an average growth rate of 4.5% for the fiscal year 2024/2025, compared to just 2.4% for 2023/2024 [1][2]. - The unemployment rate decreased from 6.3% in Q1 2025 to 6.1% in Q2 2025, indicating improvements in the job market [1]. Inflation Data - The inflation rate for Q2 2025 has dropped to 15.2% from 16.5% in the previous quarter, with monthly deflation observed in July 2025 [2]. - The Central Bank predicts an average inflation rate of 14% to 15% for the entire year of 2025, suggesting a downward trend in inflation expectations [2]. Monetary Policy - The Central Bank's monetary policy committee will reassess the pace and extent of monetary easing based on inflation forecasts and economic data at each meeting [2]. - The target average inflation rates are set at 7% for Q4 2026 and 5% for Q4 2028, indicating a long-term strategy for inflation control [2]. Recent Rate Cuts - The Central Bank has previously cut rates by 225 basis points in April 2025 and 100 basis points in May 2025, marking a shift to a more accommodative monetary policy following a period of tightening [4][5]. - The tightening cycle began in March 2022, with rates raised from 8.25% to 27.25% to combat rising inflation and currency depreciation [4].

Market Overview - The market experienced significant volatility due to multiple factors, including lower-than-expected U.S. inflation data for May, which increased bets on potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - Concurrently, escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East triggered a global risk-off sentiment, leading to substantial price increases in commodities like gold and oil, while major global stock indices faced pressure [1] U.S. Stock Market Performance - All three major U.S. indices closed lower for the week, with the Dow Jones falling over 1% and the Russell 2000 index, representing small-cap stocks, declining even more, indicating cautious expectations for future growth [3] - Despite the decline in inflation potentially supporting asset valuations, hedge funds and institutional investors have not fully shifted to a bullish stance, instead adopting a more defensive approach amid rising oil and gold prices [3] - Notable tech giants such as Apple, Meta, and Amazon experienced pullbacks, reflecting profit-taking pressures after previous gains, while Tesla showed strength due to positive developments in AI and energy sectors [3] European Market Dynamics - The European market faced dual pressures from political uncertainty and macroeconomic slowdown, with the German DAX index dropping over 3% for the week, making it the worst performer among major global markets [3] - In contrast, the UK market remained relatively resilient, possibly due to stable fluctuations in the British pound and benefits to energy-related companies [3] Commodity Market Trends - International oil prices surged due to the escalation of Middle Eastern conflicts and uncertain supply outlooks, while gold reached a temporary high driven by safe-haven demand [4] - The rapid increase in commodity prices has not yet translated into higher PPI and CPI levels but is beginning to impact corporate cost structures, which could suppress corporate profits and consumer confidence if sustained [4] - The current market state should not be oversimplified as either "bearish" or "bullish," but rather viewed as a transitional phase where investors are cautious and awaiting clearer signals from macroeconomic and policy developments [4][5]

Core Viewpoint - The downtrend in inflation in Australia is solidified, leading to a high probability of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) lowering interest rates this month [1] Summary by Relevant Sections - **Inflation Data**: The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the March quarter showed a quarter-on-quarter increase of 0.9%, which was above expectations. However, the year-on-year increase was 2.4%, below the midpoint of the RBA's target range of 2%-3% [1] - **Core Inflation**: The core inflation rate for the March quarter was reported at 2.9%. Notably, the annualized growth rate over the past six months was only 2.5%, indicating a trend that may prompt the RBA to initiate a rate cut [1]