小时候很喜欢看一些成功学、讲商业讲人性的公众号，并且经常分享给大喵。直到大喵和我说：卖课程给想成功的你更容易成功，做加盟品牌讲故事骗加盟商比参与加盟更容易成功渐渐我发现他们所谓的一人公司，不约而同地是教人怎么成为博主，怎么做号，也就是所谓的 IP 孵化。祛魅后，我发现写公众号卖课的博主，能做的唯一一件事也就是能卖课了经济下行期，卖课、自我提升，都是人为自己的无能为力寻找的安慰剂，其实和算命、疗愈之类的没有太大区别 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Buy" with a target price of HKD 410.00 for the company [1]. Core Insights - Recent market expectations for the company have been influenced by short-term high-frequency tracking data, leading to concerns about IP popularity and sustainable performance growth. However, the company's Q4 domestic and overseas performance shows strong resilience, supported by its IP matrix after the sales peak of Labubu 3.0. The report identifies three potential discrepancies in market expectations: comprehensive judgment of high-frequency data, growth potential of new IPs, and the potential of content and IP ecosystem layout [1]. Summary by Sections Q4 Overseas Market Performance - The report anticipates that Q4 overseas performance, particularly in North America, will exceed market pessimism. Despite a projected 10% decline in Tik Tok sales in Q4, improved inventory levels in stores are expected to enhance offline sales significantly compared to Q3. In Southeast Asia, while some countries saw a year-on-year decline in sales, this is attributed to natural channel structure changes, with strong growth anticipated in overall channel sales [2][3]. New IP Growth Potential - The report highlights that the diversification of IPs in Q4 has been successful, with new IPs like Star People and Crybaby gaining traction, reducing the sales share of Labubu. In Southeast Asia, the sales share of Labubu has dropped below 40%, with new IPs collectively accounting for over 50% in some markets. The report suggests that the company's channel layout in domestic and Southeast Asian markets is robust, allowing for the transmission of popularity from established to emerging IPs [3][4]. Ecosystem Development and Content Layout - The company's IP content layout is entering a practical implementation phase, with plans for animated shorts and potential feature films to enhance IP influence. The report draws parallels with the success of Sanrio's Hello Kitty in leveraging content to boost brand recognition and sales. The content strategy is expected to become a new tool for breaking into broader markets, complementing existing strengths in product offerings and fan engagement [4][5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The report maintains profit forecasts, projecting adjusted net profits of RMB 135 billion, 185 billion, and 237 billion for 2025-2027. The target price is based on a PE ratio of 27x for 2026, reflecting the company's high barriers to entry and ongoing diversification of IP and business models [5].

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenue for Q4 FY2025 reached RMB 617.8 million, with a net income of RMB 108 million, resulting in a net profit margin of 17.5% [18][19] - Sales and marketing expenses improved significantly to 47.6% of revenue from 69.2% in the previous quarter [19] - Gross profit for the quarter was RMB 467.6 million, with a gross margin of 75.7%, down from 85.9% in the same period last year [21] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - Revenue from the property business totaled RMB 65.8 million, accounting for 10.6% of total revenue, indicating its growing significance [20] - Individual online learning services generated revenues of RMB 456.9 million, down from RMB 906.7 million in Q4 FY2024, primarily due to decreases in skills upgrading and financial literacy courses [20] - Revenues from enterprise services were RMB 35.7 million, down from RMB 56.6 million a year ago, due to a reduction in marketing services [20] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company held over RMB 1 billion in cash and cash equivalents, providing a strong foundation for its transition into the property business [6] - Online GMV exceeded RMB 18 million in August, which is over nine times that of April [10] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company is restructuring to divest all non-property businesses to focus exclusively on its high-growth property business [4][5] - The strategy includes strengthening IP creation, driving agile execution, and delivering sustainable returns to shareholders [15][16] - The company aims to capitalize on the cultural transformation driven by young, digitally savvy consumers seeking emotional connections and unique collectible experiences [6] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in the growth potential of the property market and the company's ability to scale its IP portfolio and expand internationally [24][25] - The company expects revenues from the property business to be in the range of RMB 100 million-RMB 110 million for Q1 FY2026 and RMB 750 million-RMB 800 million for the full fiscal year 2026 [24][25] Other Important Information - The company has established a joint venture with Juehua Entertainment to leverage cross-industry resources for IP promotion and user engagement [54][55] - The company plans to open three to five flagship stores by the end of the year, enhancing its offline presence [13][38] Q&A Session Summary Question: Recent revenue run rate and confirmed order backlog - Management noted that Wakuku's growth has been explosive, with monthly production capacity reaching approximately 20 times the level at the beginning of the year, and confirmed order backlog is significant with a delivery rate of less than 50% [29][30] Question: Details on Last One's equity arrangements - The acquisition of Last One's remaining equity is in the settlement process, with approximately 60% paid in newly issued shares and 40% as long-term incentives vesting over eight years [32][33] Question: Revenue guidance and toy revenue surpassing education business - Management stated that guidance for FY2025 and FY2026 was based on a prudent assessment of market conditions, with expectations for continued growth driven by strong product performance and channel expansion [36][38] Question: Pipeline for new product categories - The company has a structured roadmap for IP launches and is exploring new product categories, including smaller figures and plush products, set to debut in Q4 [50][51] Question: Collaboration with Juehua Entertainment - The joint venture with Juehua Entertainment focuses on IP design and supply chain support, aiming to develop new IPs that leverage both companies' strengths [54][55]